The Ultimate Champion

Bronson Arroyo (37) Scott Baker (32) Erik Bedard (35) A.J. Burnett (37) Chris Capuano (35) Bruce Chen (37) Freddy Garcia (37) Jon Garland (34) Matt Garza (30) Jason Hammel (31) Tommy Hanson (27) Aaron Harang (36) Ubaldo Jimenez (30) Jair Jurrjens (28) Jeff Karstens (31) Paul Maholm (32) Jason Marquis (35) Daisuke Matsuzaka (33) James McDonald (29) Jeff Niemann (31) Roy Oswalt (35) Clayton Richard (30) Ervin Santana (31) Johan Santana (34) Joe Saunders (33) Jake Westbrook (36) Jerome Williams (32) Suk-Min Yoon (27) Barry Zito (36) That's MLBTR's list

QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 07:10 PM) Couldn't agree more regarding listening to Hahn speak. KW drove me nuts with his smirks and ridiculously measured responses. It was amazing how many words he could cram into one sentence that conveyed so little (and fairly useless) information. His statements were frequently so loaded to make everyone think he was working on something ridiculously special and revolutionary. I loved Kenny, but he was a dick very often. Hahn is direct and non-dickish. Both are geniuses & we're lucky to have them.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 04:16 PM) Agreed. I think this Tanaka thing has gotten to people's heads. We're still in rebuild mode, it's just that Tanaka is the very specific type of player that fits into the context of a rebuild (costs no prospects, is very talented, is young). No reason to go extending that concept to players that don't match those conditions. We're not that good yet. Let's say the Sox have this option: 3-way trade: Team A trades: $100M cash Team A receives: 4 Sox prospects Sox trade: 4 prospects Sox receive: 6 years of Tanaka at an average salary that is comparable to a 6-year arbitration salary Rakuten Golden Eagles trade: 6 years of Tanaka at an average salary that is comparable to a 6-year arbitration salary Rakuten Golden Eagles receive: $100M cash Do the Sox make that deal? I think it's very possible they do. A Castro deal would be the same idea as above. You're still getting something that you think is going to help long-term. $$$$ and payroll space is one type of resource, prospects are another. If you can use both however then that is preferable since you don't go too far into one extreme or the other, i.e. tons of bad contracts and little wiggle room or a barren farm system.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 04:04 PM) I'm right there with you. Those last 3-5 years just scare me. As long as there is some sort of team option, player option, mutual option, full opt-out, limited NTC, or no NTC at all during or following the first 3-4 years then there is at least *some chance* you can get out of that deal before all the bad stuff starts happening. Even overpaying this guy & then dumping the deal and getting back a few spects after 2016 would be a huge gain for the organization most likely, not just the spects and the on-field performance, but it helps re-open the Japanese market, helps sell tickets, etc. Can we get that deal? Who knows. I know for sure though that if we give him 3 years guaranteed with a player opt out after Year 3, if he looks really good in years 1+2 I'm trading him before that third year at any cost, dumping the salary, and no way am I giving him another 6-7 year deal. Tanaka would be nice to have & he is going to get a deal that benefits himself to a great degree, but still the goal is to make the White Sox better and nothing else.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 02:59 PM) Considering that bet is dependent on Tanaka, should just bet the 20 to 1 that the Sox land Tanaka. A lot safer odds and only one thing needs to go right. I put 5 down. Take the parlay where Sox get Tanaka and win the pennant both.

It's 100% talent level and 0% league IMO. The only thing competition is used for I would imagine is to judge how the player reacts under less-than-ideal circumstances i.e. when under pressure by a count, situation, etc. Teams look for pure talent but also other things like poise, competitive fire, things that would suggest that a player would or would not be able to deal with the struggles that are part of the MLB game and part of the development of any MLB player. So a good portion of the price teams will pay on Tanaka is related to the talent he possesses and his mental make-up. Another good portion of that total has to deal with the fact that he is seen as MLB-ready because everything is very advanced. The remaining total of what his price will be is all about player age, the lack of draft pick cost, the fact that the signing does not come out of any draft or INTL signing budget, and the posting system process itself ($20M max). Compounding things further is the fact that this process isn't slotted at all nor are rights acquired by any specific team meaning that teams are capable of bidding against each other without any sort of cap or ceiling. If you add up what the Cubs have given to Soler & Conception alone in one offseason, and you look for other examples around the league - the guys who were nowhere near MLB-ready - you see right away that there is a huge % based value attached to the no draft pick cost, no specific budget cost, etc. I imagine one day soon the FanGraphs people or someone like that will attempt to break down the costs and put a % based value on this stuff and come up with a somewhat reasonable method of predicting an open market signing out of Japan or Cuba based on a number of factors. And whatever that would be, when you break down what you're actually paying for on-field value, it's only a portion of the cost and maybe an underwhelming portion of what the cost should be.

Well the high velocity means that if Coop takes something off it for control purposes he's still going to be working with Major League velocity. I wonder if this guy has any kind of secondary pitch.

Kenny is a ninja, Hahn is a samurai. Dunn is a big fat piece of sushi & our entire lineup of hitting coaches might as well be speaking Japanese since nobody listens to them anyway. We're clearly the fit here.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 01:49 PM) When'd they get this Robles fellow? He looks really intriguing. His wiki says he can get it up there at 97 and his change is considered a plus pitch by some. We were both thinking same thing, same time. WHOA.

Who is Mauricio Robles, what does he have, and is there a chance he can be a serviceable lefty specialist? If so that might be the most interesting name on that list.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 01:28 PM) hahaha....The Yes Network using Tom Loxas....how low can you go Cubs fans using the report to verify the same dumb source is even lower. BTW if Tanaka doesn't sign here then it means he probably sucks & is going to blow out his arm, which makes it a good thing that we'd have avoided the deal.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 01:17 PM) The odds of the Sox getting Tanaka are very, very small. I'd call it 5% or less. I'd say the odds of us getting him are more like 70% if he decides not to go to LAD or Yankees! Don't be such a downer dude. Hahn's got this. Here's how I would rank our chances vs. our competitors in bar graph form: Theo: 8=> Cashman: 8=====> Magic Johnson: 8==================> Towers: 8============> Kenny & Rick: 8==============================================>~~~~~~~~

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 01:02 PM) Player options for that amount of money are such a disaster no matter what. If he sucks you're saddled with 25 million. If he's good he's opting out. Nothing is likely to work out for the team. I'd go maybe one option but definitely not 2. Agree. That deal could be horrible. But getting through 150+ pages of this thing with no Tanaka would be equally horrible (okay not really).

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 12:57 PM) This is what I am thinking to. Except for the fact he'd only be making 10 mil next year. I'd prefer something more front loaded but obviously that isn't then norm in baseball. Our FO probably needs a little help in the first year of this deal with Dunn & the INTL bonus/draft stuff. We should have more payroll space next year and if we're a better team in 2014 then we won't get the same draft & signing bonus pool amounts. Front loaded would be great though, go Marlins style and trade the deal for value later on. Watch the attendance & ticket sales & concessions spike, then as things wane make a trade & get out of the remainder of the deal.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 12:55 PM) 14 $10M 15 $25M 16 $25M 17 $25M 18 $25M PO 19 $25M PO Throw this at them Ricky boy, 6 years $130M with opt-outs after Year 4 & Year 5 Sox aren't retracting their offer, they're retracting their foreskin & getting ready to do some damage. OR Offer them this: 14 $20M - Full NTC 15 $20M - Full NTC 16 $25M - Partial NTC 17 $26M - Zero trade protection 18 $27M Player opt-out 19 $27M Player opt-out Sox give out $145M over 6 years but get to dump his deal during Year 3 & 4 if they are uncomfortable with the risk. Sox blow the Yankers out of the water, Dodgers can't dodge Kenny-Hahn's massive dong. Cubs don't even have a chance.

14 $10M 15 $25M 16 $25M 17 $25M 18 $25M PO 19 $25M PO Throw this at them Ricky boy, 6 years $130M with opt-outs after Year 4 & Year 5 Sox aren't retracting their offer, they're retracting their foreskin & getting ready to do some damage.

If he's bad but talented you keep him, see if he can be mediocre. If he's mediocre but talented you keep him, see if he can become good. If he's good and talented but doesn't have jaw-dropping stuff then you trade him, because his value can't be higher. And if he's good and does have jaw-dropping stuff then you still trade him but for a zillion prospects, because you're rebuilding, and that's what rebuilding teams are supposed to do. And then when you lose you fire your manager. Here we have the makings of the Tampa Bay Rays Version 2.0

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 20, 2014 -> 08:58 PM) "still in the mix" means "they aren't telling me s*** beyond 'he didn't tell us to f*** off and we won't be telling our little minions like you more than that'" Our beat guys aren't running around like chickens with their heads cut off. That is a good thing. Part of the Sox pitch is probably team environment, family atmosphere, respect and privacy. These are all good things to offer. I doubt we get him, but I also doubt he dislikes our offer. I could believe that if he weighed it all out in terms of risk, pressure, market size (not too small but not too big), etc. that we offer the best fit. But I can't imagine the Sox offering the most lucrative and player-friendly, f*** the team type of contract, and in the end I think that's what gets him. If the money is equal and he wants pride, I think it's the Yanks. If it's winning in 2014 and happy LA Japanese wife super popstar stuff, it's LA.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jan 20, 2014 -> 08:31 PM) Anyone with half a brain should be guessing LA. Thats not insight, thats just not being marginally retarded. It may not be LA, but I could post "My sources say LA" and be pretty confident Im going to wake up right Weds. Uh no. Not at all. Not even close. The Yankees are desperate for another pitcher and have signed other Japanese players in the past. They currently have Ichiro, the most successful Japanese player ever, and the Yankees won a title with Hideki Matsui who when he came over was the greatest Japanese hitter of all time. Most people should be guessing Yankees or Dodgers, and they are.

^Further, no matter where Tanaka signs, one would imagine she'd be traveling with Tanaka quite a bit anyway. I'm sure her agent and personal staff can arrange meetings on that basis. She's unlikely going to be stationary no matter where she "lives" for a few months per year.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jan 20, 2014 -> 05:40 PM) How many artists record in LA? How many non-American stars try and break into the American movies/music/etc. Its just nonsense to dismiss it. It may be a reason, it may not be a reason, but if you are in the Entertainment industry, LA is a much better location than Chicago. I love Chicago, I hate LA, but those are the facts and theres no point in posting on a message board if we arent going to be honest with ourselves. They can have their own f***ing studio. They can fly out anyone they like whenever they like. Most communication doesn't even take place face to face anymore, and when it is necessary, not much of a barrier when you're making $20M per year PLUS whatever you had before that.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2014 -> 05:49 PM) They would be spending the winter in Japan. It is really hard to beat Chicago in the summer with all it has to offer. Even Charles Barkley refers to Chicago as the greatest summer city in the US, and Chicago usually wins favorite city when they ask MLB players. As a resident, I agree, Chicago sucks in the winter. This is a really good point. The best parts of the warm weather cities they aren't going to see anyway.

If you notice it actually looks like Q's MLB numbers have been trending "down" toward those he put up in AA and prior to that, what he put up in A+. If this guy keeps getting better and we sell now, we're not selling high, we're selling waaaaay f***ing low.

Age 17: 5.1IP in VESL Age 18: DNP Age 19: 55IP in DOSL Age 20: 50.1IP in DOSL Age 21: 38.2 IP combined between Rk & A Age 22: 102IP in A+ with a 1.118 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 3.14 K/BB Age 23: 48.2IP in AA with a 1.171 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 2.93 K/BB 136.1IP in MLB with a 1.350 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.93 K/BB 185IP total between AA & MLB Age 23: 200.0IP in MLB with a 1.220 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.93 K/BB Okay so where's this regression going to come from?

But Mrs. Tanaka is still uprooting her entire life to come overseas and support her husband. I still think that's the biggest thing. Who says she isn't overly excited about this opportunity? Besides, who f***in cares. Masahiro san is the one making decisions & this is exactly why he was so recently at the party of the honorable Mr. Tazakazi.