Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 10:59 AM) Im hiding in back. There is no shame in coming home with a non-broken face Chael Sonnen applauds your wisdom.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Oct 20, 2009 -> 12:43 PM) Hooray for Gordon! PS I have a question for the SoxTalk mods. Is there a way to add some kind of sword-swinging/dragon slayer smiley to the site? Because that would be a great smiley to use for Beckham. Can anyone answer this? I'd really like to be able to use a slayer smiley. These things must exist somewhere, right? Maybe on a Dungeons and Dragons forum somewhere? Or on a horror film fan site?

Looks like Wise isn't coming back.... Merry Christmas everyone!

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 05:45 PM) I've chimed in on this before but I really just don't buy BABIP as meaningful at all when talking about offensive players. For pitchers yes, but for hitters, not so much. It's an elaborate, but generally useless post-hoc rationalization people have for explaining when a player has a down year, and has turned into a total myth in itself. Average isn't linked to BABIP. BABIP comes about as a result of a player making contact with the ball, which also determines his batting average. It doesn't take a genius to see that things aren't going well for a player when his average is a couple dozen points lower than it is, and BABIP is just re-stating what is completely obvious. Players with high batting averages (Ichrio, Mauer) will always have high BABIP, players with low batting averages (Swisher, Dunn) will have a low BABIP. BABIP gets used as an excuse for players when they aren't hitting and as a dismissal when they're hot and then "luck" is brought into the equation. Again, you don't need to look at BABIP to know when they're slumping like Dye did or when they're red hot like Adam Jones was for the first few weeks of this season because that's been happening as long as baseball has existed and there are any number of reasons that could happen. Take a look at those numbers for Jeter. Yes his BABIP changes year to year but generally speaking they're about 30 to 50 points higher than his average, which also changes, just as every other baseball player who has ever played since the game was invented has had happen. If you pick a random player you'll see the same kind of cushion, and the difference doesn't fluctuate that wildly. How so many people buy into this reverse logic of BABIP carrying the batting average I'll never know. If I played in the major leagues my BABIP would be like .050 and I wonder if anyone would call me unlucky, when in fact I really just suck at baseball. Awesome. f***ing. Post.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 05:48 PM) I love Nix, but he got favorable matchups and that skewed his numbers up. Not that there is anything wrong with this, because that's exactly how he should be used. I see no evidence that he will be able to suddenly start hitting RHP if he gets a full season of ABs. That will probably drop him below the Mendoza line actually, not push him up to .260 or whatever people are projecting for him. If the idea of him hitting .260 was plausible then there would be no question who the 2B was. I agree with all of this.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 03:25 PM) It's overwhelmingly in Nix' favour, he would have been worth 16.7 runs more than Getz this year on defense if left to play every day. Getz' offense was worth 7.3 park adjusted runs less than an average offensive 2B this year in 102 games, which over 150 games comes to 10.74 runs below average. Now just for proving my points sake, lets say Nix is twice as bad offensively as Getz (which is not even close to being correct as they were almost identical offensively this year), so if Nix' offense is worth 10.74 runs less than Getz' over a full year he's still worth about 6 runs more than Getz due to his vastly superior defensive ability, and therefore, hence point number 4. Your whole argument for Getz being better than Nix is based solely on batting average, and as we've seen, batting average is heavily influenced by luck. If Nix gets a shot next year, his luck levels out and his BABIP sits near his xBABIP of .289 (probability, research, history tells us this is likely to happen) then I don't see any reason why Nix can't post a slash line in the region of .250/.350/.450 with outstanding defense, and you can be sure, that is better than anything Getz will ever be able to do. All this "wins" stuff and heavy statistical potato-mashing I don't get into at all. I try to judge a player by watching him play and by using real statistics to gauge performance while trying to keep in mind league and park factors. This BABIP stuff doesn't mean anything to me. I don't believe in luck. And I don't know why people would sit there and try to make an argument based on black cats and rabbit feet when you have a plethora of real statistics sitting right there in front of you. The UZR stuff also has its problems which Chisoxfn alluded to, but I will agree that Nix is the better defender. The difference between Getz and Nix however is not nearly as great as you believe. My whole argument is NOT based SOLELY on batting average. Batting average is just one point, and it's a reason why Getz always has and IMO always will get on base more. I also pointed out how Nix sucks at making contact, how he can't hit RHP, how he has pretty much no power vs. RHP, and how he doesn't have the MiLB track record that Getz does. You are thinking Nix could do a hell of a lot better if given full playing time, while I actually believe he'd do worse, since over the course of a season *he is going to face a lot more RHP than LHP* so his splits aren't going to be roughly equal as was the case in 2009. About defensive value, let me ask you this, honestly. Who was the better 2B for us, Willie Harris or Tadahito Iguchi? I'll say Willie Harris was, and by a pretty wide margin, and I'll also say that Iguchi's offense faaaaar outweighed Harris' overall package. Getz doesn't have the power Iguchi has, but Getz is capable of hitting for a higher average, getting on at about the same rate or better, and also stealing quite a few bases while he's at it. Getz is furthermore capable of hitting 1 or 2 in a batting order because of his ability to play the fundamental game offensively, and that is not something Nix can do. Nix is a #9 hitter only. Nix's "power" is blinding you people. Danny Richar IMO has as much power as Nix, in fact, I'd trade Nix straight up for Danny Richar right now because I think Danny is/was a better player. If you think that's crazy, look at their stats. Danny Richar is a better hitter. Danny makes more contact and has a much quicker bat. I fail to see anything in Nix's history that says his 2009 offensive season was an aberration in any area other than power numbers, which are too high. Getz is the baseball player who knows his role, Nix is the bench guy who is there for PH duties and defense.

QUOTE (chisoxfan09 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 02:13 PM) Does anyone think bashing/raking the ball in the AFL counts to increase the value of a prospect? I have heard mostly that the thin air makes the ball tend to fly so while the experience is good the value gained is not as good as playing time say in AA/AAA. I ask because if Viciedo rakes does this make him a more valued trading chip since we are on the subject of dangling him in a package for Agon. Also the Baron's field seems to be similar to Petco in that it s not hitter friendly so would that possible fact turn off the Padres to including Viciedo? Anywhere a hitter performs he's going to look good. The AFL is huge because tons of scouts and high-ranking baseball execs watch the games. I don't think anyone comes into the AFL as a mediocre prospect and leaves a great prospect, and similarly I doubt anyone walks in a great prospect and leaves as a mediocre prospect. It just brings players more attention basically. No park will be able to contain Viciedo's power if he develops so I doubt they'd be all too concerned about that. Also, there has been no indication whatsoever that the Sox are even thinking about moving Viciedo. I'm just going on about it because I have a man-crush on Gonzalez and I realize that, if we could make that deal, Viciedo would have to go. But he'd be the last guy in our system that I'd actually want to trade.

QUOTE (chisoxfan09 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 02:05 PM) Who on the farm or waiting in the wings would replace Getz? Possibly Retherford if we kept him. But we'd probably hit the trade or free agent market first.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 02:02 PM) It's a serious package but it's not one that other teams (i.e. Boston, NY) couldn't beat. We traded Javy to the Braves because the Braves couldn't land Peavy. Javy was their fallback plan. However, Flowers was one of the supposed centerpieces during the Braves talks for Peavy. We all hear/read the hype around the Yankees and Red Sox prospects, and they have some very good ones, but if the Padres people are in love with Tyler Flowers and Dayan Viciedo for example, and we're willing to offer those players, then none of that other stuff matters. All we can do is put an offer out there and see what happens. But it's not like teams make deals based upon rankings in publications such as Baseball America.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 01:48 PM) I don't see a deal like this getting done without Gordo. Maybe not. All I'm saying is that we should try. And I wouldn't give them Beckham, CQ, Floyd, or Danks. They could take Alexei if they absolutely had to, but they'd have to give us Cabrera (why didn't the Rockies protect him?) in the process. They could have Getz though, and anyone on the farm.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 01:50 PM) They tried last year, he turned us down. He also said it was a tough decision that he left in the hands of his agent, plus we didn't make a really big offer or anything. We'll need to offer quite a bit more this time around, but we should still try it IMO. Ditto with Carlos and Beckham. I wouldn't mind buying out Alexei's two arb years either.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 01:35 PM) Haha, I'm gonna blame it on getting engaged...my useless sports info takes a backseat, haha. Congratulations! I didn't know that. Now you make me feel bad for putting so much stock into useless sports info.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 01:22 PM) I am patronitzing it because Nix isn't an MLB starter. No one who hits like he did should even be considered for an everyday job. If he had upside and ever showed the ability to actually be a hitter that would be one thing, but all he's shown is that he's a very one-dimensional offensive player. Luckily those that understand how the game of baseball is actually played (its not on a calculator by the way), realize this and know that there is so much more than spitting out OPS or calling guys averages "empty". Getz is so much more of a ball-player than Nix and brings so many other things to the table. Does that mean Getz is an all star 2B, absolutely not. But I think he brings a ton to the table. Especially when you look at the Sox and realize some of there biggest problems have been due to the fact that they have guys that can't hit for high averages or get on base at a high clip. I think Getz upside as an average to a slightly above average defensive 2nd baseman who has a shot at being a near .300 hitter with very good speed. To me that upside is far greater than a 2B who hits .220 with 20HR's and 170 or so strikeouts. Not to mention over a full-season I fully believe we'd see Nix major swing-flaws (he's got a very long swing) get taken advantage of by advanced scouting and solid to good major league pitching. Nix has the ability to be a good utility player in the sense that he can provide power off the bench and a solid eye, but the key to him will be to shorten his swing and improve his defense at SS and 3B because back-ups that can only play 2B above average and don't hit a lot aren't going to have an extensive major league career. Agree with all of this. I was going to put the "baseball player" tag on Getz in my post above but didn't because those things always lead to arguments. Basically Getz has what it takes to stick in the Majors as a starter at 2B, even if he turns out to be another David Eckstein (a common comparison coming up) and is the type of player who is always kind of s*** on for not being exceptional in any given area. Nix OTOH - a lot has to go right for him, and all it takes is a couple months - if that - of hitting .220 to get dropped from an MLB roster. Once that happens it is hard to come back.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 01:23 PM) I think I assumed from his draft day scouting report that he was a lefty and went with it. And your probably right. Probably one of the biggest gaffes I've ever had. Feel like a boob for being wrong for like 4 years on something that basic, haha. Damn, don't be so hard on yourself man. Cassel is so far down on the list of guys to watch that it doesn't really matter IMO.

QUOTE (longshot7 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 11:55 AM) Randy Williams? Jimmy Williams = Randy Williams + Jimmy Gobble?

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 17, 2009 -> 04:37 PM) I wouldn't give up big prospects for a 1st baseman. First base and DH are the easiest positions to replace. It may be the case that the 1B position is easier to fill with league-average talent than many others, but when you start talking about players who are capable of belting out 40 HR's, walking over 100 times, and posting an OPS near 1.000, those guys don't exactly grow on trees, regardless of position. Gonzalez's numbers have been ascending over the years, and he put up an OPS of .958 last year playing half his games at PetCo with no protection. The thought of a sophomore Gordon Beckham and a healthy CQ hitting around that beast makes me wanna... and I'll just leave it at that.

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 12:07 PM) (1) AGon doesn't have a big salary for the Padres to dump, he's cheap and good, (2) the Padres already turned down a deal from the Red Sox (reportedly) that was a lot better than anything we could offer. I don't know about that. The Red Sox offered a ton, but it depends on what scouts are looking for and what a team's needs are. Hudson + Viciedo + Flowers + Danks + more is a pretty sick offer. IIRC it came out that during the Halladay talks the Blue Jays' people liked Casey Kelly more than anything else the Red Sox had to offer, even though most people probably would have seen Clay Buchholz as the #1 piece offered. There may be a general consensus of a team's top prospects, but none of us know what players the scouting directors and player development heads around the league like the most out of any given organization. All I know is that if a deal is out there we'll be able to make a strong offer, and I hope Kenny does that.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 11:25 AM) Wow, I've thought for like 4 years that he was a lefty. I'm a dumbass. I swear when he was drafted they announced him as a lefty and I never look at stuff like that once I get something in my head. My bad. Were you thinking of Justin Edwards maybe? Same first name, both have underwhelming stuff, taken same year in the draft, both had minor league success, etc. Edwards is the lefty.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 08:39 AM) 1. Nix' walk rate was much better than Getz' last year and his career walk rate is also much better than Getz', so that right there is just untrue. 2. While Nix' average was low his BABIP was also ridiculously low at .251 (to Getz' .301), and using an xBABIP calculator (for expected BABIP) Nix should have been at .289 (BABIP), giving him a luck adjusted batting average somewhere around .260-.265. 3. Power is obviously a huge win in Nix' favour. And if that's not enough: 4. Nix' defensive value at 2nd is worth more than Getz' offensive and defensive value combined, this is due to Nix being a very good defender with great range and Getz being below average both offensively and defensively. I agree that Getz is the clear favourite but not because he's the better option, but rather management, or should I say Ozzie, is largely clueless. Yeah, because a 2B who is on pace to K about 130 times per season with a career batting average just above the Mendoza line (.206) is really such a fantastic option in the first place. To address your other points: 1. Nix walks more often, but his batting average consistently sucks which is why Getz has always gotten on base more. In the Majors, Getz's career OBP is .323 at while Nix's is .295. In the minors, Get has a career .362 OBP vs. a .332 OBP for Nix. Both players will draw walks, but because Getz actually puts the bat on the ball he's a better bet to get on base. 2. Using BABIP to add 36-41 points to Nix's batting average is ridiculous. He's a career .261 hitter in the minors for God sakes. I guess he's been "unlucky" his entire professional career. Call me crazy, but I just think he's a s***ty hitter. So please, tell me why Nix is a .260+ hitter in the Majors. His best professional seasons have come in the PCL while repeating AAA. 3. Yes, Nix has much more power than Getz. However, those power numbers are misleading. In a roughly equal sample size, Nix slugged .496 in 121 AB against lefties, but he only slugged .328 in 134 AB vs. righties. Why would anyone expect those power numbers to show up vs. RHP? Keep in mind the 40 K vs. RHP compared to the 24 K vs. LHP. 4. Oh please. Getz may not be as strong as Nix is defensively, but you're actually saying Nix is soooo much better in the field that Getz cannot effectively replace him despite being the better hitter? And BTW I personally see Getz as average in the field, not below average, so I don't know what you're looking at. If you were using some metric then it wasn't RF/G or RF/9 since Getz beats him in both of those as a 2B.

That's pretty awesome. Watch out for the fireworks, lol. If they went after Babalu, they'll go after you too.

My 104 picks: Main Card Bouts: -Lyoto Machida (15-0; #1 Light Heavyweight)* vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3; #5 Light Heavyweight)* -Cain Velasquez (6-0; #8 Heavyweight)* vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6) -Josh Neer (25-8-1) vs. Gleison Tibau (17-7) -Joe Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23-4) -Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3) Preliminary Bouts: -Yushin Okami (23-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1) -Pat Barry (4-1) vs. Antoni Hardonk (8-5) -Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4) -Ryan Bader (9-0) vs. Eric Schafer (11-3-2) -Kyle Kingsberry (7-2) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (6-1) -Chase Gormley (6-0) vs. Stefan Struve (17-3) It would have been nice for the MMA Weekly people to put Hassan on the left side for me so I could pick all left side fighters. That said, a lot of these fights look pretty close. I hope Rothwell knocks Velasquez's block off.

The bleacher report is basically a bunch of retarded stenographers with sports radio on. The only times they ever get s*** right are when real sources report it first.

QUOTE (flavum @ Oct 20, 2009 -> 01:41 PM) Is Retherford up for be being placed on the 40-man next month? Probably not becaus he's not one of the players we're forced to add. When he gets added it'll probably be because he made the team. All I know is that, if he's still here come Spring Training, Jayson Nix has a hell of a battle ahead of him if he wants to keep his job.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Oct 20, 2009 -> 02:35 PM) Does anyone know whether or not he's throwing pain free at the end of the year though? Maybe he is just "gutting up" to get maximum velocity and his control goes out the window. Someone was mentioning, I forget who, that his main problem was location not stuff. A lot of people here have said that. Location and pitch selection have been huge problems for him. His fastball is still hard and it still sinks, and his splitter is still nasty, so if he could just work lower in the zone more often instead of constantly thigh-high or above, and if he could try *really hard* to not start off every freaking hitter with a meatball right down the middle of the plate, then maybe he could be successful all year long again. You might be right about him just looking for velocity. Maybe there's pain and he's trying to suck it up so he ends up overthrowing. I kind of think it might be a mental thing that leads to a mechanical thing where he can't get the damn ball down, but whatever the case, I'm sure Coop knows what's wrong. I just hope that whatever Coop sees is correctable, i.e. Linebrink is someone Coop will be able to work with. PS Welcome to SoxTalk!

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 20, 2009 -> 01:48 PM) Considering the talent that Lowe is, and his similarities, in terms of statistics, to Thornton, I would just be curious as to what Soxtalkers would propose in deals that were sending him away. I tend to think we would be asking just as much. Thornton > Mark Lowe. Thornton is lefty and has been doing it longer. Lowe is just coming off his first full season of good baseball. I'd ask for a prospect like Danks and something else, but it would be insane to ask for a Major Leaguer like Danks. Outside of a few mega bats like Pujols and superstars on dirt-cheap contracts like Longoria, there is nothing more valuable in baseball than very good, young, left-handed starting pitching. If I were Kenny and Seattle called to offer me that package, I'd laugh, hang up the phone, and about a week later the post office would deliver their GM a turd in a box.