Chicago White Sox

And not any 100 loss team…one whose clubhouse was a complete disaster thanks its spineless manager.

And so is using the “guy who threw the highest rated pitch in Statcast history one year later has suddenly lost the ability to throw that pitch forever despite little change in spin rate” to help support your thesis that he is badly broken.

I mean, I’m not sure it’s fair to assume that Cease would have pitched exactly the same behind their defense and with their pitching coach.

Yes, I assume he will bounce back some, but have never said he will return to 2022 form. However, that’s being factored into the prices we have discussed over the past month. If this was 2022 Cease we were selling, the headliner discussions wouldn’t be centered on Coswer & Kjerstad but would start with Basallo or Mayo at minimum.

2 1/3 years of Juan Soto at $58M in cost vs. 4 years of Robert at $67.5M in cost. Assume the Padres thought they were getting a 6 win player. At $9M per win, we’re talking about $68M in surplus value. Robert at say a 4.5 win projection is worth ~$95M in surplus value. That’s a massive difference in value. And in terms of the return, the Nationals got per BA the 11th overall prospect, the 25th overall prospect, the 62nd overall prospect, and a former top overall pitching prospect (10th on BA’s 2021 list). Gore may have lost some value at this point, but we’re still talking four legit top 100 talents including two top 25 guys. For simplicity purposes, I’m allocating Susana to the Bell part of the trade. My hypothetical proposal is more than what the Nationals got, but the main difference in value would be Holliday over Abrams. Otherwise, most of the pieces more or less stack up with Gore arguably more valuable than the 4th piece I’m proposing.

Roll Tide doesn’t?

You continue to assume every one of your prospects is going to pan out. Even 70 FV & 65 FV prospects bust and many of them underperform. Assuming a kid will be a 6 WAR player is absolutely wild. Don’t get me wrong, Holliday is stud prospect but the key word there is prospect. There are no guarantees. And sure, Robert hasn’t been a beacon of health, but we just saw a small built Japanese pitcher with quite a bit of mileage on his arm and who hasn’t thrown a single pitch in the majors sign the largest pitcher contract in baseball history. Luis Robert is an absolutely insane athlete coming off a 5 win season in the most broken org in baseball and with little protection. Given he’s due $67.5M at max over the next four years (with two options to boot), he is a top five asset in all of baseball and there really isn’t an argument here like with Cease. You may feel he has durability concerns, but I can assure you most GMs would give up their first born to get their hands on him despite his past track record of health.

I doubt any team outside of you guys could. Realistically, I’d need Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, & Beavers / Bradfield as the starting point with a couple of lower-tier prospects also thrown into the mix. I know you’ll say that’s way too much, but that’s legit what Robert is worth.

Someone will pony up eventually IMO

I think it’s possible, but it would almost have to come down to Bannister being a big fan D.L. Hall and the Orioles being willing to give him up. I don’t think Getz comes out of a Cease trade without an immediate replacement.

No one is actually suggesting he is the centerpiece amongst Sox fans. I have gotten in a lot of debates over at Orioles Hangout because some of their fans (not the majority though) feel he could be the centerpiece. Personally, I think Orioles fans greatly overrate Ortiz’s value while many Sox fans undervalue it. I personally view Ortiz as a low-end top 100 type prospect who I think has a shot of being a steady 2.0 to 2.5 win player with a league average bat but who could also not hit enough where you’re almost immediately looking for an upgrade. I also worry about his age and that goes into my discounted value for him.

I can’t believe the name here hasn’t leaked out yet.

Oh I’m 100% with you. I’m not doing a Cease trade with Baltimore unless I’m getting one of Kjerstad or Cowser (or theoretically Mayo, but far more unlikely) as the centerpiece plus one of their infield prospects (preferably not Norby) as plus a solid third piece. I do think Ortiz could be that second piece, but I view him more of a high floor guy than someone with anything close to a 5 fWAR ceiling.

FWIW, BA put a 70 grade on Ortiz’s fielding in their latest update vs. having him at a 60 grade previously. While I’ll always be skeptical of someone making that type of defensive jump at his age, it’s really the bat that I’m concerned bout. I’ve heard about these rumored elite EVs, but they conflict with every single scouting report I read on him. And without access to Statcast type data at the minor league level, I highly question the validity of said statements.

I would say that anything Macsandz says should be taken with a massive grain of salt. I can’t recall one single rumor he has gotten right but many he has gotten wrong.

Wouldn’t surprise me…but the price should be dirt cheap given the D-Backs non-tendered him vs. paying him $1.5M. I’m not enamored by the other OF options in that price range though.

Most likely yes

Not Steve Cishek is suggesting Scott Alexander

Yup, checks multiple boxes!

But the Price is Right!

I’ll say Amir Garrett

I don’t envision this being a rebuild like we saw previously. If/when they move Cease, it will be for near major league ready prospects. I think they want to be competing for a s%*# AL Central by 2026. Unfortunately, there is not much we can do next year since the bulk of top prospects aren’t quite ready and will need some time to develop once they are finally called up.

Agree…not a ton of guys like that is the problem though. However, if we are going to dumpster dive, I would target guys with additional control. Kyle Lewis is controllable through 2026 and makes complete as part of a RF solution (not sure how his defense is nowadays, but has to better than Sheets). Code Heuer is controllable through 2025 and his pitch mix still makes a ton of sense in our park. I’m sure there are others like that who will come dirt cheap and can offer theoretical value beyond 2024 if they somehow pan out.

Tough to argue against that then.

But as White Sox fans should know, caught stealing percentages are heavily dependent on the pitchers as well. Given his pop time was still in the 70th percentile, it’s not outlandish to think he handled a bunch of pitchers who weren’t good at holding runners and/or have slower than average windups.