Chicago White Sox

Soxtalk - For the record, Role Tide has it made it very clear to me over at the Hangout that he hates advanced metrics (FIP specifically), he hates everything about Fangraphs (f*** those nerds), doesn’t believe that defense or ballpark factors matter (just a bunch of excuses), and that ERA is the end all be all when evaluating pitchers because at some point “only results matter”. He will never appreciate the value of Cease because he is a dinosaur that’s determined to be willfully ignorant and avoid potential data points when forming his opinions. I know people have been beating up on @Sports Guy and to a lesser extent @Frobby, but both have acknowledged that Cease would not come cheap and they have both expressed a willingness to trade a 55 FV prospect (Kjerstad or Cowser) plus a 50 FV prospect (Ortiz) for Cease. We may not feel it’s enough or like the specific players, but it’s not a ridiculous proposal. It’s actually only Role Tide who feels their top 5 prospects should be off limits and that an Ortiz & garbage package should be enough to get Cease.

So you don’t care what Tony at OH has to say about your prospects? Seems like I have seen you reference his write-ups quite a bit.

I’d agree, but also the most realistic I think. Who would you prefer in a Mets deal out of curiosity?

In this market, you likely have to pay up for the bulk of the projection since there aren’t a lot of other options with that kind of ceiling. Yamamoto has never pitched in the majors and just got the largest contract ever for a pitcher simply because he could be a legit ace. Cease has at least done it once before and has a super high floor. If you are the Yankees, it’s either make massive commitments to Snell or Montgomery or overpay in prospects for Cease or another controllable starter that doesn’t appear to be readily available.

When the new lists are published (like we saw in BA’s), you will see Schultz straddling a 55/60 FV ranking and Ortiz will remain at a 50 FV. There is nothing biased about this at all, but rather you guys are referencing outdated rankings. The talent levels of these prospects have drifted apart and one has a ton of helium whereas the other one has likely reached their prospect status apex. Would every single GM take Schultz over Ortiz…maybe that’s a slight stretch to say since one is a pitcher, but I think the vast majority of GMs certainly would. Schultz is a premium prospect whereas Ortiz is simply a very good one.

This has nothing to do with “ego”. I’m sure James could give two shits that you laughed at his post. It’s more that it’s absolutely clownish you called a guy who runs a website & podcast centered around minor league baseball and the draft “biased” because he doesn’t agree with your simplistic take anchored to one set of outdated prospect rankings. And your obsession to published rankings that you still can’t explain how the underlying logic works is wild to me. Don’t get me wrong, they are a great reference point to understand directional value but without any context it’s straight dumb to say one 50 FV prospect is better than another 50 FV prospect. Everyone has different risk-reward tolerances, so yeah some people would value the still developing 21 year old catcher with room for growth over the soon to be 26 year old physically maxed out SS prospect.

Updated packages I would be willing to accept: NYY: Domínguez (OF), Hampton (RHP), Lombard (SS) NYM: Williams (SS), Clifford (OF), Tidwell (RHP) BAL: Mayo (3B/OF), Kjerstad (OF), McDermott (RHP)

Because it’s from early August…do I need you to provide the article that Jonathan Mayo wrote up when the list was published?

You’re an absolute clown.

Last updated in early August I believe

Schultz is literally ranked 61…but please keep the digs coming!

I have thought of this, but I think his profile is more likely hold a bit longer than one based on defense / range / speed.

@Rolle Tide - You just “laughed” at the managing editor of our Future Sox prospect website, who is basically the equivalent of Tony over at the Hangout. To mock a post where he’s simply sharing his opinion is absolutely obnoxious.

But I’m asking you how the ranking system values those various things. You keep saying he’d be our #2 prospect because of a MLB Pipeline ranking (an outdated one no less) but can’t explain the various factors that go into it.

He was 5th overall in Stuff+ amongst qualified starters last year and 13th out of 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings. His fastball still ranked as the 8th best in Stuff+ despite the “massive” velocity drop. It was really just the decline in his slider that hurt him. And what’s fascinating is the spin rate on his slider (including the active rate) were very consistent year over year. It’s simply the shape of it that changed, which could be explained by mechanical issues impacting his release point. But the key here is this isn’t a Lucas Giolito situation where access to the sticky stuff goes away and the spin rates plummet…this 100% feels mechanical to me. Regardless, the slider was still very effective last year (hence the league leading swords) despite a less impactful shape to it. I think modern front offices are salivating to get their hands on him and get back to legit TOR form.

Who was more exciting than Carlos Lee’s brother Carlos Lee.

Isn’t Haber still with the front office though?

I don’t have instagram…can you summarize?

Let’s just say we’re hoping to be competitive by 2026. He’d be 27/28 in the first year of our window. As a glove first SS, I’d be concerned that his defense would begin slowing down pretty soon thereafter. Maybe I’m overthinking it a bit, but it definitely would be a concern for me. However, as the second piece with the right centerpiece and a quality third piece I’d probably be good with him. Just have soured on him some as I thought through the bigger picture more.

I think some might, but I think the greater injury risk with pitchers would cause most to go with the similarly talented positional guys.

I think Ortiz is a fairly nice prospect and for a while I really thought a Kjerstad + Ortiz + 3rd piece (~45 FV guy) was a win-win trade for both sides. But upon further reflection, the age issue does bother me quite a bit and I don’t see him having a big ceiling. I think there is a chance, even a good one, that he could become a 2 win SS for like a four year stretch. But that doesn’t just move the needle for us given where we’re currently at and I’d rather have someone like Beavers who could see his status really elevate with a strong 2024 season.

Prospect lists are incredibly volatile and looking at one from even a few months ago is already vastly outdated. For example, Noah Schultz jumped all the way up to 31st on BA’s mid-season list. I’d wager he’ll be a 55 FV prospect or higher when Fangraphs updates their White Sox list. While he’s still far off and a lot could go wrong, we’re talking about truly premium stuff & ace like potential. Even a GM in need of a major league ready SS would take Schultz over Ortiz because they’d be able to flip him for something better one way or the other.

This is just silly. What makes a better prospect? Is a high variance, high ceiling guy more valuable than a low ceiling, high floor guy? Is an older prospect who requires less development time in the majors but who might start regressing during a team’s control period more or less valuable than a younger, more raw prospect that might take a full year or two before being productive? How much value does MLB Pipeline place on a prospect’s proximity to the majors? How do they account for the inherent injury risk of pitchers vs. position players? If you are going to use these rankings as black & white, it would at least be good to understand these unwritten rules on how we’re supposed to value prospects.

I’ve told you guys I’d rank Ortiz much closer to the back end of the top 100 because of his age and lack of ceiling. Many of your brethren were very angry with me for suggesting that, but I simply don’t think he holds the value that other prospects in the 50’s do, at least not to a team like us that need potential difference makers.

I’ve told them on their site that they either need to give Ortiz the starting 2B job or trade him for something else that can help (not necessarily Cease), because a 26 year old without any major league success quickly erodes value.