Chicago White Sox

I don’t have a problem protecting guys like Clarkin & Basabe. However, not protecting Guerrero is pretty nuts to me when you look at some of the garbage on our 40 man roster. There’s at least four or five guys who could go and I wouldn’t bat an eye. If we end up non-tendering someone before the Rule 5 draft, can we then add someone like Guerrero or Polo and they will be protected? I guess I’m not certain how the rules work here.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 03:58 PM) Polo is by far the biggest surprise to me. Even if his bat isn't ready, he sounds like he would be able to play major league defense to me. The other two just aren't that surprising to me. Peter MIGHT be a utility guy if he can keep going. Guerrero has stalled at AA in an organization with a ton of pitching. Guerrero had terrific peripherals last year, so I’m not sure stalling is a fair description. Plus while we may have a lot of pitching, we ceraintly don’t have a surplus of left-handed pitching. I’m confident someone will draft him and stick him in their bullpen for a year. And it wouldn’t surprise me if he did well if used appropriately.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 03:22 PM) Clarkin, really? Nobody was going to pick that guy. Protecting Clarkin over Guerrero is absolutely crazy to me. Guerrero will almost certainly be picked, Clarkin was a huge long-shot IMO.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 10:00 AM) 2B: Moncada 3B: Yolmer Sanchez DH: Delmonico LF: Jimenez 1B: Gillaspie RF: Hulk C: Collins SS: Anderson CF: AJ Pollock Bench: L. Garcia Narvaez Peter Polo Rotation: Kopech Giolito Lopez Fulmer Rule 5 draft pick Hansen (midseason callup) Bullpen: Rodon Kimbrel Vieira Danish Minaya Miller I figured I left myself the money available once I moved Garcia and Abreu so I dumped it into the bullpen, where we will need people the most. Also probably missing someone from the bullpen - we might not even see Vieira or Danish there, we could totally find someone else in a trade or FA acquisition this year who occupies the role for a year, but that's beyond my ability to guess. Who is Hulk?

Pretty sure Maitan is going to take the highest bid (or near highest) which won’t be us. I’m pretty confident that we have at least $300k remaining if we want to throw a Hail Mary type offer though.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 07:45 PM) What about Clarkin? I don’t see any reason to protect him, but I’m clearly in the minority on that one.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 05:42 PM) Not a conspiracy but more of a win win situation. Fans accept it and teams still make money . Not all teams will pull it off successfully . That's when it gets ugly . The ones bowing down to Hahn's genius will be calling for his head. How many MLB owners do you really think are in it for the money? Loria perhaps, not sure I could name another. Most of these guys want to win above all else (as long as they don’t lose money). This idea that rebuilding is somehow super profitable is odd to me. Along with a decrease in payroll comes a huge decrease in attendance and ultimately revenue. If the rebuild goes south, the financial impacts can be significant in the long-run. I can promise you the last thing Jerry wants to do is endure a rebuild, but given where our organization was at we really didn’t have a choice.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 03:32 PM) You ever think teams may be embracing the tank because a.) you get the payroll down to pennies and the owners love that! followed by b.) since some teams have had success with it, you are putting dozens of millions in the owners wallet while doing something that's popular with the fans. I mean you can lose up to 5 years during the tank and everybody's happy. It's the perfect nonsequitir for an owner who likes cold hard ca$h. No, teams do it because it’s an effective way to build a winner. Not everything is a conspiracy.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 01:55 PM) White Sox have a ton of roster moves to make in the next 24 hours. Scott Merkin suggested that the club could add as many as 6 guys to the 40 man roster. In order to do so and leave a spot available for the Rule 5, they would need to remove 3 players from the 40-man. I think they cut Petricka, Putnam, & Alburquerque and add Jimenez, Peter, Gillespie, Guerrero, Clark, & Adolfo.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 09:50 AM) Trout gets $34 MIL est and he is better than machado just for his value in CF. But in 2 years you have to think Salaries will see the continual ( and crazy) escalation. So I think Machado in 2 years will get a 10 year $375-425 deal w the opt=out that seems to be growing in popularity. $30M may be a little light, but I can’t see Machado getting anywhere near $40M in AAV. What teams will actually be in need of a 3B come 2019? Below is a list of all the teams I think could afford to have $30M AAV type player on their books and what their 3B situations currently look like. LAD - Turner (2020) NYY - Key prospects in Torres & Andujar BOS - Devers DET - Candelario (plus rebuilding) TOR - Key prospect in Vlad Guerrero Jr TEX - Gallo SFG - Arroyo CHC - Bryant WAS - Rendon (2019) LAA - Valbuena (option) NYM - Wright (2020) STL - Gyorko (2020) SEA - Seager HOU - Bregman PHI - Franco (for now) IMO, most teams look pretty much set at 3B. The Yankees are without question the biggest spender who might have a hole at 3B, but they also have a top 5 prospect in Torres plus another interesting option in Andujar. After them, I’d say the biggest threats for him are the Phillies & the Angels, and LAA already has $104M committed to five players in 2019. Also, this list doesn’t include the potential impact Moustakas & Donaldson may have on the 3B market as well. Honestly, I really think the market is being set up for a battle between us & the Phillies for Machado and I ultimately think we’d be the preferred destination if the money is equal.

Seems like Machado is going to be most posters’ #1 priority. And honestly, a potential 2-5 of Moncada, Machado, Abreu, & Jimenez could be downright insanity. Those four guys could realistically combine for 120 HRs and as a group average a .900 OPS. That heart of the lineup would have a legit chance of being the best in baseball. I truly believe if we can land Machado that our offense would most definitely be playoff worthy by 2019 and would only get better in the following years as key prospects like Collins, Robert, Burger, Sheets, Rutherford, Adolfo arrive and fill in the gaps.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Nov 18, 2017 -> 03:03 PM) Nate Jones? Uh... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/nate...er-surgery.html

QUOTE (Scoots @ Nov 18, 2017 -> 02:38 PM) Yeah, I personally think that Machado is going to the Yankees. They need a third baseman. Wasn't Frazier the one who filled that roll last year after the trade? Or did he play a different position for them? The Yankees have both Andujar & Torres for 3B. That doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t go for Machado, but they may prefer to spend their money elsewhere.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Nov 18, 2017 -> 02:06 PM) Great job/analysis. I will tell you though, this is 2017 and by 2019 Machado I think he will be in the $400 Mil group. The $300 group of David Price types is not his group. He will be w Stanton, Trout, Kershaw etc especially because of age. I wonder if Orioles will pass on him and trade him for a semi-bundle next summer if they are out of it. Do you think Machado gets more years or a higher AAV or some combo of both? I believe Miguel Cabrera was the highest paid positional guy this last season and he only made $28M. Obviously salaries are going up, but I really can’t see him getting much more than a $30M AAV if he goes for a 10 year deal with an opt-out clause. Harper for sure will get more but I think he will also have more of the traditional big spenders involved.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 18, 2017 -> 12:58 PM) Very nice! My initial thought when reading your free agent signings was, "no way we're spending over 400 million bucks in a single off season." Then I remembered how few financial commitments we have in the coming years and immediately did a 180. The 2019 offseason could be wildly entertaining for us Sox fans. Yup, we almost have no long term commitments. Right now for 2019 I believe it’s only Anderson & Jones for a total less than $2M. Obviously there are a couple of arbitration guys we’ll likely want to hold onto, but we should have a ton of money to spend. It’s going to be a fun offseason.

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Nov 18, 2017 -> 12:50 PM) Man is that rotation something nasty Love the Machado and Miller signings, but would absolutely pass on Murphy (I have Abreu at 1B and DH being split between Avi/Delmonico). Flowers is an interesting vet that could split time with Collins, whom I think will get called up this September A bench of C Narvaez/Flowers, 1B/3B Davidson, IF Sanchez, UT Cordell, and OF Palka/Engel/Polo/Tilson/May is what I envision Can't wait, this doesn't even include Robert, Burger, Sheets, or any other '17, or'18 picks either The 2018/19 offseason will be interesting for us because most of the pitching staff will be in place, but several of our key positional prospects will be a year or two or out. I agree that if all goes right Collins may receive a September callup. However, I think we’d be wise to wait until May of 2019 to ensure that extra year of player control. I think adding a veteran like Flowers on a short-term deal makes a ton of sense for us. Nothing wrong with easing in Collins into the full-time role and pairing him with a great mentor to learn from. I figured the Murphy signing would be a little controversial, but I think we’ll need to add a temporary bat at either 1B or DH. Long-term I’m hoping either Burger or Sheets can fill that role, but I don’t see those guys as viable options until 2020 at the earliest. Murphy buys us some time and hopefully can be signed to a shorter-term deal assuming his defense at 2B continues to degrade. I also like the fact that Murphy brings a pro-hit tool to the lineup. And yes, this doesn’t include Robert (who I think might be able to take over the CF job by late 2019), Rutherford, Adolfo, Dunning, Cease, next year’s #4 overall pick, and anything we might get for Avi. There should be plenty of reinforcements arriving throughout 2019, 2020, & 2021.

QUOTE (Soha @ Nov 18, 2017 -> 08:40 AM) These full rebuilds are becoming the in thing to do lately, especially with the Cubs and Astros winning the last 2 World Series. More and more teams are going that route. I absolutely think there will be a team that plucks him away if the Sox leave him unprotected. Maybe even the Tigers. We’re already seeing it. Teams are embracing the tank. Can’t just look at the way things have been done in the past, but have to be forward thinking. I fully expect what the Padres did last season to become more and more common. Maybe not quite to that extent (i.e. three players), but moreso around taking high ceiling, but super undeveloped positional prospects.

I thought this was a relevant comment on Adolfo. Comes from a Fangraphs article on under-the-radar prospects. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/general-man...elow-the-radar/

Free Agents: Manny Machado - 10/$300M (w/ opt-out) Daniel Murphy - 2/$32M Tyler Flowers - 2/$24M Andrew Miller - 4/$64M Trades: Avi Garcia to OAK for SS/OF Jorge Mateo & RHP Daulton Jefferies Roster: 1. L. Garcia, CF ($4M) 2. Moncada, 2B ($0.6M) 3. Machado, 3B ($30M) 4. Abreu, DH ($20M) 5. Jimenez, RF ($0.6M) 6. Murphy, 1B ($16M) 7. Anderson, SS ($1.0M) 8. Delmonico, LF ($0.6M) 9. Flowers, C ($12M) Sub-total = $84.6M IF: Sanchez ($4M) OF: Polo ($0.6M) UT: Cordell ($0.6M BC: Narvaez* ($0.6M) Sub-total = $5.8M #1: Kopech ($0.6M) #2: Rodon ($7M) #3: Giolito ($0.6M) #4: Lopez ($0.6M) #5: Hansen ($0.6M) Sub-total = $9.4M CL: Burdi ($0.6M) SU: Jones ($0.6M) SU: Miller ($16M) MR: Vieira ($0.6M) MR: Fulmer ($0.6M) MR: Guerrero ($0.6M) LR: Stephens ($0.6M) Sub-total = $19.6M Grand-total = $119.4M *Note: Collins would replace Narvaez by the end of June

Alright, I’m bored as hell and want to talk some Sox baseball. Given this offseason should be relatively quiet, I thought we could look ahead to 2019, which could be our first competive season with the right set of moves. So the rules here are simple. Predict the 2019 opending day roster assuming a $120M payroll. Free agents & trades are obviously fair game, but make sure to include the details of those moves. Also, feel free to note if there are any major prospects you expect up early in the season (i.e. only being kept down to ensure an extra year of control). Below is a list of potential 2018/19 free agents for your reference: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018...ree-agents.html

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 16, 2017 -> 08:29 PM) They would care because he will take up a roster spot an entire year, and playing a man down is fine for a game or 3 but not 162. And after a year of sitting, you send him back to AA and he is behind from where he was when you drafted him. There has to be someone else available more interesting for them . They’re entering the first year of their rebuild, I can’t imagine playing a man down really matters that much. The Padres just last season took two positional guys that were also 21 and with similar amounts of experience. They played two men down all year. Teams are constantly looking for ways to get an edge and stashing talented, but undeveloped positional prospects on their bench may become more prevalent in coming years, especially with the amount of clubs rebuilding. I mean for f***’s sake, we took an A ball catcher and carried him all year and we weren’t even rebuilding. And let’s not forgot Aldolfo was widely considered as being part of the big three prospects in his signing class along with Gleybor Torres and our very own Eloy Jimenez. Those guys are both top 5 to 10 prospects in all of baseball. Adolfo clearly has a ton of talent and I’m not certain there will be a lot of positional guys available that are more interesting than him. I can guarantee you that there are GMs with quality development staffs out there right now who would love to add a kid with his kind of upside to their system. Again, I think it’s unlikely he gets taken in the Rule 5, but I think it’s definitely a possibility.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 16, 2017 -> 08:01 PM) There is reality. Sitting him a year kills a year of development he can't get back. I really doubt anyone would select him. Why would they care though? They have nothing to lose by selecting him and carrying him on their bench for a year. Worst case scenario they simply prevent him from ever developing into something with a division rival. Best case scenario he reaches his relatively high ceiling with them. I don’t think it’s likely they take him, but I could see a rebuilding team take a shot on him. He’s more than young enough to overcome a lost year of development.

I could easily see the Tigers grabbing Adolfo. Let him sit on the bench for the year and then let him start 2018 as a 22 year old in high A. He’d basically be age appropriate, although I’m assuming he’d only have two options remaining at that point. Regardless, there is absolutely no risk for a rebuilding club to do something like this and I don’t believe the Tigers are exactly flush with talent.

Didn’t someone suggest that the kids that have already played in the US would have to be made unrestricted free agents? I’m not sure if there is actually something to do that, but does anyone recall if those Red Sox prospects fell into that bucket or not?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 16, 2017 -> 07:26 AM) I mean yeah it's probably not a perfect without some pieces moving but they could make it work. Especially since Gattis is pretty much a platoon player at this point. I think if Lucroy wants to rebuild value, he will take a 1-year deal in Colorado. I also forgot they have 4 guys in the OF that should play every day. Man they have so much depth. My point is I just don’t see it being optimal for Lucroy. Didn’t he pass up on a chance to play for the Indians in 2016 because they wouldn’t void his option and allow him to become a free agent a year early? He really doesn’t seem like the type of guy to potentially sacrifice his future earning potential for a better chance at winning a championship in the short-run.