Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (logic101 @ Oct 13, 2009 -> 01:38 AM) Considering Danks' circulatory problem with his finger, Floyd's bad hip and Buehrle's weakening shoulder, I think we better hang on to Hudson. And please, no Gamel. The Brewers were very disappointed by his cluelessness at the plate this year (his poor fielding was no surprise) and they'd love to move him to anyone who hasn't updated their scouting reports. I do have the feeling however that there are physical issues with every single player on this team, and also, that any player we'd bring in to the organization would bring in his own issues as well which Hermie and his staff would have to deal with. 162 games plus Spring Training plus the playoffs when we make them makes more a very, very long season of doing things that in many cases the human body was not designed to do. Until we have indications of disabilities that would scare even Hermie and his staff, we should operate like a confident Major League organization, not a frightened one. That means, if someone comes along with an offer involving our unproven prospect for their veteran MLB player, and if that veteran MLB player seriously kicks ass and gives us a shot at a title in 2010, then we make the deal that helps us the most.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 13, 2009 -> 01:24 AM) You mean Adrian Gonzalez. Yes I do.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 13, 2009 -> 01:10 AM) Ahh, I was not aware that they offered Quentin the same deal as Floyd and Danks. I disagree with regards to what you said about Floyd, but I will leave it at that. Going to arb with Danks and Quentin each year is going to mean both players end up getting a lot more than Floyd. If the Sox want to save money in arb, they're still going to have to offer more than Floyd's deal to keep Danks and Quentin from hitting arbitration. Therefore, unless Danks and Quentin end up getting hurt very badly or regress severely, to the point of being non-tendered and signed for a base well below the arb figure, it will be physically impossible for the Sox to sign either Danks or Quentin over Floyd's contracted term without giving each player more than what Floyd signed for. Floyd's deal: 09:$0.75M, 10:$2.75M, 11:$5M, 12:$7M, 13:$9.5M club option Danks and Quentin should both hit $3M+ in arb this year which is more than Floyd. Even if they have very average years in 2010, they would be expected to at least get what Floyd gets in 2011 and 2012, but they'd likely get more. 2013 would be a free agent year for all of them had Floyd not signed. Danks and CQ, if healthy, are going to get a lot more than $9.5M as free agents. Put it this way: does anyone think Alexei Ramirez's feelings are hurt because he signed for this: 08:$0.95M, 09:$1.1M, 10:$1.1M, 11:$1.1M? If the Sox bring back Kotsay, then Kotsay will probably make as much or more than Alexei will next year. Including Alexei's signing bonus, Scott Linebrink in 2010 will make $250K more than Alexei will make from 2008-2011 combined. That's hardly fair, but I doubt anyone has their feelings hurt. The economics of the game force players and teams to make decisions that end up screwing some players who deserve a lot more and burying other guys who suck in piles of cash. That's just the nature of the game and everyone involved has to accept it. If Scott Linebrink wants to give back some of the $10.5M he's owed through 2011 then I'm sure the Sox will have no problem recommitting it to Floyd and Alexei as raises. But until MLB teams are allowed to cancel out bad contracts mid-term and readjust them to accurately reflect performance, those players who end up signing for far less for security reasons shouldn't be allowed raises mid-term either, and that's basically what would have to happen in order for Floyd's deal to look good for him. So, Floyd's deal should serve as nothing but a base point for Danks and Quentin in their negotiations. And besides, I doubt Floyd and his agent are hoping everyone else gets paid less than he does. The best thing that can happen for Floyd individually is for Danks to get paid a s***load, because that means that when the Sox want to extend his deal he can get a whole lot more.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 13, 2009 -> 12:58 AM) Oh, ok, I was confused about that part. I was not sure if you were talking about Quentin there still or had switched to Danks. When I mentioned how it might be tough to offer Danksy a different extension than Floyd now, I did so because I think Floyd would think he would be being penalized for trying to work with the organization a year earlier. So I thought maybe when you started making comparisons to the extension Floyd signed, maybe that you were referring to that. I'm not really sure why you are comparing a possible Quentin extension to what Floyd signed though...isn't that a bit of apples to oranges there? The Sox came out and said they offered the exact same deal to Floyd, Danks, and Quentin last year. Floyd signed, the others didn't. I believe the Sox should trying locking up Danks and Quentin both by offering them reasonable deals, which at this point would have to be higher because they're going to get more than Floyd in 2010 just be being first-year arbitration players. Edit: Also, Floyd's deal only matters in that Floyd's deal was both of their original offers. The Sox should in no way think about hurting feelings or whatever by offering Danks and Quentin more money than Floyd. Floyd signed the deal early because he wanted security at that point. CQ and Danks held out, now they get more. Floyd would have gotten more had he also held out. There should be no hard feelings anywhere.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 13, 2009 -> 12:42 AM) No, I don't think he would be likelier to sign coming off an injury-plagued season. Why on earth would he? Why would you sign a long-term contract based on production that occurred while you were injured? The fact that he wouldn't sign last year shows that he believes in his abilities and that the arbitration system will compensate him moreso than whatever deal the Sox offerred him to buy out his arbitration years. The fact that he turned that extension down only makes it more likely that he will not be willing to sign a deal now, not less likely. As for the security being the point of these deals, I agree with you. But there is a huge distinction between signing a deal based on production that occurred when one was healthy and one based on production that occurred when one was injured. What Longoria and Braun did was take the guaranteed money offerred them in case they were struck by injury or suddenly lost their ability to perform at a high level. However, that guaranteed money was still substantial because it still recognized their ability to perform at a high level, it just guaranteed the money (and a lesser amount, at that), than what they might earn were they continue to stay healthy and perform at such a level. What you're asking Carlos to do is to sign a contract based upon a level of performance that he no doubt believes he is capable of far exceeding. Not one that just provides the consideration of guaranteeing the money, but one that is based on his performance while he was injured. There is a huge distinction there. As for the relevance of whether he might sign such an extension, to claim that we should not discuss whether he would accept such an extension because we are not Carlos Quentin is foolish. None of us are Kenny Williams or Rick Hahn either (at least not that I am aware of), and yet we discuss the concept of whether to offer such an extension to Carlos. By your logic, it is irrelevent to discuss such an idea because none of us has the ability to offer said extension in the first place. Look at the numbers I suggested. Those are NOT numbers you give to player who you expect to put up 2009-type seasons. Those are numbers you give to a player that you expect to well exceed his 2009 performance. I'm suggesting the Sox give him a far better deal than they offered the first time, which is what Floyd signed. I'm suggesting that the Sox express confidence in Quentin and offer to buy out his arb years at a reasonable price, ***NOT*** try to rip him off. I am saying that the Sox should act as if 2009 was the aberration, not 2008.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 11:58 PM) I fully understand the concept of signing to get some security and possibly missing out on some dollars. But there is a difference between that and signing a deal when you just came off a year in which you had turf toe all season. You're not asking him to sign early for some financial security. You're asking him to sign when his value is extremely low because of injury. We asked him to sign coming off of an MVP-type season last year and he said no. Don't you think he'd be likelier to sign after an injury-plagued season instead of an MVP-type one? And either way, I don't see why any of this is important. The thread is about whether or not we should attempt to sign Quentin to a deal that buys out his arb years. I believe we should try to do that. Whether or not Quentin will sign such a deal is irrelevant to the discussion because nobody here is Carlos Quentin. He'd still be signing for security BTW, that's the whole point of these deals. If Quentin re-injures his wrist in 2010 and plays 60 games then instead of being a non-tender candidate, he's got X amount of millions coming to him after 2010. It's not like a such a deal wouldn't be risky for the Sox. If the Sox offer something like $3.5M in 2010, $6.5M in 2011, $9M in 2012 ($3M buyout, last arb year), $13M in 2013 ($4M buyout) then the Sox would be guaranteeing him $13M over the next 3 years even if he never plays another baseball game again. If he's healthy, they'd be committing up to $32M to him over the next 4 years. That's a lot of money to turn down. The same Floyd deal probably isn't going to work, but it's still a deal that could give the Sox cost certainty and potentially save them some money during the final two arb years and the first FA year.

Beckham seems to have permanently captured 3B in the eyes of the Sox. I wanted Beckham at 2B but I think that ship has sailed. I doubt Viciedo will be moved to RF and CQ is already in LF, so Viciedo will probably go to 1B. So, if we already have a 3B with an incredibly high ceiling that we'll have to move to 1B, then why would we trade an asset from an area of weakness (the bullpen, where Hudson should be headed for 2010) just to create a logjam? I have no problems selling high on Hudson, but if we do, I want a major piece that will help us immediately, and depending on what type of player that would be, I'd gladly throw in the keys to the rest of our farm to get him.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 11:46 PM) Why would Q sign now? Unless he is entirely not confident that he will ever stay healthy, then he will just wait. Beckham, on the other hand, I would like to see him signed to a Longoria-esque sort of deal. I posted a thread about this several months ago. Danks declined the same deal we gave to Gavin, so I have a feeling he's not going to want to sign now either. Plus, you run the risk of alienating Floyd a bit if you go and offer Danks something bigger than what you gave him... We won't know if Quentin will sign unless we offer him something. So, offer a package and hope he signs because that makes the most sense for us. If Quentin doesn't sign then he doesn't sign, but there's no reason to not pursue it. No very good player should want to sign any of these deals because of the amount the player could end up forfeiting, but the security aspect can be pretty important, and sometimes they work out extremely well for the players. For example, our former CF prospect Chris Young is going to get millions upon millions above what his production thus far would be worth. Longoria OTOH is probably going to get screwed. You never know though and anything can happen.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 04:10 PM) 90-95 million is a pretty good estimate at where the payroll is after arbitration. That being said- I could see JR increasing payroll to about 110-120 million. JR is 70 years old and knows the team has a great chance in 2010 to go for it all if he allows KW to fill in the necessary holes. If the current economic state doesn't allow that, i expect some trades this winter. However, another 18 million is off the books after 2010 when PK and AJ head into free agency. Reinsdorf doesn't exactly own the whole team by himself. He'd need approval for such a raise. Also, Reinsdorf was the one to okay the Peavy and Rios deals, but the only reason he was able to do that is because of such little salary we had on the books at that point for 2010 and beyond. Reinsdorf allowing Kenny to make those acquisitions doesn't mean that the Sox are going to be raising payroll considerably. It just means that the Sox will have to continue being frugal when it comes to putting together teams around those contracts over their durations. I expect the Sox to be somewhere around $95-100M next year because they'll be going for it in 2010. But expect to see Kenny heavily shopping Jenks and Paulie in order to pay for improvements in other areas.

And also, let's get this s*** done with Beckham too if we can. Lock that guy up NOW. Ditto with Danks.

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes and yes again. Think about this: we go to arb with Quentin and he probably gets like $3M or thereabout. If he has a monster 2010, then he could be looking at $8-10M easily (look at the arb situations for Prince and Howard). Now, if in 2011 he gets hurt and doesn't put up big numbers then he becomes a non-tender OR trade for very little candidate simply because through arbitration we won't be able to cut his salary sufficiently. Giving Carlos an extension that buys out his 3 arb years plus one FA year full of team options with buyouts makes the most sense IMO.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 07:21 PM) I'm kinda surprised they elected to protect Armstrong. They might as well add as many of the borderline players as they can while they can. Then when Kenny needs space on the 40-man because of a trade or signing he can clear spots one at a time.

QUOTE (Springfield SoxFan @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 05:11 PM) From Baseball America, does this mean that Harrell, Link, Marquez, Santeliz, Armstrong and Viciedo cannot be exposed to the Rule V draft? Not sure, especially with Viciedo, but he might be in a different circumstance. Chicago White Sox Signed: RHP Jacob Marceaux (re-signed), LHP Wander Perez (re-signed) Granted free agency: 1B Wilson Betemit Recalled: RHP Lucas Harrell, RHP Jon Link, RHP Jeff Marquez, RHP Clevelan Santeliz, C Cole Armstrong, 3B Dayan Viciedo Outrighted to Triple-A and removed from 40-man: OF Dewayne Wise The players you mentioned are all on the 40-man roster. Being on the 40 protects players from the Rule-5.

Official FanGraphs rankings: Jermaine Dye, RF: 0.2 Fingers/Butthole Nick Swisher, 1B/OF: 3.7 Fingers/Butthole

BTW I found this interesting too. I looked at a scouting report for Brent Morel when he was drafted, which says: That bolded part really caught my attention. I wonder if the Sox ever thought about that? With Beckham appearing to have captured 3B and Morel looking like a really solid player, a successful transition to catcher would raise his prospect status and trade value a ton.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 04:23 PM) The other side of that "Problem" though, that people won't necessarily love any version of this list, is that it's actually a good thing. You have a handful of legit guys at the top, and more than likely KW will either trade them for legit pieces or a good percentage of them will go on to become legit contributors to the big league ballclub. Then you have a whole lot of in-between guys who are either at the lower levels or who are moving up but aren't yet looking great...the odds are that if you have enough of those kind of guys, you'll be able to pull some decent big leaguers out of the list. In a way it's a good thing because it means we have depth in the lower levels, but it also sucks because it means we're weak in the higher levels after the trades and promotions. I really doubt Hudson even touches the minors next year whether he's with us or traded to another team. Shelby's stock fell this year also. It's basically Flowers and Viciedo as the big prospects in the higher levels with Retherford also being close.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 04:19 PM) Rodriguez has a long way to go, but I agree on Holmberg. Still, it's really hard to put him in the top 20 unless you are ranking completely on upside. I agree about Gonzalez, he showed a lot of rare abilities for such a young age. What you said about rankings is really the "problem" with this list. If you read John Sickels, he ranks 20 for every team and says after a certain number (usually around 10 depending on the system) the players are pretty much in a group of up to 20 or so that are interchangable. Different people and different likes and dislikes and it comes out looking kinda weird in a mix like this. I think both Santos and Holmberg could be higher based on upside but it's all subjective anyway. There are a few guys who are on there because of strong statistical seasons instead of scouting reports when others with better scouting reports didn't make it. And then there are those who are on there because of scouting reports while others with good statistical seasons missed. IMO, if you want to move into the top-10 in a decent system or the top-15 in a very good system you need to have both, so hopefully some of these guys will separate themselves in 2010. I agree also about Sickel's rankings. Every team has a bunch of guys in the "just missed" department and there are a ton of reasons for that. But mainly those players didn't do enough to really separate themselves from the pack so it's hard to argue about those guys.

I don't think anyone is going to LOVE this list simply because there are so many players to choose from when you get outside of our top 6-8 or so. Personally I'm most surprised about Miguel Gonzalez missing this list after the season he had as a rookie catching prospect. I understand it because we don't know a ton about him yet, but it's just kind of odd because 18-year-old catchers who hit the baseball open eyes very quickly. There are a lot of players capable of making big leaps up the rankings over 2010, like Morel and Retherford did this year, and Gonzalez is one of those guys.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 02:48 PM) I suggested targeting him after 2008 when he hit .228 with an OBP under .300. With his speed and defense, I thought he was a better option to rebound in 2009 than Owens, or Anderson. He had done well in his previous years showing the ability to hit for avg, and get on base. The question is, who out there has had a poor 2009, yet has the kind of tools that would fit in well with the sox needs [speed, defense, OBP, ability to hit for avg.]? It may be a young guy who struggled in his 1st or 2nd yr, though has had success in the minors. I would think that kind of young OFer would make more sense than trying to land a big name young gun who had a very good 2009 That may make sense from an economic standpoint, but there are problems: 1. Just about every team is looking to dump salary which means they're likelier to hang onto those guys 2. IMO the market for cheap young players is at it's highest point in quite a while, while veteran players are becoming undervalued, so the cost (in talent via trade) vs. risk (of the player not developing) aspect of acquiring such a player might not be worth the effort 3. Kenny wants to win in 2010, and veterans present a better chance of helping that cause Kenny is one of the best GM's in the game as far as evaluating talent, and you can't get any better than Hermie and his staff, so if the Sox find a young player that they really believe in who isn't going to cost an incredible package then I'd definitely be in favor of that. For now though, I'd look to find potential bargains on proven commodities who are at least versatile defensively and are also at an age where they can be expected to perform if healthy.

QUOTE (WCSox @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 01:09 PM) Agreed. I also agree about the "rotating DH" concept. Giving Flowers a day or two a week at DH and a day at C would be a great way to get him a lot of major-league at-bats. If Flowers is going to be here then that's the only scenario I'd be in favor of. Having him sit on the bench 4-5 games per week is not going to help him develop. That said, I still hope we shop Flowers heavily over the offseason.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 12:55 PM) ^^I was about to make a similar post but then I realized I've already done it. You can make another when this thread inevitably reaches 20 pages.

There's no way in hell I'd trade Floyd or Danks over Hudson. I too have been impressed with Danny, but Jesus Christ people! He's not the prospect that Project Prospect is saying he is and he hasn't done anything yet to show he's even half as valuable to us as each one of Floyd and Danks are. If/when Hudson shows he can be as good in the Majors as Floyd and Danks have been, then you can put him in that category. All I know is that if some other GM held Hudson in such high regard as Danks or Floyd, then I immediately open trade talks with that guy.

Definite FOTY candidate, which is no surprise because the WEC always provides at least one FOTY candidate per show. Hands down, it's the best promotion in the world. I'm really excited for 2010 because they're going to run like 10+ shows I believe. I'm happy Henderson won. I picked him to beat Cerrone, but I didn't think it was going to be that close. Cerrone showed more in that fight than he did vs. Varner IMO. I wasn't a big Cowboy fan going into last night but I am now.

Cody Ross and Coco Crisp are reasonable targets who can hit a bit and help us a lot on defense. There's not much else out there, and of the guys that are (Willingham, Luke Scott, David DeJesus, etc.) most of them do not belong in either RF or CF. Let's please get some OF defense this year. That means no Quentin in RF, no Pods in CF, no more Dyes or Abreus playing defense, etc. I'm sick of watching poor defensive OF play, and it makes no sense at all to put just an average or worse defense out there behind our pitching staff. And no thank you on Corey Hart. Pence might not be realistic, but he's probably a lot more realistic than Ethier or Kemp.

PLEASE LET THIS f***ING TOPIC f***ING DIE ALREADY!!!! THE HORSE'S EYES ARE ROTTED OUT AND THE MAGGOTS HAVE ALREADY MADE THEIR TRAVEL PLANS!!! THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO DISCUSS!!!!