Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 07:46 PM) I think that is the only way the Cubs will sign him. I'm actually more worried about the Cubs signing him than the Yankees & Dodgers. The Cubs have enough money to make a ridiculous offer without luxury tax consequences, desperately need to add quality starting pitching, and could use a major PR win with the fans. The Cubs are the one team IMO with the motives to do something really stupid here.

QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 05:28 PM) What info? Before this thread got caulfield'd, a poster claimed the Score was reporting the Sox were backing off Tanaka because he was getting too expensive. Not sure if anyone else heard this, because Rongey made no mention of this on his last update.

Did anyone hear this Score update? If so, is this a Berstein "source" or has a real insider provided this info?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 05:59 PM) Semien doesn't really have any outstanding tools. He is above average on just about everything. These types don't generally make the list. He had a .420 OBP in AA with more BBs than Ks. Plate discipline may not be a tool, but it is a skill and Semien demonstrated it extremely well last year. Given the value of OBP, I'm not sure why this skill is less important than any physical tool.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 10:30 AM) Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 6 Jan They're close. I have Semien ahead in my rankings. RT @bigcardsfanphil how much of a gap do you see between Wong and Semien? That's high praise considering that Wong is almost universally considered a top #100 prospect. This quote pretty much says that Semien is not a top 100 prospect. It also suggests that Davidson may not make it either. I'll be interested in seeing where Wong ends up in these rankings now Badler made that comment.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 09:04 AM) And Semien at #2 is interesting. While I don't agree with his #2 ranking, I do think he's being underrated by a lot people. The kid absolutely dominated AA in an age-appropriate season, while demonstrating incredible plate discipline. Maybe I'm wrong, but prospects that can show that kind of plate discipline at the higher levels typically fair better against major league pitching. Also, in terms of comps, he was better offensively than other top 100 prospects like Joc Pederson & Arismendy Alcantara. Unfortunately, John Maneul said in his Sox chat that Semien won't be cracking this year's list. It really bothers me that Baseball America believes there are 100+ prospects out there that are better than a 22 year old middle infielder that posted a .903 OPS & 167 wRC+ in AA.

Maybe I'm wrong, but aren't these projection systems typically pretty bad with young players? Also, I'd love to see what they're projecting for Erik Johnson based on those comments.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) .240 average, 17 homers, 118 games played That would be horrific for so many reasons.

My first year expectations: .270/.330/.510/.840 Honestly, other than the slugging, nothing too crazy there. That's a top 10 1B in terms of OPS, but it's near the bottom end of the spectrum and low on the OBP side. The one tool that has consistently been praised by scouts is his power, so I think that number is fairly reasonable, especially playing half his games in the Cell. I do think his K & BB rates will improve as he adjusts to major league pitching, so long-term I think you're looking at a .900 OPS type player. In this environment, that would make him one of the best 1B in baseball. Again, Abreu's power should be elite, so if he can make average contact, I really believe these are realistic expections. If not, we're probably in serious trouble, because I don't think his Cuban League BB rate will translate very well to the MLB (lots of intentional walks skewing his OBP). A high K rate would likely result in a Mark Trumbo type player, which despite the return the Angels got for him, would be pretty disappointing to say the least.

QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 12:21 AM) I think people are overreacting how much the Yankees are willing to pay for Tanaka. I'm sure they are going to be in it for the 15-20 million annual range, but I don't see them willing to spend over 20 million annually on him. They still have to deal with A-Rod after this year, and if they go over 20 million on Tanaka they are right back to where they were with no breathing room under the luxury tax. I'd be more worried about the Dodgers being the ones to spoil all the fun and offer him something nuts. http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=21500933&...w.google.com%2F One thing to point out about the Yankees is that they were at the their luxury tax threshold prior to the A-Rod suspension, but that number that did not include arb & pre-arb players. MLBTradeRumors.com projects their 5 arb eligible players to make about $15M next year and if you throw in another $3M to complete the roster, they'll probably be $4M under the threshold after their $22M in savings from the A-Rod suspension. This is assuming they make no other major moves. So for the Yankees to add Tanaka, they'd have to go over the luxury tax threshold and pay 50% in penalties for every dollar over $4M. If Tanaka were to get an AAV of $20M, the Yankees would pay $8M in penalties. I'm not sure if that itself is a big deal for them, but right now they have the opportunity to reset their luxury tax rate to 17.5%, which has been a goal of the Yankees. Assuming the article above is accurate, I don't see how they can add Tanaka and fall below the threshold. It would have to be one or the other.

QUOTE (zenryan @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 11:38 AM) I hope he wins his appeal federal appeal and only gets the first time offender penalty. The Yankees knew what they were paying for when they signed him. The NYY organization shouldnt be able to weasel their way out of this ridiculous contract. I'm sorry, but A-Rod is a multi-time offender and grade A asshole. I'm happy he's losing a year of his salary, even if it helps the Yankees.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 11:10 AM) Good riddance. I'm glad by and large the arbitrator held this up. Bad news is the Yankees can now really front load a deal with Tanaka and throw a lot of coin without being too worried about luxury tax payments this year. Salaries are on a straight-line basis for luxury tax purposes, so they won't be able to front-load a Tanaka.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) They're also negotiating their WGN TV deal, they have more than enough money. The Sox chance lies in how creative they are willing to be. Tons of money up front with a 3-4 year player out and being competitive over a 6-7 year offer. It's a longshot still. Yup, pretty much agree with everything you say here. The Sox are likely on the outside looking in on Tanaka, so they'll need to do something creative to have any chance to get a deal done. While I think it's a huge long-shot, the Jose Abreu deal was pretty creative (opt-out to arbitration after year 3) so maybe Hahn will shock the world. Glad they're being active in these discussions though.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 11:03 AM) The link in the other thread has the Cubs opening day payroll being at $78 million this year. That's their projected payroll right now assuming no Tanaka and that would be like a 22% decrease in payroll from 2013. I'm extremely confident that Theo could bump that number up to $100M for the right player (i.e. Tanaka). He's just not going to spend money to simply spend money like he did with Edwin Jackson. He's only looking at impact guys that can fit their time-table, which is at least another two years out before they'll be competitive IMO. Given that Tanaka is 25 years old, he can be part of the long-term core and is probably worth investing in now. Not a lot of free agents fit that bill this year, which is why Theo hasn't spending the money he does have available.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) Eh, I don't know. In all honesty, from everything I've read and heard on the radio, the Ricketts really seem like a family who took a chance on their favorite franchise being available and hopping at the chance to buy them, not realizing how much overhead goes into running the franchise and all the improvements the Cubs needed. Theo and Jed have wanted to add high priced FA's to mix in with their young prospects. Tom seems to think though, that Theo is like Friedman and can simply just fill the team with prospects. This is true, which is why the Cubs' payroll have gone from the $140Ms to the low $100Ms. On top of that, let's not forget that the Cubs have spent big dollars on the draft and in Latin America. I'm not arguing that Theo & Jed thought they'd have more resources to work with, but the Cubs don't have a lot of long-term salary commitments. There's really no debate here because they've had $100M payrolls under the Ricketts ownership and $32M committed for 2015 right now. They can easly fit Tanaka if they want him.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) There are serious doubts about how much money the Cubs can spend -- they have very few future salary commitments, but adding a $20M/year guy will make things real tight over there The Cubs should have plenty of room for Tanaka. This is a team that was rocking $140M+ payrolls a few years ago and still has been over $100M under the Ricketts family despite a big chunk of revenue being used to pay off their debt. On top of that, they just got $25M in extra national TV deal money. Given that they only have $32M in payroll committments for 2015, there is no doubt in my mind they could easily fit Tanaka in their long-term plans.

QUOTE (timbo @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 10:17 PM) find some intresing stuff http://yakyubaka.com/2014/01/11/1112014-ma...aka-news-notes/ That article says Jerry was in attendance, which means our interest must be pretty serious.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 07:26 PM) Which trade do you guys prefer? Hector for Eaton or Reed for Davidson? I think the Eaton trade is a lot safer and there is a good chance we win that one. With the Davidson acquisition, I think it could easily go either way, but if we do end up winning that trade it'll be by a landslide. Agree with everything you say here. I really like both moves, but I love the Reed for Davidson move and I know we have a high probability of losing the deal. 3B is one of the weakest positions in baseball right now and a huge trouble spot for our organization. Acquiring a 23 year old, major league ready 3B with tons of upside for a non-elite closer just makes so much sense for us right now. Obviously it's a risky move given Reed's major league success and Davidson's huge bust potential (ridculously high K rate), but part of that risk can be mitigated by turning Nate Jones into a solid closer and potentially an attractive trade chip. Regardless, I'll take my chances on possibly filling a gigantic hole with a young player with massive potential at the expense of a closer during what will likely be a non-competitive season.

While his tools may not be flashy, I honestly think Eaton has a really high floor. The fact is Eaton gets on-base at a very high rate and has above-average speed. Assuming he can play a solid CF, he'll be an incredibly valuable player for us. He may not have superstar potential, but worst case scenario he'll be a decent leadoff hitter with the possibility to be much more.

We were never going to outbid the Dodgers & Yankees for Tanaka. Our only chance was either luck (some connection to the White Sox or Chicago) or creativity (opt-out to free agency after a few years, etc). I don't see how anything has changed, since we should have been considered a huge long-shot from the beginning with the Yankees & Dodgers involved.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 11:50 AM) I totally understand and you're right. I'm just having a difficult time believing he will rebound as long as he keeps showing the ball to hitters the way he does. From 2008 to 2011, Johnny put up WARs of 5.0, 2.9, 4.3, & 3.1. Was he showing the ball to hitters then, because that's an incredibly productive stretch. Even at the low-end of his performance, he's a 3 WAR player and easily worth his contract. I get that we're all disappointed with his 2012 & 2013 seasons, but obviously they were the result of injuries. He should be closer to normal next year and I don't see why a 3.0 WAR is that unreasonable. That's incredibly valuable as our #3 or #4 starter and he gives us a much better chance to win than giving his 30 starts to Rienzo, Paulino, or Surkamp. With or without Tanaka, Danks make sense for our rotation in 2014. Let him rebuild his value and then reevaluate your SP situation. By next year, you may have Beck knocking at the door and/or Hoffman waiting in the wings. Until then, give him 30 starts next year and hope we see the Danks that was one of the better, young left-handed starters from 2008 to 2011.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 10:42 AM) I love Danks and all he's done, but if they could seriously just give Danks away right now, I wouldn't care. Gotta disagree with you here. We aren't hurting for money and Danks is four good months away from being a valuable trade deadline chip. Trading him now for pennies on the dollar would be incredibly short-sighted. And for our own competitive purposes, Danks at 95% of his peak performance is still a much better starting option than Rienzo, Paulino, & Surkamp. I'll take my chances he'll be close to his former self in 2014 rather than just give him away in fear he'll never come close to returning to form.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 09:57 AM) I approve. I haven't loved every one one of his trades but when you look at the whole body of work, he clearly has a plan and I like the way he's going about things. And the Reed for Davidson deal is one of my favorite trades ever. Exactly, I don't think anyone here can disagree with Hahn's vision. He's added youth to the major league roster, without sacrificing resources for the minors. Obviously getting that youth came at a cost (money, Peavy, Santiago, & Reed), but it's a price I'm sure most of us will have no problem paying if three of Abreu, Garcia, Eaton, & Davidson work out. That's why it's impossible to truly judge Hahn just yet. He may have a great plan, but if he and his scouts can't pick the right players to draft and trade for, his vision could end up meaningless. So I give his vision an A+, but his performance a TBD.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 9, 2014 -> 06:29 PM) Sounds like they are doing what every team is doing. Exploring what his interests are. Yup, and finally acting like the big market team they should be. We should alway be looking into guys like Tanaka, and if they are too expensive, hopefully we've at least driven up the final price for the winner. I don't think we have a chance in hell at Tanaka, but I'm extremely happy we're doing our due diligence.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 7, 2014 -> 05:11 PM) Some guys ride a rocket to the majors. Huddy went through 4 or 5 levels in a single season and wasn't mishandled. Granted, he was 22, not 19. I trust that the org promotes their Ps appropriately, not so much their hitters. In the chat, Manuel actually said the Sox viewed Danish similar to Hudson and thought that he could move fast. He also said that Doug Laumann was so high on Danish that he would have been willing to select him I the first round. I think it's pretty clear that the Sox don't feel Danish is your average HS pitching prospect and that they won't be handling him with kid's gloves.