Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:22 AM) I have always found it useful to look at each month's production, in order to attempt to better assess a player's performance. For example; a hitter might be very productive, with the exception of one very bad month. Whether due to injury, extremely tough pitching, bad luck, or just a plain old slump, that month could significantly affect his overall season stats. Looking at Moustakas' month by month production, over the last 3 seasons, will reveal a pretty consistently good hitter, with power and a relatively low strike out rate. Take 2015, for example; Here are his month, by month AVG's: .356 .282 .299 .188 .281 .291. If you throw out that .188 in July, he was a pretty solid hitter. 2016 was a lost season, due to injury. However, he was fine, for the brief time that he played. So, looking at all of 2015 and last year, and taking out his worst month, in each of those years, his stats are generally pretty good. They aren't overwhelming, but they are good enough to represent a left handed presence, sandwiched somewhere between the heavily weighted right handed, middle of the order hitters. I hope that clarifies my point. Every player looks good if you remove all the times when they are bad.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:20 PM) They aren’t “scrambling to sign” him. The whole premise of this debate is that he is available at a discounted rate. And by discounted, I mean 5 years/$60MM. In that case, yes, I would consider signing him now at age 29 even if he doesn’t perfectly align with the Sox forecasted competitive window. I just don't see any reason for him to sign for that low AND that long. If it's that much of a steal, I could be comfortable with it, there's just no reason for him to do it. If he ends up having to settle for $12mm/yr, it'll be for 1-2 years. But yeah man, I don't even know if we're really on other sides of this fence if that's the price you have in mind.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:58 PM) That's where I am getting it. Steamer actually has him at 2.6 not that it matters much, but he played in 27 games in 2016 and put up a 0.7. So if he played a full season, he was well on his way to well above average then. Was well above average in 2015, and after missing a lot time he came back last year and was above average. In fact, only 9 MLB 3B had a higher wRC+ than he did. I believe defensively he can bounce back. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't great. Many think another year away from his surgery will improve his defense, which will only make his WAR rise. If you have reason to believe his defense will improve, it could certainly change the math substantially. In terms of the numbers, his defensive decline looks really natural, so without any outside info (like an injury) it looks like normal decline. But if it's true that he was working back from a non-chronic injury and he will be an above average defender going forward, it's much easier to argue for acquiring him.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:16 PM) And yet many want to sign guys like Donaldson (who is 3 years older and not a FA until next offseason) or Harper/Machado to a 10 year contract? I'm not advocating for signing Donaldson, but all of the players you mentioned are WAY better than Moustakas, so they have much more room to get worse before they get to be a problem.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:49 PM) Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension. Correct, but they ARE accurate most of the time. They are the most likely thing to occur. Even if you acknowledge the possibility that he could buck the trend (I do), it can't be EXPECTED.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:45 PM) That is still top 3 on average per team. Ok, now apply aging curves for two to four seasons in the future.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:00 PM) Heres' where I got it. 107 is Yolmer Sanchez. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d Ok, yeah, you filtered by BA Title Qualification. That's fine, but it misses a crapton of rookies and players that spent decent time on the DL, both good and bad. I think it's more accurate to go with a lower threshold.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:45 PM) What’s your definition of middle of the order then? #3-#5? Either way whether he is #5 or #6 it’s semantics and I don’t know why everyone keeps labeling him mediocre? Apparently the Royals won a title with a bunch of mediocre players then. Not many here too high on Hosmer or Moose and both guys were regulars in the “middle of the order” during their 2015 championship season just over two years ago. Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive. Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order? Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally? Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:44 PM) Where did you get this number? https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ Scroll down/Ctrl+F to "Context"

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:22 PM) He isn't league average. You keep saying that, but I don't know why. He put up 2.2 fWAR last year and both Steamer and ZiPS project him at 2.5. A league average player is "roughly 2 WAR." Ok, maybe he's slightly above? He's within rounding error of a league average player.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:47 PM) Your initial post that I quoted said something to effect that the white sox are likely not a playoff caliber team in two years (2020) if Moose is hitting in the middle of the lineup. How do you figure? And how do you define “middle of the lineup”? To me, that’s #3 thru #6. How many 2017 playoff teams regularly batted a guy #6 in their lineup last year with an OPS better than .835? Even if you are expecting a drop in performance two years from now, are you expecting it to be so dramatic that his OPS falls below say .750? Even after moving into a more hitter friendly park? For reference, the Yankees scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they were batting Greg Bird in the #6 spot for most of their playoff games. That’s a team that made it to the ALCS and was one game away from knocking off the eventual champ. The guys NL playoff teams were rolling out in that spot in the order were even worse... No, I don't consider #6 to be "middle of the order." But an argument where a team can be so good offensively that they still made the playoffs despite a mediocre performance by a guy in the #6 hole is not an argument that we should sign a mediocre guy for the #6 hole.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 11:20 AM) My point is, first you used incorrect numbers. Second, he's probably entering an area where he is a good buy. Most projections have him between 2.5 and 3.0 WAR for 2018. He was 10th for 3B in wRC+, a stat you find important. The top 9 aren't available for a second round draft pick. If the White Sox are being realistic about signing Manny Machado, and I would love if they did, it means they have a ton of money to spend. Moustakas at a discount, shouldn't hurt adding more players. They are going to need several when it is all said and done. Moustakas can play 1B and DH as well, and could be a replacement down the road for a guy like Abreu. Someone whose WAR and wRC+ trended down until his age 30 season. If signing Manny Machado means the White Sox will not be able to add other big pieces, they are screwed anyway. First, as I stated in the first post where I mentioned the ranking, I used a table with a minimum PA number of 50 to find the 107 rank. This is important so that you don't ignore mid-season call-ups. Which did you use? Second, everyone is entirely ignoring context with this signing. If you are making a signing now for the sake of the future, you need to consider the player's performance in the FUTURE. As has been pointed out several times by several posters in this thread, Moustakas is currently 29 years old and has already shown signs of decline. There is no reason to believe his defense will get better with age. His primary contribution (power), is more abundant in today's run environment than ever before.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 11:13 AM) No, but offensively, last season he was. So what's your point?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:42 AM) That would be a 55 team WAR if multiplied by 25. If that is what 25 average players gets you, let's get 25 average players. According to fangraphs, his wRC+ was 62nd. That's top 2 or 3 on a team. Yolmer Sanchez was 107. So by your post, Yolmer isn't the answer.. Manny Machado wasn't as good offensively as Moustakas last year. I am sure most of us will be doing cartwheels if the Sox give him $300 million plus in the next 10 months. Are you suggesting that Moustakas is better than Machado?

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:06 AM) He’s 29 years old coming off a season in which he posted a 2.2 fWAR entirely driven by his offensive production. To say the Sox are unlikely to be a playoff caliber team with a guy like him batting in the middle of their lineup makes no sense imo. 2.2 fWAR is an average player. He's coming off a year where his wRC+, the best statistic for measuring total offensive production (which is league, park, and era-adjusted) was 107th best in the MLB. Last year, in his age 29 season, he wasn't even a top 100 hitter. Now we're talking about needing him to be in the middle of our order in his age 31-33 seasons.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 06:55 PM) I love when players react to trades. In Brent Honeywell, we're going to get a chance to see if a franchise can make a player hate his own team enough to ultimately affect his performance.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 07:24 PM) Where did Machado rank? I didn't check.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 07:13 PM) The Royals won a World Series with Moose in he middle of their lineup Yes, they did, in 2015. When Moustakas was 27 years old and put up a nearly 4-win season -- which is something he hasn't even sniffed since. In 2020, he'll be 32 years old. The Cardinals won a World Series in 2011 with Albert Pujols in the middle of their lineup. That doesn't mean that should be the Angels' plan now.

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 07:01 PM) So aside from going back to the Royals...where else could he realistically land? This Yankees trade made things interesting. I think the Royals get him. The Yankees will only want to give him a short deal, and they don't have enough CBT space to make that short deal enticing. The Royals can give him three or four years, call it goodwill to fans, and lose nothing toward their next contender.

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 06:45 PM) If Moustakas would agree to a 5 year/$55 million dollar deal, with an opt out after the 2019 season...do you do it? (I wouldn't, but it makes for an interesting discussion) I mean at that point, I'd consider it simply because the money isn't high enough to stop you from just dumping/replacing him when something better pops up. But if he's going to settle for $11mm per year, there's no WAY it's going to be for five years. If the money is going to get so low that he just gets a really obvious opt out when we need him, why sign him in the first place? Wouldn't you rather have the 2nd round pick then? I don't hate the idea of jumping the gun to sign a guy because the market through you a gift you didn't think you'd get, I just disagree on the valuation of Moustakas. He's a guy used to respectably fill a gap on a contender with a hole that threatens to torpedo the rest of the team. He's a fantastic fit for the Yankees, a team that has developed its prospects into stars, made a couple big trades, and is left with a really good team but a ton of downside at 3B. He'sa fantastic guy to fill in and give them solid production without needing to be spectacular. We can get 2-win players every year when we actually need them and know which position our need is. We don't need to take risks now hoping that a guy bucks aging trends so he can be the 6th best hitter on our next contender.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 06:43 PM) Well, that's an interesting perspective. So, you don't think that a line, like his last year, would be adequate, sandwiched in between say Abreu and Jimenez, who would follow Moncada and Avi? Last year's line adds up to a 114 wRC+, which was good for 107th best in the MLB (min. 50 PA). IMO, we need to aim higher than "outside the top 100" for our competitive-window cleanup hitter. And that's assuming he wouldn't decline any, which is possible, but can't be considered likely. Again, I think it's easy to like the homer total, but we ignore the lack of everything else that he brings to the offensive table. He's just not as good as his reputation suggests. Your point is good, Moustakas just isn't that guy.

QUOTE (zisk @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 06:17 PM) .521 in KC is very impressive IMO. Although 2017 was his best year to date, Moose will probably be a solid player for the next 2-3 seasons. I must admit to wanting Yolmer to play every day next year, and that wouldn't happen if MM is on the team. It was barely in the top 50 last year (min. 50 PA). That's still solid, but it doesn't make up for the deficiency in getting on base and his move from a slightly above average defender to a slightly below average one. Once you league, park, and era adjust, it's just not that special. More homers were hit last year than ever before. It takes us fans a little longer to adjust our mental benchmarks. I think we're on the same page, though. The planets are aligning for us to aim much higher for the 3B spot, so we should take that chance. Moustakas is not a bad player by any means, but he's not a guy you change your plans for.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 06:25 PM) I love Yolmer. He's one of my favorite players. However, he does not fill the void, upon which I'm focusing. Neither does Moustakas. He's a lefty, yes, but if he's in the middle of our lineup in 2020, that means it probably isn't a playoff-caliber lineup.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 01:40 PM) Can someone explain to me why Moustakas has such a low WAR compared to his traditional stats, which were all very good in 2017. OBP was a little low but he had a good OPS and obviously big power numbers. I always thought Mike was pretty solid defensively as well. .314 OBP to .521 SLG. League-wide walk rates have been quietly trending upward along with the explosion in homers, making his OBP well below average and the SLG not really all that far above average. He's exactly the player type that makes OPS deceiving.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 03:23 PM) 1) This is what I learned from this exercise, that the "surplus value" Fangraphs publishes measures a different thing than what I'm looking to measure, namely, as you put it, what WAR should be worth, essentially the intrinsic value of WAR. Since figuring out the difference, I've been thinking of ways to attempt to measure and quantify this. If I come up with anything, I'll share the results. 2) For market valuation purposes, I totally understand why that conclusion makes sense. It's because teams will replace a star player with several quality players, hoping that works in their favor. That is what makes the market value of WAR linear. That said, I feel that the intrinsic value is likely nonlinear. I'm certain, for example, the incremental WAR that puts a team in the postseason is more valuable than most, as is the one that wins a divisional championship, as is the one that provides home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The question then becomes how to quantify and measure this? I don't think I have the answer to that question, nor do I think anyone does at this time. Ah, I see. Have you read up on "win curve" research? https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/rethinking-the-win-curve/ https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/win-curves-...player-pricing/ http://grantland.com/the-triangle/what-is-...n-curve-anyway/