Kenny Hates Prospects

Yeah, its never happening, but I'd like it to.

Going off my above trade proposal, here's my ideal offseason completed. Trade Viciedo + Quentin (about $6M) to the Rays for Garza (about $6M) Trade Buehrle + Teahen ($18.75M) to the Mets for Beltran + Parnell ($18.95M) Sign Wood 2/$17M ($6.5M in 2011, $8M in 2012, $8M in 2013 or $1.5M buyout) Sign Jones 1 year, $3M L Pierre LF R Ramirez SS R Rios CF L Dunn DH R Konerko 1B S Beltran RF R Beckham 2B L Pierzynski C R Morel 3B R Peavy L Danks R Floyd R Garza R Jackson R Wood CL L Thornton SU R Santos SU L Sale SU R Parnell MR R Infante RSP R Pena LR R Castro C S Vizquel 3B, 2B, SS R Lillibridge SS, 3B, 2B, CF, LF R Jones OF/DH This has us below $130M in payroll. We could conceivably be the best team in baseball.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 12:35 PM) For what it's worth...Garza is a 2nd year arb-eligible player, coming off a $3.35 million deal this year, which means, I think, he's probably somewhere in the $7-$8 million range, maybe a little more, next year. Basically, a very similar number to what Danks is likely to get. Therefore, unless the starter you trade is Peavy (hurt) or Buehrle (NTC), you really don't realize any payroll savings by dealing for Matt Garza and then trading away a starter. In fact, if Floyd is the starter you trade, it hurts your payroll situation. Garza is in the same boat as Danks, you're right, but I think they're actually in the $6M range. Let's say we can turn CQ + Viciedo (about $6M already) for Garza. We take on no salary and we open an OF spot. Now we take Danks/Floyd and deal that player for a very talented young OF on a cheap salary. Someone with MLB experience. We also get a reliever in the deal, and we end up saving a couple mil perhaps as well. Then the savings goes toward ANOTHER reliever. Thus, we fill more holes. OR What about we do the same Garza deal as above. Then we send Buehrle to the Mets for Beltran with the Mets throwing in cash to equal out the salaries and sending us prospects. They're apparently considering dumping Beltran anyway and they're going to have to eat a lot of salary in the process. This helps their unsightly pitching staff and saves them from having to eat as much money, and gives them a good shot at a draft pick after MB is a FA. Now we've replaced Garza with MB and CQ with Beltran and our pitching is better and OF defense is vastly improved. With the prospect(s) we can go after a reliever through trade. There are probably tons of possibilities. The main thing for us IMO is that you can ALWAYS trade pitching, but finding fits for other pieces may be a bit tougher. We do however seem to be a fit for TB based on the holes they have and the salary concerns that go along with it. Depending on the deal maybe you throw in something on their side and add prospects on ours, whatever.

There's also an article on the Rays site (front page) saying how they need a 1B. They also need a DH, and with payroll concerns, and a surplus of SP, it seems to me like this could be a great fit for both sides. We then deal a starter for payroll space to sign a reliever or two and hopefully pick up an OF in the process.

Per MLBAdRunners "The Cubs are one of four teams in the mix for Rays righty Matt Garza, reports ESPN's Bruce Levine. The Rays are interested in receiving prospects in return." Sounds like he's available to me.

In 106 PA at the MLB level Viciedo hit .308/.321/.519/.840 as a 21-year-old rookie. If you multiply that by 5 then in 530 PA that's 35 2B, 25 HR, and while only 10 BBs, that's only 125 K's. Obviously you can't do that, and in a full season there will be ups and downs, but the power numbers could very well be like that as a rookie. Put it this way, in 2011 Viciedo is probably already better than Adam LaRoche. And he's making $1.25M and has 6 years of control left.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:39 AM) God I hope we can trade Floyd and Viciedo for some relievers so Sale won't be wasted in the bullpen. Chris Sale will be lucky to become the kind of starter Gavin Floyd is. Sale is no sure thing. Gavin, remember, was drafted higher than Chris and seen as a true ace, not so with Sale. We're getting a bit too far ahead of ourselves thinking Sale is just going to throw 180+ innings every year blowing people away. It hardly ever works like that. And trading Floyd and Viciedo for relievers is very short-sighted. We need to get more than that out of those guys. If the Sox organization were contracted today and a draft were held of all its players, Floyd and Viciedo would definitely both be top-10 picks out of the whole organization. You've got those 2, Sale, Beckham, Danks, Thornton, Alexei, Santos probably in the top-8 as an organization. You don't just waste that kind of value on a couple relievers, especially arb-eligible ones. Non-tendering a still-talented Bobby Jenks because you don't want to pay him $8-9M makes no sense when you dump 6 years of Viciedo for a $7M Heath Bell, for example. You're losing that one all the way.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:30 AM) I don't think his trade value is as high as we'd like to think. He's so far pretty much limited to 1b based on everything we've seen, and while he's shown extreme power, the saber-side will note his total lack of OBP skills. The saber side would be absolutely retarded to undervalue Dayan. They like SLG and OPS don't they? And 21-year-old players?

I don't even know if I'd count Pena as part of the mix ATM considering he may very well be the 5th starter to open the season should Peavy not be ready. And even with him in the pen he's just a LR/spot starter. We've just really got three guys we can rely on right now. One thing I will say is that I'd MUCH rather overpay for Jenks on a 1-year deal ($6M to me would be overpaying) or Wood ($7M same thing) than give out 3/$10M to someone like Guerrier or Downs - assuming we could come up with the funds to do that. We should try if at all possible to push the guys we already have down further because we are talking about a guy who has only been pitching professionally for 2 seasons and another guy who just was drafted last June.

Dayan's value is going to be pretty high I think. The question is if we want to make him an OF or not. If not, then he's probably gone. The Sox, if they trade him, aren't going to trade him because they think he sucks or they've given up on him, they'll trade him because he can get them a very good baseball player. I could see the Sox holding on to him this year as insurance though, because if the Sox fail to make the playoffs this year then we probably blow it all up and Paulie and/or Dunn may be gone, opening a spot for Viciedo again.

QUOTE (Brian @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:20 AM) I would send Floyd and Q Too much IMO. But CQ and Viciedo would be a haul I think. Or maybe they'd prefer one of those plus a Mitchell or THompson or something. They won't find a CQ-like bat on the market for around $5M or whatever he'll get in arb.

What about Quentin + prospects? They need a DH and might not mind taking prospects who are 2-3 years away. They also have a need for a 1B and we've got Viciedo. Picking up Garza would actually make a Buehrle salary dump a sensible baseball move because we'd likely at least tread water if not improve our pitching while opening more salary room. Or more likely, it could allow for a Jackson/Floyd/Danks trade which could fill other areas.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:36 AM) I'd rather focus the remaining energy and dollars on the pen, and go with what we have for the offense (except deciding the 4th OF slot - Lillibridge vs De Aza vs Gartrell). Sale, Thornton and Santos is a solid start, and you have to figure one slot goes to Infante/Bellamy, and one to a long man. That leaves 2 open slots to go get 2 legitimate strong bullpen guys. I think addressing the pen is #1 too, but I think if we can get a cheap (salary wise) lead-off man by trading prospects we need to jump on it since we're always looking for that and we're always missing terribly. I wouldn't want to let the potential opportunity slide. Hopefully we have a couple extra million for a reliever or two. Teahen is mostly useless to us with a decent 4th OF since the IF is covered and he doesn't belong there anyway, but there have to be NL teams out there who think he's worth at least $2M per, maybe even $3M because of his "versatility" and mainly that lefty bat that can DH during interleague games. Maybe we could dump him in another Linebrink deal and free up enough money combined to either pick up a cheaper closer or maybe a couple smaller names. I'm sure the pen is Kenny's top priority now though.

If the Yankees sign Crawford then I want the Sox to go after Gardner. If the Red Sox sign Crawford then I want the Sox to go after Ellsbury. And in either situation I'd love to see Pierre relegated to 4th OF or (preferably) gone.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:24 AM) Because before you know it, you're paying out a bunch of money to players that are no longer on your baseball team. This is kind of a different situation though. It's a great deal for the Sox and also a nice message sent around the game that the Sox take care of their own.

Luke Scott is a pretty good baseball player. If he wants to come to the Sox I'll personally help him fight the New World Order.

I think if you sign either PK or Lee beyond 2 years you're going to expect some kind of setbacks. Thankfully we have Hermie. The main thing is that we get this s*** figured out like ASAP because there's no benefit to signing Lee if we don't have anyone worthwhile to sign with the savings he'd allow us. *Edit: Actually, if you sign Lee or Paulie for even 1 year you should expect some setbacks. They should both be pretty good bets for the 15-day DL sometime in August. As long as it's not a lot more than that it'll be fine though. Viciedo is insurance.

QUOTE (bschmaranz @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 05:22 PM) According to mlbtr earlier, Guerrier is looking for something in the neighborhood of what Benoit got from Detroit ($16.5/3). His agent said that's not the case last I saw. He should be in the $2.5-3M range I'd think, unless someone else goes nuts.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 04:58 PM) Derrek Lee, 2 picks and maybe a little extra cash is looking better and better by the minute when I think about it. He and Konerko are just such incredibly similar players that -- assuming injuries are not a factor, huge assumption, I know -- it's kind of a toss up as to who will put up the better numbers next season. Just looking at Bill James' usual optimistic projections for next season, which truly mean next to nothing at face value but does succeed in emphasizing the similarity: .273/.361/.496 wOBA: .372 .278/.365/.475 wOBA: .367 If our doctors like the looks of Lee's wrist this does look like the best course of action. You have to assume PK will be more productive if for no reason other than familiarity with the park, division, and league overall. However, if the difference is $5M or so then that could be, say, Arthur Rhodes as a lefty specialist and Matt Guerrier as a middle reliever, which may not be the sexiest names but may be enough to keep the back end of the pen guys in their roles and keep the pen strong. Then you've got 2 draft picks and you also don't have to deal with such a lengthy commitment. OTOH, the Sox could go with Lee, then spend the money on someone who just ends up DFA'd in June, and the difference between Lee and PK costs us the division. And because it costs us the division we end up reloading/rebuilding in 2012-14 instead of contending. But then maybe we get Wood on a great bargain due to the savings and he kills it for us, and then we sign Lee and he's just a monster on a sweetheart deal because we picked up an affordable 2012 option in the process. Huge decision.

QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 03:24 PM) Compromise should be in order: 2yr/27 mil - 3rd year mutual option $15 mil year 1, $12 mil year 2, $12 mil option year 3. More like $12M in 2011, $12M in 2012, $12M option in 2013 with a $3M buyout... move that extra cash to the back end. I think we'll catch a break if he signs a deal like that though. He'll probably get 3 years guaranteed from someone, probably us.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 02:45 PM) I'm pretty convinced that Cowley just sits on his recliner drinking beer and tweeting things that sound plausible (or not). He's probably not in Orlando right now...in fact, he's probably never even seen the inside of the Sox clubhouse. For all I know, he's an A.I. (I use the "I" liberally) broadcasting over the Internet. Cowleytron. I think Cowley has a couple of underaged kids running around for him collecting mostly dubious information which he uses in his tweets and columns. He probably tosses them a bone here and there just to keep them hungry, but mostly he placates them by feigning interest in their stories of how sick their mothers are before sending them back out in search of something that he didn't "already know." That's pretty much who Joe Cowley is IMO.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 02:37 PM) You must not have actually seen Pierre play in LF this past year? Folks actually raved about his defense. Granted his arm isn't much, but he didn't do too bad at all out there IMO I meant more like CQ in LF + Fukudome in RF > Pierre in LF + CQ in RF. You could probably argue that though. My thinking would be that Fukudome is tons better than CQ in RF and in LF the loss of Pierre's range is somewhat lessened by CQ's arm strength.

I just saw Joel Hanrahan's name on MLBTR (not in a trade rumor) but that got me thinking.... he had a sick statistical year last year and he's always had incredible stuff. He's 29 next year but will be hitting arb and getting expensive fast. Anyone think the Pirates would sell high and that Kenny would be in on that? He'd obviously cost a lot but I wonder how much...

Angels? Maybe they figured Lee > Crawford? If so it's a ton of money but still better giving it to Lee than Crawford IMO.

QUOTE (scenario @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 01:48 PM) Any interest in Fukudome if the Cubs offered to pick up half his remaining salary? Straight up for Pierre, even salary. Yes please. CQ back to LF, Fukudome in RF. Better defense. Or even better, Fukudome + Cubs cash in 2011 for Teahen + prospect + Sox cash in 2012. Fukudome is then the 4th OF and added insurance.