Chicago White Sox

Whoops, it’s technically meant to be a 6/$138M deal, which would be a $23M AAV. Just typed in the wrong footnote, although I’m guessing that doesn’t change your view on the deal. Can I ask why you don’t like a guy coming off a 4.8 win season and also looked really damn good in 2020 (partial season mind you)?

What’s your beef with Gausman and what you do instead to address the rotation?

FWIW (which may not be much), MLBTradeRumors has Verlander getting 2/$40M.

We have an option on Lynn for 2024.

We have two more years of control of Giolito and three more years of Lynn. We’re going to need Kopech to assume one of the top two spots in the rotation for the 2024 & 2025 seasons.

It’s revisionist to say Kimbrel was going to flop at the Heuer could have exceeded his production at 1/15 the cost.

I saw it and liked it. Definitely a slower, dialogue heavy film that won’t be loved by everyone.

I like pretty much all these moves, but the only concern I’d have is the rotation. Is Archer the #5 starter? I just worry we’re an injury away to a starter from serious problems, even with Quintana on a minor league deal.

If you want to question what the better addition would have been between Kimbrel and Bryant that’s fine, but don’t say Heuer was going to put up better numbers than the guy who was the best reliever in baseball at the time. These revisionist opinions are maddening.

I don’t buy this “only really good” narrative at all. From 2017 to 2020, Conforto put up the 9th most fWAR amongst outfielders with 13.3 wins. He had a 133 wRC+ over this time. That’s 1.1 wins and 5 points of wRC+ less than Bryce Harper. Most importantly, during this same four year stretch he put up the 10th highest wRC+ against RHP at 143. Quite frankly, dude is elite against RHP and that’s what we need, especially come October when we’ll be facing dominant ones. This dude is not Melky fucking Cabrera.

Obviously I can’t say with certainty that the Dodgers would take Vaughn, but I also think he fits very well on their roster as a LF/1B hybrid (and his value would increase to them with a universal DH). That being said, I actually think it’s a trade both sides might be interested in though, especially if the Dodgers are concerned about Lux’s versatility / ability to cover SS. I honestly don’t buy the concept that Reinsdorf is unwilling to commit dollars beyond the 2023 or 2024 for a starting pitcher. Hahn specifically mentioned in his ESPN 100 interview that a TOR of the rotation starter is something they’d be looking at. Going into next year with Kopech & Keuchel as your #4 & #5 is simply not good enough IMO. They need to add a starter and an impactful one at that. If the years are a concern, then pivot to someone like Verlander. As for the ability to “sustain” the window after 2024, that will come down to what in-house options we can develop over the coming years. We should get some salary relief once Abreu, Grandal, Lynn, & Hendriks come off the books, but it will important for several of the Montgomery, Kath, Rodriguez, Ramos, Cespedes, & Colas group on the positional side and several of the Vera, Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist, McDougal, & Burke group to develop into legitimate contributors. If that next wave of talent fails, then sustained success will be nearly impossible. But right now I’m focused on optimizing my chances to win a World Series in the next three years and I think these moves do that.

These are my own estimates and many of them will more optimistic than what Steamer’s projecting. And generally speaking, I find Steamer to be way too conservative on young players, especially with all the noise over the past couple years. For example, I fully expect Robert to blow his number out of the water (4.7) as he basically put up 3.2 in a half of a season and he’s still not a fully developed product. Eloy is only projected for 2.4 wins by Steamer, but I think he performs closer to his 2020 rate stats and ends up at around 4. There is a method to the madness although candidly speaking I don’t actually think that roster would win 110 games. There is clearly some likely injury impacts and other things that I’m not accounting for, which makes the fWAR total highly optimistic.

There is plenty to rip Hahn for, but I just hate the notion he’s some bumbling idiot without a plan. He’s done enough right to get us this far, the only question now is can he make the appropriate finishing moves to push over the top.

For our free agent signings? 100% no. Maybe when you’re talking about the Machado’s and Harper’s of the world, but even then we pursued the far less marketable guy.

If you think anyone in the fucking world outside yourself and hankchifan would buy more tickets because the Sox signed Jorge Soler then you’ve lost all touch with reality. And if we ever sign someone because of the “former Cubs angle” Hahn should be fired on the spot.

Hahn literally acquired a Cy Young finalist for Dane Dunning last offseason after trying at the previous deadline and then was able to extend him at a reasonable cost. He also went out and get Liam Hendriks who was their top free agent target, not to mention Grandal the offseason before and what should have been Wheeler if not for his wife. Not all of his moves have worked, but I think it’s a bit disingenuous to say he hasn’t had a plan.

I’m including minor league starts as well for all three guys. Rodriguez has consistently been healthy and trying to use a COVID related illness to say otherwise is absurd. As for Thor, he missed the 2017 season with a torn lat. The only other major period of missed time was due to TJS. His health issues are not nearly as concerning as Rodon’s long-term and he’s been the far more effective pitcher over the course of his career. If you suddenly want to base all your go-forward projections for Carlos based on his 2021 season, but I’m going to look at the guy with historical command issues and wonder if he can maintain a 2.44 BB/9 and 0.88 HR/9. If he his shoulder issues persist and his command slips a little, he will quickly become a much different pitcher. I just think it’s a little naive to assume he will automatically come close to replicating his 2021 numbers next year.

Alright, I will go first here. My plan is pretty straight-forward with three primary objectives: Replace Carlos Rodon with the best long-term starting pitching free agent we can afford Add much needed balance to the lineup while enhancing the defense where possible Improve the right side of our bullpen while also ensuring we have some starting depth As you'll see below, free agency would center around two free agents. First, I'd sign Kevin Gausman to replace Rodon. Total contract here is 5/$138M, which feels low to me but is the figure MLBTradeRumors is predicting. Second, I'd sign Michael Conforto to a 4/$64M deal to solve RF and add much needed left-handed power to the middle of our lineup. Almost all of our funds would go to these two moves, but I feel like they address our two biggest needs right off the bat. After that, we need to address 2B. This may not be popular, but we have too much redundancy at 1B/DH/LF and I'm going to trade Andrew Vaughn to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux. I know he's been a disappointment so far, but he's a former 70 grade prospect with excellent tools and grades very well at 2B. This gives us another left-handed bat, improves our athleticism, and enhances the defense. Finally on the positional side, I'm going to trade Micker Adolfo and a PTBNL to the Rockies for Elias Diaz to add a defensive minded backup catcher. This allows us to DH Grandal a bit more, hopefully keeping him healthier and letting Sheets sit against LHP. Last on the agenda is the bullpen and pitching depth. The first order of business is freeing up some funds by dumping Dallas Keuchel on the Giants. To be conservative, I'm assuming we'd have to eat $8M of the $18M he's owed and basically get a C prospect back. I would then take those savings and sign Collin McHugh to a 2/$11M deal to serve as our second swingman alongside Lopez. Next on the list is trading Craig Kimbrel to the Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez, who has the chance to be a highly valuable setup and comes with three years of control. To cap off the major league bullpen, I'm trading Jake Burger for Cole Susler. While I'd love to keep Jake, I just feel like we need a legit setup man who is cheap and controllable and Susler fits the bill with four years of control left and a 2022 salary around $600k. I'd also look to sign someone Julio Teheran to a minor league deal to ensure we have plenty of options to eat innings as injuries occur. Total payroll comes in just shy of $180M and that includes $8M of dead money. To me, none of these moves feel unrealistic and I think we've improved all our areas of weakness. Honestly, I think you could argue this roster would immediately be the best in the AL and every major move would hopefully provide value well beyond the 2022 season.

Alright guys, I know @bmags may eventually provide a worksheet for this, but I figured it's time to have an official "2022 offseason plan" thread given that free agency has officially begun. The purpose of this thread is to post your own plan and not necessarily what you think our front office will do. The only rule I'm setting is you can not go past $185M for 2022 payroll, which is probably pushing the optimistic range to the fullest. Crazy trades and atypical free agent signings are fine as long as they fit into the total 2022 budget. Also, feel free to comment on and/or question other people's plan as the goal here is to drive conversation while we actually wait for some action. Also, below are three helpful links when it comes to payroll figures: Free agents: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html Arb estimates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html MLB salaries: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/base/ (use "Base Salaries" for this exercise")

Syndergaard had TJS like a sizable portion of major league pitchers. Before that he had four seasons where he made 25+ starts including three with 30+. He’s accumulated 18.7 fWAR over 120 starts with a 2.93 FIP. Eduardo Rodriguez missed the 2020 season due myocarditis / COVID. Before that he had six straight seasons with 25+ starts including two with 30+ (which just so happen to be his last two). He’s accumulated 14.6 fWAR over 153 starts with a 3.83 FIP. Carlos has missed time for a multitude of reasons, including elbow, bicep, and shoulder ailments. He has four seasons with 24+ starts but none with 30+. He’s accumulated 11.9 fWAR over 116 starts (~41% coming from this past season) with a 3.94 FIP. So again, one has performed significantly better than Rodon over the course of his career, while the other has a much better track record of health unless you want to punish him for a random issue resulting from a bizarre global pandemic.

Let’s put this in the right spot. Out of all the fake foodie insiders, Portillo’s is definitely my favorite. RIP Orlando…I mean Al’s Cheesy Beef.

It has begun.

He’s certainly not Soler bad.

This is the way.

?