The Ultimate Champion

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 01:52 PM) That is why you do your homework on him. If everything checks out, then he is worth the risk. If he is getting 7 or 8 years, the Sox won't be in on him. If he gets closer to 5 or 6 years, then the Sox will have a chance. Ultimately, I don't think they'll sign him, but I think they'll submit a bid to at least have the ability to negotiate with him. Considering there is no payment due if you do not sign him, there's no reason for any team not to submit a bid. His agent should be able to give the Sox a very general ballpark figure as to what it would take to get into the discussion at all. I think Hahn already knows what this ballpark figure is, and he's probably already moved beyond it. The Yanks and Cubs will probably throw out a pretty good starting bid as it is, and I would assume teams like the DBacks will be early exits. The Dodgers want to spend as much money as they can. Maybe Boston gets involved, maybe the Angels again because that's just what they do, who knows maybe even Detroit with a Scherzer trade as a possible follow-up, you can't seem to count them out of anything at this point.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 12:27 PM) The new guy might be the best poster on the site, but I'll never know because I skip any post longer than a couple short paragraphs. Not caulfield though, he reads everything. Right now caulfield is in some Chinese gas station bathroom deciphering the scrawl on the stall door while remembering the career of Chris Snopek.

I loved the way Ozzie handled his starters. Relievers were different, but you have to give him a pass for a lot of that because it's pretty hard to make a bad bullpen look like anything other than a bad bullpen. Ozzie with Garland was one of Ozzie's better moments with us. Also I can remember the ST when Gavin first got here & he looked everything like a major bust. He couldn't throw from the stretch even. Shaky as hell, not a chance at surviving in the Majors. What a turn around he had from his Phillies days, and Ozzie keeping him in there definitely helped him. My biggest complaints with Robin still to this day were his bulls*** handling of Q during his rookie year not letting him complete games he was dominating even though he was rolling. IIRC Robin lost 2 of them, and Reed was 1-for-2 in saving them.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 11:31 AM) Did you just make up some dances. Toilet Twister IMO Lots of groans but very good for your focus and concentration, although a fan is necessary at times.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...7428&st=210 36 people voted for offering Hamilton a contract in this poll 36 people voted against signing him at all. I voted twice. We win, everyone else lost. Let's do a Tanaka version so we can go back & look at it again.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 11:28 AM) Which Hahn showed this past offseason. If the Sox think Tanaka could be good,mthe fact that the rest of their core is paid so little gives them to add a Tanaka type deal. It's not like we're the Angels with 1000 aging players on monster deals. We had to dump Alex Rios to sign Abreu because Adam Dunn's donkey ass is stuck on the payroll. You don't need to have 1000 aging players, just one bad deal to set you back, especially when you're not winning, not drawing fans, and (thankfully) devoting a good chunk of money to the amateur draft and international free agency to the point where your window to add payroll to the MLB roster is pretty small.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 11:22 AM) If you have excess pitching, and no one ever really does, you can easily flip that excess for hitting. This is absolutely correct, however I would much rather keep it to the Santiago-for-Eaton, Freddy-for-Gavin+Gio, Garland-for-Cabrera, McCarthy-for-Danks and not shoot for the moon trying to make some meag deal & assuming all the risk coming along with it. I mean really I don't know what the team insurance is going to cover, but with Tanaka who is unproven here you don't just have the injury risk, you have a higher quantity of the Linebrink Factor, the Javy Potential, the Ritchie Risk, etc. because this guy could end up getting into some s*** & not being able to pitch his way through it. And I'm not saying that it happens for sure, but what do your expectations have to be to sign this Tanaka guy? They have to be pretty f***ing rosy, a little too rosy for the reality of a rebuilding team IMO.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 10:54 AM) I'm sure they will bid something. They just have no shot at competing with NYY, LAD, etc. I'm honestly not sure if it is even worth the time wasted when they could be working on other things that are more realistic, such as a catcher. Remember, the talks for the Davidson trade were rooting in the former trade with the Dbacks weeks ago. Making a deal isn't a simple proposition like it is on OOTP. There are big arms all around the league the Sox could take a shot on without giving up a key player, either making a deal around a lesser veteran like DeAza, a reliever, or a prospect. None of this costs huge payroll room. I agree with the poster who said we should wait until we are contenders to add big FA contracts, especially on the pitching side. Just think, what happens if Danks comes back to full health, and both Johnson and Beck/other RHSP turn into above-average MLB SP? By the time we're a real contender again, we could be 6 deep and dealing with a beautiful excess of SP for all we know. Let's spend our money elsewhere & not be stupid. I mean, if we were going to hand out that kind of money, why didn't we get in on Ellsbury or Cano? Why did we stay away from McCann? Hahn isn't spending Tanaka money anywhere, especially not on a pitcher. And it's unlikely to me that Jerry Reinsdorf would ever want to go along with that anyway, nor would I see Kenny Williams on board with that, and given all the options in his deals, I see no reason why we should expect Hahn to even ask any of those guys what they thought about a Tanaka type of deal. I bet Hahn has spent more time thinking about what he plans to offer DeAza in arb than why he'd offer Tanaka. No reason to even think about it at these rumored figures.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 10:13 AM) Would you rather have Darvish or Contreras? Kurodo or El Duque? Pitching-wise, the Japanese have been better IMO, and I was the biggest Contreras fan there was. Irabu and Dasiuke were huge costs that never worked out, Darvish is the only one that I think is really all that special. Nomo had a nice long career. Outside of Darvish I'd take Count over all of them, and El Duque was a masterful pitcher, one of the mose entertaining guys I've ever watched pitch. His cousin Livan wasn't too shabby either. And let's not discount all the position players either, nor arms like Chapmann. Cuba beats the dogs*** out of Japan from an athletic standpoint IMO, and some of their pitchers have been pretty good. I'm not against signing Tanaka for a reasonable rate. We're not getting one. Don't see the point in giving a guy 7 years guaranteed and huge money per who has never pitched in MLB, doesn't have Darvish's stuff apparently, and probably isn't going to do much for us in the first year or 2 given where we stand as a non-contender. I would definitely take the bet that the Sox can come up with a similar caliber pitcher through other means at an excellent price over the time they'd have to pay Tanaka. I really see absolutely no logic in trying to outbid anyone for this guy. It's a terrible move & one we'd regret. Outside (of course) from the fact that Darrin Jackson would be ALL OVER this & would entertain the s*** out of me during every one of his broadcasts which Tanaka would start.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 09:51 AM) There is also far greater risk and far less certainty when it comes to Cuban players too. Their track record is no where near as good, and highlights and scouting reports from Cubans are far more scarce. It's just as likely that a hitter of Abreu's apparent quality came over from Japan, he'd get $20 mill per year. Again, if their reports indicate that the guy is going to be an ace, then they should be involved in the process. You guys are bringing NPB stats into this thing, not me. I'm just pointing out how ridiculous it is to post them as some sort of indicator for success. Just like with the Cuban players, you go by talent & scouting. The Cubans seem to be far, far superior natural athletes anyway. In general. And they grow up with competition, just like in Japan. And while much of the league over there is junk, same thing in Japan, but the stars in Cuba are better, period. Tougher league, better players in general, better athletes. Give me Cubans over Japanese guys 7 days per week. But that's still not my argument, nor does it have anything to do with my argument. My argument is that it's foolish to chase Tanaka at what his cost is purported to be. Posting NPB stats does nothing to change that, nor does the posting of absurd contracts given out by other teams. We don't do that stuff. Abreu was the craziest thing we've ever done with an unproven player and there have been no signs from this organization anywhere that we'll not only continue that behavior, but go even wilder. No pun intended.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 09:41 AM) Considering Scott Kazmir gets $11 million a year on the open market, I think you need to adjust what you think is a lot and not a lot of money now. Things have changed. MLB teams, including the White Sox, are flush with cash. There is zero reason for any of us on a message board trying to be responsible with JR's money. It's available if he wants to spend it. This is a unique opportunity. You don't sit around and say, well maybe in 2 or 3 years we will bid on someone. That opportunity may not come. You take advantage of opportunities when they occur. Passing and waiting on the next one or maybe the one after that, usually leaves you with nothing. Maybe the Sox scouts aren't all that high on Tanaka. If that is the case, that is the ONLY reason they should not be involved in trying to acquire him for nothing but cash. Kazmir got something like $22M guaranteed, Vargas IIRC $32M guaranteed, etc. Meanwhile the Sox will be paying Erik Johnson the league minimum next year & even as a rookie I like how he stacks up in comparison. They'll be paying Quintana well under a million even if they give him a good raise, they'll be paying Sale $3.5M and Paulino $1.5M, and their big albatross is Danks, who if healthy again will look like a solid bargain at $14.25M per for 3 seasons. I'd say we should continue following our own model and f*** everyone else.

The Sox were desperate when they were bidding for Abreu, and they still got him at an average annual value of a shade over $11M per for 6 seasons. Compared (probably ambitiously) to Miguel Cabrera. If they could get Tanaka for anything even remotely close to it then go for it. You can't. That's the point. You have to draw a line somewhere.

I changed my mind. I thought about, I think Hahn should go crazy bidding for this guy. One of the best & most entertaining aspects of White Sox baseball is DJ telling his stories about playing in Japan & Japanese culture as a whole. I don't care if he has an ERA of 5, as long as he makes 30+ starts then that's 30+ days where I get to hear DJ in his absolute element. Given that I love DJ, I'm going to go ahead and back this thing. Shoot yourself in the foot for me, Rick.

Actually Randy Messenger & Jason Standridge (remember him?) were your #3 & #4 pitchers in the Central League http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2013/stats/pit_c.html

http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2013/stats/bat_c.html Your top-5 best hitters in the central league last year: 1) Tony Blanco 2) Wladimir Balentien 3) Some Japanese guy 4) Matt Murton 5) Jose Lopez Haven't some of our prospects pitched in Japan recently? Anthony Carter maybe? Carlos Torres or Heath Phillips maybe? I know there have been a couple. I bet they look awesome too.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 08:59 AM) To me, $100M+ deals are for "finishing touches" because the value of a few wins inflates the closer you get to World Series contention. I get that this guy is young and potentially great, but how long ago was the Yu Darvish signing? 2 years ago? Why are we so certain that another phenom won't come along when the Sox are actually in position to take on his contract and do something with it? This, and how certain are we that we won't sign someone out of Cuba? Or actually draft someone who turns out really good? Or develop a couple more of our pitching prospects? Or trade for someone already good? Or pick up a reclamation project and turn it around? If the Cubs want to be idiots, let them be idiots. The Sox are doing this thing the right way.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 08:45 AM) If you are ever going to spend $100+ on a free agent pitcher, a 25 year old is your best bet considering the length the contract is going to have to be to get him. I realize the Sox have next to no chance to get him, but not getting involved would be a mistake. Make him say no. Pick 4 of Sale, Tanaka, Q, Johnson, the #3 pick...I could be the 5th starter and that team would be tough to beat. This is exactly what you get to build teams around. Scouts say he has the best splitter in the world, and say he should adapt faster to MLB because, unlike most Japanese pitchers, he pitches off his fastball. Most pitch backwards. The risk you take is an injury risk, but you take that with every player you acquire. I don't think there's much of a chance he's not very successful if he is healthy. At worst, if he performs, you can always trade him. The Sox signed Peavy last year. It didn't work out but did turn into Avasail Garcia. Money doesn't appear to be much of an object these days. Bring as many quality players to your team as possible. And the longer you are contracted to pay that player the larger the risk. The more money you owe him the harder he is to trade. And if you owe him a lot and he gets hurt, you're f***ed. He's getting 7 years. The signing bonuses IIRC are paid in installments to the team, so factoring in that, you're probably looking at something like $20M per over that span if you're going to beat out Theo the Great who refuses to be outbid by anyone. And even then you still might not outbid him. Or the Yankees.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 08:18 AM) You had to go all the way back to Irabu to make your point. What about Nomo? Hideki Matsui? Ichiro? Iguchi? Aoki? Any number of relievers that came over? Kaz Sasaki? There is plenty of evidence to see that it's, at the worst, 50/50, and a lot of those guys had at least some success during their careers. http://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/Japan_born.shtml There are plenty of guys who have been incredibly successful, and the pitchers are slightly better than 50/50. If they've done their homework, and they believe the guy is legit, there's no reason for them not to be involved. No reason? When's the last time the Sox spent an average of around $20M+ per season on anyone? When's the last time the Sox went 5+ years on a free agent pitcher, in fact, when is the last time they've gone 7 years? Every single offseason there are #3 quality starters with the stuff to dominate a game on the market, and usually there are guys you can sign for 4 years or less. Also there are always types with a bit more upside looking to rebuild value, ala Josh Johnson this year. Further, we have an organization that specializes in picking pitching out of other organizations/off the scrap heap and turning it into something worthwhile. Lastly, the strength of or organization is pitching, the weakness is everything else. There are plenty of reasons not to piss away a huge chunk of payroll space and potentially several seasons of offseason flexibility on a guy who has never pitched in MLB & who probably isn't even an ace anyway. Should the Sox offer a $20M bid plus a 6 year, $75M salary? Maybe, that's a lot and still pretty risky. But that's not going to get it done. The Sox would be forced to bid against angry, aggressive stupidity to "win" by assuming what is probably going to be the biggest on-paper financial risk of the offseason. No thanks.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 06:38 PM) Are you confusing Noesi with someone else? No, he has a nice arm. He's way back on the M's depth chart & should be available. for sure Dunn will bring back nothing much even if you eat his salary. DeAza probably gets you 1-2 prospects/projects. Noesi + something else for DeAza, Noesi straight up for Dunn and lots of cash, I do those moves for sure. Coop project. I threw in other pitching because I'd like to see some more arms come back but I don't know what they'd have available. SEA has some interesting bust type position players but they all look like either arb eligible or nearly arb eligible, meaning they've got a year basically to show something. That Franklin guy everyone here talks about, he seems like he'd bring back a much better player for Seattle than either Dunn or DeAza, and I assume that's about all we have to trade that they'd want, unless we want to talk Viciedo (I wouldn't).

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 03:23 PM) This may have more to do with coming off TJ surgery and not wanting to take the risk with a 40-man spot than any aspersions on his pitching abilities. We may be amongst the minority of teams willing to use a normally-valuable roster spot on someone with high upside and high risk with whom we are not that familiar. Most teams probably have a prospect or two he'd be blocking. Not us. That said, there's no way he's a guaranteed ace or anything. Definitely a project. This is the only thing that would make sense to me.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 03:17 PM) Nope. Mark was taken and signed, no follow. He's possibly the most unique pitcher ever in terms of how he succeeded. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/4/19/4...ve-mark-buehrle

I see no reason why Hector Noesi of the Mariners shouldn't be available, nor any reason Hahn shouldn't look into him. The Mariners could use DeAza in the OF IMO & maybe Dunn some in the DH slot. DeAza + Dunn + tons of cash for Noesi and some other pitching maybe? I'd love to see the Sox pull some arms out of that org. Noesi would be a nice #5 and add righty balance with potential to far exceed that.

Also wite's comment about Ted Lilly seems appropriate, but like I said, I can't see an MLB-ready pitcher who looks like he could be another Ted Lilly make it to us on waivers. The Giants know pitching & didn't want him, neither did anyone in the National League. We'll see what he looks like in Spring. Often these guys, when they're on the field, don't seem to match the scouting reports at all.

QUOTE (bear_brian @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 12:07 PM) The best example I can think of in more recent Sox history of a left hander who never showed outstanding stuff, but had the great combination of poise, command, confidence and a pitcher's intellect would be that 38th round draft pick by the name of Mark Buehrle. Would that Surkamp be able to emulate Mark, but not sure he has Buehrle's makeup, which Quintana does seem to have. It is the consistent ability to throw your pitch, not the hitter's pitch, and it does not mean you have to throw 93+ to be successful. Buehrle was a draft-and-follow guy. The 38th round thing is a product of the old system, which they do not allow for anymore. You used to be able to select a guy and watch his progress, then sign him later. MB IIRC pitched at a community college & then the Sox signed him after. IMO if they still allowed that system you'd see a lot more "finds" like that, and I'm sure there have been some other pretty good draft-and-follow guys signed out of other organizations in the past. The way it is now though, you get until the signing deadline to obtain the rights of a player & if you can't come to terms on a deal then he's eligible for the next draft.

I hope you guys are right, but I just can't buy it. He got through half the league and past the Astros, how does that happen? Teams can always remove a player from the 40 to make a claim. The prospect comments make him out to be a legit LHSP prospect, and I just can't see him being that and still making it so far down the line, all the way to us. Anyway, I hope for the best, and if he's a solid second lefty out of the bullpen then that's a huge plus as it is.