Eminor3rd

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 26, 2013 -> 09:06 AM) The higher priced the free agent market gets, the better off that Dunn's contract looks to a team looking for power in the middle of their line up. At the beginning of winter, the deal was untradable. Now I am not so convinced. I don't think this is necessarily true. Every time a high-priced FA gets signed, the one team that was willing to pay that high price is suddenly out of the market. I think there's probably some fallacy somewhere underneath the idea of "setting the market" in baseball free agency, but I don't have it all thought out. I think it's more likely that there's an effect for being the "best remaining option," but I don't know if it manifests itself in increased value, just increased interest.

Also, the Red Sox made a bunch of relatively short-term, late-offseason signings because they wanted to have a shot at being competitive without mortgaging the future. The fact that everything clicked for them is not an endorsement for mortgaging the future. If you want the White Sox to follow the Red Sox blueprint, you need Hahn to be as patient as possible. The types of offers that get players to sign this early are the offers that are on the top end of the player's value -- i.e.e the ones that require teams to mortgage the future to some degree.

QUOTE (SI1020 @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 01:28 PM) If you're into the newer stats Biggio's JAWS is 53.3, with the average HOFer 2B man at 57.0. His JAWS beats 10 other HOF 2B men including Nellie Fox. I completely agree with your assessment of the hitter Frank Thomas. Nellie Fox was pretty overrated though, wasn't he? I mean, just looking at his numbers, he was more of a "good player for a long time" than a HOFer. A few good seasons with the stick but overall a below league average hitter for his career that added a ton of defensive value. EDIT: Luis Aparicio looks like the same thing but more extreme -- even better defender and a much worse hitter. Another very valuable player but not a HOFer IMO. Now, Luke Appling, on the other hand, looks like a stud. Elite D on top of a career 115 wRC+ out of a SS. Damn.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 12:56 PM) I think people look at Prince and make up their mind about what he is, but from watching him, he is much more athletic than people give him credit for and every year, every team he has been on comments on how he shows up to camp in shape and ready to go. Sure, he is much more athletic than he seems like he should be. But he's still the worst defensive first baseman in the Majors and one of the worst runners. So his athleticism isn't amounting to much

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 12:41 PM) You are right, Kinsler is $9M cheaper than Fielder over the life of his deal as he is scheduled to make $57M through 2017 and Fielder will be paid $66M thanks to the offset of money from the Tigers. What it will cost the Tigers to replace Kinsler for the rest of Fielders contract, anyone could guess. Haha that's ONE way to look at it, I guess. You should be an agent The thing is though, that the latter years of the contract are the ones that are crappy. You are essentially "loaned" surplus value up front that you pay back at a fixed rate, even when it's an overpay. So the Tigers got a disproportionately high amount of the value of Fielder compared to what they ultimately paid. Whatever the Tigers have to do to replace Kinsler will presumably NOT be taking on the dregs portion of a player's performance as it would be with Fielder. So even if they spend the same amount of money, by spending it on the front half of a contract twice, they come out ahead.

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 10:44 AM) That offense in Detroit has been progressively getting weaker. Steamer projections for current Tigers: Austin Jackson - 112 wRC+ Torii Hunter - 106 wRC+ Cabrera - 170 wRC+ VMart - 117 wRC+ Avila - 108 wRC+ (up from 92 last year -- I'm dubious) Kinsler - 110 wRC+, best since 2011 Iglesias - 76 wRC+ Castellanos? - 94 wRC+ Andy Dirks? - 100 wRC+ (up from 89 last season) It's good, but there are a lot of scenarios you can imagine where they are quite a bit worse than projections. Taking Fielder out of that lineup really hurts them for this season as he was the only other truly scary bat -- his BAD season was a 125 wRC+, his career is 140. Now you're looking at a lineup full of guys who are a slight regression away from being at or below league average hitters. You're also relying on Torii Hunter not aging, Avila rallying back, Kinsler stepping up, and unknowns like Castellanos putting up numbers (they might have someone else in mind, I'm not sure) and Andy Dirks being a good player. There are going to be some real holes in that batting order in all likelihood. Take Miggy out of the middle with injury or something and it is nothing remarkable. That pitching will really have to stay good. Having lots of league average hitters is no sin and is really the hallmark of a great offense - but a guy like Iglesias is likely to be a horrible hitter, Castellanos could be that bad, Dirks might be that bad if he has to play every day, Avila might be that bad already, etc. Defense is improving massively as the offense bleeds

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 11:04 AM) Thomas fits their "standards" very well though. I think that is why he is a slam dunk this year. So did Biggio

QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 10:38 AM) Not in my opinion. Only teams I could see a trade with would be the Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals. The Sox would absolutely "get thinking" on anything including Profar and additional prospects.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 10:31 AM) Actually, with the money Detroit is sending, Kinsler will cost more over the next three years. He has not been good away from Arlington, and Detroit has a ballpark that will not play to his strengths. Its not a bad trade for Detroit, but it is a better trade for Texas given that Fielder is built to play in that park. How does Kinsler cost more? He has $62m left on his contract and the Tigers sent $30m. Fielder has $168m left.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 10:28 AM) Yes. Haha yeah, they are one of the few teams who could trade for practically any one payer right now. Some exceptions of course.

I'm sorry guys, I'm not seeing how this is a bad trade for Detroit. Prince is a better hitter but he cost twice as much, is a liability on the basepaths, and was literally the worst defensive first baseman in baseball last year. All of those things are EXTRA important for a team with so many DHs that it forced Miggy to third base (blocking the organization's top prospect) and is so financially hampered that it was trying to trade the reigning AL Cy Young despite clearly being in win-now mode. They got nearly as much (and arguably more) value back in defense and baserunning as they gave up in offense and solved several HUGE problems for their roster. Plus, they are still a great hitting team with a bunch of players who you don't want up with extra baserunners. No way-- this is a huge win for the Tigers.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 10:02 AM) The speculation is that they are open to moving Profar or Andrus and are considering a run at Cano. Yeah, I;ve heard that, but I sort of doubt it. They JUST took on like $76m for Prince Fielder and have always been linked to Price. I can see them using the Cano money to extend Price and finding a shorter term solution at 2B to bridge to Odor.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 01:02 AM) even after Rangers trading Kinsler?? Seems odd that they would trade him but would love to have him I think it makes sense to move him -- Profar is a SS and their top prospect is a 2B named Rougned Odor. Andrus has a big contract and has been worse the past couple years.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 08:37 AM) Oh without question Joe Crede Ummmm hello? Tadahito Iguchi?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 04:00 PM) Nobody wants David Freese. I don't think it's far fetched to say that most people here prefer Gillaspie to Freese. Given the state of the Sox, I'd much, much rather have Conor Gillaspie than David Freese. Freese is still a better baseball player than Conor Gillaspie. The numbers have all been laid out for you. It really couldn't be any clearer. Yes, this exactly.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 03:34 PM) I don't give 2 s***s about all those stupid acronym stats. I like Gillaspie more then Freese. Ok, that's fine -- just so we all know it has nothing to do with who the better player is, lol. Gillaspie may have more upside, but right now, he is absolutely NOT a better player. And Gillaspie is NOT a better homerun hitter. You can cherry pick Freese's worst, injury-plagued year if you want, but you're ignoring the rest of his entire career, including his last healthy year, just one season ago, when he hit 20 homers. Freese has more power than Gillaspie. There is no information at all to suggest otherwise, even scouting reports on Gillaspie have ALWAYS questioned his power.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 03:29 PM) Someone had to replace Bruce Chen Indeed -- it just seems like they spent a ton of money to do it. Seems like they should use dollars to replace Ervin Santana first, then replace Chen with what's left. I don't think Moore is good with handling their payroll budget.

The catcher makes too much sense. Add to the spring training battle and if Flowers/Phegley/new acquisition beats him out, you just send him back. If not, you move the goalposts a bit at least by giving a different young guy a shot.

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 03:16 PM) 4 yrs, 32 million for Vargas to the Royals aaaaand the Royals add another average-ish pitcher at market rate. That's a lot of years for very little discount. To me this is move that reeks of "consolation prize" which is very weird considering it's November 21st

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 03:09 PM) The one thing to really be concerned about was how bad he got defensively as the year went on. By the end of the season, he was awful. Yeah, and what makes that even scarier is the fact that he came into the season with a rep as a bad defender. We were all pleasantly surprised with his spring and first month or so, thinking he turned a corner -- but that seems like it might have been small sample noise now that we've seen what we can assume to be a regression given his rep.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) There's something bout that Conor Gillaspie. Not predicting a breakout (due to age) but he doesnt have to make too big a leap to be worthwhile. I like him for some reason, too. I'm not saying we should get Freese, just that it's silly to say that Conor is better. Because as of right now, he just absolutely isn't. But he is younger and cheaper and -- most importantly -- already on our team, so I agree he's the better fit for us right now.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 02:30 PM) Freese 30 years old 9 HR 60 RBI .262 AVG .340 OBP 462 ABs Right Handed Gillaspie- 26 years old 13 HR 40 RBI .245 AVG .305 OBP 452 PA Left Handed And it was Gillaspie's first full year and with a horrible cast around him that never got on base. Freese was on a team that made the World Series and had a bunch of guys in front of him that got on base. I will take Gillaspie every day Career WAR Gillaspie: 0.4 Freese: 8.2 WAR per 500PA Gillaspie: 0.4 Freese: 2.3 2014 Steamer projected WAR Gillaspie: 1.3 Freese: 2.3 Career UZR/150 Gillaspie: -5.2 Freese: -4.8 Career wRC+ Gillaspie: 83 Freese: 119 2014 Steamer projected wRC+ Gillaspie: 95 Freese: 118 Hmmm. Wait, I found something! 2013 Ultimate baserunning Gillaspie: -0.1 Freese: -1.9 Help me, I'm struggling here. Is the argument that Gillaspie is better something like "Freese's injury-plagued down year in 2013 makes me think that his entire career precedent is lost now that he is age 30"? Because where I'm coming from, it looks like they are similar defenders, similar baserunners, but Freese is a SUBSTANTIALLY better hitter -- like several standard deviations better.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 01:39 PM) No no no no no no no. Just no. Conor is better thrn Freese. Just no. Being from St. Louis I can't stand Freese. So overrated because of a few games in the playoffs a couple years ago. I don't wamt him anywhere near this team. Freese is indeed overrated, and I don't want him either. However, he is absolutely better than Connor Gillaspie lol

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 09:52 AM) Kemp to the Brew Crew Braun to the White Sox Danks & Lindstrom to the Dodgers Get it done Rick!!! lol

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 12:10 AM) Bill James has been calling lineup protection a myth for years. Baseball PLAYERS, however, insist it's true and important. It seems like it should be, but when you look at how guys perform in both situations, there's little to no difference. It's just how it is, people have been TRYING to find an effect for a very long time.