Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (joeynach @ Nov 23, 2010 -> 03:43 PM) Its a good move not offering Arb to AJ...he would have accepted. With Buck getting 6M per year that pretty much tells you right there at AJ is worth less on the open market now. If the sox want to still sign him they can but probably for around $4M per year or less. Most likely Konerko is going to decline arbitration and we will get a draft pick if/when he signs elsewhere. I actually hope Putz accepts...having him around for another year at $3-4M is not bad at all. With Bobby likely to be non-tendered and the possibility Sale is in the rotation, our bullpen is very thin. We need him or a similar replacement quality arm. No way AJ accepts IMO. AJ isn't getting any younger. He'll be looking for his last major deal right now and he should go after the most guaranteed money possible. I think he gets 2/$12 or 3/$15 on the open market no doubt. . Also I'll be very surprised if Putz in arb costs anything less than $5M. He is a former closer afterall and he had a great year. I think he'd actually get more like $6M+.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Nov 23, 2010 -> 03:29 PM) People don't want to sign AJ for $7M. Ok, but any good catcher is going to cost some money. As long as we can keep negotiating with AJP I am not upset, but what do we sign him for if in fact we bring him back? $6.99M? Sometimes I think KW thinks he is too smart for his own good. We won't win with a Flowers/Castro package at C and I don't think we will win with a Miggy Olivo/Ramon Castro tandem either. I agree with you. Offering AJ arb was a no-brainer. Some team out there would give him $6M for 2 years and maybe 3 IMO, so why would he want to fight the Sox in arb for a 1-year $7-8M deal? Stupid. Also, putting Tyroid behind the plate and asking him to handle a Peavy-Buehrle-Floyd-Danks-Jackson staff is like buying a Rolls Royce and trying to run it off filthy canola oil scavenged from the dumpster behind Burger King. Flowers is the green aka laughably ineffective solution to this problem. And Castro may have looked like Jesus last year, but he's still Ramon Castro, and his salary is where it is for a reason. A Miguel Olivo-Castro tandem is better, but still not good enough if we're going for it, and with our rotation we better damn well be. Kenny will probably have to turn to the trade market if AJ signs elsewhere.

I'd much rather have BMac as a starter than a reliever. However, I'd much rather have about 4500 other pitchers as a starter. This is one trip down memory lane the Sox don't need to make. If Pena can be brought back for around $2-2.5M then I'd consider it simply because he's kind of effective in several roles, although I'd much rather throw that money at a real setup man.

The amount of money the Tigers have thrown at VMart and Benoit is great for the Sox and the rest of the usually thrifty AL Central. The only downside is that this may have an effect on what AJ signs for, although I doubt it.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 23, 2010 -> 12:31 PM) I am diong that because you are using fangraph $ values to show me why he is a bargain and that is plain ridiculous and isn't what those dollar values were created for. I won't argue that he wasn't effective last year, he was, very much so. I'd argue that I'd have little confidence expecting 11 to 12 M per year production out of him. This. This. And more this.

Granderson would be a waste. If we're going to go after a Yankee OF I'd rather check in on Brett Gardner. Something tells me the Yanks would still undervalue him. Jackson alone though does really nothing for me. His power can be had cheaply through a DH which we need anyway. His ability to play CF we don't need, just a RF, and we can find something else on the trade market for cheaper if we can't find anything in FA. The name value I really don't care about, the speed is nice but it's not a top priority this offseason by any means, and it's not like he's cheap either. We're still going to win with pitching and defense if we win anything, so trading away Jackson accomplishes nothing other than weakening ourselves in that area substantially. Especially with rumors abound that Peavy may not be ready until pretty well into the 2011 season. I really don't like the idea of trading any of our starters to be exact. I'm actually wondering why we need to trade any of them when we have so much money coming off the books. Yes I know there are raises due to a few players, but there are still bargains out there on the market, we just can't be squandering all our money on crap this time. It's one thing to talk about trading a starter for an uber talent like Upton who you can control for a long time, or Fielder who is a monster of a bat that would take our offense to a level we couldn't otherwise take it, but if we do it, let's make ourselves elite in one area and not average in 3. Let's make an improvement that we know is a HUGE improvement, otherwise we're just treading water at best.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 20, 2010 -> 02:15 PM) Actually, it usually is because a lot of times it's manufactured by companies like Quaker Oats and General Mills who just give them a cheap name and low price to target both spectrums of the market. Kids Krunch is the EXACT SAME thing as Cap'n Crunch. I usually like the cheaper cereals anyway because they don't have as much sugar in them. Aside from that it seems they're the same stuff. Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I'd rather have Oats 'N s*** for breakfast instead of like Sugar Rockets or whatever. And JMO, but I think it's all part of a wider conspiracy where the drug companies and cereal companies get together and find ways to get kids all f***ing batty in the morning so they can't sit still in class and later on end up all doped up on downers. I think Post gets kickbacks from like Pfizer and stuff. Not really. But maybe... Nothing beats the difference between DayQuil/NyQuil and the Walgreens brand though. It's completely the same thing except the Walgreens brand is so much cheaper, and that's good for me because I love that stuff. I mean, you don't really have to be sick to drink it. You just shouldn't drink a lot of it. And you can't buy a lot of it either because then they think you're going to go cook up some meth. But you can even use it to make Flaming Homers apparently, although I've never tried that personally.

QUOTE (J.Reedfan8 @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 06:05 AM) When the hell did you crawl out of your little hole? When the offseason started. I'll probably head back down around Groundhog Day.

QUOTE (bschmaranz @ Nov 20, 2010 -> 05:25 PM) I went with Buehrle. I've loved every minute of his run but he's expensive, aging and we can still get something for him now. What you'd get would be primarily salary relief and I don't have much faith in Sox brass ATM as far as how they'd spend that. Kenny would probably sign Bill Hall for a zillion dollars and then trade for Chone Figgins without sending a bad contract in return. Then he'd talk about how much better we'll be, and how much more versatile, and fifty cents, and all that good stuff.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 20, 2010 -> 04:58 PM) This is a bored Phil Rogers trying to drum up business. I disagree. This is an excited Phil Rogers who can hardly contain himself.

I'd take either Zambrano or Fukudome for Teahen, Pierre, and Linebrink, with cash thrown in by the Cubs if it's Zambrano. But I don't want both of those contracts, and I certainly don't want to give up Gavin Floyd in the process. I would do Phil's deal in a heartbeat though if the choice was either that trade or Jim Hendry as Sox GM.

Okay so what deals almost happened with the Sox? And I think Kenny probably doesn't care what anyone thinks.

AL Gold Glove Voting For the Next Zillion Years - SS 1. Derek Jeter 989456 points 2. Charles Barkley 87 points 3. Ralph Nader 6 points etc. etc. etc.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 02:40 AM) If you're trying to break into baseball...being Canadian does suck. No offense taken. And I agree about League. It's not often you find a guy that throws a 97mph sinker. But in AA's exact words after the deal..."we f***ing stole that guy" If it's any credit to the influence of online chatter...he was genuinely concerned that internet criticism would cause Jack Z to back out of the deal. Trust me....they read this stuff. Dude that is awesome. I hope Kenny has read all my hatred directed at Mark Teahen, every single bit of it. I hated that deal the moment it was made and I hate it more by the day. Ditto with the Pierre deal, although I've softened on that. But I still hate it. I really hope he reads some of the s*** that gets posted here. Except that anti-AJ BS. I hope he reads none of that, but every bit of the stuff I've gone on about like how Tyler Flowers blows and would be a joke as our starting C. Although maybe he reads nothing because like every Sox fan on the planet was pissed about opening 2009 with Dewayne Wise as our starting CF and he didn't do jack about that. But that's pretty cool about Morrow though. At the time that was seen as a fairly even swap with maybe even an edge to the Ms since Morrow wasn't making strides. But Morrow showed this year that he's starting to get it, and he may be in for a big 2012. AA did pretty well for himself there. That has to be pretty sweet knowing you had a little bit of involvement there.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 01:59 AM) Yeah, I agree we could conceivably get Upton. But with the whole Boston thing (which sucks because I hate the other Sox) they're depth is embarassingly better than ours is. My point I guess is that I don't see KW willing to give up what they'll want. And that's probably a good thing, even though I'm a big J.Upton fan. I was in the front office. I wasn't assistant GM or anything cool like that obviously. I was the intern...the guy that's in charge of keeping his boards updated and doing research where he saw fit. I did some cool s*** (the coolest was player research for guys they were interested in...especially cool when they get the guy - Brandon Morrow for example) but also tedious stuff life scout expenses and whatnot. Either way, when you're a Canadian looking to get into baseball....it was a good start. If only they were in hiring mode....still working on that. But again, I'm not trying to position myself as some superior judge of talent. We're all baseball fans. The best scouts I met while I was with Toronto were the humble ones. It's the humble ones (when you look at their signing history) that sign the best players. I hate the Red Sox too, in fact I actually hate them more than the Cubs. But it's hard to look at their system (and not just that, but the way they run their business in general) and not be a tad envious. They are a lot deeper but their depth is always overstated because they, like anyone else, have a certain point where they will hang up the phone, and just because they may have some better prospects doesn't mean they are going to trade them. And just because BA sees so-and-so as some awesome prospect who is going to tear it up in the future doesn't mean that Joe Blow who is No. 1 in GM X's ear sees it the same way. Yeah you're probably right that Kenny won't give up what Towers wants since the odds are going to be against us no matter what. And BTW you know there's some mystery team in there like Texas that could very well look to make a splash whatever the cost should the Yankees steal Cliff Lee away. But still, I think whether Kenny would part with the cost all depends on which direction he wants to take. I happen to think he could simply because from the early rumors it appears he's willing to talk about Danks or Floyd, and if you're willing to part with them then you're already willing to part with a ton of young talent as it is. That's still pretty cool you were an intern and got to do the research. It's better than any job I've ever had, even better than selling drugs! Sucks you're Canadian though, lol. Just kidding. But researching Brandon Morrow - that actually sounds pretty fun. I really like the guy they traded to get him too, Brandon League. I think the Sox will end up with him eventually.

I'd pick the Jays to get him too. They have tons of young pitching. Yes, I believe we have the talent to get Upton. The probability - who knows? We really can't tell since we don't even know what direction Kenny is going in yet. I think we could afford the cost *if* the focus is on winning in 2011 with Buehrle and Jackson, and in 2012 with Peavy. If we win then, the whole picture changes. If however Kenny decides on prioritizing winning in say 2012 and forwards while running out a good but kind of in between team this year, then I don't think Kenny sees us as able to afford it. And still, it all comes down to Towers. He'll be offered tons of talent and I think that will be all that matters in the end. I know though that if Kenny does want to get serious and make a truly competitive offer, Towers will definitely recognize the talent we have. We wouldn't just get blown out of the water by Boston like everyone seems to think whenever we covet a player they do. Interesting about Upton. Were you in the office or something? That's pretty cool.

I was thinking yesterday of making a thread suggesting a Luke Scott for Quentin trade, but decided against it. Quentin has vastly superior talent but Scott is the safer bet to produce. Quentin has shown it isn't just physical anymore, it's mental and emotional as well, and even when things are going right for him he's prone to falling off a cliff at the next step. If we're trying to go for it all in 2011 I'd probably do that deal with Scott being the DH, but if Kenny trades pitching and tries to turn back the clock a bit I'd keep Quentin. I think the O's would do that though since they have to be all about potential at this point and Scott is right at his ceiling IMO.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 02:06 AM) It's just an inconvenient matchup. Beckham is probably our most valuable position player, but Kelly Johnson had a great season. Alexei probably comes second, but Stephen Drew is there. Morel is nice, but they've got a 3b. All those guys they have are tradeable, but I doubt they're going to want to make one major deal that forces their hand into another trade. They're not going to want to lose leverage on trading any of those three other guys. And on our side, we don't have many areas where we can trade away big pieces (if any). We might have the least depth of any team in baseball. We have good starters, but we're not exactly "deep" in terms of pitching because our farm system is so barren. The pitchers we have are nice, but it's basically feast or famine with us. It just doesn't seem to fit. There's a lot of teams that can put together a better package (that they're comfortable with) than we can. And on a side note.....I'm enjoying the discussion. I generally avoid internet stuff because too many people aren't worth having a discussion with. I don't think we'd put Beckham in the deal anyway. Ditto with Alexei. Morel I actually see them being very interested in. Reynolds is probably next out the door. Positionally we don't have a ton of depth, but in the rotation we do. Most teams have to scramble for decent 4th starters and we have 5 that are sick, plus a legitimate LH starter prospect sitting there behind it. And even Freddy wants to come back, and he could be the 7th. We have depth there. The pitching in the minors is pretty bleak, but I'm not so sure that would matter in this situation. Like I said before, I think if an Upton deal occurs the talent will win out regardless of position. You mentioned Drew, but if they can trade Haren and Upton they can trade anyone on that team making money. If some team comes along with a package headed by a SS, and Towers thinks that SS is the best player offered to him period, and the surrounding talent is also good enough, I think Towers will make that deal and then trade Drew to open SS up. Now if we happen to make the best offer it'll be because of Floyd or Danks heading the package IMO, and at that point we'd just offer as much talent as we had to in order to close the deal. In that scenario it might actually be advantageous for us since we could offer something that they would immediately have room for which would boost their contention chances. Yeah, I like the conversation too. I don't do it as often anymore because most people on this board hate me. lol.

The most concerning lefty bat issue for me ATM is the lack of Thome's name being mentioned. I swear to God I'm going to break something if I have to listen to all that versatility drivel all offseason again. Look, Matsui and Damon are not versatile. They don't belong in the field. They're DHs. If you want cheap lefty power go with Thome. He's a great clubhouse guy and you can platoon him without him crying to the media. He's not a Borass guy either. But I'm still really afraid that the Sox would rather give Damon $5M after a down year and let him suck ass in the outfield here and there than pay Thome half that to tear it up in a platoon without hurting us on D. It seems like we always do the dumbest things.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 12:53 AM) I seem to remember Bill James pegging him as one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball in last year's handbook. Don't quote me though. From what I've seen of him, he's got hard/slow hands (passed balls, dropped balls), and he takes a long time putting his fingers down. Pitchers seem to have a hard time getting into a good rhythm with him on the mound. Then again, I haven't seen a ton of him. But when I have seen him play I watch him a little closer because I'm always curious why Sox pitchers supposedly didn't like him behind the plate. Maybe he's just lazy. I've only seen him when the Sox play his teams though so it's not much for me either.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 01:32 AM) I guess all I have to say to that is we feel differently about his approach. I agree in that I don't think Towers is the type of GM to be deceitful about his intentions. I don't think he's stringing people along. From everything available to the public he's made it more than clear he's asking for the moon. So long as he's making himself clear, he's not leading anybody on by any means. And in terms of WAR and all that, from what I know about Towers is he's an old school scout-based guy. That being said, Danks is a favourite of scouts as well so I don't think that's a big deal. But like I said in my initial post, I don't think the Sox are a good fit. I agree they've had a ton of past deals with ARI (plus the Peavy deal), but I don't think the two teams match up all too well in terms of players. Other teams simply have a lot more depth to work with. I don't think matching up is going to be much of a factor here. I don't think Towers is going to say "we need to fill holes X, Y, and Z so we'll only trade Upton if we can fill those three holes." I think he'll look at the package that nets him the most amount of talent both now and in the future. He's asking for a lot, but a lot in baseball FO terms is different from what constitutes a lot in fans eyes. We sit here and speculate on players largely based on what we've read and what other people say. It's easy for a fan to laugh at, say, Viciedo being a key to a deal. Fans can say "oh, this guy has proven nothing, he's not more valuable than so-and-so who is ranked higher in BP" but Towers and co. are the ones out there watching these guys. Towers was a fan of Richard and that's working out well for the Pads. They actually got a pretty good deal in retrospect given Peavy's contract and the amount of time he's been on the DL, even though many including myself thought that was an absolute steal for Kenny from a talent perspective. We really don't know, but I think it's safe to say one of these super mega fantasy deals are not going to happen. Towers isn't going to waste his time chasing rainbows when he has a club to run.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 12:39 AM) Well the kicker with Danks is that he's only team controllable for 2 more season. If he had a Gavin Floyd contract it would be different. With everyone else we would be giving them (Quentin included) it's primarily about potential. I suppose the same could be said about Upton, except the potential with Upton is HOF, whereas nobody else can realistically say that. And sure, Viciedo could be Kendry Morales. That's the fun with prospects. Eduardo Escobar could be Omar Vizquel. But the reality is both Viciedo and Mitchell are borderline top-100 prospect guys, not blue chippers. And again, not advocating we make the trade I suggested. Just saying I think that's the type of deal they'll want. I think they're making his availability so public for a reason, hoping some team will crack at the thought of his potential. I peg the chances of him actually being dealt at about 10 percent. I disagree with this. I think this "listening" thing is Kevin Towers having serious thoughts about Upton's down year last year and wanting to know how much talent he could extract from him. IMO this "listening" period doesn't happen unless Towers really does kind of want to make a deal. I mean if it were nothing but listening and that's it then why would half the league be engaging in conversations? Why would this be the center of the baseball universe right now? Why would Towers want his star player and franchise cornerstone sitting at home wondering where he's going to play next year? Remember how Kenny last year called Gordon Beckham and asked him if it was okay to trade for Teahen and move Gordon to second? You don't just let this stuff happen if there's no real intent there. And we're talking about a team that just traded Dan Haren. And it doesn't matter what Towers is going to ask for. Asking doesn't mean anything, and we're using the wrong word here. It's settling for that we care about. What is the very least amount of talent, in the end, that he'll take for Upton? He's a GM let's remember. He's got all this stuff figured out. He'll look at a guy like Danks and say "this guy would make our rotation a whole lot better and help us contend next year" and then on top of it he's going to put some kind of numerical value on that player. The statheads all love their WAR stuff and maybe he's one of them. He may have his own system kind of like FanGraphs uses, except actually a sensible one, that puts a monetary value on performance. But Towers, whatever his system is, is going to come up with some sort of real value in terms of performance that tells him how another current MLB player compares with Upton while factoring in years remaining and contract value, extendability, etc. He'll likely come up with some kind of number, he's not going to just blindly make a move on feel. Because he already knows he is likely trading the best player in the deal, he will need to come up with some total of real, on-field performance in the form of a proven player *and then* acquire enough speculative value beyond that to make the deal work. Now if Towers is already thinking of making a deal then he's not going to drag his franchise player through an offseason full of trade rumors unless he actually believes he may get whatever type of value he's searching for. Again, we need to remember that he's a GM. He talks to other GMs all year long and has done so for a long time. He's not going to waste other GMs time. He's not going to want to piss them off by playing hard to get, nor does he want to insult them. He's not going to be asking a whole lot more beyond what he'd expect another team to ask for in the same situation. So this ridiculous "it'll take 5,000 All-Stars to get Upton" stuff isn't going to be a factor. And my guess would be that the other GMs who are quoting Towers' price as being ridiculous probably are saying more about their own thoughts on Upton than they are about his asking price. But anyway, I think Upton is really on the table and it's the type of deal that other teams can definitely make. Towers isn't going to be stringing anyone along. And the Sox are actually a pretty good partner - maybe one of the best partners - because Kenny and Towers have had a working relationship (Peavy deal) in the past and Kenny's staff and Towers' staff have dealt with each other a lot in the past with prior deals. It actually seems like half the time we make deals we're making them with Arizona.

I really don't want this guy at all. Gimme Adam LaRoche for no talent in trade on a 1-year, $4M deal with some incentives if we're not bringing back Paulie.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 12:00 AM) Agreed.... other than his arm, I don't really seem him as anything special defensively. He's got a great release too and his footwork from what I've seen is impressive. Plus I love his aggressiveness and how he's always looking to pick off the guy at first. Running on Mark with Olivo behind the plate would be suicide. Olivo still can't put it all together though. He has all the physical talent but mentally or whatever it just doesn't seem to be there for him. I mean, you can't look up a "pitchers think I suck" stat but if you could I imagine he'd be way up there.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Nov 19, 2010 -> 12:14 AM) I think you've misunderstood some stuff though. I know he's good...and I did have him as the centerpiece of an Upton deal. I had him, Quentin (who was being discussed as a borderline non tender candidate), Santos (a solid, young RP), and 2 prospect with some decent sized question marks. And I still think that was too much. I wasn't suggesting that's what we offer. I was saying I think that's what they'll ask for. They've pretty much made it public they're not trading Upton unless the return is huge. Morosi at Fox Sports said he's heard they want to "win" any trade they make, or they're not making it. But see, if they're "listening" this long on Upton it's because they have reason to believe he's not what the rest of the league seems to think he is. As far as any trade goes, yes they'll ask for and receive a major haul, but let's try to add this up here. Even if Upton ends up being a .290 35 110 guy for us who gets it in the OF and gets on at a .380 clip or thereabouts, I mean just a fantastic player, then is that worth more than a guy in Danks who could contend for the NL Cy Young PLUS 5 years of a closer + some pretty freaking talented prospects? You already know what you're getting in Danks and it's very good, and you have a pretty nice idea of what you're getting in Santos because he's had a year in the bigs under his belt (and he is not going to be seen as just some ordinary reliever by the rest of the league) and on top of that you're still getting a potential Kendry Morales in Viciedo and who knows what else beyond that. In terms of "winning" a trade, that's getting off to a pretty good start. Edit: got off track here, lol. But the above offer is crazy already, without even getting into your full offer, and I doubt they'd ask more than that since this "listening" period seems to indicate a real willingness to move Upton in the first place.