Chicago White Sox

Because Conforto is elite against RHP. That hitting ability and average defense ranked him as the 9th most valuable OF from 2017 to 2020. I’m really not sure what your beef is with Conforto or why you’re assuming he gets $100M. Care to elaborate? As for Engel, he has never once shown he can withstand the rigors of a full season, so he should not be in consideration for an everyday role. And for the record, I’d love to have Semien, but I don’t think paying him SS money to play 2B is the best uses of our limited resources and I think Conforto better balances the offense for much less. Either way, I’d be ecstatic with us adding another impact player regardless of position.

People want Conforto because he’s elite against RHP and would provide much needed balance to the lineup. These people also recognize his average defense would be a massive upgrade over Vaughn and Sheets in RF. No one is arguing he’s some defensive wizard.

It’s not just a few missed fly balls. It’s a lack of range that allows for more hits falling while also allowing base runners to grab extra bases more frequently. No one is saying that will make these guys negative value players, but it’s optimization and will cap the value these guys can provide.

Cespedes did nothing to warrant any long-term planning around and Colas isn’t even part of the organization yet. They should not even enter the equation at this point.

No, that is not the question. Both guys will create more runs than they will cost us, but the question is whether there is a LF/RF pairing that will provide more overall value. If half of Vaughn’s hitting value is eliminated by shitty RF defense, he’s goes from being a special player to a somewhat ordinary guy. And yes, if I can have two Hall of Fame hitters in the corners then I’ll sacrifice some defense, but that’s not a practical example and you’d still be better off just moving one of them to DH. As for Conforto, what are you basing this on? In RF he’s been graded as average or slightly better by UZR, DRS, & OAA prior to the 2021 season in which he was injured. If you’re looking at Fangraphs than his dWAR is impacted by his CF and defense and a positional adjustment when in the corners. Regardless, scouting reports have him as an average defensive outfielder and that’s significantly better than what we’ll get from Vaughn or Sheets.

A run saved is equal to a run created, so defense always matter. If you throw a guy out of position and he sucks defensively, then it will negate a chunk of the offensive value he provides. And this stuff isn’t linear. An outfield can typically hide one bad defensive player, but surround Robert with weakness on both sides and suddenly you have a legit problem.

Generally speaking, you don’t think guys typically make more on a one year basis than a long-term deal? And especially when talking about an aging catcher?

They aren’t predictive, but rather simply point out just how bad they were in a very small sample. What is predictive is the fact that neither has the speed or athleticism to ever be an average RF. Sheets is a lumbering 6’5”, 230 pounds and Vaughn is straight up too slow. I think Andrew could possibly work in LF because he seems to get all the balls hit to him, but range will always be a problem and I don’t need advanced metrics to tell me otherwise.

Sheets put up a -2 OAA in 82 innings in RF and Vaughn put up a -2 OAA in 118 RF innings. I can’t stress enough how bad these guys were out there. Using them as a RF platoon is not setting this roster up for success as too much of their offensive value will be negated by shitty defense. And you can’t look at this stuff in a vacuum as context matters. We already have a bad defensive LF in Eloy. With a halfway decent RF, you can have Robert cheat a bit to the left and limit the amount of space Eloy needs to cover. With one of two slow footed RFs, we are literally fucked.

It’s just that people lump his CF & LF/RF defense into one bucket and draw incorrect conclusions. From 2017 to 2020, he had a DRS of 6 in RF. During this same period his OAA was 4 for RF. Additionally, his UZR/150 was positive in three of these four years. Generally speaking, he’s graded out to an average or slight above RF. That matches scouting reports as well. As for this year, his defense was graded poorly, but he was injured and there is nothing predictive about one years worth of defensive metrics.

That Conforto is bad? I would definitely make the argument he’s not bad.

It’s not trading Vaughn to make room for Gavin. It’s trading Vaughn to add a cornerstone guy at a greater position of need. I get it’s easy to say “just go spend money” to fill all our holes, but that’s not remotely realistic with Jerry as owner. We desperately need another high-end pitcher and a left-handed bat of some sorts at minimum plus multiple bullpen arms. Once we run out of money, it’s going to be near impossible for us to continuing adding without subtracting from the major league roster. Again, I just don’t see how we address all our needs without tapping into our LF/1B/DH glut. Hopefully I’m wrong and Hahn finds a way to make it all work.

Exactly. For OAA, Conforto was in the 63rd percentile whereas Vaughn in the 6th. Even if you make the argument Conforto is not a good defensive OF, he’s clearly not Vaughn levels of bad.

I was reading this article earlier and thinking this is probably the Sox’s way of thinking. We know they like to move fast under normal circumstances, but this offseason places additional incentives to get your guy early if possible.

Fully agree. I love Jose so much, but having $18M to address other needs and then being able to start Vaughn at 1B, Sheets at DH, and with Grandal & Burger in the mix as needed makes it so much easier to build a compete roster.

Why is Conforto unlikely to sign here?

What if you’re getting another cornerstone type player in return, but one who provides more defensive utility? I guess I struggle to see how we fill all our needs without moving one of our LF/1B/DH types. Abreu is untradable, Eloy would be selling at his low point, and Sheets won’t get you that much in return. Just feels like Vaughn is the one guy who you can legit get value and still have a solid DH option.

I really don’t see how Vaughn survives the offseason with us unless we are going to sacrifice RF defense. Hahn has continued to stress improving the defense is critical, but that’s going to be tough if your improvements are limited to 2B. Something has got to give and I think Vaughn is the piece that gets moved because he’ll return the most value and will be attractive to the most teams.

That’s going to be some brutal OF defense and negate a lot of the value these kids provide with the bat. I’d rather use one of Vaughn/Sheets at DH and get me a real RF.

He was injured last year and that down year will be factored into the price. What would you rather do to address RF and add more balance to the lineup?

I think you’re misrepresenting Boras a bit here. He literally comes up with outlandish asks for his mega-stars and will wait out as long as possible until a team meets it. Once a team does meet that price (or comes close enough), I’m pretty sure he actually accepts without a bunch of gamemanship. And he definitely has his go to clubs for star players as he knows there are only so many clubs who can take on massive contracts late in the off-season.

While I don’t think Varsho is realistic, I do like the outside the box thinking and feel like Hahn will need to be creative this offseason.

I’m still just not sure why the Dbacks would trade him given his age / control. Marte is a much more realistic target for us. The challenge there is the only piece we have that gets you in the conversation is Vaughn and they already have a few 1B/DH types in Smith and Beer. Maybe they can be convinced Vaughn can play a passable LF long-term. Regardless, Marte is the guy we should pursuing if we’re looking for an impact player via trade.

Are you actually comparing Conforto & Semien to two dudes that cleared $300M? I fully agree that Semien is extremely unlikely, but these dudes are nothing like “Harpchado”.