The Ultimate Champion

The Torii Hunter signing, another big miss moment. There was someone else KW missed on too, I believe that same year... a Japanese player too, Fukudome. Glad we missed on that one? Remember him? He was on our team. I know, I forgot about that too.

Also not us, but Eric Bedard to the Cubs for Prior was one of those deals that were rumored as if they were going to happen but never did. And both Sox fans and Cub fans were sitting around waiting for Brian Roberts forever.... didn't happen.

I was at WSI during the Miguel Cabrera thing. The package over there, the final deal, was Gio + Danks + Fields (fresh off his rookie performance) + Sweeney. That was a nice package back then, but now that's definitely a haul. Tigers took DTrain though and gave up 6 players. I never liked Miller, but Maybin was one of these all-world type of prospects (who never became anything much obviously). They gave up some other interesting players, i.e. I believe Euglolio Cruz or some s*** like that, a big armed 100mph closing candidate who didn't do anything. The Marlins definitely should have taken our deal. And had they, I wonder if the Sox would have been willing to go to the immediate mega deal extension that the Tigers gave out. It would have been atypical of the Sox to say the least, but would have in hindsight been a terrific move.

Ah, yes.... that year's version of Edwin Jackson for Dunn or Jermaine Dye for Homer Bailey. I remember people thinking that thing was done.

With the offspeed stuff, Big Bad Bobby wouldn't have to light the gun on fire to be an effective reliever anyway.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 04:11 PM) Oh yeah and if you're looking for a FA it's the Johnny Damon thread and not close. What about the 3-way where we got Damon, the Red Sox got Maggs, and I think someone else got Nomar can't remember who. Nomar went to the Cubs IIRC shortly after that.

'05 was also Jose Contreras + Uribe to the Marlins Talk for a while too. Thank GOD that never happened. Also this site was Angels talk for a long time too. Brandon Wood Chone Figgins Ervin Santana Howie Kendrick Erick Aybar Casey Kotchman Gary Matthews, Jr. in a salary dump etc. All of these guys were at one time involved in some sort of rumored Paulie or Crede deal.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) If J. R. was willing to support a team payroll of over $100 million for a couple of years, before the new TV money, why should anyone doubt that he would be willing to go there again? The Sox are factoring in the draft and INTL signing period budgets into payroll. Also, they're not necessarily trying to go cheap, they are instead trying to go young and maximize team control. They would I'm sure gladly payout more of the budget to acquire more of what they are looking for, but the draft and INTL period plus Cuba and Japan signings are the main ways of doing that. The only other options (which I believe the Sox will certainly explore if they don't sign Tanaka) are to either take back salary in exchange for a prospect, take back a long-term player at a higher salary than desired in order to keep the prospects it would cost to acquire that player otherwise, or eat money in a deal where a vet (Dunn please for the love of God) goes out and something underwhelming now but still potentially valuable going forward comes back. QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) He's not getting any younger, and I'm sure that he sees an opportunity for the Sox to be "Chicago's team", while the Cubs rebuild. I could see this. QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) In a previous thread, I asserted that it was easier to assess the prospects of a pitcher than a hitter, largely because a pitchers velocity, movement and location can be accurately measured, unlike a hitter's ability to hit MLB level pitching, which can only be determined after facing it. Tanaka's stuff has been measured, metered and assessed to a sufficient degree to strongly indicate that he will be an "Ace" quality starter. I agree, I think it's a lot easier to know what you're going to get from a pitcher than a hitter. The game is built on pitching and scouting and defensive strategies are an increasing part of the game. QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) If they gave a hitter, who had never faced U. S. professional competition 6 years and $68 Million, it shouldn't be difficult to assume that they would give a similarly untested pitcher, a long term deal at $20 Million per year, with an opt out after 4 or 5 years. I could see this too if they think he's an ace. Especially if they think it opens up new revenue sources. QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) The fact that Abreu has been acquired also increases the likelihood that the Sox are ready to compete, which also makes the gamble on Tanaka a better one than the gamble that had to be made on Abreu. Each additional piece of the rebuilding puzzle increases the prospects of this team to compete. Now that the Sox have added Garcia, Abreu, Eaton and Davidson, the acquisition of a big piece such as Tanaka makes more sense. The Sox aren't ready to compete at all. Someone in that list I'd almost guarantee is going to be a bust. Someone else probably will become a lot less than people think he'll be. Personally I'll bet that Eaton is an on-and-off the DL average CF who we can't rely on, Davidson is probably the bust, Avi is the good one, Abreu is the force. Just my own guesses, which would vary person to person, but not all of these moves are going to work out. And, we'll probably need 2 evaluation years at least on all of these guys before we decide if they are definitely a long term piece or not. QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) Maybe J. R. and the front office are convinced that Tanaka would be the final significant piece to put this quick rebuild on the field ready to compete, and get the fan base excited. Hey, it would excite me. How about you? I highly doubt that, but I do believe JR could view Tanaka as a benefit to them in many ways, including the team's future.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 09:37 AM) I'd honestly rather have our payroll than the Yankees or Dodgers. Having too much cash is how you get the A-Rod's of the world on your team. The great thing about relying on cheaper players versus marquee free agents signed at market value is that when you make mistakes with cheap players you can make them go away, but when you make mistakes with the free agents you have to keep them around. I imagine if you took an average high payroll team and looked at it in a pie chart format, a good chunk of that yearly salary commitment and a good chunk of those total guaranteed dollars could be devoted to a category called "dead weight." It would be interesting to measure the value of say Beckett + Crawford + Gonzalez + Either + Kemp + League right now in terms of on field value in salary and then compare that amount to their contracts, and then compare that dead weight figure to the asking price of someone like Tanaka.

I also agree with Porkchop, nice post. I can see it fair as no one owes anyone anything. But with that said it would be nice to have Bobby back here.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 09:43 AM) The reason I'd be OK with it is because the Sox doctors could then oversee his rehab, making sure everything's going fine. If Jenks handled his money well at all, he will need absolutely no help handling the medical bills. The structure of a team rehab program and the value of an entire organization's support are going to be worth a lot more than the cost of the bills most likely & not something he could easily buy anyway.

Also on all of those links I posted, only 5 times has a Sox batter been predicted to hit 30 HR or more I guess Eaton isn't the only guy who apparently isn't a fit for the Cell

And here you have the Official Lillian All-Star team: Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3 Brown* lf .264 .342 .418 109 390 50 103 24 0 12 52 42 71 4 5 Gload* lf .304 .348 .501 122 369 50 112 27 2 14 56 26 54 1 3 Rogowski* 1b .254 .340 .379 135 464 71 118 24 2 10 53 53 104 11 9 Casanova c .253 .306 .418 80 261 29 66 13 0 10 38 19 40 0 0 Ernie Young rf 37 .246 .334 .401 101 337 43 83 16 0 12 59 40 117 1 2 Wiki Gonzalez c 34 .258 .311 .407 54 182 16 47 9 0 6 27 12 19 1 0 Jack Egbert 25 4.72 9 10 30 28 164.0 180 86 16 67 101 I personally find this one funny: 2006 Frank Thomas dh .231 .348 .456 104 342 47 79 20 0 19 61 56 82 0 1 2006 Casey Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3 ZiPS is mental masturbation without a finish. They are some of the worst and most meaningless abuses of statistics. Apparently there's nothing that weighs proven talent above minor league fodder.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2006 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2007 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...cago_white_sox/2008 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...cago_white_sox/2010 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2011 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2012 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-p...cago-white-sox/2013

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 04:06 PM) Yeah let's just ignore that whole alcohol abuse thing that management had to keep in check here. Bobby's problems leaked because the manager's son was a b****. God knows what kind of clubhouse issues players around the league have that normally are hush-hush matters. The Oney/Ozzie/Cowley trifecta was was about as bad as it gets.

What Hawk says about Bobby is absolutely true. What Bobby did for us was really huge and pretty uncommon. I'm usually one of the first people to throw out the idea of trading your closer for a SP or everyday position player/prospect if you can, but Bobby's stuff was a whole lot nastier than you average closer's stuff and his maturity level and immediate dominance at the MLB level upon call-up was something special. He for a very short time also tied the record for consecutive batters retired. He & Thornton were the two full-season bright spots in that 2006 bullpen that cost us games, and in 2007 his record along with MB's no-no were among the very few high points of that entire miserable season.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 03:52 PM) I never defended Guillens mouth but I will when it comes to Jenks. Bobby owed a lot to Ozzie and the Sox for saving his career. That said bring him back. At worst it makes us some desperately needed local headlines. He owes a lot to Kenny Williams for claiming him on waivers and calling him up to the Major League roster. Ozzie used his 25-man roster just like any manager. In fact, if anything Ozzie owes Bobby for helping lock down that bullpen after Shingo's failure and Hermanson's injury. If not for Bobby coming in getting the job done you would have had Neal Cotts or Cliff Politte taken out of setup roles where they were best suited. And Cotts specifically as closer would have made Damaso Marte the lefty setup man, while with Politte as closer you'd have been looking at Vizcaino as the setup guy from the right side and garbage most likely filling out the LR role.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 03:34 PM) I would guess and hope that they also consult Coop for high draft picks like Sale, Johnson, Beck, Danish etc. I hope so too. If they don't then they're crazy. That's like having the best mechanic in the county as a close personal friend or family member and then not even asking his advice before you run out and buy a new car. But that stuff still happens all time and you just have to wonder why. Why take on any large risk without first asking an expert who is already right there and perfectly willing and able to offer you free advice? I remember hearing both ends of the scale on this, i.e. Coop mentioned to Kenny that he wanted Matt Thornton, so Kenny got him Thornton. But Coop has also said he wasn't aware of a bunch of moves. He had no idea we'd traded for Edwin Jackson when it happened, but of course that doesn't mean that the Sox brass and Coop never had conversations about that hypothetical deal. I would hope that whenever the Sox have their offseason organizational meetings, when they look at potentially available pitchers on the FA and trade markets, if they target specific guys at that time then I hope they ask Coop for his opinion on them.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cws/former...p;vkey=news_cws Nice story & personally I'd love to see a MiLB deal for this guy when he's ready to get on the field again. I think we owe it to him just for allowing Little s*** Guillen to make those comments without immediately canning his father. Bobby did a lot of nice work for us and on a pay scale that didn't come close to matching his performance and abilities.

Those Japanese tourists will be honored by the number of empty seats we have left for them

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 05:11 PM) The Sox have already chosen to rush this rebuilding by choosing to trade for near-ready prospects. The Tanaka signing 4 years down the road will be the least of this team's worries if Abreau, Garcia, Eaton, et al flop. This is absolutely true. However, of your list, Abreu is the only one whose contract could end up a burden, thus hampering us beyond his own lack of production, and even that only happens if he's a total bust. I think the Sox would sign Tanaka for 7 years at $11M per without skipping a beat. But he's not going to accept that figure. Tanaka is a riskier move than those Hahn has already made and it impacts us in ways those other moves do not. OTOH, maybe Tanaka is a $25-30M per pitcher for 7 years at an average salary that pays him something like $20M per. Tanaka would be a terrific bargain in that event; but what is the likelihood of that happening? I posted other massive contracts in this thread to consider. They usually don't come out smelling like roses. In our case, if we were a contender, a WS title during the 2014-17 seasons would mitigate a lot of that risk, and those benefits would make the potentiality of a bad deal seem less frightening, however we are not on that kind of ground and we are not able to play that kind of game.

Expect a learning process, not numbers. Numbers won't even matter next year. He's going to have to adjust to a lot of different things & the measure of his future success & ability will be in monitoring his month-to-month progression and seeing how he reacts to poor stretches/slumps, the early season cold, schedule length, etc. The Sox aren't paying for 2014 performance nor are they paying for any kind of finished product. The high K comments I am sure are all in relation to those "slide speed bat" comments when he was signed. I wouldn't worry about any of that. He's been worked out by multiple teams & the Sox think he's a pure hitter. You don't need otherwordly bat speed to hit for a high average.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) There's nothing wrong with a rebuilding team acquiring assets that help them win now, but they need to (a) also help them win in 3-5 years and (b) provide surplus value financially. If Tanaka's price is $20m over 6-8 years like TUC suggested, that doesn't satisfy part b, because that is, at best, market rate for those services. When rebuilding, there are a LOT of moving parts -- players that may or may not develop at variable rates -- and it behooves a team to maintain as much flexibility with its money as possible so that it can spend the money to shore up areas that need shored up after it sees what it has with its core. JDA and Tanaka both have the upside to be worth $20m/year in market value. The JDA signing at 6/$68m (~$11m/yr) was really smart for Hahn because he purchased an asset with potential surplus value. Tanaka at 7/$140 ($20m) would not be smart for Hahn because he has then purchased a very expensive asset with no surplus value -- he has tied his hands over the next 7 years by committing a substantial portion of his resources, at top dollar rate, to something he doesn't know he'll need when it matters. With Abreu also, we were the perfect fit. I stopped posting & even following this team for a few months, I knew nothing about Abreu then one day I checked MLBTR & was like "oh we're going to sign this guy for sure." We were just that great of a fit. Further, much in the mold of the typical White Sox acquisition, Abreu, being a DH candidate without any serious run & jump, eye-popping natural athletic skills, was probably a less desirable fit for a lot of teams, and really for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with hitting a baseball out of the ballpark from a spot in the middle of someone's batting order. I think we were able to capitalize on that to the degree that even if Abreu is just a halfway decent DH we aren't getting a bad contract, and if he turns into a star or better, we're getting one massive steal. I almost feel like FA is a shortcut in a lot of ways from following the proper baseball due diligence process. It's like, go ahead and f*** up your drafts, trade your prospects who end up turning out elsewhere, make bad deals, extend older players well beyond their primes, whatever, just make sure you hit on the right FAs and all is well again. But the Yankees have shown exactly why that doesn't work, and all these Yankees currently on the periphery of the HoF like Jeter and Mariano and so on, nobody is going to associate them with the free-spending Carl Pavano Yankees, they are going to be associated with the Andy Pettite days and the Paul O'Neill days and so on. I think the reason we as Sox fans are getting excited about our future now is because Hahn has been making moves that probably aren't going to hurt much & probably will only help. We seem to be moving in the right direction as we are. I'd rather we not change course. That said, I'd love a short-term guaranteed deal on Tanaka that gives us the option of getting out of the deal should it go bad, or trading him before an opt-out or whatever to recoup his value in another form. But I seriously doubt that deal is out there, because unlike Abreu, we're targeting something that absolutely everyone wants, and they want him so bad they are apparently willing to completely overlook any of his potential flaws and minimize the associated risks.

QUOTE (timbo @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:46 PM) That why baseball my favorite sport you may never know what might happen look at the 2005 sox our rotaion wasnt great but we won it anyway Jose Contreras, like Tanaka now, was once the hottest thing out there. A great comp actually given Jose's forkball and competitiveness, and his desire to pitch deep into games/the workhorse mentality. Things went very bad in NY. KW signed Esteban Loaiza as a comeback candidate. Loaiza picked up a cutter with Coop and apart from a late fade nearly won the Cy Young. The following season Loaiza reverted back to Esteban Loaiza, and the Sox traded him to the Yankees in his walk year for 2 years of Jose Contreras with the Yankees picking up enough of Contreras' salary to essentially make him a back-end starter. Obviously, Contreras had A #1 ace level stuff, and luckily for us he started to find it during the 2005 season and for a span of about a year was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The rest of that rotation was the following: 2 draft picks in Buehrle and McCarthy, a rebuild-your-value 5th starter FA signing in El Duque, a halfway decent reliever who was traded for a SP which became Garland, and 3 players (Reed, Olivo, and Morse) who were not starting pitchers but became Freddy Garcia. Freddy, also, had tip-top ability but just wasn't labeled as a sure-fire ace. A more competitive Gavin Floyd basically, tons of ability but a better competitor. Nowhere on that team was there a zillion dollar FA. And looking around baseball, usually the greatest players are those making the smallest amounts of money and preforming in their prime years through the arbitration system. And there's a pretty consistent rule of thumb/precedent set through free agency (essentially what this is) that says when you blow your wad chasing the sexiest object available you often lose sight of the real goals and abandon the rationale that put you in that position to make your offer in the first place. And make no mistake, the only reason the Sox would even bother *talking* to Tanaka is because they drafted and developed Sale (who the extended), plus Jones, plus Reed (now Davidson), plus Santiago (now Eaton), plus Viciedo, plus they acquired cheaply players from other organizations through trade or MiLB FA or claimes like Quintana and DeAza and Gillaspie and so on, some of whom, if not in any way part of the future, can still be traded off for other assets.

One last thing too: Let's say the Yankees sign Tanaka. The Sox make the playoffs as a WildCard in 2015. The Yankees play the Sox and start Tanaka in Game 1 vs. Sale. Are we somehow destined to lose that game? If we start Quintana #2 against CC, are we destined to lose that one, too? Or maybe we get another RHSP in that period, starting him in Game 2 and Q in Game 3. Are we destined to lose that serious, or are we destined to have a s***ty rotation or else get out-pitched and beaten in the playoffs just because we don't have Tanaka? Thinking with your brain and not your dick helps at times.