QUOTE (beautox @ Oct 27, 2015 -> 04:27 AM)
I've been thinking a lot this post season since my last offseason plan and this is what i think is both realistic and likely, looking forward to some spirited conversation with regards to this post. Last year the sox were 1st in the AL in fWAR for starting pitching(4th overall) and 7th for relieving(16th overall) total pitching the sox were 3rd in the AL(9th overall), and dead last for hitting. Seeing how around 40WAR got you into the post season this year and how at the all star break we were still in it, there is hope to be had.
I would tender contracts to all ARB eligible players: Flowers, Garcia, Jones, Putnam & Jennings. Next I would decline Ramirez's option and pay the 1M buy out. With the free agents to be I would QO Samardzija, knowing he is going to decline, re-sign geovany soto for 2 years 6M and let Albers who was solid for us walk and beckham to never be heard from again. I think a certain subset of our fanbase would be very excited if we brought back the following players and if they're useful why not. Sign Mark Buehrle for 6.5M provided hes healthy and wants to play one more year. Sign AJ Pierzynski to a two year 7M deal with a 500k buy out. Lastly i would sign Steve Pearce to a 4M deal possibly with an additional option.
I would look to make the following trades:
C Tyler Flowers to Seattle for SS Brad Miller - Hahn has actively been trying to upgrade this spot for quite some time and the mariners are desperate for catching help since Zunino hasn't panned out. By installing Flowers as their catcher that is a swing of 1.2WAR, -.8 to .4WAR. Miller in the outfield has been a disaster for the M's and he isn't going to supplant Cano or Marte. Miller is a slighty above average defender at SS and 2B and can out produce Alexei for 1/20th of the cost.
RHP Erik Johnson, OF Avisail Garcia & RHP Spencer Adams for 3B Martin Prado & OF Marcell Ozuna - Miami need young cheap pitching Johnson provides that and Loria has consistently shown a propensity for not wanting to pay anyone more than league minimum, taking all of Prado's salary and their outspoken outfielder in Ozuna solves some of their issues while giving them a lottery ticket in Avisail to play in left and a promising young arm in Adams in addition to 11M freed up to pay someone like Juan Uribe this offseason. Loria is on record saying he would trade Ozuna and Ozuna has had a down year in addition to being upset about how his major league service has been handled.
LHP John Danks + 6M, 2B Micah Johnson & OF Courtney Hawkins for RHP Braden Shipley, LHP Cody Reed & UT Phil Gosselin - John Danks would've ranked second in fWAR and innings pitched on the d-backs staff, they've got some great young arms coming up but they need an inning eating stalwart to break their staff in. Johnson replaces Chris Owings at second base while fitting into their aggressive strategy on the base paths (2nd in SB overall in the league) and Hawkins is a change of scenery candidate going to a system that has had a lot of success in developing young hitters. Shipley appears to be a possible 3/4 on a staff in a year and a half, possibly two, Reed has a lot of potential but has issues with conditioning and is a long way away and Gosselin is a solid utility player.
1B Adam LaRoche for RHP Jonathan Papelbon. This is a bad contract / "cancer" swap, both are FAs after '16. LaRoche goes back to a place where he has had modest success backing up the oft injured Zimmerman and providing a left handed bat off the bench. The nats rid themselves of Papelbon and the sox get a high leverage reliever with a chip on his shoulder.
Payroll comes in at approximately at $115.46M; thats including Alexei's buy out, dead money from Bonifacio & Peavy and the 6M sent along with Danks to Arizona. Less than the $118.8 from last year. Some believe the sox payroll can reach 130M, put me in that camp as well but the only long shot FA I would remotely pursue would be Jason Heyward and additional veteran 5th and 6th starter types to store at AAA in case of emergency or if Montas falls on his face.
I firmly believe that Thompson has the possibility to be like Brandon Crawford and Randal Grichuk; a tools player made good on said tools even with mediocre minor league results. Moving Eaton and cementing Trayce in centerfield while adding Ozuna and relegating melky to DH and 5th outfielder drastically improves the defense; the amount that Cabrera, Eaton and Garcia gave away out there is sickening. The fact that the sox had the best starting pitching by fWAR in the AL is a testament to the staffs ability and why maybe we shouldn't be moving any of them and should be supplementing them with better defense across the diamond. Moving Cabrera who was -15 in defense to DH(-17.5) full time would barely be a decrease in his value at this point.
Miller provides the sox with at the very least a utility man and bridge to Anderson with the potential for a solid regular to replace Sanchez if he falters. Understandably a lot of people are skeptical of Carlos Sanchez, but he is only 23 years old and a switch hitter. The fact that he had even modest success at the major league level in the second half should be very telling, the organization loves his glove and his bat should come along. Young hitters take a while, it is even more pronounced in switch hitters especially power. Carlos could be a fixture for the sox for a long time to come and I would like to see the sox give him a very long leash.
This is some back of the napkin math and I look forward to hearing what others think with regards to what realistic expectations for WAR could be going into next year and defensive rating(this will be very crude and simple).
DH - Melky - 1-1.5 WAR, if he is capable of producing his second half the sox will be in fine shape at DH. Defensively D-
C - AJ & Geo - 1.5-2.5 WAR and C defensively I think we're looking at average and in the same area as Grandal and Lucroy and slightly above Flowers himself.
1B - Abreu - 4 WAR somewhere between his first and second full year and inline with his second half. D- defensively but luckily in this offseason plan we've got Steve Pearce to back him up late in the game and provide pop off the bench.
2B - Sanchez - 1.5-2WAR this him just duplicating his second half of the season and growing. A- Defensively
SS - Miller - 1.5-2WAR putting him back at shortstop and a change of scenery could do him wonders. B- Defensively.
3B - Prado - 2.5-3WAR leaving him at 3B along with a wRC+ of 100 would do wonders for this team, in addition to coming to a more hitter friendly ballpark. A+ Defensively.
LF - Eaton - 3.5-5WAR by moving him to left field his defense plays up we could be looking at an Alex Gordon like player if his second half is a precursor. Defensively in CF C- in LF B-.
CF - Thompson - 2-3WAR I stand by why I think Trayce makes the step forward. Defensively A.
RF - Ozuna - 1.5-3WAR a change of scenery could be what he needs to get back to the promise he previously showed. B Defensively.
SP - Sale - 6-8WAR if ever there was a Kershaw clone we're blessed to have him on the team.
SP - Quintana - 4.5-6WAR Continues to do a better impression of Andy Pettitte link.
SP - Buehrle - 1.5-2WAR if he is willing and healthy no reason to think he wouldn't be a great addition to this team and give a certain segment of fans something to be excited about, plus he can retire a white sox at the end of the year.
SP - Rodon - 2-4WAR I personally believe he reduces his BB/9 closer to league average and takes off and never looks back
SP - Montas - 1.5-2WAR another young arm that will need to reduce his BB/9 to be successful, last year he threw just shy of 130IP I think the sox push him to the 150-160 mark.
Bench Sans Geo (Saladino, Pearce & Gosselin) - 1.5-2WAR first time in a long time its a younger athletic bench that should offer some interesting traits offensively.
Bullpen - 3-4.5WAR there is potential upside with Jones, Papelbon, Duke and even Robertson.
On the low end this team looks like its capable of producing 39WAR right on the cusp of the playoffs and with plenty of money to spend midseason on acquisitions one way or another, with some maturation(Sanchez, Thompson, Ozuna & Montas) and possible break outs(Eaton, Quintana & Rodon) the sox could be in the thick of it.
Great post, but Papelbon? I don't see why anyone would want a guy who chokes his own teammates during games.