Kenny Hates Prospects

Viciedo offensively could be basically Alexei in his first year but with a lot more power. I actually kind of like the idea of Derek Lee + Viciedo + Matsui at say $14M combined or less and all (except Viciedo) on short-term deals. I was thinking well before this offseason that Paulie would have to sign in the $8-9M per range because the market had kind of corrected itself, but with it looking like $12M per is a certainly and $13-15M per is a possibility, I'm not really going to get all too excited about bringing back Paulie. If it's a 1-year deal fine, but it won't be and he'll probably get 3 years guaranteed. I don't really want that at all to be honest, although it could work. With the market being crazy again we should see if we can eat a couple mil on each of Teahen and Linebrink's deals and spin them off for nothing in return. And maybe we could just give Pierre away also if we sent the Dodgers cash with him. I can't believe the Giants gave that money to Tejada, and I can't believe the Tigers gave that money to Peralta and Benoit, so maybe there's hope for us yet.

Adam Dunn plays first like he has a beer in his hand and he doesn't want to spill it. He's a defensive girly-man, and at $15M per I laugh in his ugly face and either go after Jayson Werth who at a higher price is still a better value OR I go lower and look at a bargain veteran on a short-term deal.

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Nov 30, 2010 -> 01:25 AM) Fowler was rated ahead of Gordon in various publications (i.e. BA) before they lost their prospect status in 2009. He's supremely talented. Let's not pick apart a player's splits after less than 2 years in the bigs at age 23 and 24. Kind of silly. Especially when that split you are using improved greatly from his rookie year to his second year (K rate away from home). You're right about improving the K rate away last year. Jesus though, those away numbers are still terrible. And who cares about what these various publications may have said? Beckham got very little love until he got here. Now that we all can see him play we can make up our own minds about him.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 30, 2010 -> 12:27 AM) I really don't think you can justify making room for offense by getting rid of offense. If the Sox are going to free up money to bring in both Dunn and Konerko, then the Sox will trade a starting pitcher. Viciedo or Quentin are both certainly possibilities to be traded, but you can't trade both. If you sign Dunn you can't play Q at DH, and Q in RF isn't working anymore. If you sign PK you can't play Viciedo at 1B, and you're not going to play him at 3B over Omar and Morel IMO. Assuming both are 3-year deals or longer, keeping Dayan doesn't make sense because you don't have a spot for him without attempting to convert him to an OF - something the Sox may be reluctant to do. BTW CQ isn't guaranteed offense. You know that, right? Even when he's healthy and on fire he's still prone to major slumps that seem to go on and on and on. For a guy who sucks at defense, that really hurts. If the idea is to make a charge in 2011 and then either reload or re-sign in 2012 depending on the outcome - and I think that's probably the plan here - then you may very well want to have a bit more confidence in your key offensive cogs. Especially when they're also taking up about $6M or so in payroll. And the last thing this team needs to do is trade pitching.

AJ had a horrible first month. This happens. AJ's horrible first month should be taken the same way PK's career year should be taken. PK shouldn't be signed with the expectation of him replicating that 2010 season and AJ shouldn't be signed with the expectation of him repeating his horrible March/April. AJ finished very strong and played a full season. AJ's durability is not a question. Yorvit Torrealba OTOH is a part time player who had two decent part-time seasons in the National League and here you are attempting to put him on similar footing as AJ. It's ridiculous and I don't even know what else to say about that. The Buck contract is easily justified. He's paid $6M per for his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons. His ceiling he showed off in Toronto (remember he was once a highly touted prospect and the supposed future in KC after the Beltran deal) and if he were to recreate that 2010 season 3 times over in Florida then he'd basically be getting paid half of what he's actually worth, making him a huge bargain. The downside is that he's a good defensive catcher with a rep of being able to handle a young pitching staff, plus he's durable, and if nothing else he's a legitimate power threat. He's probably worth $3-4M alone as a starting C apart from his Toronto season, and that Toronto season made him more expensive. But that season isn't the whole reason he signed that contract either. Konerko's contract will be based on his history of being Paul Konerko. Aubrey Huff had great seasons in 2002-2004 and then did it again in 2008 and 2010. I think that's a bad deal IMO, but it's not like he's never done big things before, and when he wasn't doing great things he was still being mediocre. It's not like he spent his life in the minor leagues and I think you need to check over his numbers again. But yeah, I don't like that signing either. I never made any fountain of youth argument. That's you. I'm saying there's no reason to say that he's automatically going to suck because he turned 34. That's f***ing retarded. Forget that bad luck s***, doesn't work with me, Where are the signs of breaking down? This is more garbage from people who are so obsessed with speculative stats and trends that they can't ever put anything into its proper context. If AJ shows an injury history, then he's an injury risk. Carlton Fisk caught about 70 bazillion baseball games. Other guys broke down early. Take an average of any two players' careers and that has zero bearing on AJ. AJ caught a lot of games last year - 128 to be exact - just like he always has done, and he did it while finishing very strong. Look at his monthly splits. The best months of his season, and they were terrific, were August through the end of the year. Again, he finished very strong. Again, I already explained the numbers drop. Look at the first month of the season. Then look at the rest of his numbers. Omit his March/April and he's right where he always is. There isn't any f***ing mystery here. What I read (albeit from MLBTR) is that they want Torrealba to mentor Teagarden and Ramirez. If they think he can be a starting catcher then that's great, maybe he can. But if they're getting a starting catcher then they're getting him a lot cheaper than a legitimate starting catcher's price. They're paying a high price for a backup/part timer though if that's what they're doing. I don't know why they'd see him as a starter though, unless they're just trying to save their money for pitching figuring they've already got enough offense as it is. Ugh, slow starts are normal. If your main concern re: AJ is durability then you don't look at him when he's fresh in April and shout "SIGNS OF DECLINE!!!!" from the rooftops, you look at how he progresses as the year goes on. He got better as his workload increased, and at the end, when he should have been tired, he had the best months of his season. BS. AJ is 34 and there aren't going to be many if any teams looking at him as a starter? You have no idea what you're talking about. If you're so confident then let's do a sig bet. You say it'll be closer to 3-5M than 7. I say he'll get at least 5 and at least 2 years. If you win, you control my sig. I win and I control yours. Deal?

I like Fowler but IMO a spot-patch mostly defensive CF/RF + Floyd is a ton more valuable to us than Fowler + a sport-patch SP. Stewart is a complete waste though. Beckham is also a much better hitting prospect than Fowler so it makes sense that he'd be seen as a lot more valuable. As far as Fowler's numbers away from Coors it's hard to blame the park for that. Looking at his splits the one thing that sticks out waaay more than anything else is the home vs. road K rates. At home he K's at a rate of once every 5.7 PA, while on the road he K's once every 3.9 PA. His BB rate is very close though, and IMO the hitting thing doesn't matter a whole lot because equaling out that K rate would completely turn around the AVG and SLG totals. The added power Coors can supply isn't as huge of a factor either since Fowler isn't really a home run kind of hitter. But that K rate away from home is pretty nasty. I guess you can speculate a lot on it but it's not really good either way. Maybe it means it's something mental, or something to do with traveling/preparation on the road, or but my guess would be that the ball breaks more away from Coors and he isn't a good enough breaking ball hitter to deal with that. Look at Ian Stewart's career splits and it's the same thing, he just can't make contact away from Coors. OTOH look at Brad Hawpe's career splits and the contact rate is about the same, and CarGon's road contact rate is pretty close with a slight dip on the road, which is normal. But either way there's reason for concern with Fowler especially as a centerpiece in a Floyd deal. I'd love him as part of a deal for a lesser player or for some prospects or something, but not a chance in hell I'm trading Floyd or Danks for him. Especially not now when we've got a murderers row of a rotation. I think we should keep 'em all, 1-6, and still consider bringing back Freddy as insurance.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 11:22 PM) If AJ were valuable he'd have a deal already like several other free agent catchers. Right. If Werth were valuable he'd have a deal already like Coco Crisp. If Lee were valuable he'd have a deal already like Garland. See how faulty this logic is?

I actually like Fowler but if Kenny makes that deal he needs to be replaced. Teahen and Pierre last year plus Ian Stewart as a key component of a Floyd deal is just way too much. Gavin Floyd is a very good pitcher during the regular season and he's also the kind of guy that can get hot in the playoffs and outpitch anyone in baseball. You don't trade a guy like that for Ian f***ing Stewart, and Fowler doesn't help anything unless we're f***ing rebuilding. If Kenny makes this deal I'm changing my name to either Kenny Hates His Own Players or Kenny Hates His Job.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 10:43 PM) Kalapse's payroll source is your friend. Tell me how in the hell we're going to be able to resign PK AND sign Dunn without cutting payroll with all the committed money and arb raises that are due without cutting salary somewhere else? We should have the funds to do that but it would mean changes elsewhere. Like, Dunn + PK could mean Quentin is gone ($6M or so in arb?) and Viciedo ($2M IIRC) is used in a trade. Let's say we pick up a cheap RF or CF at the minimum plus we get a reliever at the minimum for Quentin + Viciedo, and say we get PK + Dunn at about $25M combined per season, then we've added about $18M to the payroll while addressing 1B (need area), DH and lefty bat (need area), OF defense (need area), and the bullpen (need area). That would probably cap the offseason minus a bad contract swap of FA bargain kind of thing.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 10:22 PM) "Signing him for his age 34 and 35 seasons with an option (possibly vesting) for his age 36 season is not necessarily a bad deal at all" So you're allowed to consider him contractually at 35 or even 36, but I reference that age and you kill me. BTW, Heyman just tweeted the Sox would love to have AJ back, but at a reduced salary. There's a big difference between a 34-year-old catcher on a 1-year deal and a 35-year-old catcher on a 1-year deal, and there's a huge difference between guaranteeing money to a catcher in his age 34-35 seasons and guaranteeing money to a catcher in his age 35-36 seasons. And the difference is even larger than that in a 3-year deal because then you're replacing an age 34 season with an age 37 season. You weren't "referencing" an age either, you were making a false claim that if were true would make AJ less valuable than he actually is.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 08:59 PM) "AJ's career speaks for itself. BTW after AJ's March/April of .169/.229/.200/.429 he hit .286/.311/.462/.773 for the rest of the season, which is right around his career line of .284/.324/.424/.748. AJ had a horrible start that brought his numbers way down, that's it." A 35 year old catcher's career rarely speaks for itself in securing a new contract. It's about projecting future production and AJ's isn't looking like it used to. This post is a bucket of suck. AJ is 34 next year, not 35. That immediately shows how much thought you've put into your argument. Career performance is ALWAYS the first thing that matters in a contract. The known commodity always matters, especially to contenders. Why the f*** do you think Ben Sheets got all that money from the A's and Harden got all that cash from Texas? Why did Wang get money from the Nats? Why did Nick Johnson get that cash last year from the Yankees? None of those guys were safe bets to do anything, and none of them did anything, but they got that money because of what they can do which is based upon what they have done in the past. AJ has shown no signs of slowing down and at 34 next year he shouldn't be expected to given his track record. Signing him for his age 34 and 35 seasons with an option (possibly vesting) for his age 36 season is not necessarily a bad deal at all. IMO he'll get offered that.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) So a player who put up an OPS better than AJ did last year... The world does not revolve around OPS and FA contracts aren't given out simply because of a previous year's performance. Torrealba has put up good numbers the last two years, but that's in 605 total PA. AJ's career stands on its own. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) ...in a worse hitters environment... This argument is supposed to apply to power hitters which Torrealba is not. Big parks like PetCo can turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, especially when visiting teams that are built for smaller parks with less emphasis on defense come to town. It hurts players like Paulie for instance who don't have massive AGon power by taking away homers and turning them into doubles and triples, but that's not Yorvit's game. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) ...who is generally considered to be a pretty good developer and handler of not only other young catchers but of young pitching staffs too... This is what got him that money IMO. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) ...gets less over a 2 year contract than AJ would have in a 1 year contract, and you still think NOT offering arbitration was a mistake? Yes, because Torrealba is a backup/part time catcher and $3M + $3.5M is a lot of money for that kind of player. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) If anything, this pretty much confirms what the Sox and everyone else believed in that teams aren't going to spend out the wazoo to get mediocre catchers. IMO that is spending up the wazoo on a mediocre catcher - actually, less than mediocre. Buck is a mediocre catcher and he got $3/18M, although he is coming off a nice season. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) If the Sox want AJ back, they can bring him back at the $7-8 mill over 2 years, and if he doesn't accept it, then they can find someone else. Why the f*** would he accept a tad more than Torrealba and a ton less than Buck? His agent isn't a moron. AJ's career speaks for itself. BTW after AJ's March/April of .169/.229/.200/.429 he hit .286/.311/.462/.773 for the rest of the season, which is right around his career line of .284/.324/.424/.748. AJ had a horrible start that brought his numbers way down, that's it. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) AJ is running out of options already considering the main two spots I figured he'd be interested in were Texas and Florida, and they both filled their vacancies almost immediately. Maybe the Marlins think Buck will do what he did in Toronto over the course of his contract? If so then Buck is definitely the better player and it's great low cost signing by Florida. And perhaps AJ wanted a starting job, not a part time mentoring job like Texas apparently was looking for.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 29, 2010 -> 06:26 PM) I'm pretty happy with Gordo, to be honest. Certainly he has struggled a bit more than we anticipated, but I would rather have a MI with his capabilities offensively than an OF, even though Rasmus's ceiling from a pure hitting standpoint may be a bit higher. I'd keep Gordo. I like Gordon's offensive ceiling over Rasmus' offensive ceiling, but if I thought otherwise I'd much rather have the CF over the 2B. I think in a great offense Gordon can be a true, ideal #3 type hitter and Rasmus is probably more of a #5/#6 guy. I can't see a trade coming together as I couldn't see either side looking at the deal and saying "we're the clear winner here," and I think that's the kind of deal either side has to make in order to trade such a young, talented, and cheap player who is under control for so long. I also don't buy all the talk about a huge rift between Rasmus and LaRussa. I think that's probably way overblown, and if anything, it's probably more LaRussa's fault since he's an assbag on his own.

Congrats to Juan "Don't Tell Me What You Hit Tell Me When You Hit It" Uribe. The only good news for the Dodgers re: that contract IMO is that the overall weakness of the NL West should have them in contention every year of his deal, and when Juan's team is in contention he goes all out. If however the Dodgers have a year where they fall out then Uribe will take the year off and hotdog it, and the deal will look horrible. But yeah, this is great for Juan and potentially Brent Lillibridge and Eduardo Escobar's trade value. Maybe a package of the two of them could net us a nice reliever or something.

QUOTE (PMD @ Nov 28, 2010 -> 03:21 PM) Amen and amen to everyone sticking up for AJ! Thank you kind sir. QUOTE (Tex @ Nov 28, 2010 -> 04:56 PM) I'll wait and see who we have starting. But I'm guessing we're going to take a step down at this position, but the club will make more money. I really hope you're wrong. If we're going to take a step back, let's do it in 2012 if we blow it in 2011 and are forced to reload. Let's not do it now. This may be our last shot at a title for the next few years. Some of the comments on the board may make it seem like a dominant starting rotation is simple to put together, but this is the most talented group of starters I've ever seen in my life as a Sox fan. It's not often you get this kind of raw talent and potential on one staff.

Journeyman backup/platoon catcher Yorvit Torrealba gets $6.25M guaranteed over 2 years. Still think not offering arb to AJ was a dumb move, especially since the no draft pick cost will just raise his market price. Now the Sox risk goes up from a potential overpayment on a 1-year deal to a lesser overpayment on a 2-3 year deal. Maybe the SoxTalk sources are right and the Sox really don't want him back, and the no arb offer was meant as a nice gesture that will increase his next contract amount and also give them a good excuse for not bringing him back. If that's the case I'm not happy, and Kenny better have something better up his sleeve than Tyler Flowers.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Nov 26, 2010 -> 02:55 PM) If Peavy isn't ready to go and you put Sale in the rotation too, that gives you 4 lefties in the rotation. Not so bad against Minnesota, but I'm not so sure that I want that against everyone else. If you trade Floyd and not Danks, with Sale, yeah that is four lefties. I used to really hate that idea but I think it's all about quality. There are teams out there (*cough* Rays *cough*) that could stand there flailing away at LHP for months at a time as long as the players you're running out there are quality, and those would be four very high quality lefties.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 26, 2010 -> 02:56 PM) I wonder if Jon Daniels would be a bit hesitant to make a trade like that again after the McCarthy/Danks fiasco... IMO that would be a lot of value, but that's what you need for Danks/Floyd. Trading Smoak for a rental of Lee makes me think Daniels would think about another big trade - and I imagine the only potential deal breaker would be Holland who is just a great looking young pitcher IMO. But they just signed Loux, they just keep pumping money into that farm system, and now they've got an owner that wants to spend on the MLB team too. If there's any time to make a splash it's this offseason following their first ever WS appearance.

I really want no part of Ian Stewart at all. I'm sure the part about the Sox liking him is true though since they also loved Josh Fields. If Ian Stewart were here I think the entire board would hate him. He's 26 next year and he's arb-eligible which for him means he's fast approaching nontender status. This is a .239/.317/.454/.770 hitter away from Coors in the National League, and he's not even good in Coors either. NO MORE TEAHENS KENNY!!!!

I like Fowler but if we're going to trade one of Floyd/Danks we should look at a deal with Texas with Holland as a centerpiece (I love that kid) plus Moreland who looks like he may be another solid player, overachiever type, and then another piece or two depending on what it is (i.e. prospect, spare part, etc). I think Holland's ceiling is very high and I think he could be available in the right deal should the Rangers miss out on Lee. I'm also a Borbon fan, but I wouldn't want him as a centerpiece. If a Danks/Floyd + prospect for Holland, Moreland, and Borbon deal could be done I might just do it, considering Borbon would replace Pierre (and be a better player IMO over the long haul) which could allow us to dump that contract if anyone wanted him, plus we'd fill the rotation hole immediately with an already MLB-ready lefty with a high ceiling, and Moreland at worst would be competition or a platoon partner to Viciedo at 1B. Then we'd have more cash to throw around, say at Dunn for DH and (yeah I know I'm dreaming) Werth! for RF.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 24, 2010 -> 12:15 AM) There are a lot of information available that's not always for immediate general dissemination. If information ever becomes available for release, believe me, you'll hear it here on Soxtalk first. I'd like to believe this, but I've seen too much info here that I would never have run with if I were in position to. Even if I believed my source. Also, a few hits here and there does not mean a free pass to cover all the misses. I know you guys all trust your sources and you're all good people and you all probably think I'm being a c*** about it, but people are going to question a lot of this stuff. Like the AJ thing that started all this, about how he's such a bad person. Still don't believe that. Steve's quoting of MB on AJ earlier in the thread may even for all we know be a bunch of lies put out there to make it seem like there's chemistry when there is none, but to me that would be a theory based on nothing. Most people are going to find it hard to trust a claim from an unidentified source when there's a public quote from a player sitting right there that appears to refute it. And BTW this is coming from someone who believes JFK was shot by members of a shadow government and also that UFOs are out there flying around and s***.

Man, they don't like YASNY in that piece. And looking back Uncle Bud's quote is great, "This isn't journalism's finest hour. Some people ought to be ashamed." f*** that guy.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 24, 2010 -> 12:03 AM) At the top right of every thread: A white box on the rop right of the thread has Options on it. Then, select Display Modes - Standard. It doesn't work!!!!!!!!

Here you go people, the article in question: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/sear...=clnk&gl=us I need to go to bed, or at least find something better to do. This s*** is stupid lol. Please make a trade Kenny.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 23, 2010 -> 11:52 PM) Change the view format to standard. How do I do that? I don't know jack s*** about computers/internets. I can't even post videos in threads.