Chicago White Sox

Dude, we don’t have “a lot of depth” to pull off a trade like that and those teams would be looking for potential impact talent anyways.

I 100% agree with that. Unfortunately though we are limited by how much Jerry is willing to spend, so if you’re Hahn / KW you may have to decide how much of the future you are willing to sacrifice for your shot right now. I’m not saying trading long-term assets for Gray is the right or wrong call, but there is an argument for building the strongest roster possible (within reason) for the next three years while you have a great core in place and not banking on someone like Cease taking a big step forward. Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather shoot for sustainable success and not risk shortening our window by moving young controllable pieces, but there is some logic to taking your shot when the opportunity presents itself. Ultimately, these guys need to decide if they want to take on additional risk now or in the back-half of their competitive window since Jerry won’t spend enough to make the decision moot.

I’m not defending the logic, but all these guys are likely to be materially better than Quintana next year & beyond. As for Lynn, who cares if he’s fat when he’s a damn good pitcher who’s proven he can pitch at that weight?

I’d rather have Musgrove assuming he comes way cheaper. I think the Reds will want major league ready pieces for Gray.

What about Cease? Seems like a guy the Reds would be all over.

The one trade I could see happening is Gray for Cease + Heuer. The Sox land a legit #2 or #3 starter for the next three years ($10.7M per) that gives them a big four that would rival anyone in the AL. The Reds gets an immediate replacement for Gray with five years of control & significant upside plus a young, high potential reliever with options all while saving nearly $9M in 2021. The Sox adding Hendriks would make Heuer much more expendable, although we’d still need another depth starter. And Cease seems like a guy the Reds would absolutely love, as he’s got all the tools needed to be a legit TOR starter, but needs to make some grip / mechanical adjustments to reduce the cut on his 4 seamer and improve his overall command of the pitch.

Possibly...I’m not entirely convinced, but either way we have Steve Stone saying a trade may be likely. That alone should be considered smoke.

Obviously the foodies could be jumping in off raBBit’s or Stone’s comments, but it’s interesting nonetheless and worth discussing. Therefore, how would you feel about trading for one of these guys rather than signing a #4 type starter in free agency? What do you think the cost would be to acquire one of them?

There is suddenly some real smoke that the Sox may be exploring trades for controllable starting pitchers. First, we had this series of tweets from our raBBit: Next, fathom posted this little nugget that he heard from a Steve Stone interview yesterday: Now, the foodies have jumped on the bandwagon with these tweets:

Please convince Friedman to make you GM so we can make this trade.

That’s assuming everyone is healthy which is probably not realistic coming off last season and not what we should be planning for IMO.

He’d already be on the Sox if that were the case.

Where has this been said? I probably missed it.

Other than budgets, roster spots, and the development of our young arms.

The problem is we can’t afford to trade these guys and manage to have enough depth now that Dunning is gone. Right now we still need to add a starter, so including Cease or Kopech in a package for one has us still short one. Plus we’d be selling low on both guys. I just can’t see it in all honesty...at least after the Lynn trade.

I totally get what you’re saying, although I don’t agree they’re as close you think they are. That being said, all else being equal, yeah I’d rather spend money than trade our prospects. I do think Musgrove is far more interesting than the free agents willing to take a 1/$10Mish deal though.

I would take Musgrove. 1) Three years younger. 2) Has recently put up a 170 inning season (Smyly hasn’t since 2016) and is less likely to tire out over the course of a full season. 3) Better xwOBA in small sample that was 2020 (.268 vs .287). 4) Solid xwOBA in larger sample that was 2019 (.312) while Smyly really struggled (probably due recovering from his injury, but still somewhat a red flag). 5) Higher spin rates / more movement on his breaking balls. I actually think Smyly is a pretty fascinating buy low guy, but I’d definitely have more confidence in Musgrove.

It has everything to do with ERA. This is one of the maddening debates I have ever witnessed on this board. FIP is an estimate of what a pitcher’s ERA would be independent of fielding, luck, and sequencing (i.e. the things they control). If you think there are other variables that a pitcher can control (implying that FIP is incomplete), that’s a different argument. However, saying FIP has nothing to do with ERA or can’t be compared to it is 100% wrong. That’s literally its entire purpose.

If the price is right...hopefully!

Sounds like his future is in the bullpen

100% depends on the price for Musgrove. To be honest, I’m a little worried they spend most of their money on Hendriks and then trade for a cheap C tier starter like Brault. I really want to land Hendriks, but not at the expense of a decent 4th starter.

That includes about $4.6M in pro-rated signing bonuses. Not sure how they account for those internally since they are non-cash at this point, but that would further limit our spending ability if they include them in their $135M to $140M payroll target.

Moving on from FIP, what’s your breaking point on a Joe Musgrove trade? Who’s willing to do something Thompson + Beard + Adolfo? If yes, how much further would you be willing to go?

Which is why balls in play are excluded from the equation.

Wasn’t last year at $130M? If it weren’t for the pandemic, I’d expect us to be $150M+, so it doesn’t really feel all that outlandish.