Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 09:11 PM) I like the financial flexibility angle you're going with here. I agree with all of it, but how do we know we cannot afford him? Maybe Jerry opens his pockets this winter in order to go for it. This pitching staff is as good and as safe a bet as any this team has probably ever had. We need Bobby in that bullpen. Out of curiosity, where did you get the 7 million number? Could it be less based on his shaky performance this year, maybe round 4 mil? In general that's about what he'd be expected to get. He set a first-year arbitration record for closers of $5.(something) million last year that was broken the same day by Papelbon, who got a bit more. If Jenks had a great year he'd probably be in line for $8-9M but because he had a down year a good, conservative estimate would be about $7M. No one knows for sure, but I'd be absolutely shocked if he got less than $7M. The arbitration numbers are based off a few things. Each side (player's agent and the team) will submit a figure to an arbitrator and then the arbitrator will pick one side, and it's based on other things too like market conditions and previous contracts. Closers are still getting paid out the ass so it's unlikely that the Sox would offer anything less than about $6.5M if it went to arb, and Jenks' side would probably be around the $8M mark or so. The Sox practically never go to arbitration (I can't even remember a time when they did offhand) so the two sides will probably settle somewhere around the $7M mark without going to arb. So it's just a guess, but a very good one that has been repeated elsewhere.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 08:27 PM) Strikeouts may not be a priority for him because he's a groundball pitcher, but I'm still concerned about his walks. We are talking about a 22 year-old that has a long way to go with his control to be a Major League starter. Granted, he has a few years, but I don't see him as a top tier pitching prospect, even in our system. The Sox don't have a lot of lefties so, yes, he is arguably the best lefty pitching prospect in the system. I agree that his walks (and hits) are a problem, and I agree that he has a ways to go. But, so does everyone else we have. As far as starters go, we have Shirek, Harrell, and Ely all pretty close, but Shirek and Harrell are the only guys I could see putting ahead of the Leesman/Griffith/Infante/Upchurch/Holmberg/Heidenreich/etc. group and those guys are all far away too, and of course there will be some who don't see either Shirek or Harrell as starters anyway. Is Leesman a top-tier SP prospect in general? No, but we don't have one of those anyway. I'd definitely have him in my top-5 as a SP prospect in our system since its so weak in that area.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 07:30 PM) I don't know... The sentence looked to me like he was meaning to use "allude", which means "hints about." I know. I was just being a smelly butthole.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 08:26 PM) Why does everybody wanna give up on fatboy so fast? Dude has been nothing short of phenomenal since his arrival. He seemed a little shaky this year, but let's give him another look see. We almost have to since his stock is the lowest it has been since we snagged him up. Our bullpen becomes awful if we get rid of him. In the 9th inning of a 1 run, pressure packed situation, I still trust Bobby more than Matt; although the margin between the two is slimming (hopefully like fatboy this offseason). I think it's more an issue of financial flexibility. Jenks should make at least $7M in arbitration and the Sox aren't going to be hiking up the payroll. They'll have limited funds after the Rios and Peavy deals, plus arb to Carrasco, Pena, Quentin, and Danks with raises coming to Floyd and Thornton. Konerko will be hard to move without taking on a bad contract or eating salary and Linebrink will be almost impossible to move without taking on an equal bad contract. Jenks is the most logical candidate to be traded in order to free up payroll. I don't necessarily think the Sox are down on him at all.

QUOTE (SoxFanForever @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 06:28 PM) Any chance the Phils would move Werth? If they did it would have to be for very good MLB talent. They could easily end up in the World Series again this year.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 06:34 PM) He deserves a D for what he did in Chicago this year offensively. As far as next year? He deserves a clean slate to start next season. At least we've heard nothing about him having a bad attitude or being lazy so far. That's a good sign. Hopefully he'll have a good spring, impressing Oz and Kenny and not stagger into the season with no confidence. He's making a lot of money and will need to produce or he'll likely be the target of boo birds. Hopefully at the plate he won't resemble the guy we saw make out after out this year. Good post and I agree.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 07:02 PM) Does he elude whilst alluding? I think he means that Hawk dances around the Rios topic as he discusses the greatest pennant race in Major League history and the effect it had on the Red Sox organization.

I don't know who Tsunami is, but Earthquake and Typhoon are a formidable duo.

IMO, K/BB ratio is the worst peripheral to evaluate a prospect by so I just throw that one out whenever I see it. You don't always need a high K-rate to pitch in the Majors but you do usually need a low BB rate so it's better to look at things individually. K/BB can be extremely deceiving especially at the lower levels, because at the lower levels it is easy for players to pick up a high K/BB rate simply by having good control of fringe stuff (and this even works at all levels of the minors but won't work at all in the Majors), since K's are generally more a function of control + deception than stuff. Also K/BB makes guys with great stuff but who are wild in the zone look bad. The better stuff a guy has, and the more it moves, the harder it's going to be in most cases to control it and the higher that K/BB ratio will be. But when talking about MLB pitching prospects, movement is a very, very important thing, so you don't want to discount that. Plus K/BB rate seems to hurt guys who pitch to contact (like Leesman) and sides more with strikeout pitchers, and again, a lot of those MiLB "strikeout" pitchers aren't really strikeout pitchers, they're just control guys with varying levels of stuff. In Leesman's case, the K/9 rate could be higher and with improved command it will become higher, but he's not a 8.0+ K/9 type pitcher anyway, even in the minors, and he probably never will be a 7.0+ K/9 guy in the Majors if he gets there, but he doesn't have to be either, because he pitches to contact and gets groundballs. The BB/9 rate needs to come down, but it's good for a guy in Kanny and represents a nice improvement from his control in college. This is only Leesman's first full season. The H/9 rate is high, but again that comes down to command and developing his change and slider, especially his slider vs. LH because he'll need that to become an effective MLB reliever. And as a lefty who can work in the low-90's with sink, he should definitely get a chance to make it happen as a reliever if nothing else. Also, I doubt his defense in Kanny did him a whole lot of favors when it comes to his H/9. The WHIP being high is again all due to command. HR/9 is excellent. The groundball rate is very good, and in his case, aside from stuff and command, that's the most important thing for him IMO. The only thing I see is a talented guy who is doing well and needs to continue developing his command and secondary stuff like pretty much everyone else we have. IMO, his peripherals shouldn't have to be amazing for him to be considered one of our top pitching prospects now that DCarter and Poreda are gone and Danny Hudson will probably never see the minors again. I wouldn't rank him as THE top guy, but as far as starting prospects go, he would be right there in the mix for me.

QUOTE (daggins @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 05:01 PM) The Marlins also had a 36 million dollar payroll in 2009. Pretty sure they won't increase that amount enough to make paying Bobby a smart move. No team is going to want to pay their closer 15+% of payroll. I should add - unless he is a top 5 in baseball closer like joe nathan or mo rivera. then, maybe. Trading Jenks for Ross adds about $3M to their payroll if Ross gets $4M in arb and Jenks gets $7M, both of which I'd say are very likely. Removing $2.25M in Hermida pays for that. You can't use the salary % excuse when you're talking about a team with a payroll like the Marlins. They gave 10% of their payroll to Jorge Cantu last year.

QUOTE (daggins @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 04:54 PM) The Marlins have some interesting players they'll probably try to move to save money or lose to free agency. Nick Johnson, the revitalized Kiko Calero, Cody Ross, Jeremy Hermida, maybe even...Dan Uggla??!?!! It would take prospects to get Ross or Uggla but maybe it could be looked into? They were dangling Ross and Hermida for Matt Capps at the deadline. Bobby Jenks is about 1000X better than Matt Capps. Ross for Jenks is realistic IMO. Hermida could be non-tendered. Coughlan is there, as is Maybin who they haven't given up on yet, and then Stanton could be there as early as midseason. They'll be able to pay Jenks, especially if they deal Uggla this offseason.

QUOTE (daggins @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 04:49 PM) Jenks has little value to a team like the Nats or Marlins so that won't happen. The Phils have the need but i've heard their payroll is bumping against its ceiling. Maybe if the win the Series again. He might get some looks from the Angels, given Fuentes' disappointing season. Dunno what to expect, but it will happen fast if it happens at all. The Marlins need a closer. Unlike the Nationals, the Marlins have a lot of talent on the field. Mike Stanton (one of the best prospects in all of baseball) is on his way too.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 04:13 PM) yeah, I was in the "impressed" camp, but it's not like I think he's going to march towards a title run any time soon. I base it on his stand up looked decent, he actually did a good job for a little of blocking the take down and on his back he struggled overall, but had a real nice attempt or two using the cage as leverage. Again, he has a long way to go and at his age he probably won't get super far, but the guy works and showed a flash or two Yeah I agree. He impressed me a lot defending the takedown in the clinch, even if it was Roy Nelson trying to take him down (I don't think the EXC Kimbo could have stopped that), and he looked pretty light on his feet. He has power. I don't know if Pat Miletich is still training some guys on the side (he's supposedly trying to get back into the UFC as a fighter) but if he is, and if MFS isn't as f***ed up as Drew McFedries and co. would lead one to believe, then Kimbo is the perfect fit for Miletich. Kimbo doesn't have the time to round out his game, so he should just work on his striking and takedown defense. Once he's on the ground even low-end LHW's are going to be able to work him over.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 03:04 PM) Kimbo got exposed by a wrestler with limited ju-jitsu. What happens when he faces a heavy weight with a proper ground game. Someone that doesn't just sit on him. Kimbo is a one trick pony. He may knock you out. If he faces a striker he has a chance. If he faces anyone with a ground game he is done. On the other side of it, Roy's only thing going for him is he is fat, and can ride out the guy. He doesn't have enough of a presence on the ground to inflict damage. He also gets gassed pretty quickly. Nelson is actually the opposite. His BJJ is very strong (specifically his top game) but his wrestling is weak and his hands suck. Otherwise I agree, Kimbo is a one-trick pony. But it's still one trick that fans will pay good money to see, so he should make his contract worth it for a company with enough cash as Zuffa.

QUOTE (CanOfCorn @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 04:35 PM) Anyone know the Phillies org? Since Lidge has pretty much bit the big one...again...they might be interested in Bobby Jenks. But, I'm not familiar with their young prospects. They're still stuck with Lidge's salary though ($24.5M guaranteed through 2011 including a 2012 buyout). If they look for a closer it will have to be of the league minimum variety as they'd be stupid to pay about $18.5M for one closer.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 04:27 PM) You cant just look at it from the Sox perspective, why the hell would the Mets want Jenks? They didnt want him last year for our asking price and they sure as hell wont trade on of their best young prospects for a bullpen arm that wont even be their closer (since ya know, they kinda brought in a guy for that during FA last year) and is getting expensive. Agree, the Mets wouldn't make that deal. They have KRod and can bring Putz back for about $2M more than they'd have to pay Jenks. The Mets will probably let Putz go and will find a righty setup man on the open market for far less than Jenks will cost.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 04:29 PM) Check out Florida Marlins OF Chris Coghlan. This guy's stats are pretty good for being a rookie, yet I have heard nothing about him. Maybe he could be had. Does anybody know anything about him? Are his RBI totals low for a reason other than having to play on the Marlins? They're not trading him for what we would conceivably offer. Jenks for Cody Ross IMO. Use the savings to sign a lefty setup man and make Thornton the closer. That way we fill a hole (RF) without adding to the payroll.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 02:09 PM) Hudson I mentioned. I wanted to avoid 09 draft picks (no Serafin or Bellamy). Infante's 2nd half took him off a mention. Jones and Griffin I admit were close, but I didn't want to have the piece be too long. Leesman had a mediocre 2:1 K:BB ratio as a 22 year-old in Low-A. He's marginal right now. Carter got traded away so he's hardly a highlight. I like Sauer and a few of the relievers you mentioned, but it's a wait and see approach. The only guy I thought about mentioning and really should have is Remenowsky because his stats are eye popping. For the most part though, I didn't want to write about a dozen guys and lose everyone's interest half way in. From the draft: His velocity has reportedly been up a bit in our system as well. I remember hearing an interview with Cooper during a game in spring and someone (Hawk? Stone?) asked him to name which pitchers he had been most impressed by, and out of all the big arms we had in there, Charlie Leesman was the guy he named and raved about. That immediately put him on the map for me. His first full season with us has gone very well and I'm sure he's still making improvements on his command which is why he wasn't moved up. But as long as he's making progress with it that's all that is important, and Leesman has already bettered all of his peripherals at Xavier in our farm system. Also interesting when you look at his splits is that his GB% is 52.4% which is very nice out of a lefty and, having started 27 games, he has thrown 22 double plays. Also very nice out of a lefty. Leesman is definitely not marginal. I'd say currently our three best LHP prospects are Leesman, Holmberg, and Rodriguez, and right now I'd rank Leesman highest.

QUOTE (CanOfCorn @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 03:37 PM) But they gave a try-out to those two Indian cricket players... /green-ish They signed those guys, and IMO it was another great move. It doesn't matter if either player makes it. What is important is that they have gotten their name out there in India, and there are a lot of f***ing people in India. Who knows, maybe that small investment and the resulting publicity leads to the first great Indian prospect being discovered, signed, and developed by the Pirates organization?

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 03:04 PM) That and the whole wasting draft after draft after draft and failing to develop pitching worth a damn thing. Yeah, going with "safe picks" while spending payroll on mediocre veterans = lots of losing season. The Pirates have done a great job unloading though. I applaud them for ditching Jack Wilson (albeit too late) and Freddy Sanchez's 2010 option. Aside from the managing side (like the Duke thread I made in Talking Baseball), I really like what the Pirates have done lately. My favorite deal is the McLouth deal, because they took an overrated (but still very good) player who wasn't going to be part of their future and they traded him for 3 solid prospects. Gorkys could become a better version of Nyjer Morgan, and the pitchers they got back could end up as #3/#4 starters in the NL. I think the key for a rebuilding team is to try to put out about a 75-80 win ballclub with a very low payroll by stocking up on prospects who have a good shot to become near league-average players rather than holding out for one star prospect. Those average prospects who maybe aren't as toolsy but are better bets to play well in the Majors are always available, so I say stock up on them if you can by trading average or above-average MLB talent so you can look to create a cheap core of averageness. Then use the payroll to spend heavily on superstar prospects which will augment your average core. Then, hopefully, you can find yourself in a position where you have no major holes on the field, just a bunch of averageness, and you can at that point deal off excess prospects in your system for cheap, productive MLB players that will add to your win total without vastly increasing your payroll like is the case in free agency. The McLouth deal I feel takes that kind of direction which is why I like it so much, because McLouth isn't a star player but the other guys are pretty good bets to be average players. And from a Sox fan standpoint, if I were the Pirates GM and Kenny called me about trading for Matt Capps for example (not saying Kenny would), then instead of asking for a guy with a higher ceiling but smaller chance of making it, like a Jordan Danks, I'd rather throw in a small piece and try to get both Retherford and Morel, who don't have the ceiling but are good bets for around league average. Then take the salary savings from Capps and make a splash in international free agency. But anyway, I'm amazed that it has taken so long for an organization like the Pirates to take advantage of the broken Rule-4 draft and international signing systems. They seem to be doing it now though, and their trades are being smarter too. They're not holding out for some huge prospects, they're just looking for decent players, trimming salary, and spending a lot on the farm.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Oct 1, 2009 -> 02:42 PM) Case in point: Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson '03: Signed Jeff Suppan as a free agent '03: Traded Jeff Suppan (with Scott Sauerbeck who was acquired via Rule V) for Freddy Sanchez and Cash '08: Traded Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson That right there is maximizing Jeff Suppan's value. And trading for Matt Morris when you could have spent that money on prospects more than negates this. All it takes are a couple really bad deals to f*** everything up, and the Pirates have done that a lot over the years. However, the new regime is being a lot smarter about how and where they are spending. I for one really liked the McLouth deal for them.

I just saw on the UG that Dana wants Kimbo vs., Houston Alexander. That makes sense because watching Kimbo fight last night totally reminded me of Houston Alexander. Tiger on the feet, kitten on the ground.

We should be able to keep Omogrosso. If we don't add him then I doubt anyone else will either given his injury. Marrero, Shelby, and Gartrell will be added IMO. Harrell shouldn't be dropped from the 40-man, and if he goes it'll be in a trade. I'd like to keep Socolovich but I think he's a goner in the minor league phase. Rasner possibly too. Cook, Wassermann, Fernando Hernandez, DRod, Whisler, Kroeger and possibly Cole Armstrong should all find jobs to compete for in another organization. I'd say all of them except Armstrong have a shot a winning a job with a bad club with DRod, Hernandez and Wassermann being the best bets.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Sep 30, 2009 -> 09:11 AM) Brandon Hynick Brian Omogrosso Christian Marrero John Shelby Stefan Gartrell Miguel Socolovich Luis Sierra Jake Rasner Derek Rodriguez David Cook Ehren Wassermann Josh Kroeger Wes Whisler Carlos Torres Cole Armstrong Lucas Harrell Fernando Hernandez lol

So that sucks. Ben Revere is a pretty badass prospect too and I'm sure he'll give us fits when he's ready.