almagest

If Caleb starts off well next year I'd say go all in. That might also be when I pick one up. I'm also gonna get a Murakami jersey even though it's probably a bad idea, but I also bought a Carlos Quentin jersey right before he broke his hand, so I'm used to it.

I got my son one in 23. Luckily he'll outgrow it soon like he did with his Lauri Markkanen jersey

Didn’t want to start a new post just for this, and this felt like the best existing post

Average WAR for the 10th pick in the draft is ~5.5. Clayton had 19.5 bWAR/18.2 fWAR. He would be a great outcome for Carlson.

If the median outcome is Royce Clayton that's a pretty good trade chip, or super utility defense guy. I'd be content with that outcome.

He was putrid hitting on the White Sox but still had value because of his defense. Still don't like getting rid of Valentin for him, even though Valentin was just about done.

It's really hard to fix, as you're rebuilding a significant timing mechanism in their swing. Burger had the same issue but he made it work for a while. I think big leg kicks are hard to fix for a similar reason. Dansby Swanson is a comp for Carlson on the high end and I wouldn't mind that at all.

Or you just keep him. Not like he's blocking anyone and I'd be surprised if they get 1.5 WAR from their center field options now. Or you just buy him out and try to resign him on a prove it deal to make it more attractive at the deadline, or let him go be someone else's problem.

I'll gladly eat my words if Acuna figures out how to hit, but the org is absolutely not in a better place with a guy who can't hit in AAA and a bullpen arm with control issues in A ball.

I'd rather them pay the $2 mil. These guys are likely just 40 man dead weight.

No idea why you pick up the option if this is the return. A best-case bullpen guy and a 4th outfielder? Bleh.

You need a good head coach, good coaching staff and a franchise QB to keep sustained success in the NFL. It looks like we have them now. I like our odds to sustain continued success.

Yup. I misread the trade savings on OTC. I’d take a 4th rounder to save some $. Rome, Burden, Loveland and Kmet are enough, and I think Jahdae Walker is worth keeping around.

I’m not cutting him either, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears take a running back and cut him. Ben Johnson already did that in Detroit.

They can probably push some of Sweat's money next year into 2027. He'll likely still be here and still be reasonably effective. They can do the same with DJ but I don't know if I want an older WR to be a big cap hit if cut. I'd probably just eat one more year with him and then move on. They could push some of Odeyingbo's cap hit to 2027, but who knows if he recovers from his injury, so he's probably best left alone and cut in 2027. They could push some of JJ's money into 2027 too. Cutting Edmunds saves $15 million, so you'll likely see that. Cutting Swift saves $7.5 million - if they draft an RB this might happen.

Yeah, I was misreading that. He's here for another year.

I like DJ. He dogs it on way too many plays though. It's been an issue all year and it bit him big time in a huge moment tonight. I'm guessing he's traded this offseason. Probably won't get a ton for him but they'd open up $20 million for other areas.

CJ Stroud said "intercept my beer"

Until they actually sign him I'm not going to worry about this.

The point is that baseball is a zero sum game when it comes to players. If more teams actually spent money on free agents then you wouldn’t have this problem. 20 of 30 teams have a payroll below $200 million. 7 below $100. There’s easily a billion dollars per year in potential salary pool to pry these guys away from LA. And if these other teams truly can’t afford to sign an Ohtani or Tucker away from LA, even with potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue sharing money per year, then they’re clearly terrible business people and should be forced to sell.

I'll need a better source than "probably" on that number, because that would mean the teams around the median are pulling in ~$312 million local revenue (and getting it all back). If you add national broadcast revenue per team ($60 million in 2022, probably more now), competitive balance money (if they qualify), and whatever other revenue sources they have, you're looking at over $400 million in revenue. Easily enough to afford a payroll at the luxury tax if not higher.

But they are paying 48%. $200 million of their TV revenue deal is subject to the deal, as you mentioned, so $96 million there. They're also chipping in ~$160 million of their ticket revenue (looks like they pulled in ~$350 million in ticket sales). So $256 million (minus various costs that every team can take out) into the pool, and there's no way 3.3% of the pool is anywhere near that much. They're also sending $150 million+ this year in luxury tax, so the Dodgers are paying $350 billion+ to the other teams.

They are getting the same 3.3% everyone else is, but they're still paying out way more, even with some of the exemptions they have.