thxfrthmmrs

Because there isn’t anyone else who is better than Wheeler and Grandal who is realistically available other than Cole. One of Renson and Stras will resign, if not both, I don’t consider Bum a better signing than a wheeler and Grandal is a better fit than JDM, I don’t mind either for the record. Anyone who is disappointed by the signing of those two needs to readjust their expectations.

Which is why I said signing Grandal isn't necessarily disappointing vs. signing a big name like JDM. I think Grandal is a better fit all things considered.

I think you'd also have to factor in the pre-arb cost, which is probably around $8M for 10-11 players Committed Salary $15.3M (3 players) + Arb cost $25M (5 players) + Abreu ~$15M + pre-arb cost $8M (10-11 players) That gets us around $68M for 19-20 players, and leaves us ~60M for 6-7 players in FA. BTW pre-arb guys I have as likely 2020 players: Moncada, Gio, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Collins, Mendick, Fry, Bummer.

I don't know your rationale of picking Grandal over JDM in your post. JDM is mostly like opting out and Sox is in the short list of favorites to sign him, and he does fit within our price range. If he doesn't sign here, I think it more of an issue of fit than dollars. If you revised your OP with JDM over Grandal, you could still call it a realistic offseason.

It really isn't a disappointing offseason by any means. Like I said in the other thread, Nats will likely retain one of Rendon/Stras, if not both. That leaves Cole and JDM as the biggest names to change teams. Wheeler and Grandal are in the top 5-8 range FA rankings go. I would actually argue that's a strong off season.

Taking a closer look at Nats payroll, they're at $115M including arb costs and likely team options if Stras opts out. Their only other major needs are 1B, part time C, and a couple of high end BP arms. If they re-up with Rendon and Stras for $70M AAV, that still gives them room to work with to address the remaining needs. So I just don't think Stras is leaving even if he opts out. And if Nats aren't willing to match a 5/$160M contract he gets elsewhere, that may also be telling of how they see his body able to hold up for the duration for the contract.

He pitched 130 inning last year and reached only 200 IP once before this year. As for this year, when it's all said and done, he's probably putting in 250 IP this year alone. History suggests he's liability to stay healthy, and the added toll on his arm from the extended workload this year is a red flag. That said, I do agree 5/$160M would be the max anyone should be giving him. I don't him know who's going to be desperate enough to go beyond that, and that contract would be disaster waiting to happen.

If he opts out, he's most likely looking for a 4/5 year deal with close to $30M AAV. Even though it's a shorter deal, would you take him over Cole with all his injury history? That would be a big NO for me.

I don't see Sox parting with Leury, and Osich has a future as a LOOGY. We'd be spending a lot more in the open market.

Yep, misread on bbref. Point still stands though.

We paid Nova $9M to pitch 200 innings last season. If Rodon could pitch even 80 innings next season he needs to be back, especially with 2 more years of cost control left after 2020.

Assuming Yolmer and Goins are only nontender candidates, we’re at $54M after all the pre-arb and arb costs. With Abreu deal we’re closing in at the $70M mark. We do not have as much payroll flexibility as some may have been hoping for.

That number is fair for a decent closer. We don’t have in house replacement to trade or non tender Colome.

You and I see eye to eye on this one. Cole and Gardner are my preferred stop gaps.

More than what he has learned at Astros it’s about how he needs to pitch going forward and how he game plans for an opponent. For Christ’s sake Sox are just experimenting with using TrackMan data in Kanny middle of this year, something that was available to SEC schools since 2015 and used by Astros to game plan for their opponents. http://sportsmockery.com/2019/08/white-sox-scouting-department-finally-catching-up-to-sec-baseball/

Those are the changes in a nutshell but there are more that goes behind it and game plan and development plan changes from game to game and opponent to opponent, those are driven by analytics with the Astros. And it would be crazy to think switching pitching staff and the aforementioned resources has no impact to his success. Anyways, we're debating a moot point, I don't see JR opening the checkbook for that kind of money for a pitcher.

Sox and Padres got to where they are right not very differently, the prediction in itself doesn't look into the underlying issues or factors for success. While Sox is positioned for success for the next few years because of the high end prospects they have received back from trades and Robert signing, in order to have sustained success, there are a host of issues they need to address, I don't need to rehash those right here.

See the sources in my edit. I don't agree that you learn to make one change and that sets you for success the rest of your career, not in today's MLB. Case in point, Cole has always had dominant stuff and was one of the best young pitchers in 2015. But the Pirates' lack of guidance and development plan basically slowed his growth over the next two years until Astros started working with him. Pitching and hitting is always a cat and mouse game, especially with accessibility to depth of resources and information available today. 2019 was a year for hitters (juiced balls aside), you could safely assume a lot of team are working with their pitchers to re-adjust come up with a different game plan for 2020. That's only the technology and the data analytics side, and on the human side, Sox pitching staff are quickly falling behind on modern day pitching philosophies.

You mean the organization that turned Avi into a useful player? https://www.google.com/amp/s/fansided.com/2019/06/06/mlb-charlie-morton-rays-cy-young/amp/ This doesn’t go into the specifics of what their development plan is, but you get the idea.

I don't have the specific details but I remember a Ringer article mentioning the specifics of how Astros individualizes pitching development to many of their pitchers, providing videos, heat map, recommendations, etc. and a lot of the content is made available to pitchers after their start. Obviously he will go where the most money is, but if money is similar then it's a different story. Edit: this is what I was referring to. This may not suggest pitchers use the resources after each outing to make adjustments, but it's certainly helpful when they're struggling and he could pinpoint exactly what the issues are. https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting The Astros’ new toys gave them PD powers they previously hadn’t possessed. By 2017, the Astros were establishing clear, individually tailored goals for their pitchers in spring training and giving them feedback based on TrackMan data after every outing, with portable and mounted Edgertronics—seven of which the Astros have installed at Minute Maid Park, with seven more at each minor-league park in their system—available for more detailed looks.

If I am Cole I wouldn't want to come here TBH. He has had so much success from Astro's continuous feedback through data analytics, coming here would be 2 steps backward for him. If Astros can't afford him, he'd likely go elsewhere where they have similar technology and emphasis in place.

I had been Hill train for a while. If we could get him on an incentive heavy deal I’d be all over it. We don’t need someone to pitch 200 innings as the 2nd FA SP, just need someone to start for a few months until the like of Kopech, Dunning and Rodon are ready. Also with the 26th guy added next year, who most likely would be an RP, they could tandem with Hill on days he only go for 4 or 5 innings. While some may disagree, the point of the exercise is to find bargain where available so we could allocate the spending elsewhere.

Thanks for the writeup. Sounds like he's Palka with plate discipline. What worries me is how the power would translate and how he'd adjust MLB pitching that's evolved quite a bit just the past few years. On top of that, he's contact rate seemed like red flag in 2019. That said, I agree Akiyama should be a better fit here, I hope the Sox make a serious run at him.

Good catch. I knew he was the IFA too, forgot to exclude the posting fee.

https://jaysjournal.com/2019/09/16/blue-jays-and-the-other-free-agent-market/ There’s a few more names here that could be posted, and one IFA. Shogo Akiyama is who I’d be interested in as a 4th OF option with an outside chance of starting at RF. He’s been compared to as a better version of Nori Aoki, and I don’t think he’d cost more than 3/$10M including posting fee.