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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 09:25 AM) The thought is that if Ellsbury wants to receive regular playing time he would waive his NTC rather than be stuck on the Yankees bench If he was playing for a contract, maybe I could buy that -- but he's locked up through 2021 on what is obviously the biggest contract of his career. I would think he's likely more interested in championships than an extra 200 ABs, especially because it isn't like he has an insignificant role with the Yankees.

Doesn't Ellsbury have a NTC? Why would he allow himself to be dumped to a non-contender?

I like Yelich, I like his contract, and I think he'd still be very useful when the team is good. I absolutely do not want to pay what it will take to acquire Yelich.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 12:01 PM) I'd rather play Sanchez, Anderson, and Moncada from day 1 and see if they can hold onto the jobs. I don't disagree strongly, but generally speaking, I do think we still need flippables to collect assets. BA and Razzball both summarized our system by saying "strong up top; sharp decline after 10 or 15," and I tend to agree. I think there's room for collection all the way up until the first "compete" year.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 05:32 PM) Isn't the Giants farm pretty bottom of the barrel these days? Yes, they have one good prospect and a couple interesting ones, and none of those guys were included in this deal.

QUOTE (iWin4Ron @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 03:25 PM) Sorry -- I've been out of it for a bit on the Giants since they did absolutely horrible last year... ... Why does this make sense for the Giants? Trading for an impending free agent ageing CF when they came off a terrible season? Don't they need to rebuild or is their legitimate chance that they can contend? 1. The Giants have decided to continue to push inward until the whole thing collapses in a spectacular, molten heap -- kind of like the Phillies did. 2. Perhaps surprisingly, the Giants had literally the worst OF in ALL OF BASEBALL by fWAR last year, and their OF doesn't have anyone that seems likely to bounce back, so even league average players are substantial upgrades. 3. The price to get McCutchen was very small, and because of the pending reckoning referenced in (1), a short term acquisition may serve them better than a big free agent contract at this juncture.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 11:03 AM) Good points.. I didn't think of the aspect of that these type of players are available every year. I still like Nunez, but can see with his injury history (hamstrings a lot if I remember) that if you zap his speed a bit, and combine his age, he can go from a really really nice UTIL and 3B fill in to just dead weight quickly. If you could get him on a 1 year deal I'd still consider though. I think he has flip ability. Definitely like Nunez much better on a one-year deal. Let the kids try to take the job from him.

Admittedly, Moran's bounceback/helium makes this look better than it did at first glance. In my head, Moran was a bust/post-hype sleeper, but it seems like his value has already started to climb again.

I just don't see anyone on the market today whose skillset can't be bought every year. So why not buy a 2-win player like Nunez when you actually need those two wins? Otherwise you're just hoping he doesn't decline much between now and the competitive years, and holding the bag for the salary either way. I'm definitely on board with looking for free agent opportunities in unique markets like these ones, but I think we have to be looking for upside. No matter who you sign, the only production you can be reasonably sure of is what comes in the next 12 months -- anything else is a substantial risk, and should be considered an additional "cost" of acquisition. That cost can be worth it to pay, but we need to feel like we have a good chance of getting more production than we're paying for. I just don't see any upside with Nunez/Melky/Jay types. It's possible you could get that with Martinez, but it sounds like the Red Sox are already offering him a pretty reasonable deal, so his price floor isn't really that low. I'm all about over rebound contracts to guys like Tillman and Buccholz, but I would think that the Gonzalez signing means those guys are still holding out for multi-year deals, because I can't believe Hahn didn't look into those guys first.

Unbelievably light return, at first glance.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2018 -> 01:32 PM) If anyone sees what Bryant signed for please post it - genuinely curious if he topped what Ryan Howard got in his first arb year. $10.85mm; new record.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 11, 2018 -> 02:16 PM) I think the slowness of the market is largely due to this year's free agent crop being pretty mediocre overall compared to how good next offseason's will be. It's definitely a big part of it. As good as Martinez is, his big tool is power in an era where power just became the most abundant tool available.

Great article. I think you nailed it, though I'd probably lean toward putting Robert on the EST/Rookie Ball track

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jan 11, 2018 -> 12:10 PM) Pardon my ignorance, but can he be cut since he was a Rule 5 last year? I'm not sure how that works. I believe that Rule 5 guys just need to stay on the active roster for the first year. After that, they become just like any other player, subject to the standard contract/options/service time/etc.

It would be a hell of a player dev boon if Garcia turned into a legit contributor. If it happens, I just hope it isn't too late to benefit from.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 07:14 PM) Why would I? You had the need to put in all caps I claimed the guy sucked for no reason. i am not the first to stop reading a post when it starts out as ridiculous as that. That makes a lot of sense, actually. I used to think you were playing dumb on purpose to get a rise out of me, but now I know you just aren't even bothering to consider what I'm saying. Finding a way to be insulted by someone who is trying to concede credit to you is a weird way to go through life, though.

I think John Danks still has a year left on his deal.

In

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 02:06 PM) They'd have LOVED for us to take Fisher.. He was never off the table Yeah?

QUOTE (KnightsOnMintSt @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 10:40 AM) I have been non-stop thinking of trade proposals for Yelich. Thoughts on any of these: 1. Hansen, Dunning, Collins, Low Level Prospect. 2. Hansen, Cease, Rutherford, Collins. 3. Dunning, Cease, Rutherford, Adams, Low Level Prospect. 4. Giolito, Fulmer, Collins, Low Level Prospect. 5. Lopez, Cease, Fulmer, Rutherford. Obviously I could go all day with this. 1. Which of these would White Sox accept? 2. Which of these would the Marlins accept? #5 is the only one that Marlins would seriously consider, IMO. And I think a contender would beat the offer.

Thought it sounded weird that neither of Fisher or Tucker were even available as a centerpiece to get four years of Quintana, but that they'd both be available six months later, AFTER the WS victory, just to get only two years of Gerrit Cole.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 10:36 AM) No, correction: if you or greg write he sucks FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER, you'll get backlash. In the post you accused me of saying he sucks for no reason. I have reasons for all of my opinions. Kind of a meatball assumption on your part. Dude you have to read past the first sentence. If you're not willing to do that, there's a limited amount of information that I can convey to you.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 10:13 AM) Funny, I could say the same thing. I have provided you plenty of reasons for my view. You have said I have provided none. Sorry my view doesn't line up with the math, but sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes I'm wrong and sometimes I'm right. But my view is my view. It really doesn't bother me you don't agree, or anyone else. You literally responded to a post where I typed an entire paragraph acknowledging and giving you credit for your reasons with a response repeating that I am ignoring your reasons.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2018 -> 06:33 AM) I have given you reasons. You chose to ignore them, because they don't line up with your end all FIP and xFIP. We will find out in a couple of months. You don't even read what I type, do you?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 9, 2018 -> 03:28 PM) Yet if I or Greg write he sucks, there is a lot of backlash. We are arguing with math. You just don't want to hear anything that contradicts FIP or xFIP. No, correction: if you or greg write he sucks FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER, you'll get backlash. It isn't that you're arguing with math, it's that you're arguing without making a point. The whole reason this argument started was because you basically said "Soria sucks, otherwise the Royals wouldn't have dumped him for nothing," which would be about the weakest appeal to authority ever if it weren't for the fact that greg's argument was "Soria sucks, I know because I read Royals fans tweet bad things about him," thus taking the cake. The one post a few pages back where you said something like "I don't think you can bet on a guy that's 34 with two TJs to bounce back like some others do" made a ton of f***ing sense and I accept wholeheartedly. In fact, just as I can see Hahn saying to himself, "I need bullpen veterans, lemme go grab a dude whose FIP was way lower than his ERA so hopefully I have some semblence of upside without paying up," I can totally see Moore saying to himself, "Soria's arm is about to fall off, I saw him resort to some new tricks that aren't going to last forever, I better move him now before the league catches up" or something. And I actually hadn't thought of that until your post. None of us has any idea if he'll be good, but a productive conversation is people stating their views and then backing them up. If someone says I THINK THIS BECAUSE OF THESE REASONS and you respond with, essentially, NUH-UH WANNA BET? it's going to get a rise out of people every time.