Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Baron @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 01:52 PM) His criteria is a little stupid though. Apparently small market teams unless your in the LA area...which is now a small market? Remember that no one from Otani's camp has said ANYTHING about a small market -- that was Cashman that said that. More assumptions made by irresponsible people on Twitter and exacerbated by irresponsible reporting. This whole this has been assumptions and speculation.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 02:00 PM) His second half walk rate tends to disagree with you. His second half walk rate of about 8% skyrocketed his season rate all the way to 5.9% which is about two points BELOW his career average. So no, that did not improve. Also, his 41% O-swing, the 9th worst in all of baseball, agrees strongly, and was measured over the entire season. It's also within 0.4% of his career number.

QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 12:12 PM) How many players hit .330 over the course of an entire season during any time in their career? There is a lot of skepticism that is not tied to reality - reality in this case being a player who has improved his plate discipline, has lost a lot of weight and has greatly improved his physical conditioning. He looks quicker and no doubt has more flexibility with the weight ;loss. In addition, he has effectively countered the strategy of pitching him low outside pitches by anticipating those pitches and taking them to right field. I see a progression in Avi's power numbers when pitchers start abandoning that strategy and try to get him out on the inside part of the plate more. I would not trade Avi unless a no-miss blue chip prospect is included plus one or two more highly rated prospects. This guy is a stud...one of the best hitters in the league and he might only get better adding power numbers. He may have improved his physical conditioning, but his plate discipline absolutely did NOT get better, which is among the most significant indicators that his perfromance may not have been sustainable.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 12:22 PM) You keep saying a .353 wOBA but it was .385 . The .353 is xwOBA and the article says the difference between the two is not overly high enough to say the luck factor was as significant as just looking at BABIP might suggest. You can't use the xwOBA to prove a point and then discredit it in the next breath. If you want to use his actual wOBA, then you're back into the original argument that his BABIP made him lucky. Also, a 30 point difference in wOBA is huge. The way I took the article was that a .353 wOBA would have "still been good," which it would have, just not nearly AS good, and well within shouting distance of mediocre when you factor in standard regression, especially when you consider how drastically different his season was than his career.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 11:20 AM) So you disagree with the whole premise that Avi wasn't significantly lucky last year ? Not sure you or maybe its me because you are certainly more in tune with stats than I am but I don't think that .353 figure you mentioned was a best season scenario , it's his expected xwOBA not wOBA based on his batted ball stats. His actual wOBA was .385. I hope you read the whole article. I did read the whole article, back when it came out. He was definitely significantly lucky, and you (and the article) addressed the luck component. My point is that you DIDN'T address the regression component. Whenever anyone has a breakout/career outlier season, the most likely thing to follow is regression toward career averages, simply by definition of it being an outlier season. Even if Avisail actually and sustainably improved, he's still likely to regress. And if the "improvement" was to a tune of a .353 wOBA, there isn't a ton of room for regression before he's league average. Which, keep in mind, is still a huge improvement over what he's been, but it isn't worth extending at market rates and it isn't worth potentially sacrificing a decent return in year two of a rebuild.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 10:54 AM) Here's an article from SSS about BABIP and if Avi really was lucky as some suggest . here is the conclusion but read the whole article to fully understand the data. https://www.southsidesox.com/2017/10/11/164...ir-side-in-2017 "It’s widely believed that Garcia’s .392 BABIP has fueled his stellar season. That’s true to a degree, but xwOBA doesn’t see him falling off all that hard. The .353 figure above still suggests he’s a very good hitter even without the fortuitous bounces. With his vastly improved defense in right field, Garcia looks the part of a well above-average player even when his luck comes back to earth." It also says that ground balls go for hits 24% of the time while fly balls are 21% . Now this info was from 2014 so there is the caveat that with many more HR's during 2017 that fly balls produce a higher percentage now. Also that xwOBA doesn't take the players speed into consideration . Avi had many infield hits and his speed and hustle down the first base line no doubt was a factor so speed isn't really luck it's just part of a players skill set. Now Avi no doubt caught a few infielders off guard with his improved speed and some of those hits were just a fielder taking his sweet time and Avi made them pay for it so those kind of hits most likely won't happen again. But overall when you take speed and xwOBA into consideration Avi was not as significantly lucky as many suggest. League average wOBA for a RF is .330. If his best season should have been a .353, it doesn't take much regression to be league average. And a league average bat with bad but maybe improving defense in RF is a below average player.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/white-sox-b...-up-at-catcher/

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Dec 3, 2017 -> 07:25 AM) His batted ball profile isn't that different from 2015-16 so I don't know what you guys are talking about. His exit velocity went down too, from 104 to 90 mph last season so it wasn't like he was hitting the ball harder. There ain't NO WAY Avi put up an average exit velocity of 104 mph at any point in his career.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 09:52 AM) Maybe he just didn't like bunting. Haha, I actually can't believe we didn't list that as an advantage. In Japan, they bunt like literally 5 times more often. EVERYONE bunts, even cleanup hitters. But maybe, just maybe -- THAT'S the real reason he wanted to leave Japan! Too many bunts! And he liked Chicago until he watched a few WHite Sox games and said, "Nope, this Renteria dude belong in Japan. Too many bunts."

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) No doubt. I’ll fully acknowledge that I’m a Cubs hater and for that reason alone it would be tough for Ohtani to land there, but my bigger fear is giving a big market team like the Cubs that already has a great young nucleus in place an asset that’s going to provide a ridiculous amount of surplus from the get-go for basically nothing. Even worse would be the fact they pulled this off while in the penalty box and got to reap all those fruits as well. While I still think Seattle & San Diego are the favorites, I’ve learned in life to never rule Theo out. Dude is as smart as they come and will find a way against all odds to keep the Cubs in the conversation. I'm okay knowing that he didn't choose the White Sox because he wanted to be with a team that had something we couldn't have -- like being on the West Coast, or having a better Japanese-American population. But it would really hurt knowing he was willing to choose Chicago despite all that, and that the Cubs simply beat us at pitching him. Because if he's considering the Padres, you know the contention window thing doesn't matter.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 08:49 AM) I will admit I enjoy seeing NY all salty about this. The amount of entitlement that city has is beyond unbearable. Agreed. Gotta admit though, I'm getting a little stressed that the Cubs are still involved.

Interesting -- didn't see that coming.

There is no question.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 11:30 AM) I think so. I think you'd have to be willing to guarantee the fifth year. 5/$100mm is fair.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 10:53 PM) Maybe my pro-Avi stance the last few years and his very good season is wearing you down . One more very good year from him and I might even be able to say " told ya so. " If so, man, I'll gladly wear it. I'm still not on board, simply because I saw better results this year from the same old (in my eyes) flawed process, and I just can't see the objective evidence that it'll continue. But I've always said I hope I'm wrong about him, and I really do.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 03:26 PM) What a time to be alive - Eminor is defending Avisail Garcia. I almost forgot which player we were talking about a couple times.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 10:28 AM) This was the whole point. You can't just use this stat and say he was a good base runner. This stat doesn't necessarily measure that. It's not a good thing to have bad base running instincts but produce a positive value on the bases. There is something wrong with the way the stat is calculated if people are going to use it to say they were a good base runner or the person is using the stat incorrectly. The other issue with the stat is that you cannot say that AVI was a better base runner this year compared to last year with this stat. The stat uses the performance of the rest of the league in the calculation. How do you know the rest of the league didn't do worse this year and AVI stayed the same? That would show an improvement in Avi's measurement for this year. They would need to compile the data from both years to truly get his measure. As I said before, I'm not trying to say that stat is useless you just need it in context like all stats. It has value. However, saying that AVI is better because this stat says so and the eye test means nothing is a poor way to look at it. It's a good place to start but you shouldn't discount other information just because this stat say so. I think we're just arguing different things. The first bolded line doesn't make any sense to me at all. Your second bolded line is one I've tried to address with every reply but have apparently failed. The eye test can help you diagnose things and help you project things, but it cannot measure value in an objective and normalized way like the stat can. They are simply not useful for the same thing. You may be correct that he makes too many bad decisions on the basepaths based on your personal observations, but you cannot make any remotely convincing case about his net baserunning value based on your personal observations. Even a seasoned scout who watched him in person couldn't. And if you're evaluating the value a player can bring to a team, you are concerned about his net baserunning value much more than any single component of it, unless you feel like you can improve said component to positively affect the net value. I think the actual argument you'd make against dunts or whoever it was that posted the stat originally would be: "Sure, he posted a positive value this year, but it was a barely positive value and the first such instance in his career. Based on (1) the bone-headed decisions I've watched him make over the years, (2) the precedent set by the rest of his career, and (3) the fact that Bsr stats tend to take multiple seasons to become predictive, I think it's far more likely that last year was a fluke than it is that Avi has made a substantial and sustainable improvement on the basepaths." And that argument makes a ton of sense and I honestly would probably believe it. But it isn't because the stats being used are junk.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 11:56 AM) I agree with this but now is the time to move if they are truly going to move him. I read this one of two ways: Sox leaked Red Sox to the media in order to press some other suitors into action on Abreu in talks. Also possible, Dombrowski floated the possibility of trading for Abreu because they are in the Hosmer/Martinez market and Boras hasn't even started moving. I hadn't thought about the bolded, but it makes a ton of sense. Dombrowski must be aware that he's Boras' best buyer on both of those guys, and he doesn't want to let Boras drag it out until March.

I'm obviously pro-rebuild and also believe that the Sox still need more talent in the system to really do this right, but I don't like this fit. Obviously there's a price for any player, but I don't see anything left in the Red Sox system that would make sense. I've said it before, but I think Abreu is worth more to the White Sox than he is on the open market.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 12:37 AM) You should want it a different way by watching if the runners makes a smart decision, regardless of the fact that 15 others players on the team would have made a different decision which would have been right for them. Right, but all that stuff is baked in. If a guy is a "dumb" baserunner and gets himself thrown out at bad times, he's going to get docked. If he's slow but "smart" and finds opportune times to get extra bases anyway, he's going to get credit. If he's slow but "smart" and simply doesn't ever advance, he's not going to get credit because he doesn't advance -- but he won't get hit as hard as he would if he created an out. It doesn't matter what combination of athleticism or instincts leads to the result -- a guy either creates value on the basepaths or subtracts value on the basepaths. All of that will show up in UBR/wSB, each event conveniently compared at precisely the level that they typically produce or subtract runs. How much worse is it to get thrown out than to simply NOT advance? That is EXACTLY the type of situation where linear weights shines the most. Kendry Morales is probably the slowest dude in the whole league. He probably knows that he should practically never advance more than one base in any situation. So he clogs up the bases, turning RBI hits into non-RBI hits. If a team wants to acquire him, and baserunning comes up, should they give him positive marks? Should he be considered a plus on the basepaths? Of course not. His "smarts" very well help him, but at the end of the day, he kills you on the bases. The claim that "Avi has bad baserunning instincts" and the claim that "Avi produced positive value on the bases last year" can both be true, but the former is merely an aspect of the latter.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 09:04 PM) This is the issue with the stat. How they determine how often they expect a runner to score is inherently flawed. Not every runner is the average of the league. No, of course every runner isn't average, but I'm not sure why that would be relevant. This stat is using average as a baseline for comparison, and a runner that consistently advances more than average is rewarded and of course the opposite is true. Why would we want it any other way? Granted: There are going to be outlier situations, such as when a ball takes an incredibly fortunate/unfortunate carom off the wall right to/away from a fielder. But the idea is that those things get ironed out over large samples. I think maybe your issue is to assume the stat measures true talent at every snapshot, which no one will claim. In fact, it's pretty standard to consider two and three years samples of baserunning data to be able to project future performance. What the stat DOES do is flat out say that this IS what happened on the field, in terms of expected run value, compared to the average player. It's a counting stat like so many others. It's no different than looking at homeruns, really -- a guy either did or didn't hit a certain number of homeruns. Whether you want to consider a single season of a homerun total as a measure of his true talent is up to many other factors. I don't think anyone is really willing to point to Avi's UBR and say that it means he's a good baserunner now. But he DID put up an improved number this year, and so it is a relevant data point. More like a "FWIW" thing.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 11:02 PM) Eminor: No problem. I care in this case because fundamentals have been so bad on the Sox since the last few years under Ozzie. It costs them games. Avi's baseball-sense, in my opinion is poor. Base running is part of those fundamental instincts and while to the eye he has improved slightly, to me, again, he's still bad at it and in his judgments. It all has to weigh on Hahn's mind as he tried to decide if he wants to offer him an extension. Can't argue with any of that.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 03:16 PM) I would disagree with this to a degree. All owners have the money. However, not all of them have the money to absorb a 20 AAV mistake. That could cripple some teams budget and mkae the team useless. What you said is correct, but that's not what I'm trying to get at. The point I was trying to make is that the fiscally correct way for an ownership group to look at an investment is the total value of the expenditure while factoring inflation. It isn't that the Angels owners are saying "wow this hurts paying Pujols $30m in his age 39 season," it's that the Angels owners spent $240mm to get the rest of Pujols career when he was 32 or whatever. And there's a payment plan that defers that cost ten or so years into the future.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 03:14 PM) This stats looks at base running as a pure run expectancy as the only relevant base running plays. I would disagree that it looks at all of base running in general. Knowing how to stretch a single to a double or take an extra base isn't really considered. Neither is stealing a base. I would classify those as part of base running. As Balta said, that stuff is all in there. I'm sure some stuff is missed somewhere, and the data is no doubt imperfect, but that stuff IS being counted. QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 03:26 PM) I know that you can't quantify what goes through a player's mind when he is running, a situation which has billions of variables and how the defense is going to react to that specific situation. To me, my eye test, Avi has improved as a base runner but he's far from ideal which goes into factoring if you want to re-sign him along with his defense which is generally poor and his offensive production. Fundamentals, baseball-sense are important to me. I don't mind at all if you disagree and hate it, and respect your knowledge and opinion as a long-time fan and poster, I just posted the link because I want you to know what you're actually disagreeing with here. You're right that we can't count what's in a player's head -- but to me, whatever goes through a player's head on the basepaths only matters if it affects his actual baserunning behavior, which can be and is observed and quantified. If he has instincts, good or bad, that DON'T result in him making different running decisions, I don't know why we care.

I think any or all of those relievers could go, but I think they'd try to bring all of them back on Minor league deals. If it was up to me, I'd just tender all of them knowing my payroll is like five million total already.