Chicago White Sox

How happy would people be if our big two offseason moves were Conforto and Verlander? That means dumpster diving at 2B, but it might be financially doable without having to find a taker for Keuchel.

Not sure you need a bullpen with lineup and rotation (assuming Cease is there). That being said, I’d take the $6M you were going to give to Leury and sign a reliever or two.

I think you’re missing the context there

Tray has a very disturbing hatred for Vaughn and will use anything in his disposal to rip him accordingly. He much prefers his favorite young Cuban in Eloy Jimenez.

All I want us to do is add impact talent. While I prefer Conforto, I’d lose my shit in a good way if we add Semien.

My argument? I’ve made multiple posts highlighting my position. And I think a ~3.5 win projection for Conforto is fair, but I do think that would be challenging for Vaughn to meet next year as our RF. For example, Jorge Soler had to put a 136 wRC+ to overcome his shit defense and put a 3.6 win season. Maybe Vaughn won’t be quite that bad defensively, but realistically he’s got to be around 125 wRC+ or so to reach that level of production. That seems like a reach for next year and I would expect to closer to 2 wins as our RF.

What is your expectations for Conferto next year exactly?

Who is giving it as much weight? Combining his 2020 and 2021 seasons prior to the trade deadline puts his wRC+ at 105. That’s his last 700 plate appearances. Why do the 2020 at-bats not count at all? That’s over a season worth of at-bats and it’s basically as good as he put up in any year outside of 2017. It also happens to be his most recent years worth of at-bats, so I’m really struggling to understand why they aren’t relevant when saying a player is declining. Look, I’m not trying to make this personal. I enjoy your posts and your general point of view of things, but I fully disagree with your take here. I just don’t see how anyone could say he was in massive decline and a fall-off was imminent.

What numbers? The ones that come with a time machine? And for some reason the the 700 plate appearances prior to the trade don’t count because…reasons. ?

You are proof of how people can manipulate statistics and leverage hindsight to rationale any argument. Hernandez had five straight seasons with a wRC+ of 100 or higher vs. RHP. Yet you are saying the Sox should overreact to his 2021 splits with the Indians (which is the definition of a SSS) and assume he can no longer hit RHP? That’s actually your position? What I do love is that this move was somehow so egregious and yet you didn’t feel the need to complain at all when it first went down? Just like this “the Sox were incapable of beating the Astros”, you really seem to love ripping everything in hindsight. No one is arguing that Cesar was good with us (because he sucked), but no was predicting a massive fall-off in the coming months when he was sporting a 101 wRC+ at the time of trade. And I’m aware of the flukey HRs as I called them out at the time. The reality is the Hernandez deal was a low ceiling trade that didn’t work out. If you want to rip Hahn for something, how about ripping him for the garbage farm system that forced him to trade from the major league roster to add Kimbrel and limited his ability to acquire other impact players at the deadline. Cesar underperforming massively post acquisition wasn’t one of them.

How am cutting up segments? You ignored two years that broke your downward trend (plus didn’t consider defense), whereas I compared his previous 12 months prior to the acquisition to the three years preceding it to prove there wasn’t obvious age decline. Ultimately none of this matters, I just don’t like when people rip Hahn for things that aren’t true when there is more than enough actual shit to that he should be ripped for.

What am I justifying? I wanted Eduardo Escobar at the deadline. I’m just disagreeing with your notion that he was in obvious decline because I don’t think it’s true. And using a ~700 plate appearance period is not a SSS.

No doubt it’s a small sample size, but he also looked the part in June. The talent is clearly there and I think it’s only a matter of time before it formulates into consistent production against RHP. That being said, I tend to agree on Lux. I think the Dodgers would probably still value him higher than Vaughn. But if they’ve soured on him enough and have other plans for 2B, then I’d be all over that trade. I know many here feel differently however and that’s totally fine as Andrew should be a special hitter with time.

The dude didn’t have a 90 wRC+ when we got him, so a bit odd you’re using that as proof of obvious age based decline. However, from 2020 to 2021 in 691 PAs with the Indians, the dude had a 105 wRC+. Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100. Combine that with defense that showed no signs of deterioration over the past couple years and I’m struggling to see this obvious age based decline. I am seeing some year to year volatility which is normal for most players.

Vaughn put up a 142 wRC in June against RHP in 80 plate appearances with strong line drive and hard contact rates. He then proceeded to get injured, wear out, and have some bad BABIP luck. I fully expect him to be productive against RHP next year, but I also think most GMs would feel that way as well and as such he’d return the most value out of all our 1B/LF/DH types. I really don’t want to move him and it’s not about opening up a spot for Sheets, but if we can get someone like Lux before he blows up I think we’d be crazy not to explore it.

What suggested he was in decline before the trade? The career high 18 bombs he hit with the Indians? I’d love to hear what these indicators were since you seem to think Hahn acquiring a consistent 2.0 to 2.5 2B was somehow idiotic for obvious reasons.

Because Conforto is elite against RHP. That hitting ability and average defense ranked him as the 9th most valuable OF from 2017 to 2020. I’m really not sure what your beef is with Conforto or why you’re assuming he gets $100M. Care to elaborate? As for Engel, he has never once shown he can withstand the rigors of a full season, so he should not be in consideration for an everyday role. And for the record, I’d love to have Semien, but I don’t think paying him SS money to play 2B is the best uses of our limited resources and I think Conforto better balances the offense for much less. Either way, I’d be ecstatic with us adding another impact player regardless of position.

People want Conforto because he’s elite against RHP and would provide much needed balance to the lineup. These people also recognize his average defense would be a massive upgrade over Vaughn and Sheets in RF. No one is arguing he’s some defensive wizard.

It’s not just a few missed fly balls. It’s a lack of range that allows for more hits falling while also allowing base runners to grab extra bases more frequently. No one is saying that will make these guys negative value players, but it’s optimization and will cap the value these guys can provide.

Cespedes did nothing to warrant any long-term planning around and Colas isn’t even part of the organization yet. They should not even enter the equation at this point.

No, that is not the question. Both guys will create more runs than they will cost us, but the question is whether there is a LF/RF pairing that will provide more overall value. If half of Vaughn’s hitting value is eliminated by shitty RF defense, he’s goes from being a special player to a somewhat ordinary guy. And yes, if I can have two Hall of Fame hitters in the corners then I’ll sacrifice some defense, but that’s not a practical example and you’d still be better off just moving one of them to DH. As for Conforto, what are you basing this on? In RF he’s been graded as average or slightly better by UZR, DRS, & OAA prior to the 2021 season in which he was injured. If you’re looking at Fangraphs than his dWAR is impacted by his CF and defense and a positional adjustment when in the corners. Regardless, scouting reports have him as an average defensive outfielder and that’s significantly better than what we’ll get from Vaughn or Sheets.

A run saved is equal to a run created, so defense always matter. If you throw a guy out of position and he sucks defensively, then it will negate a chunk of the offensive value he provides. And this stuff isn’t linear. An outfield can typically hide one bad defensive player, but surround Robert with weakness on both sides and suddenly you have a legit problem.

Generally speaking, you don’t think guys typically make more on a one year basis than a long-term deal? And especially when talking about an aging catcher?

They aren’t predictive, but rather simply point out just how bad they were in a very small sample. What is predictive is the fact that neither has the speed or athleticism to ever be an average RF. Sheets is a lumbering 6’5”, 230 pounds and Vaughn is straight up too slow. I think Andrew could possibly work in LF because he seems to get all the balls hit to him, but range will always be a problem and I don’t need advanced metrics to tell me otherwise.