Eminor3rd

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 27, 2014 -> 09:07 AM) How much do you want to bet they don't/won't allow him to get over 50 errors at SS? When was the last time the White Sox did that with any prospect in the minors? Viciedo was equally raw and how much time did it take before they moved him off 3B? As long as they believe the defensive side won't have a negative impact on his offensive game...they'll be patient, but only to a point. Anderson's biggest potential value comes with his speed and bat...on the offensive side, just like Hawkins. Do you really believe any of this, caulfield?

Hawk's been saying that first round HS pitchers are bad picks for years. His stance is completely unrelated to this year's situation.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 27, 2014 -> 01:05 PM) And everything other than track record you mentioned is based on some form of track record. Which is abstractly not even CLOSE to the same thing, or even related to the argument Marty made then that you are now resurrecting.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 27, 2014 -> 11:32 AM) Projections are mostly based on track record, and similar players' track record. Track record + aging curve + any recent changes to mechanics + any recent changes to physiology + any potential future changes to mechanics + any potential future changes to physiology + current and future health risks. EDIT: If it was only or even mostly track record, prospects wouldn't be worth more in the trade market than post-prime veterans with long track records. The position Marty took that you're now resurrecting, simply for the sake of arguing with me, is an indefensible position.

QUOTE (oldsox @ May 27, 2014 -> 10:33 AM) I never saw any evidence that the Sox were shopping Reed prior to the Davidson deal. Fact is, AZ played Davidson extensively the end of 2013 season; from what I heard, they cooled on him, shopped him, and the rest is history. Certainly a possibility.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 27, 2014 -> 10:24 AM) You mentioned track record. Didn't you tell Marty something along the lines of track record meaning nothing? And Stanton's contact problems were at 18 and 19 and his other numbers were spectacular. There is no comparison to Stanton and any White Sox strike out machine in the minors. No, and I elaborated what I did and didn't mean, very clearly, at least three times in that thread. If you read that, you're being dense on purpose (business as usual), and if you didn't read it, you shouldn't put words in others mouths. For the final time (although no one seems to be confused about this except you at this point), I said track record should be a component of what is used to predict future performance, but that the important factor in a GMs decision to value or acquire a player is, and should be, exclusively what that player will do going forward.

Giancarlo Stanton had major contact issues all the way up, too. Sometimes they get it, sometimes they don't. Given their recent track record, I think it's reasonable to question the White Sox' ability to either develop these guys or correctly identify the ones that have a real shot. But, on the other hand, it's also probable that Davidson was the biggest package of talent that could be had for a reliever like Reed. I think it's a legitimate debate: should the White Sox shy away from poor contact prospects even when they represent the best available talent? Is the answer to just avoid them, or to continue to get better at developing them?

Today, I'm still more confident that De Aza will hit than Danks when they're at the plate.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ May 26, 2014 -> 05:10 PM) Dick Allen ... they will always find some reason to hate on Beckham. They never let the facts get in the way of that hate. Personally I hope our DP combo of Alexei and Gordon stay together for several more years This is the reason to hate Gordon Beckham: 2,604 PA of .251/.314/.382 (87 wRC+), good for about 1.3 fWAR per 150 games to give him credit for his defense. That is a below average player and that includes this season. Traditional statistics and sabermetrics agree -- bad batting average, bad on-base percentage, bad slugging percentage, and bad wRC+. I'm glad he's playing better this year. I hope he continues, because I like when White Sox players play well. I hope it's some kind of late-start career revival and that he can really sustain a 104 wRC+ making him a slightly above average hitter. That would be great. But let's stop pretending it's a mystery that people are tired of watching him play badly. He had a good rookie season and then four consecutive seasons of crap. I'm not sure what math makes that guy into a player that everyone should love playing for their favorite team.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 26, 2014 -> 03:19 PM) 17,075 on Memorial Day? REALLY? Were all of those fans Yankees' fans the last two days? DJ marketing the Chris Sale start hard, lol. Saying how he would buy a ticket if he wasn't already coming to the game. Great defensive play by Conor, two nice swings by Viciedo and Gillaspie to tack on some more runs hopefully. Let's make EVERY thread about attendance!

Yeah, I'm sure they were searching for an angle to make Cubs fans happy. There's no question who the better player is.

The draft has changed drastically since the Sox were having battles with Boras before. The draftees have so, SO much less leverage than they used to have.

I think, realistically, DH would be Abreu/Konerko most nights.

QUOTE (beautox @ May 23, 2014 -> 03:38 PM) Doubt it, Sox will likely have 4 possibly 5 top 100 prospects. For this conversation lets say we draft Rodon or Aiken, they'll most likely slot around 14-18, Hawkins provided he doesn't fall off a cliff again should rank in a similar spot as last time (#68), Davidson provided he keeps up his hot streak should remain where he was last year around possibly a little further down #68, Micah should slot around 75-80ish based off where 2B prospects tend to land and the fact only Mookie and Odor are actually ahead of him and performing right now and Tim Anderson even with his rawness should be around 93-100. So thats potentially 5 top 100 prospects. Please tell me how I'm crazy. You crazy!

Word is the passed on Rasmus because of his attitude. That they opted instead to essentially give Jackson away for the privilege to stop paying Teahen should tell you how they feel about him. There's no question Rasmus' potential was more valuable on paper.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ May 23, 2014 -> 02:21 PM) Callis thinks Rodon is No. 1 on the Sox Big Board: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-d...p;vkey=news_mlb *gulp* EDIT: referring to passing on Aiken for Nola

Yeah you can't really compare the system to now to years past until after the draft. It's been pillaged by graduates without being restocked.

QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ May 23, 2014 -> 10:19 AM) Aye Cap'N! There it is!

QUOTE (fathom @ May 23, 2014 -> 09:55 AM) Honestly, I'll take 25 starts a year from him for next 5 years and be happy with it. QUOTE (flavum @ May 23, 2014 -> 09:57 AM) Missing Sale 1.5 months a season is a recipe for never making the playoffs. I just now realized that you are two different people.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ May 23, 2014 -> 09:43 AM) Noesi has to win a game sometime and I vote for today! I officially second this motion. ALL IN FAVOR SAY 'AYE'

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 23, 2014 -> 10:21 AM) Imagine the K zone as a box the exact same size you are used to seeing. But instead of it being in a fixed location it is a floating object, and the parameters are set by pitch sequence and location. The hitter just moves his zone up or down, in or out. I guess the main problem with viewing the K zone as fixed is that it assumes 1) the pitcher has full control of it all the time and the hitter has really none, and 2) when the pitch goes outside of it that the pitcher is forcing the hitter to play his game or something. But the truth is that not only can the pitcher beat the hitter both inside and out of the zone, the hitter can also beat the pitcher both inside and out of the zone. And if Michael Young *wants* Mark Buehrle to throw that 86mph fastball 7" off the outside corner so that he can lace it down the line, and if Miguel Cabrera *wants* to yank his hands in and pull that pitch over the LF wall, who is setting up who? You know what would be a really good stat? Adding up the number of hits that occur outside of the K zone on a hitter and subtracting those PAs from batting average, and doing the same with SLG% and RBI total (because hitters will expand to drive in a run, ex didn't Cabrera do this with the Marlins when someone tried to intentionally walk him but left a pitch too close?). Doing that might be one way of comparing the effectiveness of that hitter to others outside of the zone. There are things you could I am sure use zone numbers for but they'd have to be more specific. And again the whole great result that anyone should ever really care about on a macro scale is the quality of PA and whether the pitcher gets the hitter out or whether a hitter gets himself out. In the mind of a hitting coach or a more knowledgeable fan, again on a macro level, a line shot that the fielder robs is just as good as the line shot which goes for a double, because both are indicative of a quality AB. It's just that one result counts and the other doesn't, but as far as I can see the whole point of advanced stats is to try to figure out who is *really* the best, not just who is most fortunate or something. Yeah, that would require insane manpower, but would definitely be fantastic. Hopefully this is some of the stuff we can start to see with the new MLBAM cameras.

QUOTE (Jake @ May 23, 2014 -> 09:01 AM) Something to think about re: college pitcher pitch counts - they throw every 7th day, the majority of the time. We've seen durability from Japanese pitchers who threw a lot of pitches on a similarly long-rested schedule But there's the theory that damage is done when pitchers are "under stress," right? So under that line of thinking, you'd rather someone pitch more frequently and never get tired than having someone pitch into the red zone and then rest a lot.

QUOTE (Jake @ May 23, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) Earlier this year, FanGraphs looked at O-Swing% and compared it to the same basic thing, excepted they added an arbitrary amount to the strike zone size to see if there were a bunch of hitters who only swung at near-miss pitches. Except for just a handful of guys, you basically saw that if guys swing at some non-strikes, they swing at all of them. Yeah, I remember that. That was a Jeff Sullivan article, right? I'll have to try to find that again.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 23, 2014 -> 09:39 AM) Ok as simply as possible. You're talking about measuring an event (outside zone swings) and recording it as generally a bad thing/undesirable result, completely ignoring that it in some situations it may be a very, very good thing and doing so selectively may be an indication of excellent strikezone judgement and plate discipline in a hitter. I think that's dumb. I think the key point is if a pitch is outside the zone, are you going to be able to leverage that take into a better pitch to hit later? Most of the time, I think the answer is yes. So it's not that Alexei can't hit stuff out of the zone, but he's going to hit better on pitches in the zone, and if he takes a pitch that is ultimately a ball instead of "expanding his zone," he's taken a step to forcing a better pitch to hit later in the at bat. The exceptions exist though. Like Abreu: probably won't see a much better pitch than a belt high fastball 2 inches outside, so if that's the best he's going to get, and it's close enough to his hot zone that he can do some real damage to it (not simply make contact), there is a case the expanding the zone is the best thing to do.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 23, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) I see that but with all the machines tracking things now I think some kind of hot zone type stat would work better to account for context. IE Michael Young IIRC used to always murder Buehrle in Texas on the outside fastball, he'd reach out and hit the ball well outside of the zone and lace it down the line just because Mark wasn't getting in on him enough. The pitch sequence and batter strengths in general combine with the umpires judgement on the day (tight, wide, idiotic, etc.) to create an intelligent strikezone that doesn't necessarily match the zone on paper. IE that low and away change in the zone, just let it go by if you're not ready for it because 1 K isn't as bad as a DP. But that high fastball when you're geared up for it in a hitter's count with men on? Alexei can hit that thing out just fine, has done so many times over. I do worry about this stuff a little bit, especially with guys like Abreu, whose wheelhouse appears to be close to the outside edge of the academic zone. When I see a 40% O-Swing, how much of that is him biting on a low and in slider and how much is him just drilling a ball just off the black which is really like 2 inches away from his ideal location? Abreu is obviously an exception to the general population, but still. I like measurements that don't have exceptions, lol.