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QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 11:03 AM) Good points.. I didn't think of the aspect of that these type of players are available every year. I still like Nunez, but can see with his injury history (hamstrings a lot if I remember) that if you zap his speed a bit, and combine his age, he can go from a really really nice UTIL and 3B fill in to just dead weight quickly. If you could get him on a 1 year deal I'd still consider though. I think he has flip ability. Definitely like Nunez much better on a one-year deal. Let the kids try to take the job from him.

Admittedly, Moran's bounceback/helium makes this look better than it did at first glance. In my head, Moran was a bust/post-hype sleeper, but it seems like his value has already started to climb again.

I just don't see anyone on the market today whose skillset can't be bought every year. So why not buy a 2-win player like Nunez when you actually need those two wins? Otherwise you're just hoping he doesn't decline much between now and the competitive years, and holding the bag for the salary either way. I'm definitely on board with looking for free agent opportunities in unique markets like these ones, but I think we have to be looking for upside. No matter who you sign, the only production you can be reasonably sure of is what comes in the next 12 months -- anything else is a substantial risk, and should be considered an additional "cost" of acquisition. That cost can be worth it to pay, but we need to feel like we have a good chance of getting more production than we're paying for. I just don't see any upside with Nunez/Melky/Jay types. It's possible you could get that with Martinez, but it sounds like the Red Sox are already offering him a pretty reasonable deal, so his price floor isn't really that low. I'm all about over rebound contracts to guys like Tillman and Buccholz, but I would think that the Gonzalez signing means those guys are still holding out for multi-year deals, because I can't believe Hahn didn't look into those guys first.

Unbelievably light return, at first glance.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2018 -> 01:32 PM) If anyone sees what Bryant signed for please post it - genuinely curious if he topped what Ryan Howard got in his first arb year. $10.85mm; new record.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 11, 2018 -> 02:16 PM) I think the slowness of the market is largely due to this year's free agent crop being pretty mediocre overall compared to how good next offseason's will be. It's definitely a big part of it. As good as Martinez is, his big tool is power in an era where power just became the most abundant tool available.

Great article. I think you nailed it, though I'd probably lean toward putting Robert on the EST/Rookie Ball track

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jan 11, 2018 -> 12:10 PM) Pardon my ignorance, but can he be cut since he was a Rule 5 last year? I'm not sure how that works. I believe that Rule 5 guys just need to stay on the active roster for the first year. After that, they become just like any other player, subject to the standard contract/options/service time/etc.

It would be a hell of a player dev boon if Garcia turned into a legit contributor. If it happens, I just hope it isn't too late to benefit from.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 07:14 PM) Why would I? You had the need to put in all caps I claimed the guy sucked for no reason. i am not the first to stop reading a post when it starts out as ridiculous as that. That makes a lot of sense, actually. I used to think you were playing dumb on purpose to get a rise out of me, but now I know you just aren't even bothering to consider what I'm saying. Finding a way to be insulted by someone who is trying to concede credit to you is a weird way to go through life, though.

I think John Danks still has a year left on his deal.

In

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 02:06 PM) They'd have LOVED for us to take Fisher.. He was never off the table Yeah?

QUOTE (KnightsOnMintSt @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 10:40 AM) I have been non-stop thinking of trade proposals for Yelich. Thoughts on any of these: 1. Hansen, Dunning, Collins, Low Level Prospect. 2. Hansen, Cease, Rutherford, Collins. 3. Dunning, Cease, Rutherford, Adams, Low Level Prospect. 4. Giolito, Fulmer, Collins, Low Level Prospect. 5. Lopez, Cease, Fulmer, Rutherford. Obviously I could go all day with this. 1. Which of these would White Sox accept? 2. Which of these would the Marlins accept? #5 is the only one that Marlins would seriously consider, IMO. And I think a contender would beat the offer.

Thought it sounded weird that neither of Fisher or Tucker were even available as a centerpiece to get four years of Quintana, but that they'd both be available six months later, AFTER the WS victory, just to get only two years of Gerrit Cole.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 10:36 AM) No, correction: if you or greg write he sucks FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER, you'll get backlash. In the post you accused me of saying he sucks for no reason. I have reasons for all of my opinions. Kind of a meatball assumption on your part. Dude you have to read past the first sentence. If you're not willing to do that, there's a limited amount of information that I can convey to you.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 10:13 AM) Funny, I could say the same thing. I have provided you plenty of reasons for my view. You have said I have provided none. Sorry my view doesn't line up with the math, but sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes I'm wrong and sometimes I'm right. But my view is my view. It really doesn't bother me you don't agree, or anyone else. You literally responded to a post where I typed an entire paragraph acknowledging and giving you credit for your reasons with a response repeating that I am ignoring your reasons.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 06:33 AM) I have given you reasons. You chose to ignore them, because they don't line up with your end all FIP and xFIP. We will find out in a couple of months. You don't even read what I type, do you?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 9, 2018 -> 03:28 PM) Yet if I or Greg write he sucks, there is a lot of backlash. We are arguing with math. You just don't want to hear anything that contradicts FIP or xFIP. No, correction: if you or greg write he sucks FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER, you'll get backlash. It isn't that you're arguing with math, it's that you're arguing without making a point. The whole reason this argument started was because you basically said "Soria sucks, otherwise the Royals wouldn't have dumped him for nothing," which would be about the weakest appeal to authority ever if it weren't for the fact that greg's argument was "Soria sucks, I know because I read Royals fans tweet bad things about him," thus taking the cake. The one post a few pages back where you said something like "I don't think you can bet on a guy that's 34 with two TJs to bounce back like some others do" made a ton of f***ing sense and I accept wholeheartedly. In fact, just as I can see Hahn saying to himself, "I need bullpen veterans, lemme go grab a dude whose FIP was way lower than his ERA so hopefully I have some semblence of upside without paying up," I can totally see Moore saying to himself, "Soria's arm is about to fall off, I saw him resort to some new tricks that aren't going to last forever, I better move him now before the league catches up" or something. And I actually hadn't thought of that until your post. None of us has any idea if he'll be good, but a productive conversation is people stating their views and then backing them up. If someone says I THINK THIS BECAUSE OF THESE REASONS and you respond with, essentially, NUH-UH WANNA BET? it's going to get a rise out of people every time.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 9, 2018 -> 03:06 PM) It wasn't bragging, but if you go back to when they signed him, any post not positive about his future performance was ill informed, exactly like not being positive about Soria. Peripherals. Based on the content of this thread, I cannot fathom how you can continue to accuse people about being certain about Soria's future performance. There are dozens of posts in this thread acknowledging uncertainty. Most in this thread are hopeful about a Soria bounceback because peripherals. LITERALLY NO ONE is certain that Soria is good because peripherals. You are creating a strawman, pretending we're arguing for that strawman, and then tearing down your own strawman.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 9, 2018 -> 01:30 PM) It seems to me this particular example doesn't really fit the bill. Using FIP and xFIP after last season, you wouldn't have predicted his FIP and xFIP numbers in 2017, and would have told anyone who did that they are arguing with math . The fact is, even if this is all you claim it is, it is not 100%, and everyone has access to this information. To become better than average, one must find anomalies with these numbers. Personally, I think his numbers were a bit inflated towards the positive, and he will be 34 years old with 2 TJS under his belt. Regression seems way more likely than anything else. 1) Practically every post I've made in this thread has specifically stated that I do NOT claim that this is 100% 2) This is the best post you've made on this subject. Because you're citing actual reasons that you are skeptical about his "regression" toward his FIP. That's all anyone is asking. It's totally reasonable to point out his age and TJ history as reasons that his stuff may decline quickly.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 9, 2018 -> 01:06 PM) This isn't entirely true. It's not math. It's models developed by people who decided which factors they think is important to predict outcomes. It's not 1+1=2. It's predictive models based on some people's opinions. That's not true. We're so far away from DIPS being new that people forget where it came from. Voros McCracken mathematically tested the year-to-year stability of every pitching metric he could think of, finding that relatively few were significant predictors of themselves going forward. He noticed a pattern: that the ones that WERE significant predictors of themselves going foward were those least affected by defense. He took ONLY those factors that were statistically significant predictors of future totals, and developed a formula that scale the results to ERA. Then, hundreds of people have rigorously tested and proven that FIP (and eventually xFIP, which is essentially just FIP with normalized HR rates) is a better predictor of ERA than ERA itself is. This is true throughout the entire live ball era. It is math. It's calculating probabilities, so it isn't as black and white as 1+1=2, but the formulas were derived and proven from actual data.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 9, 2018 -> 10:13 AM) I will bet Soria's ERA, K-rate, FIP and x-FIP are all higher in 2018 than they were in 2017. If they are not I will apologize for ever questioning peripherals permanently at the bottom of my posts, if you will put at the bottom of your posts that Greg and Dick were correct if that does occur. How bout dat? I have no interest at ALL in a dick measuring contest with you. God forbid someone point out that the random, free, lost-year bullpen flyer that the White Sox picked up might have some reasons for hope in his peripherals. If you have to pick up random dudes for your pen so that Dylan Covey doesn't have to pitch all year, it's smart to buy low on a guy with better peripherals than results. Why can't you bring yourself to admit that? I refuse to believe that you are incapable of understanding the BASICS of probability. Mathematics factually proves that pitchers with the numbers that Joakim Soria had last year are MORE LIKELY to improve (assuming health) than those that do not. Nothing, anywhere, EVER has suggested that it's LOCK that Joakim Soria improves. A guessing game, therefore, means nothing. If he sucks because you guessed he would suck based on nothing at all, it doesn't make you smart or correct about anything useful. If Soria becomes the best reliever in the league, it will not prove that low FIP always leads to improvement. No matter what happens, it will just be another data point contributing to a general trend that currently, whether or not Soria ultimately strengthens or weakens the argument, shows that low-FIP pitchers are more likely to improve. I know you love to contradict everything I say, though, so I'm sure you'll reply again with something that either (1) quibbles with some specific component of what is above, despite the fact that it doesn't change the argument at all, to try to get me away from my point, or (2) presents absolutely no useful information, likely including a snide comment about biased moderators or making some pathetic "wager" involving comment signatures like we're a couple of s***ty third graders on a playground. If that's what you need to do, go ahead. It won't change the tiny, non-controversial anecdote of a claim that all of us are making that there may be some hope to Soria in the numbers. And I know that you understand it, even if you pretend not to.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 9, 2018 -> 06:34 AM) Peripherals lie just like the eye test. It is hard for some to believe it but it's true. Look at the peripherals, Javy Vazquez was a far superior major league pitcher to Mark Buerhle . I don't know why people defend these peripheral kings to the death when you say they suck. Who is invested in Joakim Soria. I got the same crap you are getting a few years ago when the White Sox signed a pitcher from KC who I said sucked, but evidently the peripherals didn't agree, therefore I was a stooge. Felipe Paulino, how you doin? Zach Duke, same thing. Luckily for White Sox fans, Soria's stay will be closer in length to Paulino.. Naming the exceptions to the rule doesn't invalidate the rule. If you're going to list all the pitchers that DIPS got wrong, put them next to the massively larger list of pitchers DIPS got right. No one has ever claimed that it works 100% of the time. It is a fact that it works most of the time. That is why it makes sense to target DIPS anomalies like Soria.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 8, 2018 -> 04:37 PM) Honestly? They got LUCKY. Anyone here who saw Verlander being both dominant enough to earn his contract and available because the Tigers otherwise fell apart going into last season? That deal doesn't happen and the Astros don't have the ammunition to win it. To some extent, I think every championship winner gets lucky.