QuickJones81

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:40 PM) I dont think it is fair to consider Adams or Trey "lottery tickets". Or really Danish or Guerrero for that matter, although they're closer to that than Adams and Trey. I initially thought that, but then I tried to approach this from the view an outside team looking in. I don't think they would view them much higher than that. Since they're our second tier they get more emotional attachment/value that another club viewing them in a vacuum wouldn't.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:26 PM) Would you guys rather: - Give up prospects for Dickerson - Give up the draft pick and $$$ for Fowler For me, it's a hard question that I don't know the answer to. Easily B. Another trade will leave the system gutted beyond the top 2 or 3.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:08 PM) Trade Erik Johnson for Dickerson and sign Latos. Problem solved. No one outside of the White Sox holds value in Johnson because he's not a sure thing to be a major leaguer. No one will roll dice in on him unless the ask is a bag of balls. We need him to be successful so we bias towards him being the pitcher he was last year, and not the one who nearly washed out. Everyone else just sees risk.

The Sox have the bullets for one or two more trades for decent improvement, however, doing so will make them one of the bottom 2 or 3 farm systems in baseball again.

We don't have a wealth of high end prospects, so we probably don't have the ammo to snare a star, however, we still have guys that could be pieced together similar to the trades that have been made the past couple years. I would say we have two categories of trade value, high floor depth pieces and raw lottery tickets that other teams would be attracted to Depth: May, Beck, & Peter Lotto Ticket: Adams, Michalzcewski, Danish, Guerrero, Adolfo, Zangari, Stephens, & Hickman

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 03:59 PM) I think OP is asking about a difference in WINS though, not defensive runs. Tough question to answer because you have to not only have faith in WAR stats, but predictive WAR stats too. Anyway, the difference with just replacing Thomson with Cespedes is +2.7 (per Steamer) if you do. Here's the math: 2015 OF fWAR Eaton - 3.6 Thomson - 1.5 L. Garcia - (0.2) Schuck - (0.3) Cabrera - (0.3) A. Garcia - (1.1) Total: 3.2 2016 Steamer fWAR Eaton - 2.1 Cespedes - 2.9 L. Garcia - (0.1) Schuck - (0.2) Cabrera - 1.0 A. Garcia - 0.2 Total: 5.9 Delta: + 2.7 If these are to believed, the answer to the question: ..is obviously no but it's moving in the right direction. This also obviously says nothing about gains at 2B, 3B, and C or what gains might also be realized at DH as a result of the change in roster as well. Another way to look at it is Cespedes gains us 2 wins over signing Austin Jackson

QUOTE (scs787 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 01:36 PM) Why isn't this over yet??!! For the Sox, and this board, it effectively is.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:15 AM) I think it's more that it was all they think he is worth more than it was what what others were offering. They have determined what they think he is worth and they are sticking to it. They will not grossly overpay. I think this is the correct way to approach all FA. It's the smart play, and sometimes it means passing on something you really really want in the short term, but good organizations typically operate like this. Bottom line is this team won't be strong through free agency, it needs to come through strong drafting, international signing, and development. It probably means things will get worse before it gets better unfortunately.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Jan 21, 2016 -> 03:48 PM) Right? Dude had a 102 and 110 wRC in 2013 and 2014. You're paying a lot to see is 2015 was for real. Fowler in 2013 and 2014 put out a 103 and 124 wRC those 2 years. The reason I like Cespedes over Fowler is the draft pick.

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Jan 19, 2016 -> 04:06 PM) It's been that way for many years around me. I know there are certain stores I can go to and find Sox stuff, but I also know of a lot more stores that will display Cubs stuff over Sox stuff 10 to 1. I think the people that order the stuff for the stores are simply Cubs fans because there is no rhyme or reason to it. It's easy, Cubs merchandise sells, Sox doesn't. No business owner is going to carry stock of a product that just sits on the rack.

Garcia, I think Rick doesn't have the bullets left to do a move that is worth it at this point.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 19, 2016 -> 09:33 AM) I'll give you a hint. Two of your Top 15 aren't on our list. You'll see who tomorrow. My guess is Nunez and Brennan are those two.

Surprised by Stephens and Peter not making the T15. Really like Feliz and Zavala. Hope to see them have some helium on this list come midseason. Obviously Davidson needs a big season or he's probably off of the list by mid year.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 05:59 PM) Biggest difference of opinion has to be Adolfo...and then the ceiling of Peter. For where they ranked Peter it didn't seem like they were too high on his ceiling, more so his floor. That in and of itself speaks volumes for how they feel about the depth of the system ranking him where they do. They pretty much really like Anderson, Fulmer, and Adams, and are pretty meh on the balance of the system.

QUOTE (Sockin @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 05:14 PM) I dunno, dude is already 32 and has never seen major league pitching. 32* *Cuban years

I'd be in on Bruce. The sudden change in performance seems to possibly be an aberration brought on by injury. This may make him a really good buy low candidate. Also couple that with the fact that it seems like Cincy has lost in every deal this offseason makes me feel comfortable that Hahn can work a deal we won't scream about. His salary isn't bad, and the window is aligned with cabrera, frazier, etc. I can get behind this option.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 09:10 AM) So just to be clear, The braves just traded Shelby Miller for Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and 3 other prospects, and we would then trade Q for just Inciarte. Seems like good market rate addition. I am definitely not on board with the Inciarte obsession some people have. Not overly impressed, and don't seem to understand why others drool over him so much.

Ex-Sox trade piece. Absolutely tore up the minors, but hasn't been strong in the pros. Interesting to see him available.

If you replace a 0 WAR player with a 3 WAR player does that add 3 wins to your projection, or is it more complicated than that?

Really getting tired of a few teams just buying all the talent. A cap and an international draft sounds good to me. Too bad the union would never let that happen.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 01:59 PM) http://www.purplerow.com/2016/1/10/1071374...7242.1436820968 Some possible reasons for why CarGo hasn't been traded yet. From that article I also found this other article that talks about the Coors Hangover effect, and how Rockies' hitters have to face a sharp adjustment whenever they go on the road, and their performance away from home suffers more than any other team. Pretty interesting article about how you can't just use road numbers for Rockies' hitters to judge them. http://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/15/5712224...mbers-are-lying A good case study would be to see how players wRC+ splits compare before and after leaving the Rockies. Take Tulo, Holliday, etc. and see how their road wRC+ changed being a Rockie, and in their new home. You could do it for guys like Morneau who became a Rockie after life elsewhere. Without actually doing the work, and buying into your second article, I'm guessing you find the home numbers comes down a bit, and the road numbers come up to a greater degree. This would mean overall wRC+ might actually come up after leaving Colorado.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 05:19 PM) I have to say, that has to be awkward if you are Garcia to see your teammate actively speak of replacing you. He wasn't loved in the Detroit locker room, maybe he doesn't have fans in the White Sox locker room if they really don't care about upsetting him with comments like that.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 04:13 PM) He also started hitting the ball a lot harder. Hardhit% by year: 2011: 28.8% 2012: 26.2% 2013: 34.1% 2014: 43.3% 2015: 42.3% He led all qualified hitters in hard-hit% this year. Is that a function of pulling the ball more? I also wonder if he improved his recognition some how. That could lead to better zone swinging, pulling the ball, and hitting it harder.

I'm interested if any of the data analytics junkies have done a case study on J.D. Martinez. He went from Avi like numbers to an all-star seemingly over night. I'd love to know if analysis shows any sub-surface leading indicators of his emergence, which could then be helpful in identifying future players poised to make a similar leap.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 30, 2015 -> 10:36 PM) And, it's also a little bit of the KW problem in the last half of his reign, the minor league system is no longer abundant enough that you can put enough secondary pieces together to pull off a huge trade...and/or you aren't willing to sacrifice one of your top 2-3 prospects. The deals for Samardjia, Lawrie, and Frazier were practically all secondary/depth prospects. Bassitt, Ravelo, Semien, Phegley. They were guys who were fringe prospects, who made pushes over the preceding year, and Hahn/KW dealt while their value was up. Semien may be a starter, but is probably just lineup filler like a Gillaspie, between true position anchors for a team. Bassitt is a nice back of the rotation/depth guy, but not a difference maker. Phegley doesn't look to be a major leaguer unless he made strides in Oakland this year that I wasn't aware of. Ravelo is probably the only one with true potential left, but he's just a good story at this point. Wendelken and Erwin were trades made from depth on an inconsistent arm in Wendelken who could be special if he puts it all together, but more than likely will never achieve more than middle relief in his career. Erwin is young and unknown, but was a guy best suitied for dark horse discussions, and not a name everyone tossed around as a farm asset. Thompson was a player who seemed to be a bust a year ago at this time and road his value to an all time high with a fantastic 40 game performance. He may finally be reaching his potential, as there was never any doubt in his tool potential, or he may fall back again to his mean once the book is written on his tendencies. Johnson was a dark horse prospect who shot up the org prospect ranks based on far better than expected performance in the minors, and a Brian Roberts approach to basestealing that he was able to use to fool a lot of catchers/pitchers in the lower levels. His time in Chicago opened up serious questions as to whether he could be a major leaguer, but like Thompson still has a chance to surprise in the end. Montas was the only true blue chip prospect dealt. A lottery ticket in the Peavy trade that hit, thus far, that projects to be a nasty reliever, or even a front line starter if the stars allign. Enough depth in this area of the farm and pro team made it OK to let a good one go to get something in return. In short, I disagree with the lack of depth comment. Even after these deals there's enough Jordan Guerrero's, Chris Beck's, and Adam Engel's to entice other teams with visions of potential longterm steals without letting go of guys like Anderson, Fulmer, or Adams. I have been rather impressed in Hahn's ability to sell what appears to be high on a lot of these guys to land a bigger fish. A great way to manufacture roster value.