The Ultimate Champion

If the choice is Tanaka at $20M per and 6-8 years I think you just fold your cards and go home. The odds of that working out are going to be pretty small because the deal is going to likely be at its greatest value in the early going (when the Sox are still building) and at its least value near the end, when the Sox should be in their contention window. There is also a potentially catastrophic consequence to be seen should the Sox go all in for Tanaka, get him, and then decide to "rush" this rebuilding thing. While keeping the losing to a minimum is preferable, you should never rush through this. The Sox have been asked to rebuilt by their fanbase for much of the last 10 years, off and on. All this current s***tiness is also a veiled opportunity to make the necessary moves to be a contender for a long time into the future. Probably to compete against the Twins; we probably don't want to watch the Twins put us to shame by going through their rebuild properly and then spanking us like children as soon as we're good enough to compete for a division. That already happened & it is not fun. The Sox are good at developing pitching. They are also good at pulling near-MLB ready projects out of other organizations. I know this may sound strange, but Masato Tanaka is *not* the only guy on the planet with 2 very good pitches plus a third pitch. The reality in MLB is that 3 very good pitches *can* make you an ace, or not, but there is at least potential there. I believe there are players out there the Sox can acquire who they also believe can develop 2 potentially dominant offerings plus a solid third pitch, and maybe we can get one of those guys. It's not like we haven't done it before. And as far as the money goes, if the Sox do indeed have $20M per to offer right now, it's better to not offer that out than it is to remove $20M worth of payroll flexibility per season during our next contention window in the hope that we'll still be getting the value we need when we actually need it on the field. Lastly, per Cot's Baseball Contracts, here is a list of the largest contracts given out in total value, listed at $120M or greater. This is probably a pretty comparable list for Tanaka given the number of years being offered as well as the annual value. Look at these contracts & decide how many of them you would actually be comfortable with - remember that a lot of these didn't work out so great - and consider that these are also MLB-proven players. Tanaka has age going for him, but just about everything else is going to be a negative, from the fact he's unproven to the fact that he throws a splitter to workload etc. 1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) 3. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) . . . Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23) 5. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) 6. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) 7. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) 8. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) 9. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) . . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19) 11. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19) 12. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21) 13. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15) 14. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08) . . . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19) 16. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20) 17. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18) 18. Jacoby Ellsbury, $153,000,000 (2014-20) 19. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15) 20. Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18) 21. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18) 22. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17) 23. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11) 24. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20) 25. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13) 26. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14) 27. Shin-Shoo Choo, $130,000,000 (2014-20) 28. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17) 29. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13) . . . Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14) . . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17) 32. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16) . . . Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17) 34. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16) 35. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08) 36. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08) . . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16) . . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15) . . . Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000 (2015-22)

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 08:30 PM) Choo took the biggest post - tax offer. Cliff Lee still should have signed with the Rangers.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 10:27 PM) Maybe Jason Werth went to the Nationals because he was a history buff, but probably not Seems like a pretty safe default position to take that players go where they're paid the most (or very close). So the burden of proof is on the one claiming that they signed for other reasons. Since Choo went to the place where he got the most money, I'd say it's more evidence in support of the $$$$ camp. He probably stood at the foot of the *Washington Monument wondering whether or not he could make a taller monument himself by changing his contracted earnings into single dollar bills and stacking them on top of each other. *oops I'm no f***in history buff either

The Fundamentals Deck would make a great bathhouse & the Sox Pride Crew would make great geisha girls. And at that point I couldn't really give a f*** about Tanaka anyway.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 04:47 PM) This is 18-19 year old Frank Thomas This is ~27/28 year old Frank Thomas This is 38 year old Frank Thomas This is 44 year old Frank Thomas Here is a freak of nature, huge for his whole life, saw his waistline expand while the rest of him stayed the same, and had a pretty benign career in terms of really suspicious events. Was phenomenal, then started missing time from injuries as he got to around age 30, started getting really slow and dealing with more injuries, kept chugging along while becoming more one-dimensional and flawed as a player. By the time he turned 40, he wasn't fit to be a DH in the MLB anymore. He was also a lot less...fit. But hey, at least he's not as fat as Tony Gwynn Damn I wondering where Tony Gwynn Jr. went.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 03:39 PM) ^^^ this. Garza will only cost cash and not picks. A perfect White Sox scenario if you ask me. Agree & I'm on that bandwagon too. Garza has a much lesser potential of hurting us, assuming it's 4 years or less. Of course the flip side is that whoever loses big on Tanaka - and the DBacks & Yankees seem to best fit this description IMO should he say, go to the Dodgers - is going to definitely want to sign the #2 guy out there. And IMO that's Garza, and 5 years or more, if that's on the table, I'm not touching that.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 03:29 PM) I don't think there's any way the Yankees don't end up with him, unless he has some deep-seeded personal distaste for the franchise. To me, this is an exact mirror of the WS/Abreu situation -- no one needs him more, and they've got the money to outbid everyone if they want. On paper, he's really a perfect fit for them. They need high-ceiling youth extra badly, and they need a #2 starter extra badly. Maybe the Dodgers could spend as much, but they don't need him nearly as much. The Dodgers and Yankees both could sign both Tanaka and one of Scherzer/Price. Re: all the lux tax talk, even in spite of the penalties incurred they aren't nearly as severe as those handed out in the NBA & from a revenue sharing perspective, and also from a QO & arbitration perspective (given how these salaries are calculated/projected) I can't see the commissioner's office or especially the player's association being all too concerned about either the Dodgers or Yankees violating the rules so long as they pay the penalties. Also as an aside I'm not sure how the lux tax counts on salaries paid to players performing on other teams. For example, the Dodgers could eat 40% of Either and 50% of Crawford and trade those guys, and I'm not sure if what they would be paying out to the other team would count against the lux tax, and if so, whether 100% of each dollar would count or just a smaller %.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 03:33 PM) Maybe him listing his preferred spots is a ploy towards the White Sox to offer more money? A guy can dream right? haha LA geographically makes sense when he makes his non-stop flight back to Japan. NY/Boston probably makes more sense in terms of market size and American baseball televised in Japan. IMO it would take something EXTREMELY creative and potentially also extremely risky to keep this guy from going to the Yankees or Dodgers. He can follow Nomo in LA & geographically it's a great place. He can follow Matsui in NY. We're way on the outside looking in on this one. I think it's cool that we're at least making some kind of effort though. I like that mentality.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 03:23 PM) Wait, didn't TX make a qualifying offer? Not that I want him anyway. Cubs traded him. Traded players (mid-season) don't bring back picks anymore under the new CBA because you can't offer the QO.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 03:15 PM) Why not give him something like a 7 year deal, at $15 or 16 Million per year, with an opt out for him, after 4 or 5 years? When he's 30, if he can get a bigger contract, he'd be free to take it, but still have the security of the 7 year guarantee. The Sox have done this kind of deal before. Albert Belle was signed with an opt out. This strategy of giving the big contracts to players during their prime is very smart. The common practice of committing big salary obligations to guys, when they are past their prime, and even "old", makes little sense. I think most agree that teams who have done that with free agents like Pujols, Cano, Hamilton and so many more, are going to regret those contracts one day. I think this is probably exactly what the Yankees will offer him. In fact, IMO this might prove to be just about perfectly accurate. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he ends up signing a 7 year deal at a $16M per average with a player opt-out smack dab in the middle of it & with absolutely no protection given to the team. I'd add the full NTC too. And maybe it ends up more like $17M per.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 02:52 PM) see the above post. Eaton is absolutely equal or most likely above Pods in the "offensive threat" category. Ugh. Right. Go back to all the Flowers is better than AJ posts for another version of this. Or Fields over Crede, whatever. On paper ceilings look beautiful, then s*** happens. Pods stole 70 bases in a single season & stole a combined 212 bases during a 4 consecutive season period *in the Major Leagues.* He also battled injuries. He was also, like Eaton, a CF prospect with questions who had to move to LF because he lacked arm strength for the position. Whatever his perfect world on-paper ceiling was it was certainly much higher than what he actually accomplished, and when you look at what he actually accomplished he did quite a bit, much more than most OF prospects who make it to the MLB level. Whatever you think Eaton's ceiling is, get ready to be disappointed because it's pretty unlikely you're going to get it. And if at the end of the day Eaton puts up a career similar to what Pods has done, then he's been worth trading for & worth starting. As far as that projection crap go back and look at our wonderful history of pre-season prospect projections, where guys like Flowers and Anthony Carter and Jon Link etc. play important roles on the team. It means nothing. The DBacks traded a very good LHSP prospect to upgrade over him with a butcher of a K machine in LF, looking for power. Now while it may be easy to say the DBacks are stupid & we're geniuses, I think it's much likelier that they actually know to evaluate their own players & that your expectations of Eaton are unrealistically high.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 02:34 PM) What makes you say "poor man's" Pods? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/podsesc01.shtml Scotty Pods has quietly had a pretty nice career & has a .281/.339/.379 career line. If it weren't for all the injuries he would have made a lot more money than he did. I say a poor man's Pods in relation to Eaton's offensive value as a weapon at the top of the order (not nearly the threat of a prime Pods). But given how Pods was just a LF, if Eaton can be a solid defensive CF and generally put up the type of overall numbers Pods has done then I'd say we'll be happy with this trade.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 02:27 PM) I'd also like to point out that rankings generally don't mean too much. Remind me where Buehrle, Piazza and Pujols were drafted? This isn't a very good argument because when you start comparing the success rates of prospects who were picked late to prospects selected in higher rounds you see a pretty big difference to say the least. Further, Buehrle was draft-and-follow and received a bonus of a high round pick. Pujols was 13th round, but a lot of that had to do with CC. Piazza was really more of the find, but you don't always need to look to the draft to find these "extreme" examples because they show up elsewhere too. Just because the Red Sox were able to sign David Ortiz in FA doesn't mean these guys are going to be out there every year. And just because the Twins got Johan Santana in the Rule-5 doesn't mean it's likely for that to happen again sometime over the next decade. I agree that rankings don't mean as much though. They are very subjective and often based on very little information. Prospect A may have been researched a lot & there is lots of info on him, while prospect B you have little video on, your "scout scource" happened to not like very much, and you just have stats, so you rate Prospect A highly & Prospect B doesn't make your list. Maybe the two aren't that far apart however & the ranking looks poor as a result. Further, the MLB playing field is the ultimate proving ground, nothing else, and as long as you get there and perform then it doesn't matter how talented you are or look or what your age is. But with that said, every prospect generally starts out as someone with one or two, and maybe several, major holes in their games along with a total lack of experience. Talent and sheer ability have to be taken into consideration and weighted appropriately. The more talented, higher ceiling guys are going to be considered the better prospects. And for good reason.

QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 02:20 PM) Ah please, thats one of the worst arguments you can use. Look at where Pujols was drafted, look at where Kemp was drafted, look at where Trout was drafted, etc. Where a player gets drafted doesn't matter after the fact, what matters is how they preform in the minors and what type of tools they have. I don't understand why draft position should be a part of this discussion at all. I understand the White Sox have had prospects highly ranked before. But what gets me excited about Eaton and Garcia and to a lesser extent Davidson is how they just aren't toolsy and raw players. They have shown a good feel for hitting and actually being baseball players, not athletes playing baseball (even though Garcia does seem like a great athlete). The argument this is in response to is the "better prospect" argument, which it fits well. Eaton is definitely more of an overachiever and grindier than any of these guys. He also brings a different skillset. None of this means he was a better prospect than those guys were. If so, and grindiness/overachieverness outweighed raw talent then Tyler Skaggs wouldn't have been the headliner of that Trumbo deal, it would have been Santiago as the main piece. I'm happy with the deal too even though I do like Santiago's upside (I think he's been quite underrated nationally), and I hope Eaton can be somewhat of a poor man's Scott Podsednik who can be a better defensive fit as a CF.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) I don't buy that he wouldn't come to US to be a star. He could be quietly dominant in Japan. Why come here if not wanting everyone to know you are the best? I think the challenge is more about proving he can pitch among the greats in MLB. They don't have that same "kick your own mother down a flight of stairs" type of mentality over there. If winning and doing so with pride is most important to him, I imagine he will be a Yankee. Where he will also be a teammate of Ichiro whose spot seems a lot more secure now with the DFAing of Venon Wells.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 02:01 PM) I don't think Beckham ever was because his rookie status was gone by the time thatthe next prospect lists came out. IIRC he was in the top-half of lists following his draft year and heading into the following season. He didn't stay there long however. That period where we had Beckham, Hudson, Flowers, Viciedo, Poreda, and Jordan Danks all garnering attention (Dexter Carter as well) made things look pretty bright. The system was still kind of barren outside of those guys though. And thank God for that Peavy trade.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 01:42 PM) Anderson never hit the way Eaton has. In AAA Anderson had a high OPS of .827 Eaton? .995 in AAA They're worlds apart. And guess what? Sweeney turned into a valuable and productive major leaguer! Brian Anderson had legitimate power potential and was a sure bet CF defensively with an arm and range. A much more talented & toolsy player than Eaton, regardless of whatever their minor league statistics say. Anderson was a total bust. He was taken 15th overall and was not a reach. Sweeney was also a total bust. He was perhaps the most exciting prospect in the system due to the sweet stroke and of course the power potential which never came. Sweeney fell to his absolute floor in the Majors. Sweeney was taken 52nd overall and that wasn't a reach either. Let's temper the Eaton excitement please. He's a 19th round rick (571 overall) who was taken I believe as a junior in college and that was the first time he was ever drafted. He's a lot like Santiago, an overachiever type who continued to fight his way up levels, but let's not pretend he's all super toolsy and has the kind of upside that your average highly-ranked prospect has. If he's a solid starting CF for us then we've done very well but it's not like this guy is going to be hitting the ball out of the park anytime soon or is considered a sure-fire bet to stick in CF.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 11:44 AM) You should go back and check where they were ranked as prospects on their Baseball-Reference pages. You will be in for a surprise. It makes you wonder what the Sox would have been able to receive had they traded Borchard, Wright, Rauch, etc. at the heights of their values as prospects. Of course, back then prospects weren't as overvalued as they are now.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 11:42 AM) NONE of those guys were ever ranked or touted like Garcia, Eaton and Davidson. You just think that because you're a white sox fan. If you weren't you'd have never heard of any of those guys. Brian Anderson & Ryan Sweeney both were better prospects than Eaton & Davidson. So was arguably Jeremy Reed who was near MLB-ready when Kenny traded him. Garcia has a lot of ability, but just last June I was getting s*** from this very board proposing Reed for Garcia straight-up. Half this board didn't even like the guy a month before we acquired him. Also Josh Fields made a huge impression when he got here. He looked like a possible 40HR guy. Kenny has kept a lot of players rated as high or higher than these guys. Lots of them. He once helped develop the best system in baseball for the Sox, and most of those prospects that inflated the value of the system didn't turn into anything.

Even a diminished Danks as a #4, being a lefty, is probably going to be about market value by the end of his deal if things keep going as they have been. And if not, and if so much good, pre-arb pitching enters the game that back-end starters aren't going to be paid as much, then he's still probably no more than a $4-5M per over payment, which puts him in reasonable dump territory. OTOH if Danks turns it around he'll have nice value & that will be great for us.

You can't judge on results yet, but you can judge on competency, aggressiveness, and direction, i.e. making moves that needed to be made, taking action, etc. His mistakes: not trading Gavin Floyd, signing Keppinger, not getting better value out of Rios. I'll give him a pass on not dealing Crain because in the new QO era a reliever in the last year of his deal is probably more in demand mid-season; Hahn just got the short end of the stick on that because Crain would have brought in something decent had he not gotten hurt basically at the last minute. Floyd hurts, but Keppinger isn't that bad of a deal, and it isn't really going to hurt us or stop us from doing anything. And Rios could have been handled better, but the Sox needed money for Abreu so they had to dump him. Abreu is the better player so they made the right move there. In total, his mistakes probably haven't been too costly and probably aren't going to hold us back much. His good moves (based on the logic behind them & necessity in lieu of actual results): the Lindstrom signing; the Hector & Reed trades - even though both Eaton and Davidson have some large question marks, the fact that both are MLB ready is a positive, and it is always nice to trade a quality/average closer for a starting position player; the Abreu signing which right now looks good but could be great; the Peavy signing - which isn't a great move IMO because I credit Peavy for that deal mostly (he left a lot of money on the table) but still a good move by Hahn to stick with the negotiations and not give up; the Peavy trade was a good move; also axing Manto as soon as he felt a change was necessary, that's a good move and a welcome departure from the Ozzie years where coaches who weren't getting through were kept around too long; there may be more that I am forgetting His great/potentially franchise-altering moves: the Sale extension; maybe the Abreu signing ends up here as well Overall I'd say that he's due at least a B and maybe as high as an A just based on getting done what needed to be done. He's made a few mistakes but they are more on the small side, and the biggest move he's made (extending Sale) far outweighs any of the mistakes. I like how he has been direct with the fans and media, not so coy like KW, and he's been active & aggressive enough to command respect & establish his leadership of the organization. I particularly like the handling of the Manto situation: he acted swiftly and got it done without airing any dirty laundry/bringing in unnecessary attention. Some of these trades aren't going to work out, but the logical behind the moves were sound and the type of moves that have been made were necessary. I'm not going to shout out that he deserves at least an A and maybe an A+ because that's completely unrealistic; some of these decisions we're probably not going to be happy about in the long run. But there are 3 main aspects of the GM job as far as it relates to the on-field product: putting MLB talent on the field, including making the necessary moves to acquire that talent; putting the right coaching staff/personnel around that talent in order for it to meet or exceed expectations; and finally accumulating the individual player statistics and win-loss records necessary for a long-term winning organization. We don't know what the statisitics and win-loss record is going to be over the next several seasons, so that's inconclusive & we can't just give Hahn an A+ because we're psychic, but as far as making the moves to bring in talent while using the resources available, and as increasing the value of some of our best assets (Sale, keeping then trading Peavy when he looked out the door), and as far as managing his coaching staff, etc. I think Hahn has done well.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 9, 2014 -> 05:15 PM) I find it funny that since you deem Tanaka a pipe dream and then go on and advise people to bump the Castro thread. We can make that deal with the Astros if we want to. We may have to get a little crazy, but that's doable. OTOH we could offer Tanaka something stupid and still be beaten down by 2-4 other clubs.

QUOTE (Springfield SoxFan @ Jan 9, 2014 -> 04:58 PM) Not often that you get Sox tidbits from Sneed, but check out the end of this column about KW and Thomas. KW making some international trips.... http://www.suntimes.com/news/sneed/2484383...ll-of-fame.html Thoughts and speculation? He's just doing his job. Kenny has gone back to his scouting/player development roots a bit with his promotion. Funny how much hate Kenny got here and how much "better" everything is going to be under Hahn, but yet Kenny was the farm director the last time the Sox had a highly-ranked farm system & he's going to provide a lot more input on our system now than he had in the past. And IMO that's a good thing. May is/was in Australia, so he's probably watching that guy and/or dealing with something related to that team. We're maxing out our INTL budget next year & Kenny's certainly down there watching guys and talking to people. Tanaka will be in LA, but I wouldn't be shocked if Kenny's talking to the Dodgers too. I bet Kenny would love to get Kemp in here (obviously a subsidized version) and who knows what else? Dee Gordon is available I'm sure, he was highly rated recently and is a SS. Kenny's just out there gathering intelligence & laying groundwork for things.

Actually a 4-year, $80M deal (not including posting) with Seattle would probably be the best thing Tanaka could do for himself. He'd put himself into an appropriate cultural & pitching environment and guarantee his family enough money for life, and then, if he likes it and wants to stay, and proves he is good enough, then he'll put himself into position for a massive, long-term FA contract. If Seattle wanted to do something like that, even if we were willing to match, given the Cell's reputation I doubt we'd have a chance. And we're certainly not getting into 6-8 year territory at the annual salaries teams like the Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers are going to consider. Just a pipe dream. Time to bump the Castro thread again IMO, or talk more about DeAza. I actually think it's likelier that the Sox get back salary from another team as a consequence of their signing of Tanaka than it is the Sox sign Tanaka themselves.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 9, 2014 -> 04:27 PM) That's because players themselves are elastic non-necessary monopolies. They are each selling their very own, individual services. In the free agent market, teams have very, very little leverage when bidding on players, while the player has all kinds of leverage. The players themselves can overprice themselves from the market, and teams do not need to bid on their services, as most of these types are easily substitutable, but the relative utility of the players varies greatly and as the player's utility increases, their value increases as well and typically the overall value required to buy or retain those services is exponential (a below average starting pitcher can be had for 1 year, $5 million while an ace caliber starting pitcher may require $150 million to sign). If the White Sox say to Masahiro Tanaka "We are willing to sign you to a $120 million contract over 6 years, but we want to be able to get out of the deal after 4 years at a total of $80 million if we are not happy with your production," the Yankees will come in and say "We are willing to sign you to a $120 million contract, no strings attached." Who is he going to sign for? Beyond that, if Tanaka says "I want the ability to opt out after 4 years," the Yankees may bow out but the Mariners could surely come in and say "That's perfectly fine, we believe you are a great pitcher and that we will be able to resign you if you choose to do so." This is why you will not be able to build in the out clause for the White Sox. You can surely do so for Tanaka. I think in general though some teams are a little too happy to hand out these deals. I mean, did the Yanks *really* have to give CC an opt-out to sign him at the absolute max of what his market rate could possibly be? Even more, did the Rangers *have* to get Elvis Andrus so badly that they had to include that clause? I agree though, someone will come in and guaranteed a ton of years and money. The only positive for Tanaka over those kinds of deals is that if the Sox guarantee a lot of $$ in the first 3 years and then let him him opt into arbitration, it sets him into arbitration at a salary height that would be comparable to free agency and puts him on a course for FA in 6 years. I don't think that's enough though. I think any shorter deal would have to be a lot of money up front with probably a player opt-out after 3 years, or just a no-strings-attached 3 or 4 year deal ala Oakland signing Cespedes. It would be a gamble for Tanaka to take certainly, but one that for all we know could have him well under 30 years of age and negotiating a 10-year, $300M+ contract in free agency. Not that it would happen, but as an MLB-proven FA ace under 30 and open to all 30 teams without deadlines or posting fees (although likely a draft pick as the cost) he could stand to earn a hell of a lot more money than anything he'll see even from the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels or Theo right now. For the Sox, a deal like that above would be great because 1) they would have an out should things go bad, and 2) they should have a feel after year 2 as to whether or not they could/should re-sign him, which would then allow them to make a trade and convert some of his value into prospects.