The Ultimate Champion

The Japanese league sucks. Put whatever marks on it you want, they still suck. There are a few good guys who can play in the Majors, and a scant few who can do so at a very high level. But when you look at your average AA league you find lots of seriously talented prospects, most of whom will never make it of course, but there's athletes and ceiling there all over the place. And much of the AAAA players dominating the AAA level in America are at least experienced somewhat at the MLB level, many of them veterans who would be arb eligible should they get another shot in the bigs. There is great parity there & there's a pretty large talent pool of players who are fringey 25-man roster types who can't get a spot on an MLB team in a given year but who IMO would beat the s*** out of the league in Japan should a ton of these guys all go over. Of course there are Americans who will play in Japan or elsewhere but the money has to be there, as well as the playing time, to provide the incentive for a guy to leave or move his family that great of a distance & have no assurances of a job in MLB the following season. But yeah, if Japanese teams started buying up a bunch of fringey MLBers I bet those guys would go over there and beat the hell out of that league & it would be a total embarrassment to Japanese baseball. That's probably why it would never happen, because it would be embarrassing to have 1/2 gaijen (sp?) teams made up of guys who really don't want to be there in the first place with talented ethnic Japanese players failing to crack the roster because they're not good enough to beat out some teams ex-bust prospect. Call me a hater, I'll put my balls out there, and if that excites yall & you feel like being flamers well I don't know what to say other than the fact that where I'm from we have a saying "If you're coming on, come on!" And if you know where that's from I'll give you an internet cookie. And if not you don't get one. Unless you agree with me then you will get one.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 11:25 AM) Japanese players are pretty good man. I don't know why you are trying to belittle the man's stats. Don't get me wrong, he won't put up those type of stats in the MLB but to say that Japanese players are AA players? That's just disingenuous. Yeah that's what I'm saying. The league is terrible. Our failed prospects here are better IMO.

QUOTE (GREEDY @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 11:22 AM) What kind of player do people think De Aza could net? Feels like a reliever to me... and for the most part those can just be purchased on the free agent market currently for roughly the same money you would be paying the player netted in return for Alejandro. Otherwise, I think De Aza brings back the same middling SP prospect that he would net at the deadline. I really prefer holding Alejandro to mix and match with our right handed corner outfielders, at least until the deadline. I think DeAza can bring back a live arm or two. But we'd probably have to target a team with depth that really needs position players, and we'd probably have to dip down into the minors a bit or else grab an MLB-ready guy who has failed/disappointed a bit. When it comes to pitching though I am comfortable with looking at mechanics & talent and making the deal. You can't polish a turd, but I feel that anyone who is worth the polishing effort could possibly be turned into something by this organization. I think there's definitely a talented starter out there we could take a shot on in a DeAza deal. Position players OTOH I don't trust us with & I can't see us getting anyone who really looked good at A+ or above last year out of DeAza.

I love how our biggest weaknesses are all centered around walks and strikeouts and s***. I'd say it's a lack of making hard, solid contact with the baseball on a consistent basis. Our FO seems to believe this to be largely an issue with approach, and hopefully it is & Steverson is the ANSWER, but regardless, Dunn the donkey still isn't going to help us with anything unless we have a good enough team around him to absorb his many weaknesses. That was the whole point of bringing him in here in the first place. And he's not getting us anything good at the deadline & he's not going to be here when we're good again. So he's garbage, throw him out. Feed him to the dogs.

In all fairness, Tanaka spent most of those pitches inside domes at ideal conditions and pitching to a bunch of guys that could never make it out of AA ball in the states. All pitch counts are not equal & the stress level in Japan is vastly below what he'd have to endure in MLB. As far as I know, pitching alone is stressful on the arm. The fact that he throws a splitter should be more concerning than pitch count assuming he pitches appropriately & works off his fastball. My concerns with Tanaka would be the money, the years, and the fact that he's unproven. The insurance factor probably means that a team would be better off having someone like Tanaka hurt & on the DL for the season than making 35 starts with an ERA over 5 while earning a top-3 salary on the team.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Dec 29, 2013 -> 04:46 PM) It's not just the strikeouts though man. The strikeouts are merely a symptom of a greater disease that festers inside of Flowers/Dunn: the inability to be a tough out. I know that concept is alien to numbers guys on this site because it isn't quantified. It could be though if someone was to watch every AB and note every time they couldn't play productive team ball. (Paraphrases): AD a few years ago- "I'm not paid to hit singles." AD last year- "My stupid stubborn ways, I guess I can try hitting away from defenders." Me- "f*** you." Hey I told Dunn to f*** off first! Put me in there somewhere.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 29, 2013 -> 08:03 PM) I think the strikeouts seem to be the problem because the real problem is a lack of plate discipline. Strikeouts are one of the results of bad plate discipline, so strikeouts confirm our notion that our team lacks plate discipline. What was really sapping our offense were the other aspects of bad plate discipline, namely taking walks and hitting situationally. I'd say the issue is even simpler and goes beyond the strikeouts. Our main offensive problem last year was having multiple players who were routinely over matched by major league pitching. To that end, while the youth additions are fun and provide some excitement, expect much more of the same next year. Although hopefully we'll begin trending upwards & start hitting our way through these development issues.

^None of this should hold up the trade market from the Sox point of view, however here's a couple things: supposedly we're interested in a Yankee C prospect or two. We also have been talking to AZ & maybe others. AZ wants Tanaka, NY wants Tanaka, NY also is kind of held up a bit re: ARod and they additionally need serious IF help. It's possible that the Sox need to kind of wait for some of these guys to address their top priorities first before dealing with them when looking for a C or other help.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 28, 2013 -> 02:12 PM) I really think with Christmas falling on a Wednesday the front offices around baseball just took the whole weekend off. I really doubt we see much movement until after the new year. To my knowledge, the only bit of baseball news going around is Mark Mulder potentially signing somewhere. I doubt that. I mean, if you ran your own business, would you just quit answering the phone & talking to people for a week because you thought you could get away with it? I think it's a combination of things. For one, Tanaka is holding up the SP market. There isn't much in the way of position players left on the market. There have been some pretty high-profile trades across the league, so a lot of teams have done the heavy lifting already. Moving the deadlines ahead in the last CBA is probably a good reason for that. It does seem like we're a week or so ahead anyway; things naturally cool down after the Winter Meetings & early January generally seems pretty dead. It feels a bit like early January now. Also, another thing I think is that since most of the good players in FA are off the board, teams are probably more willing to wait for some prices to come down as they look to fill out their benches, sign platoon partners, take fliers on some guys, or add that last reliever or two.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2013 -> 12:42 PM) The problem is...replacing Uggla with Beckham is replacing garbage with cheaper garbage. Someone has to have a reason to take on the money. The White Sox would get basically nothing back in either case. One word: Walker Braves make perfect sense, nice find Roostifer. Who are we getting back? Hope someone good.

Also as long as the Sox medical staff looks over Garza & gives the OK, I'm far more comfortable giving him a deal than Tanaka. Also I think it's much likelier that he comes at a reasonable price tag than the other guys. I imagine someone will overpay for Ubaldo & I think Ervin Santana is too Gavin Floydish is give a big deal to. He's like Alex Rios the pitcher.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Dec 28, 2013 -> 11:00 AM) I don't think Garza is attached to a draft pick either. Nope, he's not. Under the new CBA midseason acquisitions of players in their walk years don't qualify for the QO.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 28, 2013 -> 12:56 AM) Geez, tough crowd. I think "most" would say he was a great great manager and anything can happen in a short series. There is definitely something to be said about a guy who can manage egos properly on a team full of above average players with a very great ones on it as well. But I think you don't expect a hiccup there just because of the talent involved. However, when they hit a bad stretch as a team, then you just sit back, relax, strap it down, and see whether they can rebound or if they just unravel.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 28, 2013 -> 06:03 AM) Then why not just have Thome in that role? It's not like Konerko has had a profound effect on Beckham, and that's the player he's most closely associated with in terms of giving hitting advice and sharing his wisdom/experience. We didn't completely eat the Linebrink contract, and it was only about 1/3rd of what we're paying Adam Dunn for 2014. MacDougal's the only other recent example. Even when we had the opportunity with Teahen, we preferred to package him with Edwin Jackson so as not to eat salary. A non-player in that role is a babysitter. There's also the chance that a healthy Paulie rebounds enough to be a contributor. We've all seen these extended struggles from Paulie before, and while his age is even more of a factor now, how many times have Sox fans insisted he was done only to be wrong? Not saying he'll end up as a regular, but he could help out a bit off the bench if healthy. You're right on Linebrink, I just named him since I think that Dunn's situation is unprecedented here and Linebrink was probably the closest recent example of a 4-year deal which turned into an unmitigated disaster. But I would also add that the Sox current situation, if not unprecedented, is one we haven't seen in a very long time. The 2007 team was kind of a temporary rebuild year, but even that year we had more vets on the roster and higher expectations out of ST. Even though we lost some pieces, we had won 90 games the year before. I think in this circumstance the Sox would be amenable to ditch Dunn by any means necessary because they would understand the value of an extra spot on the 25-man roster & the negative trickle-down effect of keeping a massive turd in your jeans while you walk around the mall.

Also when Dunn is gone I say forget the Dunn Appreciation Thread, you need a Hahn Appreciation Thread, a God Appreciation Thread, and a Sanity Appreciation Thread as well as a playing of Taps for all those poor mosquitos that guy swatted during his tenure here.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 06:33 PM) This is another reason the Konerko thing in particular made little sense, it's forcing Hahn into some moves that he doesn't want to make or will be salary dumps. I love the Konerko move. It makes great sense to put a vet like that and a consummate pro on the bench to help a bunch of young hitters adjust. Great move for the future. And Hahn's already stated that Dunn is going to fall in line. Nobody in the organization, apparently not even Dunn himself, wants that guy here. I hope he's gone, and I trust that the Sox will Linebrink him if they absolutely feel they have to - or maybe, they Andruw Jones him as the Dodgers did to get out of that deal. Right now Dunn is only taking a spot on the 40, but as it gets closer to ST, if he's still here, they're going to have to get thinking about letting him go.

I don't buy that the Sox will somehow force themselves to keep Dunn. That makes no sense in any way. He's not a draw, he's not going to help this team contend, and even if he has a good-for-2014-Dunn kind of year, whatever that is, who wants him? He needs to be out there every day in order for his BB and HR % to show up and so he's definitely not a bench bat, he adds nothing anywhere else on the diamond, and so the only teams who could have any interest would be AL teams needing a LH bat at the DH position with potentially a small opening at first. If you find the one team in July that needs Dunn, great, but where's your leverage? He'd never get claimed on waivers. You're stuck playing someone else's game, and why? You're not getting that good of a player in return in all likelihood. Meanwhile, Gillaspie has a lot of value to us as a 1B/3B/LF? LH PH and spot starter. He could be somewhat similar to that guy we got from KC we had to have so badly (thanks Buddy) and as long as we're not handing him any guaranteed 3-year deals & as long as we just deal with the arb process, Gillaspie alone is probably better than anything we could expect from a midseason Dunn deal. And as for Keppinger, if we have to pay him, let's just keep him as insurance on our younger guys & take advantage of his versatility and veteran status, because it's not like we need to win anything in 2014. That versatility is probably better than anything we'd get out of Dunn at that point. With DeAza also, I wonder if there could be teams low-balling Hahn in part due to Dunn's presence, knowing that Hahn has to dump someone. Rather than take less for DeAza you can just dump Dunn, keep DeAza as a LF/back-up CF/DH, with Viciedo getting a good number of AB at DH, and then you evaluate your bench after that. Jordan Danks wouldn't have a spot but with DeAza & Leury basically as extra OF you don't need to take him.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 11:56 AM) I realize that only a small sample size of votes has been made available, but I just don't understand how Glavine can get that much more support than Frank. I always thought he was a bit overrated and Frank was clearly the more dominant of the two players. I can understand Glavine being on 100% of the ballots. I can't understand Frank not being on 100% of the ballots. But I can't understand how a lot of these baseball writers have their jobs either, so what do I know?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 01:34 PM) (That, by the way, does not mean that Uribe's contract was anything other than bad). They're the Dodgers. Over there, bad is the new good. You must not be from LA brah. Let me get you some spray tan right quick brah.

Who still needs a SS then? I think Alexei would be a perfect fit for the Yankees. They have Kelly Johnson at 2B, nothing at 3B, Jeter at SS. They can play Alexei anywhere and make an improvement. Not sure what they would trade though.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 04:27 PM) no one knows is true. But the best comparison is someone that was in the exact same scenario. He played on the same team as Iwakuma. 2007-2011 Iwakuma (age 26 to 30) 780 IP, 725 Hits, 157BB, 607K's, 2.67 ERA 3.86 K/BB ratio, 1.13 WHIP 2007 - 2013 Tanaka (age 18 to 24) 1315 IP, 1182 Hits, 275BB, 1238K's, 2.30 ERA 4.50 K/BB ratio, 1.10 WHIP Same park, same team behind them (except for 2012 and 2013). Worst case scenario is that Tanaka compares better than a top 20 pitcher. Give him an adjustment year and depending on health he'll be a top 25 guy. Clearly you don't know the meaning of "worst case scenario." Think about that term for a second.

Per Cots, these are the guys in baseball history who have earned $18M or more per season as an average annual value: Roger Clemens Justin Verlander Felix Hernandez Zack Greinke CC Sabathia Cliff Lee Cole Hamels Johan Santana Matt Cain Tim Lincecum Roy Halladay Adam Wainwright Carlos Zambrano Barry Zito Again, from MLBTR in an article from Gabe Kapler: "He also cautions that Tanaka is far from a sure thing and will need to display impeccable command of his fastball or add some movement to it in order to flourish in the Majors."

Yanks want to end it before it even begins via a huge bid. Keep in mind that Theo won't be outbid apparently. 125M-145M over 6-7 years = $17.8M - $24.6M per year Is this Greinke again? No? Good, let's see how high Theo will go. Then we can play the Cubs & Quintana can out-pitch him. Ha.

MLB.com's Richard Justice writes that teams see Tanaka not as a seven-year deal but rather as an investment to make an immediate impact that could yield a spot in the 2014 playoff picture. The Yankees would like to make an offer to close the bidding process before it truly begins, writes Justice, but several other teams likely feel the same. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while Tanaka's new agent, Casey Close, does not have Scott Boras' public reputation of bargaining hard, he does have that reputation within the industry. Close is no stranger to large deals, as he represents Derek Jeter, Zack Greinke and Mark Teixeira, among others. Sherman also runs down a list of eight teams that he feels to be the Yankees' most serious competition for Tanaka: the Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Mariners. In a piece for FOX Sports, Gabe Kapler writes that he spoke to one Major League GM who thought Tanaka would sign for something in the six-year, $105MM neighborhood (not including the posting fee). Kapler feels that Tanaka's age and the potential bidding war will up the price to something in the range of seven years and $125MM (plus the $20MM posting fee). He also cautions that Tanaka is far from a sure thing and will need to display impeccable command of his fastball or add some movement to it in order to flourish in the Majors. Troy Renck of the Denver Post can't imagine Tanaka signing for anything less than $100MM (Sulia link). ^From MLBTR

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 01:55 PM) I see what you mean -- Dunn as negative value. I think I'd agree with this in a different year, but since the payroll isn't really an issue, I'd rather maximize the value of De Aza rather than worry about getting Dunn off the roster. You know a lot more about the prospects out there than I do, I just like Noesi's arm a lot and I think he could be a fit with Coop. But I'm sure you'd have a better idea of what else they'd have to offer in terms of pitching prospects. There's quality there to be had I would assume. They basically gave away Fister & Morrow. I'd love to dip into that well a bit, especially since they seem pretty desperate. As for Dunn, I'd eat all his cash anyway, but getting a potentially good player would be awesome. I would argue that it's worth it to shed Dunn even if it only allows us to keep Connor Gillaspie & take a 4th OF on the roster. If Davidson struggles or doesn't make it out of ST as the starter (and there's no reason to "challenge" or rush him when he has options) then Gillaspie will be pretty important to us, and even after a kind of disappointing first year, Gillaspie should by no means be considered a finished product. 5 years of Gillaspie as a cheap 1B/3B/LF LH PH option with the ability to start for stretches has a lot more value to our future than 1 year of Dunn does now. And a 4th OF will be necessary, especially if Leury can't hit his weight even measured in kilos. And I think if you can get that extra positional flexibility plus a project, you just do it & be thrilled at the chance. Maximizing DeAza though, I would like to see that, but I'm not sure you're going to get much ceiling out of him unless you either take a bust/failed/change of scenery type like a Noesi or you dip down into the lower minors. If the Sox can do both though I'd love it. The Mariners OF seems pretty s***ty and he would actually fit as a LF there, so maybe Hahn's already spoken to them.