Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 30, 2014 -> 11:22 AM) Dan Bernstein wrote another White Sox related column today. It is right here: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/05/30/ber...wers-white-sox/ Just your annual "here's what you've missed, Blackhawks fans" post. No juicy Soxtalk controversy forthcoming, alas.

This is why when you don't have the benefit of statistically significant performance samples, you have to rely on peripheral information. So like: Did Noesi gain velocity? He he appeared to gain stamina? Has he learned or mastered a new pitch? Or have balls just not been dropping?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 30, 2014 -> 11:58 AM) The White Sox need starting pitching. Not shedding it. Exactly. What do you want to trade him for? The offense is currently better than the staff and there's way more help coming from the minors on the position side than on the pitching side.

Aw.

When was the last time two of the top three teams were over .500 this close to draft day?

QUOTE (southside hitman @ May 30, 2014 -> 09:46 AM) http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-...t-from-fiction/ New Baseball American mock draft has the Sox passing on Carlos Rodon for Tyler Kolek. His reasoning is below... WHITE SOX: The talk to this point has been that the White Sox would not pass on Rodon if he were available here. That talk persists, but so do the rumors linking Chicago to outsized Texas high school flamethrower Tyler Kolek. The Cubs are watching closely because while Kolek is not a Cubs target, Rodon is. The White Sox have a bigger bonus pool than the Cubs, but Rodon likely would eat up more of it. Projected Pick: RHP Tyler Kolek In his scenario, Houston takes Aiken and Jackson goes to Miami. I think I just want Rodon at this point.

I get scared on Kolek simply because he is, by definition, an outlier. Our standards of injury risk have never included someone THIS young throwing THIS hard. This, of course, doesn't mean he's absolutely at higher risk, but I've got to feel like it's more likely to make him higher risk than lower risk. It's more stress than ever on a younger ligament than ever.

I'm having trouble finding league average strong side split data. Is that kind of an OPS even remotely sustainable?

No -- it's a similar argument to why you don't trade Sale. These are the guys you hope the prospects turn into. At some point you have to retain some of them in order to build a core.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 30, 2014 -> 07:48 AM) Then why weren't you concerned about the $2 million they would be blowing on Paulino? Isn't that money that could have been spent elsewhere BUDDY? Gregor Polanco was signed for $175k. There is plenty of money, and not a lot of future committments. Seriously? You don't understand why I'm less concerned about $2m than I am about $50m and a draft pick?

Also, if not supporting the idea of DFA'ing Adam Dunn and eating $15-30m in salary apparently = "sticking up for Adam Dunn," you're really grasping hard for an analog to Ubaldo.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 30, 2014 -> 07:40 AM) My wager proposition was with Balta because of the Jimenez/Noesi ERA issue. For some people who think Jimenez sucks and always will, you guys sure do seem nervous he might wind up with a decent ERA. No one is nervous, we just aren't interested in how you're insisting on ignoring the entire argument solely for the sake of finding one pointless piece of data you can be right about. Everyone's opposition to signing Jimenez was always about way, way, way more than whatever his ERA is this year, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:33 AM) Considering you were using ERA to rank relief pitchers of all things and never even mentioned salary when telling us Addison Reed was really a middle reliever, I am shocked now ERA doesn't mean anything. And why are so many people hung up on salary? Are you an heir to JR? You have often stuck up for Adam Dunn. He probably has about as bad of a salary/WAR as any player who has actually played the last 4 season. No one said ERA is meaningless. But it would be a pretty dumb numerator if you were including salary, wouldn't it? QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 06:08 PM) You're operating on a bad premise that money is unlimited. The fact that 4/50 will not, by itself, cripple the Sox financially does not change the fact that it still represents $50m of a finite total payroll that will not go somewhere else.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:28 AM) If we really want to make it fair, it's the salary/WAR of Jimenez vs the salary/WAR of Noesi + the salary/WAR of the second round draft pick. Or if we REALLY want to make it fair, it's the salary/WAR of Jimenez over the lifetime of the deal vs. salary/WAR of the sum of the 5th starters the Sox use + the salary/WAR of the second round pick this year, with an asterisk for concessions made for the value attained if the second round pick is traded or other picks are signed overslot as a result of the bonus pool money attributed to the second round pick. Our collective point, of course, being that this argument is so much more complex than Hector Noesi's ERA in 2014, and everyone knows it.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:04 AM) What about Ozzie Guillen? Take that out too and you've removed the entirety of Soxtalk

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 30, 2014 -> 05:11 AM) Will the real Gordon Beckham show his face? 2014 OPS 1.177 vs. lefties (30+ AB's), .655 vs. righties 2011-2013 .592 vs. lefties, .683 vs. righties 2009 .890 vs. lefties, .755 vs. righties The numbers against righties have stayed within a 100 point range/spectrum for most of his career, but the real dramatic fluctuations have always been against left-handers. Is it a troubling sign for him going forward his numbers against righties look so average/pedestrian? That's a huge differential between the two sets of numbers. Very interesting observation.

QUOTE (greg775 @ May 29, 2014 -> 08:56 PM) Is anybody getting banned? I think when I last got suspended it was for something I did in SLAM, which I thought was a free for all. I'm pretty sure I got the boot for a thread that got my emotions boiling. I cannot imagine what it would be like if you lost it.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 06:15 PM) Okay I get what you're saying now. My whole thing on Hoffman though is just under the assumption that this was the guy the Sox wanted. No matter what happens I would like to see upside & I would like to see them get the guy they want. Ex, if they wanted Hoffman #1 but Aiken & Rodon close #2, Kolek distant #3 or something, then take Aiken or Rodon if they're there, but if not, go get Hoffman, don't be a-scared, buy a dog if you're a-scared. Yeah, if they think he's the consensus top guy, that's when you consider it. If they think someone else is even close though, I say you gotta get the healthy guy.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 07:02 PM) Okay but is this really a fair thing to assume? What % of pitchers have to get a second TJ within a few years of the first? There definitely aren't enough cases to actually make an argument. Cory Luebke and Daniel Hudson jump to mind. But either way, even it's not likely it'll happen within a few years, it's still true that you essentially lost a safety net. Like if Chris Sale had TJ, we'd all be really bummed, but not THAT bummed because we're pretty sure that we'll just lose a year and it'll be alright. But if we get Hoffman, say he pitches 2 years in the minors, then we have six years of him. For an eight year period, if TJ hits him, he's essentially done. This risk is maybe worth it if he's the consensus top talent in the draft, but he's not. Some didn't even think he was the top tier before his injury.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 05:51 PM) Josh Johnson had an excellent career overall in his Marlins days. I'll take that exact same thing from whoever the Sox get a #3. We should be looking for a guy who can get through the minors and put in 6 years, not hope on a 15-year career and so on. As far as Hudson, no TJ before the draft. Mechanics didn't look all that great to the Sox, that's the rumor anyway. 2 TJ surgeries after being traded to AZ. Not sure how any of this applies to Hoffman. From what I gather, the act of pitching alone, regardless of mechanics, will lead to TJ in a large number of cases. Recovery should go well. If the Sox liked Hoffman's mechanics before then I'm not sure how you would look at him as a candidate for a second TJ immediately thereafter. The point is that if you have one TJ, you've just moved up your timeline for a second. And almost (if not literally) no one has come back effective form the 2nd TJ.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 29, 2014 -> 04:53 PM) You're operating on a bad premise that 4/$50M is a contract the Sox couldn't work around if it went bad. You're operating on a bad premise that money is unlimited. The fact that 4/50 will not, by itself, cripple the Sox financially does not change the fact that it still represents $50m of a finite total payroll that will not go somewhere else.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 29, 2014 -> 03:32 PM) You can't argue with 3 WAR. 3 WAR is a fact. As far as Paulino goes, he represents an opportunity lost. With the turnaround of this offense, it's too damn bad they didn't help the rotation out more. Oh you're using the 3 WAR as a defense for him -- I thought you were being sarcastic. I actually think you have a legitimate argument here, and have stated so. The problem isn't Paulino, it's that if you're going to take that kind of gamble, you need more depth so you aren't screwed when it goes wrong. They should have, at least, made it a priority to sign three Paulino-like guys. What I don't agree with is Ubaldo being the answer. It looked risky and costly at the time, and now it looks even worse with his early season performance.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:15 PM) You get careers that look like this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml Or this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda01.shtml

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 29, 2014 -> 03:25 PM) Paulino can't get anyone out at Charlotte. So what?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 29, 2014 -> 03:22 PM) You can't argue with 3 WAR. Sure you can. But you haven't. How about a 4.98 ERA. Yeah, that would look real sexy in our rotation right about now.