Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 02:42 PM) Pre 2017 Giolito was 25 BA 12 MLB 10 BP Midseason BA: 75 BP: 31

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 02:39 PM) I think you're really sleeping on these guys. Giolito not make a top 100 list because why? I seriously doubt he would of fallen out of the top 50s on most lists despite his slow start to the 2017 season. Luis Robert was ranked 45th, 23rd, & 37th on mid-season lists (BA, MLBP, FG) based almost solely on third hand scouting reports. He's almost certainly going to rise quickly in those rankings when these evaluators finally get to see him for themselves. And what do you mean Robert might be lower because of this age? Hansen is probably 50ish caliber prospect right now, but he has a ton of helium and will rise significantly with AA success. I don't think your evaluations take away from your initial point, but I think you're vastly underselling the quality of a proposed Giolito/Hansen/Robert package. I mean, I think that's a really great package. I'm not saying it's garbage. My initial reaction is simply to the comment that it's comparable to the "desired 2016" Sale package of Moncada/Devers/Kopech, and it just isn't. That's all I'm trying to say.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 02:20 PM) If Giolito was eligible - you really don't think he would be a top prospect? He fell pretty hard going into last year in a bunch of lists -- I think there were a couple lists that left him off even then. He was back quarter in practically all the rest. I know that he made it to the MLB with a good ERA, but the peripherals are downright terrifying -- and for prospect guys, that's important. I just don't know that you can look at a guy that took a second attempt at the big leagues, struck out 6 batters per nine and stuck in games thanks to a 92% strand rate and think that he's MORE promising. Not at all saying he isn't a valuable prospect, but in the context of the conversation (Yelich value), a package led by GIolito in 2017 isn't in the same stratosphere as a package led by Moncada in 2016.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 12:36 PM) ...aaaand, that's not what I was arguing. I was saying to characterize Moncada/Devers/Kopech as all being top 10 prospects at the same time with the Red Sox is blatantly incorrect. Moncada and Devers were. Devers was outside ten in some. Kopech wasn't but everyone knew he had helium. I don't know why you're arguing with me. I said these guys were "top ten types." If you're gonna nail me for whether or not some of them were LITERALLY in the ten as opposed to being just outside it, when the whole point is that those guys were a tier or two above the others being discussed, I really just don't know what you're trying to prove.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 12:33 PM) If the Sox are trading Avi to the Giants, I want Ramos. He and 2 lottery tickets would work for me. Definitely -- Ramos is the get there. It could be Ramos straight up and I think I'd be happy.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 12:09 PM) No one ever said the two packages were equal today. My point was 2017 Giolito/Robert/Hansen = 2016 Moncada/Kopech/Devers. I still think that's wrong. Moncada was consensus 1 overall, Devers was top ten overall on many, top 20 on all. Kopech was ~50-ish usually, sure. But 2017, Giolito may not even be on some top 100s. Robert and Hansen are probably ~50-ish. Some may even be lower on Robert because of his age.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 09:47 AM) Not saying they are, your claim that they are back end top 100 prospects is blatantly false though Ok, so you're ignoring the entire conversation and everything being expressed for the sake of nit-picking on my use of "back-end top 100 guys" where I should have said "back HALF top 100 guys." Accepted. Thank you for your contribution, even though it changed the conversation in no way.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 01:25 AM) That's not really accurate. Kopech was not a top 10 prospect when Moncada and Devers were (And I believe only Law had Devers in the top 10). BA had Kopech at #32. BP had Kopech at #36. I can't find a ranking for either MLB.com (Their link gets updated each time they do a list) or Law. I do think Law had Kopech higher than anyone else though. QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 08:56 AM) Robert is a top 50 in every publication, Giolito was top 50 in every preseason publication since 2014, and Hansen will be top 50 by midseason next year No one, anywhere, is higher on any of Giolito/Robert/Hansen than any of Moncada/Kopech/Devers. They are not in the same tier and there's no plausible way to argue otherwise.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 20, 2017 -> 05:22 PM) Not Gio, Robert, Hansen huge. That'd be like the Moncada, Kopech, Devers package many here wanted for Sale, and even he didn't bring that. Not at all, lol. Moncada/Kopech/Devers are all top ten overall prospects. Giolito/Robert/Hansen are like back-end top 100 guys.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 20, 2017 -> 04:19 PM) That's WAY too high. What you listed is essentially double the Eaton package, which was considered an overpay industry wide. Yelich will not command not garner that type of offer. Not even close. Respectfully, I think you're wrong here. He comes with five years of control at between $7mm - 15mm per year, and the last year is a team option. He's not quite as good a player as Sale, but his contract is even better. He could slot in to any of three OF positions, making him a fit for literally every contender. Market would be huge.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Dec 20, 2017 -> 03:42 PM) Actually the Rays got a really good haul for Longoria. Dude is 32 has a ton of money left and coming off a down year he's basically been a 3ish WAR player the last couple. Giants farm blows but they got their top prospect a 50 ish and two interesting arms. Not bad, not bad at all. Heliot Ramos is definitely the Giants top prospect, but you're right that it's a decent value overall when you consider the money.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 20, 2017 -> 01:31 PM) I don't think that package comes close to getting it done. Substitute Robert for Rutherford and it may get done, but even then it still feels light (probably need a better second piece than Cease). But yeah although I was initially in favor of it I'll pass. Maybe after next year if Yelich is still on the market. Yeah, you never know with the Marlins, but that offer isn't even close. Ten teams would outbid.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 03:33 AM) I can't believe he only pitched 100 innings for the Sox. I swear, in my head as a teenager, we had him for like 3-4 years. I vividly remember the gong intro and Hawk raving about his "frisbee" pitch that blew my mind about what was possible from a pitcher. I loved me some Shingo. His 1st MLB save: Hell yeah

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 08:03 AM) MLBTR says they want to. Why wouldn't they want to clear $21m each of next 2 years? You're right, I saw Rosenthal's report now. Sorry, I just couldn't believe they'd be so short-sighted. I mean, of course, they'd want to clear that money, but to give up prospects to do it?

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 12:48 AM) clearly you left out the subtext: Eloy was offered Lol, nice.

The Dodgers wouldn't give you prospects to take Kemp. They don't care about paying his salary, they just cared about the AAV getting them under the CB tax.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/al-r...do-red-sox.html No s***

He WILL have to posted, but the fee won't likely be anywhere close to the $20mm figure we're used to. So if the Sox are interested, there's no harm at all in just throwing a number out there that they're comfortable with -- worst case is they're outbid. If they are the high bidders and don't like his contract demands, they don't pay the fee.

This actually makes a ton of sense for the #barves, at least. Frees up playing time for Acuna while giving them short-term pitching depth that they can use to protect their still-pretty-raw upper level SP prospects and eventually deal at the deadline. For the Dodgers, I assume they save some money, tough I haven't taken a deep dive into the contracts.

Here's what I think is happening/is the strategy: Hahn sees Machado available for young pitching. White Sox, having such a deep farm now, almost certainly have some prospects/players that THEY think are overrated by consensus. He puts together a package of guys the Sox maybe have soured on but the rest of the industry won't catch onto for another half season or so, figuring that if he moves these guys for Machado, he can re-flip Machado for a different set of prospects at the deadline. Even if the "total value" of the return is similar or even a bit less than he paid, it could be a boon if he can get guys he likes better than those he gave up. That sounds like a "calculated risk" to me. And then, if he can extend him in-season instead, that's a bonus. But I can't believe they think an extension is anything more than a hail mary.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 03:07 PM) Jeff Passan‏Verified account @JeffPassan 3m3 minutes ago More The consensus on Carlos Santana's $60M deal with the Phillies: It bodes awfully well for free agent hitters. Santana is four years older than Eric Hosmer. A seven-year, $175M ask no longer seems beyond the pale. Good news for Logan Morrison and other available first basemen, too. Does this increase the chance of an Abreu deal?^ I guess I'm the only one that thought the Santana deal was pretty team friendly.

QUOTE (shipps @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 04:30 PM) Maybe. But if he becomes a part of the momentum of a special team going into the season after next he may want to stay a part of that. Maybe. But if our rookies take a step forward, and our team over-achieves its way to 78 wins WITH Machado, while the Yankees clobber their division and enjoy a deep playoff run that could end in a title, which do you think is going to sound more fun? I think, in many ways, it may be easier to sell Machado on the potential of playing with our guys than to show him what it actually feels like. Because even if it feels good, it's going to feel like a lot less winning than some of his alternatives.

It's been rumored all offseason, but Seibu has apparently formally submitted the paperwork to post their righty specialist, the submariner Makita. He's 33-years old. He sits mid-80's and doesn't strike a ton of guys out, but he's a groundball machine who doesn't walk anybody and he hasn't posted an ERA higher than last year's 2.30 since converting to the bullpen. He threw ~80- innings of 1.60 in 2016. Former Rookie of the Year starter. Looked pretty good against the US in the WBC. And our bullpen is sadness. Great candidate for some under-the-radar value, IMO, whether it's as a trade chip at the 2018 deadline or a useful and affordable piece of the 2019/2020 contender squad. http://tv.pacificleague.jp/vod/pc/topics/l...apacifico/23131

QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 03:14 PM) No one has said there wont be a battle. I'm not sure where you are getting that from. What we are saying is our odds go from probably 5 percent to 75 percent if he does like it here AND we pay him. If we wait for him to be a FA we have to hope he just really wants to be here for no apparent reason over other teams that are more attractive. You can increase your odds to 75 percent simply by being willing to top any offer. You don't have to give up any prospects.

If they make this deal -- whether or not it includes prospects or veterans, or if it makes sense or doesn't -- the Sox MUST be willing to offer him $400mm within the next couple months. Because the ONLY way he would EVER sign an extension in his walk year is if he thinks it's for more money than he can get on the open market. Even if he comes here and loves it, he loses nothing by waiting until free agency and seeing what other offers are there, which at the bare minimum drives the Sox price to market.