Eminor3rd

From Cistulli's Fringe Five, upon which Semien was featured highly and loudly all last year, we have from Montas love: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-...e-prospects-28/

Jose Abreu was not a "diamond in the rough." We was the best, most developed, most mature, and most celebrated hitter on the island of Cuba. No one had to "find" him.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 12:17 PM) Coincidentally I am listening to that podcast right now and came here to post about how Parks says if he were a GM, he would take Aaron Nola over Tyler Kolek. Parks thinks that Kolek is all arm, and has not learned any pitchability yet. Pretty much views him as high risk/high reward, where he views Nola as not as high of a reward, but much safer. The thing I took from that wasn't so much that Nola was safer, but that people were underrating his stuff. Touches mid-90's with three good pitches (I think I posted something about it a few pages back). But then I saw Doug Thorburn's recent Rasing Aces post where he broke down the mechanics of the top 4 SP prospects and came away a big fan of Kolek's mechanics: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=23731

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:48 AM) Where was Parks discussing it? Fringe Average podcast? Yes, I believe it was the one before the most recent.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:32 AM) I expect the GM to make better use of his trading chips, Jury is still out, but the return Hahn received so far is underwhelming. I don't see any evidence to suggest that Han didn't squeeze everything he could out of the guys he's traded. I agree with you that I thought Peavy/Rios would have been worth more, but the way he dragged both trades out to the absolute limit tells me that we overestimated the market as fans and that Hahn got the most he could.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:30 AM) I think the trade deadline should be August 31st. That seems to be against what the league is trying to do though, which appears to be discouraging as many teams as possible to give up and deal guys. Moving the deadline would be best for the GMs, certainly, but I'm not sure it's best for the majority of fans. And it might not be best for attendance.

Kolek is my guess, wishful thinking that they'll reconsider if Rodon drops.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:41 AM) I thought the biggest knock on him this season was his fastball command, I didn't hear many complaints about his slider, aside from overusing it. But the "inconsistency of his stuff" could be a byproduct of the increased attention, if you see every single pitch he throws all year, you aren't going to get eye-popping stuff every outing. My point on Rodon, and again remember I prefer Aiken and would be fine with Kolek, is that he's had 49 starts in college under intense scrutiny and pitched extremely well. Even when is stuff wasn't on, he rarely gets rocked or leaves a game early. Brady Aiken made 11 starts this year against local high school batters, that's a very small sample size to justify a 5.71 million decision. I will be fascinated on Thursday if the Sox have to choose between Rodon and Kolek/Aiken or even Nola and Kolek/Aiken. One of the interesting thing I heard Jason parks say regarding Rodon was that for anyone who has seen his best, it's impossible to erase "what's possible" in your head. The fact that he's been so good at times means that he "can" be that good if you can make him consistent (assuming stuff doesn't degrade). Even though this isn't a slam dunk because so many things can change, it is, in a way, a MUCH safer assessment of ceiling than something based solely on "projection." Put another way, maybe we can imagine Aiken/Kolek's ceiling as high or higher than Rodon's if they learn to to the things we think they could learn to do, but we've actually seen Rodon DO these things at some point or another.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:08 AM) I understand it's all about stuff and projectability, but I think it's funny people are considering Rodon's season such a disappointment. His numbers improved nearly across the board from last season, lower ERA, walk rate, and homer rate. The only things that spiked were his H/9, but when you decrease walks that will happen, his WHIP only increased slightly. His strikeout rate per nine innings for 2014 was actually above his mythical 2012 freshmen season number (10.67 to 10.60). Honestly I think the biggest reason Rodon's stock fell this year is the incredibly scrutiny that was placed on him and the rise of the other prospects. I personally prefer Aiken, but if we ended up with Rodon we are getting a very, very good pitcher who has been a workhorse under the microscope for a long time. From what I've read/heard on podcasts, the knock on Rodon has been the inconsistency of his stuff. The velocity has fluctuated a lot and there have been starts where he only "flashes" his 80 slider. As always, you fear that kind of inconsistency because pitchers' raw "stuff" tends to decline steadily from the day they are drafted; guys never throw harder than in their early 20's, typically.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:56 AM) He has his moments. The range is good, and the arm is strong. What do the metrics say, because I'm just going off what I've watched? UZR calls him basically average. I've always felt like he was a bit above, but if there's one area to trust the advanced metrics over your eyes, it's range, IMO. I think it's extremely difficult to judge because whenever a guy goes to his limit, it always SEEMS like he went far, but the mind really has no frame of reference. You can't "remember" how far other guys have gone in the past. It's the whole "past-a-diving" Jeter thing -- he would make "great plays" on stuff that better defenders would make look routine. It takes an extremely practiced and trained eye to be able to see that at the ML level, and it's practically impossible on TV when you rarely ever see where they started or how quickly they reacted. So, the short of it is that the advanced metrics say that while he is certainly a decent defender, he isn't nearly as good as Hawk leads us to believe, and not nearly good enough to make up for a poor bat. If he hits, he'll be fine, but we shouldn't give him a longer leash because of his average-ish glove.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:55 AM) I believe you are right if all things are equal, but it muddies the water if Rodon would want to sign over slot and Nola would be willing to work a deal. It's a consideration, certainly, but IMO, the only way you are better off going underslot in the first 5 picks is if you only see a marginal difference between your cheap guy and expensive guy. Otherwise, you're getting a shot at talent that you simply can't buy any other time of the year. Take the guy and pay him. The upside of the underslot is signing a 30-ish pick at 44. That isn't nothing, but it isn't worth passing on the consensus BPA at #3.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:54 AM) I've changed my tune on Kolek. Take the upside and hope. If he needs TJS in a year, well, join the club. Take the kid, and draft a college pitcher at 44. Me too. The more I actually watch him and read, the more I love his motion and mechanics and see upper 90's as sustainable and NOT max effort for him. I still prefer Rodon, but if we pop Kolek on draft day, I'll be content.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:42 AM) Not referring to the HISTORICAL, fielding-only version of Escobar, but the .781 OPS, 15 doubles in 130+ ab's version. THIS year. Career-wise, he's at only .646, or basically what Gordon Beckham has produced the past 3 seasons, more or less. A slightly better version of Andy Gonzalez, maybe. But, if you honestly believe Saladino can come up this season and put up those numbers, then he should be starting somewhere in the White Sox line-up on a nearly everyday basis. So the one on a hot streak?

I'd LOVE Nola at say, pick 5 or 6. I can honestly even see an argument for taking him over Kolek or Aiken purely because you fear the uncertainty of HS pitchers. But Nola over Rodon? They're both 1-2 years from having a shot to stick in the majors and Rodon has a way higher ceiling. I bet literally every team would take Rodon over Nola. EDIT: Now that I've said that, I fully realized I've sealed Nola's fate as this year's 1-1 at about $5m underslot.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:47 AM) My gut: 1. Rodon 2. Kolek 3. Nola 4. Aiken Our draft board?

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:25 AM) If they took Rodon, and then failed to sign him for slot, I would have no choice but to flip over a table and four chairs. Lol me too. But I think they'd sign him. He's seen his stock plummet over the course of a year, he won't risk it to be put in a position with even less leverage next year.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 03:14 PM) I just think it's kind of sad that all that money that's gone to Dunn could have gone to Mark. Arguably having a stud like him in the rotation would have kept the Sox in contention during this "rebuilding." All Dunn has provided is ... well, I won't go into that again. Dunn had a chance to propel the franchise into the playoffs, Mark was a declining mid-rotation starter. It's extremely easy to see why those moves were made. That they didn't work out doesn't change the validity of the decisions. There was ALWAYS a chance they'd work out or not work out, and I'd prefer my team go for the win every time in that situation. The immediate, worst-case scenario collapse of Dunn's career was far less likely an outcome than that of him continuing his career production along a normal trajectory. It also needs to be noted that Buerhle's success right now is almost entirely a result of an extremely flukey HR/FB rate. I'm not saying that HR/FB is all "luck," but his current rate isn't sustainable by anyone ever and it's almost 10% lower than his career level. This is another situation (like Flowers and his BABIP) where unless you think he's changed something this year that's made him the best of alltime at HR prevention, you have to acknowledge that it is not going to last and very likely would not have occurred under different circumstances.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 05:39 PM) I think Hawkins had Wite at the back flip. I think Hawkins had wite at the "young for his level and showing marked improvement." Seriously, I've NEVER seen so many people jump off a bandwagon so fast. I can't even see the argument -- underaged prospect struggles in midst of very aggressive promotion, immediately labelled bust. Repeats level, still young for it, shows substantial improvement, still a bust.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:06 AM) No Rodon even if he's available? Because of signability issues, delivery issues, both, neither? If they took Nola over Rodon, I would have no choice but to actually flip a table.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 05:23 PM) Like it or not though, this is the core and if it isn't Sale goes on the market. Lol, no he doesn't. Sale is 25 and under contract for like 6 years. They will be encouraged by the marked improvement in the team's performance year over year, and they will continue to add talent.

There's no doubt Hawk is among the most well-known announcers -- but he's almost universally hated and/or mocked.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 09:37 PM) He was really tough on him actually but he did make one comment to defend him. Vin Scully is truly awful. Turn him off. Wow, really? Scully is one of the few popular things I find NOT to be overrated, lol. It's a really refreshing pace, I think. And his voice is great, and he always seems to be in a good mood.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 09:28 PM) Hawk will not shut up now for GB.............he has to get in the standard line GB and Cano best in AL for the 200th time this year. Bias that hard cheapens the experience. What was his excuse last night? I had it on Vin Scully.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) Well now, who does that sound just like? Every positional prospect in the entire system.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) I agree, OBP was just the example that you said was correlated to winning. However, it applies to everything he uses as well. He uses data based on all of the games played. Which as I stated before includes the poorer teams and pitchers. It works in the regular season but it is not the same sample that occurs during the post season. This is only the good teams or players This is why I think it doesn't necessarily apply to being successful in the post-season. edit: you could look at the players in a retrospective study and see how they do against only the top 20 pitchers or so. This may tell you more about the validity of the process, if post season success is your goal. That would indeed be an interesting study. I'd guess it would mirror that of most players. It seems to me that only the very elite are hitting well against high end pitching. But that could be enough of a difference that the $200m spenders could have a conceivable advantage.