steveno89

QUOTE (heirdog @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 05:09 PM) 3 team trade: White Sox trade Quintana to pirates and Robertson to Nats Pirates trade Keller, Newman, Hayes and Diaz to white Sox and glasnow to Nats Nats trade Robles to white Sox Pittsburgh would be parting with five prospects for Quintana, I don't see that happening

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 04:35 PM) I'm not saying trade him now for whatever you can get. I am saying whatever is too much to give up for Q this offseasom will still be too much to give up for Q in July, and next offseason, and next July on and on. Barring a miracle Cy Young caliber season this is peak Q value. Hahn can be as upset as he wants that "his price" isn't being met, but taking his ball and going home because New York won't give him their three top prospects just exposes the Sox to a ton of unnecessary risk for what is overwhelmingly likely to be no gain. What other teams are willing to give up determines Q's price not what you want to get for him. You guys are acting like this market where there is one, maybe two, effective starters available will last forever....it wont. It probably expires sometime in May. And by July 31 Q will be one of a few guys and by next offseason he'll be one of many. That is the moment you'll be begging just to get Kevin Newman because the only teams you'll be negotiating with are the ones who rely on their prospects to survive and covet them as such. The big time clubs will all be spending money, because they would rather lose that than prospects. And if Q just loses his mojo or gets hurt? Forget about it. You'll be begging to dump his salary. So if you think holding Q past about mid-February is a good idea you are betting on him to become Clayton Kershaw. The Sox have leverage. Keep calm. The Sale deal took a YEAR of trade talks to finally happen...and the Sox got what they wanted for the most part. If Moncada had crushed the ball during his brief callup he would not be in our farm system right now. If the Sox are going to burn their last blue chip trade piece, it had better be for premium, very high upside prospects.

QUOTE (kwill @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 04:29 PM) I get the feeling if he is not traded by Soxfest we are going to camp with him. I am perfectly alright with that. It seems many don't believe in Quintana for whatever reason. I see him as a modern day Cliff Lee. He control the strike zone with great fastball location and has two good secondary pitches. I think if the Sox liked Frances Martes the deal would be done. Fact is many around the industry are not sold on him. If the Astros refuse to trade Bregman than you really don't have a front line piece Houston can give you. Sox are not stupid enough to take lesser prospects for Quintana They clearly are holding firm on the cream of the crop The Pittsburgh holdup is assuredly Meadows otherwise a trade would be done already. My guess is Pittsburgh keeps dancing around some combination of Glasnow or Keller plus Newman headlined deal. Sox are not warming up to that at all. Houston is clearly not going to deal Bregman, they likely consider their top offer of Martes, Tucker, Paulino as "topped out". White Sox are not jumping at that. Like the Sale deal, they are waiting the market out for the true marquee headliner, unless they get an outstanding depth package along the lines of: Glasnow, Bell, Newman, Diaz or Martes/Tucker/Reed/Perez

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 03:55 PM) I'm saying that in response to the below message, not what I think the Sox are doing: QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 03:09 PM) * Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline. That to me sounds like a panic, if you were to move forward and trade for him out of fear. The more I dig into it, the more I'm souring on Newman. While I'd love to have him as a utility player in our system, his ceiling is really as an average regular. Not taking anything away from what tools he offers, but I'd much rather trade for players with higher upside. His value is really tied with his ability to stick at shortstop, and I don't see him being able to beat out Anderson defensively. Anderson is a better athlete with more speed and arm strength. If Newman has to move to second base the lack of power becomes even more apparent. Tucker's ceiling is also that of an average mlb right fielder, and the power is purely projection at this point, not reality. The bat might play, but the power will be a necessity, not a luxury once he is forced to right field. The true "blue chip" prospects we are and should be targeting are guys like Glasnow, Torres, Meadows, Martes, Frazier who have considerable upside

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 03:00 PM) Only if you have your head buried in the sand. They have been trying to trade everything in sight. Who is gone already is just who had the best markets, not who they didn't like most. It takes two or more to tango in a trade You need suitors to be willing to part with the necessary pieces to get a deal done, which can take a ton of time. The Sale deal happened after a year of talks.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 02:38 PM) Really? That's the worst case scenario? Worst case scenario for me is he blows his arm out in the WBC and the Sox get nothing. The risk of that is not enough reason for me to settle for a lesser package and panic deal Quintana this offseason Sox might have to show the resolve to hold him unless they get their price in order to eventually get the haul they want

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 02:29 PM) Gahhhh, am I glad you're not running the negotiations. This kind of mentality of fear is how you capitulate and trade him for an underwhelming package. You don't know how Q will pitch, you don't know how Newman will play (or Glasnow, or Meadows or anyone else). None of us do. But, this mentality of "it can only get worse from here" is pure BS. If you trade for the prospects now, you're taking a risk as well. The trade deadline could yield a buyer who isn't in the bidding process today (maybe a starter gets injured), for prospects who maybe we aren't even talking about today. Sox are far from panicking They hold all the leverage in negotiations. Unless they get their price, Quintana stays

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 02:26 PM) I think the question with Keller is whether he has the hit tool to hit 30+ doubles. He doesn't need to hit 10 homeruns if he hits line drives all over the place. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospect...hp?reportid=358 That is a really good in depth scouting report mid season 2016 on Newman He can flat out hit The rest of his tools are average He looks like he can be a solid, average regular overall. Our system could use a prospect like Newman. Worst case looks like he could be a good utility player, best case an above average middle infielder

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 02:23 PM) Here's the risk: (1) There are a finite number of teams with the headliners and depth of prospects necessary to get a deal done for Q; (2) Buyers at the deadline, generally speaking, are bolstering their team for that particular stretch run. So if the Astros or the Pirates have a bad first half, they probably wait for the next year's FA market to bolster rotations. (3) We take Q's consistency as a given. But if he falls off - even in the slightest - that could lead to a substantial reduction in Q's value. Q's value is based on his uncanny ability to be consistently very, very good. There's less of a market for that than there is for the front end starter with pure stuff. (4) Right now, if a team wants a frontline starter, they have to go to the Sox for Q or the Rays for Archer (whose price tag is astronomical). At the deadline, there's a good chance that the supply on the market increases, thereby potentially reducing the return for Q. Bottom line - the Sox need to maximize the return on Q, and I tend to think they are doing the right thing at the moment, holding out for Meadows. But there's risk leaving a package of (for example) Glasnow/Keller/Newman/Diaz on the table because you want the headliner to be Meadows. I don't think the Sox are necessarily "dead set" on a particular prospect, but rather how the entire package looks They clearly want at least three premium prospects in return, or 2 premium, 2 very good Meaning: Houston: Martes and Tucker are givens as headliners, but more along the lines of Whitley/Reed/Perez/Fisher/Laureno/Stubbs need to be included Pittsburgh: No Meadows is ok, No Bell is ok...but the cost goes up without those guys big time Glasnow + Keller + Newman + Hayes/Diaz

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 02:09 PM) Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline. I'm not all that worried, Quintana has shown to be a very consistent quality starter for years now. He is not a fluke after 4+ quality years in a row

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 01:54 PM) I love this article from the New York Daily News, where Cashman was very candid with his thoughts about the negotiations with the Sox. In this article he states: - Sox are where the Yanks were last summer in terms of "pressing the reset button" - The Yankees set the bar high then in terms of expectations on trade returns for prized assets - Their results for the trades of Chapman and Miller ultimately led to the returns the Sox received for Sale/Eaton - He's willing to put high-end prospects on the table to get a deal done, but ironically, his trades from last summer and the Sox' current trades have established a new sticker price that the team who created this new market value in the first place is now not in a position to meet http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball...ticle-1.2941444 That makes sense The Yankees don't want to fork Torres and Frazier over after just acquiring them not long ago Sox asking price is reportedly "Three elite prospects" which I read as three top #50 prospects...steep? Yes, but fair for 4 cheap years of Quintana Musgrove, Martes and Tucker deal reflects that (Musgrove was #42 prior to getting called up)

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 01:44 PM) Are pitchers in MLB going to walk a guy with no power that often? Or is the incentive going to be to go after him more because you know that odds are really high that he can't hurt you? I guess I am asking if guys with no power but high walk rates see their walk rates translate to MLB? Exactly MLB pitchers will be more aggressive with him because he is not a power threat. He still will post solid ratio's of BB/K Newman won't headline any Quintana deal. He would be a third piece

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 12:57 PM) 30 power is 3 to 5 homers a year. His 60 hit tool supposedly translates to .280. You are pretty much describing a lesser averaged, less speedy Juan Pierre. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-ex...scouting-scale/ He has a 60 hit tool, but also knows how to draw walks to get on base He could be a + .280 hitter with a +.350 OBP with solid speed. No power though. Solid 2 hitter

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 12:28 PM) Mike, Keller is a top 50 guy in some publications and will be when new lists are updated. That's too much IMO. How is a ML ready catcher the same as a fireballing reliever in A ball? Two scenarios: Meadows + Glasnow/Keller + Newman or Glasnow + Bell + Newman + Diaz

QUOTE (ecupittfan @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 12:08 PM) Jeff Hoffman is considered to be the best of the bunch. He was supposed to be the #1 pick the Rodon draft year, prior to Tommy John his last year in college. Came back and went through the minors fairly quickly. Was the centerpiece of the Tulowitzki trade. He may be the best on the staff in the near future. Rockies prospects Hoffman #2 Hoffman is a good prospect, but still has a ways to go to prove himself. He has bounced back from injury well though. I don't see the Rockies going from a bottom 5 pitching staff, to one that can compete with the Dodgers or Giants next season without some major additions

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 11:48 AM) Get to Googlin' the name of Mr. Ronald Acuna because him + Albies is a duo of position players that is really only topped by Torres+Frazier/Rutherford or Meadows+Bell/Newman. Then you infuse some young lefties (Sox are a little short on lefties now) with Joey Wentz and Max Fried into the system. Plus Luke Jackson who was a gas can last year but definitely a worth use of innings for a rebuilding team to see if he can figure it out and be a good bullpen piece. I'm well aware of Acuna, but the risk factor in projecting a 19 year old who has never played above A ball is considerable I'd rather have prospects who are further along in their development, as Acuna won't be mlb ready until 2019/2020 best case

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 11:37 AM) The packages I would have interest in: Yankees: Torres, Rutherford, Tate, Acevedo, Freicer Perez Astros: Tucker, Martes, Reed, Laureano Pirates: Meadows, Keller, Newman, Hearn Braves: Albies, Acuna, Wentz, Fried, Luke Jackson Pretty massive value differential between those packages That Braves package is far too light compared to the rest Pirates package is solid, of each that you proposed I feel this is close to a realistic deal Astros package is also solid, but I'd like to see Perez and/or Stubbs make it in there somehow to sweeten New York package is meh. I'd rather see Andujar as a third piece, followed by Tate/Acevedo

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 11:30 AM) Baseball AmericaVerified account ‏@BaseballAmerica The @astros are reluctant to part with Francis Martes, knowing the righty could debut in 2017, @jakemkaplan writes. http://bba.am/Cmgzxy Houston can go f*** off That's laughable If Martes is off the table I'm not even answering the phone again if I am Rick Hahn Scraps are not landing Quintana...a king's random is

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 11:20 AM) If they get either Meadows or Torres without it being what amounts to a 1-for-1 swap I'll be happy. If the deal doesn't include one of those two I want three top 100 (consensus, not snuck in at 97 on one list) with at least one, preferably the best, being a position player and a 4th lower level player added. I'm not getting too hung up on specific names, if a deal feels right I'll like it. Quintana is projected to be worth roughly $133 million in surplus value Torres or Meadows are, at best, worth roughly $72 million each in surplus value based on prospect valuation. That leaves over $60 million in additional surplus value to be accounted for in trade value...which means significantly more would have to be headed to the White Sox

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 11:08 AM) My own feelings "My opinion on "fair" value from the suitors. NYY: Frazier, Andujar, Kaprellian. Torres deal: Torres, Rutherford, Adams, Kyle Holder HOU: Martes, Tucker, Stubbs, Ferrell PIT: Meadows, Hayes, Diaz Not sure if I'm way off base or not, but these make sense to me." NYY: Frazier, Andujar, Kaprellian (feels light for 4 seasons of Quintana...big drop off in value between Frazier and Andujar/Kaprellian) Torres deal is closer, but still light. Martes + Tucker is a start, but I don't think Stubbs or Ferrell are good enough to be a third piece in a deal. Pass Meadows + Hayes + Diaz is considerably light. Keller would have to be included

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 10:59 AM) My opinion on "fair" value from the suitors. NYY: Frazier OR Torres, Rutherford, Andujar, and a low level (A+ or below) high upside pitcher. HOU: Martes, Tucker, Reed, Perez, and Stubbs OR Laureano PIT: Meadows, Newman, Keller, and Hayes Not sure if I'm way off base or not, but these make sense to me. You are not too far off base for what it would take to actually get a deal done The final Yankees piece would have to be one of Adams/Clarkin/Montgomery for a deal to make sense

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 10:50 AM) The Rockies have some good young talent in their rotation. If Gray, Anderson, Chatwood and Bettis all improve this year, their rotation is actually probably ok. And this has been mentioned before in this thread, but Q is a curveball heavy pitcher. I think it's reasonable for the Rockies to be skeptical as to how that would play in Coors. He'd have to be fastball/change a LOT there. And with the prospect premium necessary to land him, given the extra risk, I think it's pretty reasonable for them to stay away on Q. What about the Rockies bullpen though? They were awful in 2016

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 10:36 AM) The Yankees are fools if they go into the season with their current rotation. It's Tanaka and a bunch of garbage. Tanaka isn't even a sure thing either. Ellsbury is regressing hard and still owed quite a bit of money. Sabathia comes off the books after this season. Quintana would slot in very well, but I think their plan is to punt somewhat on the 2017 season, go big in free agency the next two offseasons, and couple that with hopefully Torres, Frazier, Mateo, Andujar, etc. being ready to contribute by 2019 That being said, even the Yankees have payroll constraints and cannot totally rely on big free agent signings to build the pitching staff.

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 10:36 AM) I don't blame the Rockies. A pitcher with Qs demand is a high risk for them. After reading about Hurdles tenure there from the book Big Data Baseball I got the impression that the FO had no idea how to make their pitchers more effective in Coors. Granted he was there a while ago but the book made it sound like that organization was just fed up having no answer for the thin air. Q wouldn't be effective in that park. He relies too much on his breaking pitches but what do I know. The Rockies really need starting pitching and bullpen help if they want a chance of contending against the Giants and Dodgers Q and/or Robertson/Jones would bring some much needed stability to the pitching staff

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 10, 2017 -> 10:23 AM) That's what that YES network guy said, I dont see a reason not to believe him. Sox have shown with the Sale and Eaton trades that by being patient they can get their guy. GM's are under huge pressure to win, especially if a team is in its "window". The Sox do not have to settle for a package less than they want. I'm very surprised that we have not heard of more interest from the Rockies. Quintana and/or Robertson/Jones would seem to be a great fit for them