Eminor3rd

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 04:36 PM) I assume you are baseing it on his injuries? That's a tough stance. I should have added that I can certainly understand the injury concern if that is your position. (not trying to put words in your mouth) It's just that injuries are part of the game and CQ sustained them with hard nosed and all out play. But see this is where sabermetric numbers help. It's great that he's kept his head high and tried hard, but respectable or not, he hits no homers when he's on the DL. This is where WAR is great -- you get to measure his contributions, injuries included, no guessing. We can project the amount of games he's likely to play, and measure his value in a counting stat. Rate stats are not accurate ways to measure the contribution of a guy who is going to miss 30 - 50 games.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 04:09 PM) OK. That is a valid way to look at it. But, I am not saying he chose a worse return. I am not sure, nor can anyone say I guess, what he might have got in Feb or March, or if he shouldn't have looked at signing CQ like he did John Danks. Those were options too. Maybe they know more about these prospects then meets the eye. It must have been a salary dump #1 and return #2? Yes, salary probably had to come first. Here's how I see it: JR tells KW that he has X amount of dollars for the payroll budget. Maybe KW argues with him a bit, but they eventually setle on a number. This year, that number is undoubtedly significantly lower than last year. So, somehow, KW has to make sure he gets the payroll below that number. That affects how he views his assets. So it wasn't like, "I want to trade CQ becasue I don't like him or I don't think he's good," but instead, "I have to cut payroll somehow. Where does the team have depth? Which guys make a lot of money? Looks like CQ is gonna make $7-8m and I have a pre-arb guy that I can replace him with. Okay, I guess I need to try to move CQ for the best I can." And at that point it's just weighing cost/benefit. So yes, it's KW's fault that the team sucks and thus must cut payroll, but it's not KW's fault that he couldn't get more out of CQ in this instance, because if he didn't have to cut payroll, there's no way he wouldn't choose a better prospect and pick up half of CQ's contract.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 04:00 PM) It's such a huge risk. As good as this guy is supposed to be, the Cuban Leagues aren't close to Major League Baseball. What happens if he is too raw in Spring Training? We gonna have a $10-million man in AAA. I don't mind the $10m AAV so much as the 5-7 years of it. I mean, how easily could this guy be a mirror image of Alex Rios? I bet Rios could rake the Cuban league, too. It would be one thing if the guy was a prospect, but the fact that he's so close to his prime just magnifies the risk. I wonder if this Soler kid might not be a better target. He's younger but less accomplished, right?

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:46 PM) Glad to hear you know what my problem is I don't believe I ever suggested what Dunn and Rios were making is what CQ should make. I also believe CQ has produced at a higher level than Rios and Dunn did especially in 2011. Yes, CQ is oft injured, but he was our second best RBI man last year. All I see is how we have all these sabermetrics to go by and that means I am supposed to accept our players are worthless and should be traded for low level minor leaguers. Ok, if you say so... CQ fetched a low return because SD ate the whole contract, that's how it works. KW has to cut payroll, so he has no choice but to get total salary relief. It's stupid to assume that KW chose a crappy return over a better return. He's been shopping him for months, I have no doubt that this was about all that could be had if the Sox wanted to not pay ANY of the contract. This has NOTHING to do with sabermetrics.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:50 PM) Viciedo was 19 when we signed him, this guy is 25. Right, so if the numbers were similar, you'd expect Cespedes to be garbage because he'd be fully developed. I guess I hope they are way better, of course. I wonder if some metrics/skills tend to translate from Cuba to the MLB more, such as walk rate or K rate or something.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:40 PM) Gonna a monster market for him. I know, it's just such a scary proposition. Does anyone know how his number compare to Viciedo's?

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:23 PM) 5/55. KW is all about Cespedes these days. Ugh, so risky

Logan Morrison @LoMoMarlins Following I really hope Ozzies on-field instructions r easier 2 understand than his tweets. I literally have no idea what this dude is talking about..

Everything I've heard says that Cespedes is going to need some time in AA/AAA, even if it's only half a season. The situation works out perfectly then, because we'll have time to see what De Aza and Rios are going to do for a few months, then decide who sits when/if Cespedes is ready.

118 games is NOT a full season, and 130 games is barely a full season

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 11:18 AM) I think it will be: De Aza CF Ramirez SS Konerko 1B Dunn DH Rios LF Viciedo RF Pierzynski C Morel 3B Beckham 2B L-R-R-L-R-R-L-R-R That's best case scenario with Dunn and Rios doing ok. By the way, when the Sox brought Beckham up in 2009, do you think they probably had him penciled in as a 3-hole hitter by 2012? Kinda sad he's a 9-hole hitter still. If you buy into Tango's lineup research from The Book, Dunn makes more sense in the three hole and Konerko in the four hole. High K, high HR, high walk guys are perfect in the three hole because they see more double play situations than anyone else. Also, according to linear weights, doubles and homers tend to be more valuable in the fourth hole, so your better hitter should go there. Also, that gets us LRLR for the first four hitters, which is nice too. Edit: also, stolen bases play best in the 6th spot because of the tendency for 7/8/9 hitters to be singles guys. So I like Rios in the 6 hole as opposed to Viciedo.

Possible lineup if you think Dunn bounces back: 1 De Aza 2 Ramirez 3 Dunn 4 Konerko 5 Viciedo 6 Rios 7 Pierzynski 8 Beckham 9 Morel I'm not sure which OF I like best: LF De Aza CF Rios RF Viciedo LF Viciedo CF De Aza RF Rios LF Rios CF De Aza RF Viciedo Ironically, based on skillset alone (De Aza being the rangeist, Viciedo having the best arm, and Rios having an 'okay' version of each), the third option is probably the best defensive OF of the bunch, and yet is probably the least likely to occur. The only way it doesn't make sense is if you think Rios' lack of experience in LF will make him significantly worse there.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 10:49 AM) I just remember thinking, everything that's been written about both Danks and Quentin...that Carlos was going to end up closer to $7 million, and Danks, $7.75-8.50 million....something like that, just ballpark figures. They already gave Danks the "expected" $8 million for 2012, we'll see where Quentin ends up. Doubt SD is really serious about signing him to a long-term extension, but who knows. Yeah, maybe they just think they can dump him at the deadline for more than they gave up. If he's on one of his streaks in July, I guess they might be right.

Is it me, or does Viciedo seem exactly like Yonder Alonso?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 10:25 AM) Except he just talked about spending money, which he never does. Yeah, he also said we're rebuilding AND contedning at the same time. He's just syaing words the appease the AM radio crowd. Come to think of it, that sort of is what he appears to be trying to do, however misguided and impossible it may be. Where did he say he's about to spend? Is there a link?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 08:10 AM) Is he really going to be making $8 million? I thought most were projecting him between $6.25-7.75 million, probably somewhere in the middle of that range. You could be right, I saw the $8m figure in some article, but you would probably know better than some generalist writer.

This guy is tempting. But I don't know that KW dropped the payroll to $97m just to jack it back up to $108m or whatever.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 2, 2012 -> 09:55 PM) Who's "defending" KW? If you choose to ignore things like salary, market value, skill-set, other teams' needs, etc, that's on you. If anything, Padres fans are the ones that should be pissed off. Exactly. Wtf do the Padres need CQ for? He'll negate any offensive value by playing league-worst defense in one of the biggest outfields in the nation. He'll hit fewer homeruns (maybe 20, unless he plays a full season for the first time in his career) and they'll have to pay him $8m to do all of it for a third or fourth place team. And they gave up two pitching prospects for that right. I'm no CQ hater, but the Padres are probably one of the worst fits in the MLB for him.

Man, we gotta trade Quentin, no matter which 'direction' Krazy Kenny decides upon.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 11:57 AM) You're right...they are not in the level of nester molina and phil humber in terms of powerhouse. I never made that claim.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 30, 2011 -> 11:19 AM) Every year we assume every other teams players are a fluke and that our players will play to their averages. I generally assume players that outperform their peripherals will regress negatively and players that underperform their peripherals will regress positively. EDIT: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P

Yeah, I'll believe that Detroit has a powerhouse rotation when Fister continues to pitch better than ever before for a whole season, and Scherzer/Porcello actually improve toward their ceilings.

I like the positive vibes, but you guys are WAY overrating these players.

I'm just praying this man has a plan. If we go into the season with the team we have now, so help me god...

Man, I have NO idea.