chw42

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 18, 2011 -> 07:30 AM) Not at all. To go along with Milk's comment, Halladay's numbers should have been better, just like the Phillies should have won the NL, but it doesn't always work out that way. It's not that they should have been better. Halladay's numbers were perfectly normal and neutral in terms of luck (.298 BABIP). On the other hand, Kershaw had a .270 BABIP against when his batted ball rates were inferior to that of Halladay's. On average, Halladay gave up less balls in play that were likely to leave the yard and induced more weak pop outs than Kershaw. Their LD%, which more or less determines a pitcher's BABIP due to their likelihood to fall for hits, were almost the same. The difference was more or less contributed to defense and luck. BUT, that is only me trying to explain the difference in their WHIPs. When you adjust their ERAs to their home parks, the two are literally on par. In fact, Halladay was 1% better. If you're really trying to find who the best pitcher is, you need to put them on equal ground. Kershaw had an advantage by pitching in a pitcher's park while Halladay pitched in a neutral park that slightly favored hitters. That alone says Halladay was better in terms of ERA. As for the Phillies not winning the NL, you tell me if 5 games is enough to determine who the better team really is.

QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Nov 16, 2011 -> 01:29 PM) Jeez, it's getting ugly...kiss this season good bye and I just bought NBA 2K12, that'll have to do for me this season. The Assocation should keep you busy.

Finished MW3. At least they finished up the story this time.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Nov 17, 2011 -> 11:41 AM) I like Danks to the Reds idea. How about Danks to the Reds for Alonso and Homer Bailey. The Reds rotation of Danks, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez(when he gets back), and Leake makes Bailey's more expendable.Not to mention they have also have Travis Wood. KW likes both guys. The Sox may have to throw in something but this trade seems feasable. Alonso the can play OF with DeAza and Viciedo. Quentin could be dealt to Atlanta for Beachy and give their rotation 3 young arms in Beachy, Sale, and Bailey to go along with Peavy and Floyd. The Reds could also use a guy like Thornton as they really missed the role Arthur Rhodes filled for them. Why not make it a big deal and get Grandal as well? I guess alot of that depends on what kind of future the Sox think Flowers actually has. I very much doubt Atlanta would trade Beachy for CQ. I'd love it if that happened though.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 17, 2011 -> 11:02 PM) Just like the Phillies should have won a playoff series or two. Hey, Halladay wasn't the reason they lost. Unless you want to blame him for their inadequacies on offense.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 17, 2011 -> 11:00 PM) Exactly. They blitzed eight guys, so as long as he gets to the outside he has all this free room to run, which is the only thing he can do. Sit back in coverage, make him beat you with his arm Rex, bad coaching. It should be interesting when the Bears head to Denver. I'm thinking Lovie won't be dumb enough to let him beat the Bears like that, but Urlacher/Briggs do have the size & speed to keep up with him. MVP of tonight = Von Miller. That kid is a f***ing beast. The defense should be fine. Like you said, Urlacher and Briggs have the speed to keep up. Plus, with cover 2, Tebow will have a hard time getting beyond the 2nd level. Guys who are accurate are deadly to the Bears' scheme. Tebow's probably the most inaccurate starting QB in the NFL right now.

The Jets didn't live up to their promise. How can you let Tebow do you like that? Teams will learn in time I guess.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 17, 2011 -> 10:07 PM) All I'm reading is a bunch of paragraphs that basically say, "Halladay should have won because his numbers should have been better." Because he was and his numbers were better (at least the ones that really matter).

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 17, 2011 -> 04:21 PM) The extra wildcard team idea is just a way to make sure Boston doesn't miss another playoff appearance. Now they can get BOS, NY, and TB in every year. Lol pretty much. On the bright side, the Sox would have gotten in in 2006 if this system was in place back then. Eh...

As one of the saber nerds on this site...I will nitpick because I can and I truly believe Halladay was a better pitcher last season. It's very hard to argue that Kershaw was better if you dig deeper into this. ERA- (ERA adjusted to park factors, lower the better) Kershaw: 62 Halladay: 61 The .06 difference in WHIP is explained by Kershaw's 29 point advantage in BABIP. But here are the batted ball rates for the 2 pitchers Halladay LD%: 18.5% GB%: 50.9% FB%: 30.6% Kershaw LD%: 18.2% GB%: 43.2% FB%: 38.6% LD% is nearly identical while Halladay actually induced more GBs and less FBs. Halladay also induced weaker contact on fly balls with a higher IFFB%. Halladay's batted ball rates are better across the board, yet still had a 30 point differential in BABIP. This difference could be explained by overall defense. The Dodgers had a team UZR of +4.2, good for 11th in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Phillies' -10 UZR is 17th. The Dodgers were 15th in DRS while the Phillies finished 28th. So basically, there is NO difference between these two pitchers in terms of surface stats such as ERA and WHIP. Once you adjust the ERA to park factors and their WHIPs to defense, they are the same exact pitcher on the surface. The difference lies in Halladay's superior peripherals. FanGraphs had Halladay at 8.2 WAR, Kershaw at 6.8. The 1.4 win difference is quite a lot. Baseball Reference had Halladay at .3 wins better. Halladay had a better K:BB, HR rate, walk rate, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-, and better batted ball rates across the board. Meanwhile, Kershaw led in W, ERA, Ks, and WHIP while pitching in a pitcher's park and a division with two well below average offenses in the Padres and Giants. Halladay just wins in far too many rate categories that are of more substance than the counting stats. He was clearly the better pitcher and there should be very little to debate about that. Speaking of strength of opposition... wRC of teams faced Kershaw, (33 teams), average team wRC of 667.9 Halladay (32 teams), average team wRC of 675.3 Average wRC+ of hitters faced Halladay: 93.73 Kershaw: 91.66 On average, Halladay faced better hitters. Call it nitpicking or what not, but Halladay was clearly better. Remember this...the writers vote for who wins. Kershaw is the far better story (23 years old, first Cy Young, nice surface numbers the average fan would understand). Giving it to Halladay again would be boring and the writers wouldn't have much to write about. Even though he was the better pitcher and that is what the Cy Young is about. Note to J4L: I'd like to see you argue against this.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 17, 2011 -> 01:41 AM) DeJesus is pretty lousy. Yeah he was last season. Even then, he was better than Rios, much better I may add. DeJesus has a career .356 OBP. He's well worth the risk. Even in a down year last season, he had a .323 OBP and played good defense in RF. Considering he played half of his games in Oakland, that's not as bad as it really seems.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 16, 2011 -> 07:14 AM) It was 18 relievers with a higher WAR than Valverde, not 18 closers. I'm betting that most of those 18 were not closers, but yeah, I agree that WAR is not a great measure for closers. FWIW, Valverde was 2nd in the AL in WPA, first among closers. Only David Robertson had a higher WPA. Valverde also led the league in shut downs (saves or good appearances in close game situations) with 38. His 5 meltdowns were the second lowest for a closer. So Valverde really did have a great season if you view things from a win probability perspective. His peripherals were far from excellent though. Which probably means he won't repeat what he did this past year.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 16, 2011 -> 08:53 AM) Willingham could be a great pick-up for someone. I think he had like 25+ homers the last few years playing in that cavern in Oakland. If I were him I would stay away from Minnesota and finally go to a hitters park. I've always liked his game. He won't kill you in the OF and he's a very good hitter. Extremely underrated.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 17, 2011 -> 02:15 AM) Great defensive OF, great base stealer, takes a lot of walks, has "some" power, leadoff hitter, is under team control for 4 more years I believe. His only drawback, as far as I can tell, is that he doesn't hit for a great average, but he takes a enough walks that he still has a pretty good OBP. If he can get his AVG up to .280ish, he could definitely put together a .400 OBP and steal 50+ bases. Do want. He's like Juan Pierre in his prime. Except his OBP is better.

QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Nov 15, 2011 -> 09:34 PM) Pretty sure the marquee players can still earn a fat paycheck playing in leagues in Europe and other parts of the world, don't think you'll see D Rose applying for a job at Wal-Mart. Definitely not, but a majority of the players might have a hard time. Even if they've made millions in previous years. We all know how irresponsible some NBA players are with their money.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 15, 2011 -> 01:19 PM) Glad no morons put Sabathia first. No surprises in the voting. WAR is maybe not a great measure for closers. No way anyone in their right mind would have rather had 18 closers more so than Valverde last year. I think Valverde's screw ups in mop up time screwed with his peripherals, meaning poorer numbers. He was definitely top 10 last season considering how good he was in save situations. Still, the joke is that he got 5th somehow, ahead of Dan Haren.

QUOTE (Real @ Nov 15, 2011 -> 12:00 AM) De Aza is a fringe AAA/MLB player, hell no he isn't an MLB leadoff hitter. Did you watch him play last season?

I thought Pineda should have won in the AL, but I don't think Hellickson was a horrible choice. Mark Trumbo finishing second though...? Not so sure about that one.

QUOTE (Stocking @ Oct 29, 2011 -> 03:54 AM) traded murray for julio jones Unless your WR depth sucked or you were just stacked at RB, I don't really like the deal.

I'm actually glad I made this deal. Even though Jackson is sitting on my bench doing nothing, MJD has been very useful with Bradshaw out. My WR depth allowed me to absorb whatever I lost with Megatron.

QUOTE (cws0591 @ Nov 14, 2011 -> 03:58 PM) cod MW3 is very fun, but as always an aggravating play online. The spawning reminds me of world at war's if anyone experienced it. sometimes one can spawn in the exact location as an enemy and knife leading to some serious rage. Spawning is just bad. both the additions are very fun in team defender and kill confirmed. Though team defender exemplifies what I am talking about with spawning. The enemies spawn very close to the flag carrier which leads to enemies spawning right behind the defending team a lot. Sniping is kind of a joke, a bullet almost always kills with one shot(no complaint) but the problem is that they are so damn easy to aim with the sway in the gun is very light and it is unnecessary to even hold ones breath when using a sniper. On the other hand I have no real issue with any of the maps. Taking all of this into account the online experience is definitely addicting and I will be at this game for some time(battlefield what?). CoD online is for everyone. It's a game that makes you feel good, even if you suck at FPS games. I definitely like it. Battlefield is for the more experienced and strategic players. It's a hell of a lot more realistic (both visually and gameplay-wise) and it requires team-play to be successful. I guess it's just whatever floats your boat.

QUOTE (Cali @ Nov 14, 2011 -> 05:56 PM) So weird that the Sox could potentially be playing a team they beat in the World Series only 8 years earlier, every season... I wish they would put Houston in the AL Central and move the Royals or Twins to the West.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 14, 2011 -> 05:49 PM) I would LOVE that line over 600 PA from him next year. Add in good defense (say +5 for the sake of it) and he's a 4-5 WAR player depending on how sucky league scoring remains next season. What a bargain that would be...

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 14, 2011 -> 03:09 PM) SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman Prospective astros owner Jim crane has agreed to go to AL in 2013. He gets about $50M discount to go. He still needs vote of owners Well, this totally screws up the Back to the Future prediction of Miami vs. Cubs in the 2015 World Series. For a second there, I thought that was going to become true with the Cubs getting Epstein and the Marlins changing their name.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 14, 2011 -> 05:37 PM) Huh? lmao, that's something from Boers and Bernstein.