chw42

Don Cooper the magic man.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 08:16 PM) What, not the EJackulator? I totally said something similar...like EJaxculate, a couple of days ago.

Great start by EJax thus far. The control has been just awesome. It's just one start, but it appears Don Cooper's already paying off.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:50 PM) Kotsay had an OPS of .384 in April and .504 in July. Freddy Garcia has a career OPS of .434. Just sayin. Such a joke he is. Apparently, Carlos Quentin would have a .937 OPS if he wasn't unlucky like Mr. Kotsay, according to my "What IF?" calculator. I don't see people complaining about Quentin being "unlucky".

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:45 PM) Are you a member at fangraphs? If not you should be. Yes I'm a registered member.

QUOTE (MattZakrowski @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:31 PM) Sharing is caring. Just saying... It's not a standalone app yet. I'm working on it, it'll calculate an expected BABIP and then based off that, it will spit out a expected AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Maybe I'll port this onto C and make an .exe when I have time. FWIW, it is only good for certain types of players, like guys who have really low BABIPs.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:03 PM) That was a lot of work just to say, "Yeah, the guy really does suck." It's still good research though. I made a mistake, I'm trying to incorporate this whole projection system into one application and I did something wrong with the home runs. But it appears that he's really supposed to hit .258 with a .339 OBP. And it turns out his new OPS that is corrected is actually .732. So he's even crappier.

I almost regret posting what I just did about Kotsay's xBABIP and his new projected numbers. You know somebody's just going to put that to use in a bad way...

With my newly programmed xBABIP calculator, I found out that Mark Kotsay's expected batting average on balls in play is .266. His current batting average on balls in play is .217. That's a nice difference of 49 points. Kotsay has hit 217 balls in play that have not been home runs. So he has 44 hits that are not home runs based on his current BABIP. If we take the .266 figure up to those 217 balls in play, he would have 58 hits + 6 home runs, or 64 hits. 64 divided by his 234 at bats is a .274 batting average. His new OBP would be .356. Looking at how Kotsay gets his hits, we can derive a possible slugging percentage. 66% of Kotsay's hits are singles. 22% are doubles. 12% are home runs. So if we take that up to the new figure of 64 hits, we would have 42 singles, 14 doubles, 8 home runs. This results in a SLG of .436. That results in an OPS of .792. This would be a wOBA of .346 and would be 2.86 runs above replacement. Take that factor to his WAR and he would worth +0.2 wins instead of the -1 win figure. I know, I know, this is all quite shocking, but keep in mind Kotsay is not your average Major League Baseball player, so the he may not be hitting line drives all that hard or fly balls all that far. He has been unlucky, but he should not be perceived as a valuable player. Even if this was a perfect world, Mark Kotsay would be a replacement level DH.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 03:22 PM) Shoot that over to the Ranger. He doesn't care for things like WAR, UZR, etc. He'll just tell you about how "subjective" UZR is while telling you of his opinions.

Come on Ejax, prove most of us wrong.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 01:57 PM) Not the best photo of Rihanna I must say. Most things I see her in look amazing but the photo they used was meh. Matt Kemp's relationship with Rihanna should probably explain his horrible season this year.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 11:28 AM) After watching some video clips, sale does not hold his shoulder in internal rotation (W position) near as long as Strasberg. While the mechanics aren't ideal, Sale's tendency for injury is less than that of Strasberg. Well this is very good news then.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 12:23 PM) General thought around here is that Paulie is leaving and Dayan is your new 1B. I think this organization would love to play Dayan at 3B. Much more valuable.

Color me selfish or whatever, but I almost don't want to see Paulie get too many MVP votes. That could mean more money next year to bring him back.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 11:51 AM) I think it was Kalapse that wanted us to take a chance on Beltre. He gave a pretty good analysis on why he wasn't anywhere near the contract albatross he was perceived to be in Seattle. I think he and Vlad have been the two best bargains in baseball this year. But hey, we got Teahen and Kotsay. What more can one ask for? I've been in love with Beltre for a good two years now. The dude can hit, Safeco killed him though.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 11:22 AM) Brett and his Crocs I wonder if this will make his "comeback" a little tougher...

So Manny is actually hurt...?

We should just spam his mailbox with empty emails titled "Impeach Kotsay".

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 11:24 AM) I don't know about that. Ortiz has gone 2006 (.977 OPS) on everybody the last three months and change. Then you've got Beltre, who's arguably been the best 3B in baseball, sporting a .937 OPS and .401 wOBA (9th overall). Nobody saw those two having the years they've had. Combine that with a healthy Ellsbury, Pedroia, Cameron, Youk and Martinez, and I think they're better, at least this year. And I hate defending the Red Sox in any manner. But I gotta be real. I loved what the Red Sox did in the off-season, I really thought they'd be a wild card winner or at least in contention for the WC at this point.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 10:31 PM) That's crazy. I mean, sure, he can echo the viewpoint of the players, nobody wants to see him DFA'ed when the White Sox are playing so well...but the only way anything will happen is if the White Sox fall out of first place. We heard the same arguments in 2006 while the White Sox were hot in the first half with Anderson hitting in the 100's...that his defense more than made up for his lack of offense, that we had plenty of hitters and could carry one superior defender. Except now the argument is not based on his actual ability (at this point in his career), it's based on these mysterious words like "chemistry," "moxie," "grinder," "he's the best pure baseball player on the team," etc. Well, if he was actually the best baseball player on the team, he'd figure out how to take outside pitches the other way and not roll into 4-3 and 3U put-outs over and over again. Even Jim Thome could do that OCCASIONALLY. He has warning track power at this point in his career, but, if he hits the ball on the ground, Viciedo's a lot faster getting to first in a foot race. So we're left with he hits left-handed, can play first base pretty well, has a hot wife and he tries hard and everyone in the clubhouse is pulling for him. You would think we were running a "team building/motivation" workshop and not a major league baseball team. They've even got KW buying into the fact they shouldn't change anything. We'll see. BigSqwert also brought the point up about Jim Thome earlier today. If Jim was such a good clubhouse guy, why was he let go so easily this off-season? Why does Kotsay get the exception? I know there is a difference in letting a guy go in the off-season and in-season, but I'm sure some of the guys missed Thome too.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 09:09 PM) Yankees drop out of 1st and into the WC lead too. I'd much rather play the Rays in the playoffs.

QUOTE (AWhiteSoxinNJ @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 08:39 PM) No teams took on monster salaries. The baseball sources I have with the Phillies say it's across the league. The baseball sources you had also said we'd get Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 3, 2010 -> 10:19 PM) If you have no other options, it's one thing. It's the fact that Ozzie seems to do this when there are better options. That's what drives a lot of people crazy. The Ranger seems to think that Teahen and Viciedo are not good enough to take Kotsay off this team. I think I made this point clear in a post of mine back in a game thread a couple of days ago. Mark Teahen will produce 7 more runs than Mark Kotsay given the same number of PAs for the next 58 games. Dayan Viciedo will produce 11 more runs on offense (and this is based on a conservative guesstimate). Both of those guys can play 1B, maybe not as well as Kotsay, but they sure as hell hit a lot better.