Feeky Magee

ABREU BASE HIT

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 11:39 PM) Gave up the game-tying hit. I mean if you want to dig into the peripherals, Lindstrom (along with Belly and Veal) are among the last in MLB relievers in swing-and-miss %, leading to a woeful 2.57 K/9 so far. I'm not saying that's sustainable, but right now the dude is just not missing bats. And even if the runners were inherited, he certainly didn't earn anyone's love and adoration the other night. What it comes down to is this: I have never seen a box score that more obviously screams: "WOW, THOSE PLAYERS WERE JUST GOD AWFUL THAT NIGHT! IT'S AMAZING THEY WENT 14 INNINGS SOMEHOW!" You can criticize the manager for that if you want, but I think you'll have way more valid opportunities to do so in the future. This was just an abysmal night for Sox players, no matter how the manager played it. Believe it or not, I'm not even really a Robin defender. I just think managers have limited influence and are thus overblamed when crap goes wrong. This monstrosity of a bullpen performance is a perfect example. If Ventura had an even mildly competent bullpen that night, they manage to squeeze through those last couple of innings without walking a bajillion guys and coughing up a gift-wrapped win. I'm not even really blaming Ventura for it going 14 innings, my pretty much sole point has been that Cleto is the last guy that should be up in a high-leverage situation.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 11:50 PM) Downs has not had an ERA above 3.15 since 2006. Downs clearly does not have the ability to get people out at this point in time. Same thing with Lindstrom. He may revert to form at some point, but there's no reason to expect anything but failure at this point. He did make it into the game eventually, remember, and guess what happened? Well it's not the same thing with Lindstrom. Downs's ERA/FIP/xFIP is 10.80/6.35/7.18/. Lindstrom's is 3.86/3.34/4.71. Not to mention that Downs is 4 years older than Lindstrom and much more likely to become ineffective overnight. And, er, Lindstrom made it into the game eventually and gave up 1 hit, 0 walks and 0 earned runs over 2 innings?

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:13 PM) The point of that graph is that the relative difference between Cleto and Lindstrom is negligible when they're orders of magnitude below an acceptable level. The choice between the two is completely irrelevant even if Lindstrom is twice as reliable as Cleto (in reality, he's not). No, it's not. And Lindstrom's ERA for the last 3 years has been 3.12, 2.68 and 3.00. His xFIPs are in the high 3s and FIP in the low 3s. In an incredibly small sample size this year, his ERA is in the high 3s, his xFIP in the high 4s and his FIP in the low 3s. What about any of that is orders of magnitude below an acceptable level to you? He's obviously not elite, but he's an above-average major league reliever, and has to this point shown many magnitudes more of performance than Cleto has.

Hoping we get to see Leury at some stage tonight so he can get his ERA lower than Paulino's

Putnam is our saviour

What happens first - Abreu's next hit or Paulino's next 1-2-3 inning?

Haha, was that defensive indifference in the 3rd inning?

If the 1-1 and 1-2 went Rodon and Kolek, who would people want at 3 - Aiken or Hoffman?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 10:41 AM) He makes me ill when he enters a game. Just like Linebrink did, when he comes in im surprised if he gets the job done. Right.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:51 AM) I am really not a fan of Lindstrom at all. I dont think he is a decent reliever, i think he is very hittable and prone to coughing up leads. The faster he is out of the 9th inning discussion, the happier I will be So do you think his results have not been good enough or they are misleading, because they look like the results of a pretty decent reliever to me?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:22 AM) Not just walks, just general sucktitude and ineptness. You can focus on walks all you want, but none of these pitchers have done anything to inspire any sort of faith in any of them. Look I agree the bullpen is awful, but you don't then just say it doesn't matter who they throw out there. Lindstrom has a long history of being a decent reliever. Webb is clearly very good. Petricka has been decent since transitioning to a reliever (he walks too many and he doesn't walk nearly as many as Cleto). They should all obviously be better options in high-leverage situations than Cleto right now. I get the Cleto gamble. He's clearly got electric stuff. But he simply hasn't shown ability to get consistent results from it. Everyone else in the pen has shown this ability more than he has. Therefore he should be used in the lowest-leverage possible until he does. That's all. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:27 AM) So where he is good, he is lucky, and where he is bad, it is permanent? I get you have it in for Cleto, but again this pen is soooo bad right now. If a starter goes 6/7 innings, this team WILL have a bad pitcher throwing in a high leverage situation. It is a statistical certainty. The only question is which bad pitcher. Lindstrom has sucked this year. So have Downs, and Bellisario, and Veal. That is five of your seven relievers who have been flat out bad. Then you come to Petricka who has been meh. His peripherials have been scary, and almost 6 walks/9IP. That leaves you Webb. That's it. Seeing as he can't go in every situation, in every game, he only has so many uses. Then add to that he is a rookie with a total of 15 major league games, and remember that the Sox usually ease rookies into the big jobs in the pen. Even Bobby Jenks spent time in middle relief before closing. Centering an argument on just walks from the previous season, and a guess at the managers state of mind when picking a reliever is just silly. Pretty much when Cooper/Ventura go to the pen right now they are picking if they want to get kicked in the right testicle or left one, because they know it is coming. Anyone would say a .118 BABIP is lucky. It's not a case of picking and choosing, it's simple statistical analysis. You call Petricka's peripherals scary and yet his FIP and xFIPs are in the low 3s. He's walking too many yeah, but he's striking out about twice as many batters as Cleto and he doesn't have an unsustainable BABIP.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) Just walks? How about the more of the picture? Lindstrom 2014 BB/9: 2.57 Cleto 2014 BB/9: 9.45 LIndstrom WHIP 1.571 Cleto WHIP 1.350 Linstrom ERA 3.86 Cleto ERA 1.35 Linstrom H/9 11.6 Cleto H/9 2.7 Well I was specifically referring to his point about walks. If you're going to consider things like H/9, why not talk about their BABIP? Lindstrom's is .321, Cleto's .118. Cleto's been lucky. Cleto xFIP: 7.57 Lindstrom xFIP: 4.71 Cleto FIP: 5.30 Lindstrom FIP: 3.34 These are obviously from incredibly small sample sizes, but apparently most people don't want to look at Cleto last season, so there you go.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 08:13 AM) I think it may have been based on his actual good perfor8.94mance relative to the other absolutely abysmal performances from 80% of the rest of the options. And he was kept in a little longer because there were only 2 guys left in the pen. One of them was the "closer" who has a 25% save percentage so far, and the other pitched the day before. Well yeah. But this is my point: a) his performance hasn't actually been good and b) he has a recent history of being way more terrible than anyone else in the pen. I mean you can quote 25% save percentage, but Lindstrom has been better than Cleto this season, even ignoring their vastly different pasts. QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 08:13 AM) I dont think this is the case at all. I dont think Robin looked at it and said to himself "Cleto has been good today and this season, we should leave him in". I think he looked at it and said "We need to get some outs. Cleto just did that, Lindstrom hasnt really done that. Lets hope Cleto can do that again" Again, everyone has sucked. You could flip a coin, put a pitcher in, and most likely get the same result, WALKS. Nobody percieves Cleto to be any better than his fellow bullpen pitchers. You're saying that between Cleto and Lindstom you're most likely to get the same result in terms of walks? Lindstrom 2014 BB/9: 2.57 Cleto 2014 BB/9: 9.45 Lindstrom 2013 BB/9: 3.41 Cleto 2013 BB/9: 8.94 and 4.97 in two AAA stops

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 07:24 AM) I really don't know how you conclude Cleto starting the ninth was based entirely on his current ERA. If that was the case, there are only one or two relievers Ventura would ever use. Well it's a bit simplistic to say based entirely on his current ERA, but I think putting him in in the 8th in a high leverage situation and leaving him in for the 9th was largely based on his perceived good performance this year. Obviously they think he has the stuff as well, but if his ERA more accurately matched his peripherals, i don't think he gets put in there. A degree of guesswork involved there of course.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 06:45 AM) So they never should have used Matt Thornton for anything, ever, because he had years of being bad before he got here, right? Thornton was never as bad as Cleto was last year but regardless, my point is that Cleto should not be in high-leverage situations right now, seemingly solely based on the fact that he has a (luckily) good 2014 ERA. If he shows the amount of improvement Thornton showed, then sure. Was Thornton pitching in high-leverage situations after he had pitched just 20 innings in the majors?

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 09:58 PM) As much as I like Nate Jones, he's been a shaky reliever for the most part, with periods of dominance peppered with periods of incompetence. Would he help? Sure, but you can't throw him out there every day. Even with his awful start last season, he was one of the most valuable relievers in baseball

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 08:28 PM) If you go all by his past, the guy shouldn't be in uniform. He should be selling cars. I agree his past should be a consideration, but the White Sox thought they have pretty much solved his control problems. Obviously, that wasn't the case last night. I'd question why they thought they'd solved that given that even before last night he had a BB/9 that would've been dead last in the majors last year out of the 206 pitchers that threw more that 50 innings.

"oh hey a baseball what's that doing there better not do anything" - Scott Downs

Lester throws exactly one strike, strikes out Viciedo. Welcome back, Dayan.

QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 08:32 PM) BABIP? Batting average on balls in play. Essentially 2 out of every 3 balls he's been putting in play have been landing for hits. He's on an incredibly lucky streak, it won't last.

QUOTE (Hawkfan @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 08:30 PM) I'm buying on flowers. Anybody else? Some rival exec hopefully

Tyler Flowers BABIP update: .667

Belisario's been good outside of that one disastrous outing. EDIT: Just looked at his game log. Well, decent.

Dammit. Hope that gets De Aza going though.