Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 12:03 AM) Ken Griffey Jr 19 - .264/.329/.420/.748 108 OPS+ 20 - .300/.366/.481/.847 135 OPS+ 21 - .327/.399/.527/.926 155 OPS+ 22 - .308/.361/.535/.896 149 OPS+ Justin Upton 19 - .221/.283/.364/.647 62 OPS+ 20 - .250/.353/.463/.816 106 OPS+ 21 - .300/.366/.532/.899 129 OPS+ 22 - .273/.356/.442/.799 111 OPS+ He's obviously not quite Griffey, but Griffey was also one of the best of all time. I would say he appears to be one solid step below Griffey, but it's not like that would be mediocre. He's still very young and he's established himself as a good hitter already who could still end up being phenomenal. There's a ton of value in that. He hasn't even gotten close to entering his prime years yet. I don't think Upton will be dealt. Towers is waiting for a package that is going to blow him away, and I don't think anyone is going to provide that. The team that probably has the best chance to acquire him would be Kansas City...we'll see whether or not Moore even wants to go there. (FWIW, I really don't think Clay Buccholz would be a huge get. I think he's probably a solid #2 this year, but his ERA should have been higher this year. If anything, this year was more of a correction in his career stats between his previous 2 seasons where he gave up a ton of homers while still striking people out. He's good, but he's not nearly as valuable as Justin Upton) Seriously that is a terrible comparison all the way around. Upton may be potentially great but Griffey is one of the greatest to ever play the game, maybe even the best, and there's no way anyone should ever be compared to him. Furthermore their skillsets don't even come close. Griffey was a better fielder, better arm, much better contact guy, he walked more, better raw power, left-handed... I mean Jesus this is horrible as a comparison. And the bottom line is still that Upton isn't guaranteed to do anything. His brother has fallen off a cliff and his other brother did the same years ago. Anyone who would give up twice the talent Upton is worth has no business running a Major League organization.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 12:02 AM) I know he's valuable. Justin Upton is more valuable. Not a difficult concept. I agree. But not THAT much more valuable and I'm probably biased towards Upton. Look, in the American League and in the Cell, a now-25 John Danks - a lefty - did this over the last three seasons: 2008: 195 IP, 1.226 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 2009: 200.1 IP, 1.283 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 6.7 K/9 2010: 213 IP, 1.216 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9 This kid is f***ing good. Go float his name over on the DBacks board (wherever that is) as the centerpiece of an Upton deal and I guarantee the fans over there will not laugh at you.

A #2 starter who is young and LH and under team control isn't a back breaker? Let's ignore all the other pieces for a moment and try to remember how valuable Johnny Danks is alone. When that inevitable "Sox Listening on John Danks" post hits MLBTR go look at the comments and watch fans from the other 29 teams salivate over him. Yeah, he's valuable.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Nov 18, 2010 -> 09:04 PM) If you value defense you will. Olivo is pretty much the closest thing to Yadier Molina in the game. That's just wrong. He'll probably end up in his 7th different organization this year (my bet is Texas) and he's only 31. If that combined with an unreal arm, the ability to hit 20+ bombs, and an overall scarcity of catchers doesn't say something really bad about his competency behind the plate I don't know what does. OTOH, Yadier Molina is one of the types of players you want to build a team around.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 18, 2010 -> 11:01 PM) I don't see us being a fit. Our most valuable position players (Alexei/Beckham) play positions they already have filled with competent players, our best prospect can't be traded until June, our other prospects aren't that good for the most part, and we aren't in a position to deal more than 1 starter or reliever (if any). I would guess the DBacks would want something along the lines of Danks1, Quentin, Santos, Mitchell, Viciedo. If they don't get blown away they have no reason to trade him. Jesus Christ dude, if this is the type of s*** teams were willing to part with Upton would have been gone yesterday. Danks + Santos + Mitchell/Viciedo is a massive haul on it's own and well beyond what they got for Haren. Your package is more talent than they got all last year working as hard as they could to disassemble the entire organization. Not a chance anyone parts with anything like that.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 18, 2010 -> 10:38 PM) The Diamondbacks would hang up the phone for either one of those proposed deals, especially Ellsbury and Bard. That's ridiculous. Someone on FanGraphs suggested something along the lines of Buchholz, Doubront, Kalish, and Iglesias for Upton, which is closer to what they would be looking for and still might come up short. Those packages were courtesy of MLBTR and given out by unnamed execs. The package you're mentioning is ludicrous and well beyond anything that is actually realistic. Clay Buchholz alone is haul, and adding all that including a starting SS is just never ever going to happen. Justin Upton is talented but Theo isn't retarded. They'd already have AGon if they were willing to part with that much.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 18, 2010 -> 01:19 PM) Dbacks traded a 19-year-old starter who had pretty good peripherals (9 K/9 to a 2.7 BB/9) for a 28-year-old 1B who is probably just a back-up player. Makes no sense for the Dbacks whom is thought to be trading off their talented players. He doesn't really sound like that great of a prospect. A 6'1" 170lb righty taken in the 11th round who sits 88-93 with the chance of developing an above average curveball. I doubt the DBacks thought much of him given what they got in return.

Eh, Olivo is the next best FA out there after AJ (if you aren't viewing VMart as a fulltime starting C that is) and he's actually younger and brings more power, even if he is a lesser hitter overall. I imagine the Sox interest here is genuine.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 11:47 PM) I thought that Arizona is trying to cut costs, why would they want a pitcher who is about to get super expensive? They could always work out a Danks-friendly extension (still paying him well), take one year of him for themselves to try to win their division with pitching ala the 2010 Giants, and then spin him off the following season for a big return as a pitcher already locked up for a couple more seasons, maybe 3. Basically, when Ted Lilly gets 3/$33M and those are figures Carl Pavano and Javy Vazquez are shooting for, and Kuroda gets 1 year, $12M without even playing the market, then a Danks deal of say $6M in 2011, $9M in 2012, $11M in 2013, $14M in 2014 still looks very good - and that would be a very Danks-friendly extension IMO.

So potential packages being thrown around (guessed at right now) are: Jacoby Ellsbury and Daniel Bard from the Red Sox Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco from the Marlins 4-5 prospects If those deals can do it then the Sox are in this if they want to be.

I don't think we're getting that kind of value out of Carlos. It's now been 2 years since his breakout and it's probably looking like an anomaly to some people because of that. Remove his 2008 season and in 1380 MLB PA he's hitting .237/.328/.455/.783 which is not much for a guy who can't really play defense anywhere. Keep his huge 2008 and you're still looking at a line of .251/.347/.488/.835 which is still not great for a butcher in the OF. If we can keep him as a DH we could come out way ahead though. It just sucks because we can get burned whether we trade him or keep him. Kenny is in a tough spot with this guy.

Okay here's one: if we want K machines who can play CF, let's get Chris Young back. He produced an overall solid year last year, but he did come back from the minors and the money owed to him in the future is probably scary to the DBacks who right now appear intent on dumping just about every commitment they have. We might be able to get him cheaper than Granderson and for a lot less money too. Better yet, if you're going to go after Upton already, let's run out a Young-Rios-Upton OF and ruin s*** defensively. Send Juan's ass home.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 06:00 PM) There is no reason Dunn couldn't play 1st decently enough. Beyond his total lack of athleticism and his apparent cluelessness in general, the guy doesn't even have any kind of real baseball instincts to fall back on. He's a fantastic monster of a hitter but even at first base his s***tiness in the field detracts seriously from his value. He's one of the few players in baseball who would actually get more money for himself if he stated he had no interest in playing the field.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 05:42 PM) That has Hundley for Grudzielanek and Karros written all over it Hundley was never the player Ibanez has been and Teahen isn't nearly the player Grudz used to be (starting caliber). And Quentin's potential goes so far beyond what Eric Karros was at the time that it's not even funny. Dealing Quentin is a huge risk no matter what, but at the same time there's a whole lot of uncertainty there. If you do it then get as much value as you can, and IMO the value of dumping Teahen's contract is probably greater than what we could get back in prospects. But yeah, any Quentin deal we make (if we make one) is going to have SoxTalk crossing it's fingers hoping we didn't just give up a candidate for the 2011 MVP.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 05:43 PM) I'd be down for a Buehrle for Rasmus deal. Probably wouldn't work straight up but maybe there is a framework there? Hell if I know. But St. Louis is the only place you could deal Buehrle to without taking a major PR hit. You'd have to spin it in the sense that he always wanted to play there and the opportunity came up to let him go "home" or blah blah blah. Losing Paulie and Buehrle would be a PR nightmare. Again, doesn't necessarily mean the Sox couldn't win by not bringing those guys back (or in Buehrle case dealing him) but there are PR ramifications you have to consider. I think St. Louis laughs in our face if we offer that because of years remaining and salary, which is why I always defend keeping Mark to the point of exhaustion. I doubt we'd get much of a return beyond salary relief (like maybe another team's equivalent of a Morel + Leesman + Infante package) so if we did it it would have to be part of something huge that would not only soften the blow of losing Mark, but also convince the fans that we had made a considerable improvement to the team in the process. It couldn't be some "let's deal Mark and spend the money on an old lefty DH and a reliever" plan.

Random spazz thought - does anyone think this possibility crossed Kenny's mind: trade Buehrle (and I generally loathe the idea BTW) for pretty much nothing but a couple useful prospects and salary relief, and use Danks in an Upton deal, and then take the money saved and ... gasp ... throw it at Cliff Lee? Because Danks in arb + Mark is around $20M and Cliff Lee + Upton is only a mil or two above that. And that's about the only scenario where I like trading Mark. I'd only do it to take on a better pitcher.

Ibanez for Quentin and Teahen. Right now. Similar cash this year and we free ourselves from Teahen's 2012 salary. Do it.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 02:24 PM) I'm talking about our prospects, Morel, Viciedo, Flowers, Danks2, Sale (as PTBNL), Santos, etc. Those guys would have to be used to acquire anything worthwhile (obviously differing on the player). So then who plays 3B, 1B, DH, C, 7th/8th inning man, etc. You then have to overpay in FA for mediocre to bad players, or be stuck with bad players like Teahen. Morel would be replaced by Omar. We'd have to find someone in 2012 though. Morel couldn't be expected to produce much more than Omar as a rookie anyway. He'd hit for more power but the OBP and AVG would both be pretty low. He'd be a #9 hitter probably. Viciedo has potential but for Justin Upton? LOL, see ya dude! Santos - I love the guy, and I love the story, and I love the potential. But he's still an out-of-options former bust prospect with 2 seasons of pitching in pro baseball under his belt. His value is sky-high right now, and depending on the return I would not be afraid to capitalize on it. Sale can't be traded anyway. He'd have to be in the org for a full year or go as a PTBNL and no way anyone takes him as a PTBNL this far out. It just wouldn't happen. He's too valuable of a piece. Flowers and D2 aren't even prospects. Flower has no business on the MLB team in any role and D2 would only be useful as a 5th OF/defensive replacement/PR. And lastly, if you get a guy like Justin Upton, even for every one of these guys aside from Sale who can't be traded, you run like hell because it's an enormous steal and you feel happy about acquiring a new face of the organization, another middle of the order hitter, a RF who can actually play RF, and to make Ozzie happy, even more speed on the basepaths. You don't worry about who is playing C because if it was going to be Flowers then you were already f***ed anyway.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 02:11 PM) And we'll be depleted of all young replacements, will still have those contracts to take on, and will need to sign a bevy of FA to shore up holes still. All young replacements? Probably not for BJ whose value is now as low as it's ever been. If it's Justin Upton, then it becomes "who cares?" And as far as contracts, BJ is arb-eligible and Justin is on what should become a sweetheart deal given his ability. I also would wonder about these young replacements anyway and how good they'd be at replacing things.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 02:07 PM) Really, I don't believe that Danks is a durability concern at all, and the only way he's a mechanics concern is if you want to say that his occasional bad start that he just can't endure is caused by inconsistent mechanics. I agree with you, and that's a big reason why it's hard to say Sale will be better than Danks at all as a starter. I really think Danks is under appreciated here for whatever reason.

Good, I hope it's like 6 years and a zillion dollars. That Benoit signing was f***ing retarded. Kenny's one of the Uptons right now, maybe both. Kenny likes the bling.

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 17, 2010 -> 01:16 PM) I think Sale has more potential than Danks as a starter. It's not like Danks is a 7 innings per game guy either. I agree with all this stuff: http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/05...scouting-report The only part I really disagree with is this: These guys obviously watched him as a starter and had no idea what he was capable of out of the pen. Knowing what they know now, I imagine they'd have no problem taking this kind of closer in the first round. BTW Danks is becoming severely underrated on this forum, and a lot of Danks' potential and Sale's potential are locked up in questions of durability and mechanics. Both have high ceilings as starters, but Danks is the safer bet. And I just happen to think that even more than that, with durability and mechanics aside, Danks still has a higher ceiling out of the rotation than Sale does because of his delivery and because we already know what Danks can do, and saying Sale should be able to do more is kind of pie-in-the-sky IMO.

Kenny is always "in the middle" and the last time he specifically tried to be "in the middle" he won a division title. The idea that one way or the other is the way to go - well, who actually thinks that's true? Really? If you're too old you're vulnerable to quick regression and bad contracts (see Detroit of recent years) and you have a hard time finding the pieces to build your next core around. And if you're too young you don't just end up like TB, they're not like some model that anyone can achieve, they're the product of major sucking for a long time followed by some good moves years later, and despite what everyone may *think* they are actually NOT destined for 10+ years of being at the top of league either. They're not guaranteed anything. People said the same about every Marlins squad that was run out there after they tore the place down. How many playoff appearances - scratch that - non-dogs*** teams have the O's run out in recent memory? Winning in baseball is hard enough as it is, and asking young players to reach their potential in order to win first is even more difficult. It's amazing to me that year after year there are so many Sox fans who think trading good proven players for minor league nobodies is the way to go. Well we tried that for a long time and it doesn't work. You have to be in the middle. And Kenny's quote, to me, sounds more like "Dunn's asking price is too high for a strikeout king with no D who yet demands to be on the field, and as a result, throwing Viciedo out there (hopefully in a platoon or with a backup) and spending the money elsewhere might be a better idea."

The best chance the Sox have is with Peavy in the rotation and Sale in the pen. Get well Jake.

Yeah I'm gonna have to go out on a limb and say Sale isn't ever going to be an ace. His potential in the rotation is not anywhere near 7 innings per game of what you see in the ninth. He would be good, but he'd be a step down from Danks IMO. Definitely can't shout "ACE!" on him. And I'm not hating either, I love Chris Sale. He's incredible.