OmarComing25

QUOTE (Brian @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 07:06 AM) I'll take whoever has home field. The road team did win both Wildcard playoffs last year. I'm not sure homefield will make that much of a difference, coin-toss either way.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 7, 2015 -> 02:50 PM) I'm sure FIP will say it's a good start due to strikeouts, but Sale has been awful. Definitely time to maybe skip a start for him, as who cares about 300 strikeouts Nah he's given up 3 HRs, FIP is going to hammer him for this start.

Can we just bean Raburn every time he's up?

After seeing Sale get let down by the defense time and time again, he's actually getting the opposite effect today. Defense has probably saved a run or two.

God damn it Sale.

Bauer has absolutely no control today. 12 straight balls. Yikes.

Sale needs at least 12 Ks today in case Johnson steals a start from him if he wants to get to 300 for the year.

Nice inning.

Didn't realize we were the first team to sweep the Royals in KC this season. I was all aboard the draft-pick train but damn that series felt good. f*** it, keep it going.

QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Sep 7, 2015 -> 12:32 PM) I think cooper needs to go more than Williams or Hahn. Why?

When was the last time a pitcher who had success in the NL replicated that success in the AL? Cueto has sucked, and Hamels has just been OK for the Rangers (I'm aware of the small sample sizes). We all know what's happened with Samardzija. I can't think of one. I guess Volquez has been OK this year but he's not really a guy I would say has had a past history of success.

In 2012 we went 2-6 against the 69-93 Red Sox, and 6-12 against the 72-90 Royals. No skullf***ing needed, we go .500 against those two teams and we win the division.

It's baseball. The Royals could get swept out of the first round or they could win it all and neither result would surprise me in the least.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 6, 2015 -> 10:38 AM) I kinda want the Cubs to get to the WS just to see the board implode. lol. I can't believe how many people here have the Cubs living rent free in their heads. This is pretty funny coming from the guy that can't keep it in his pants anytime the Cubs win a game.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 07:25 PM) With regards to the weak contact stuff, how about the fact that the reason his ERA is so high is because the Twins have destroyed him this year? In those games, it definitely wasn't weak contact. There's no doubt that a majority of his games, Sale just dominates. I don't know, I still think the Minnesota thing is mostly a fluke. Look at Randy Johnson. In his most dominant season (2001), he had a BABIP of .315, well above his career average. I don't think that in a season where Johnson struck out around 40% of the batters he faced that the rest were squaring him up well. Seems more like the randomness that is baseball.

I Know I should be cheering for us to lose right now for draft position, but f*** the Royals, I'll always root for beating them.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 10:57 PM) Good young arms? Who? Fulmer and Johnson? We can't count on either of them to be in the MLB rotation next year. We have a lot of potential SP prospects in the minors. Why can't we count on Johnson next year?

Ok c'mon going by overall record to judge an offense doesn't make sense. Arrieta has faced a lot of s*** offenses in the NL but the D'Backs have a pretty good offense. Edit: For the record, the Cardinals don't have a great offense.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 08:05 PM) Thanks for clarifying FWIW, I don have a problem with the view that Arrieta has been better this year. The ERA difference is pretty big, and I'm not necessarily in the camp of "pitcher's have 0% control on balls in play". The case for Arrieta is strong. I've always used ERA a lot, but this year has just made me sour on it a bit because of Sale. His advanced metrics are the best of his career by far, but his ERA is looking like it's going to be the worst of his career so far. With a difference that stark it just feels like ERA is missing a big part of the story. I mean it doesn't make sense that Sale is giving up the weakest contact of his career yet he's giving up more hits. There's something else there. And when the same pattern exists with the other pitchers on the same staff (like with Quintana), that just further increases that doubt in my mind.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 07:34 PM) What's sequencing in regards to? FWIW, I'm a much bigger believer in WAR, etc for hitters than I am FIP for pitchers. Sequencing is the order you give up hits. Let's say two pitchers give up a walk, a single, and a homer in an inning. If Pitcher A gives up the homer first, then the other two, he ends up giving up only one run. If Pitcher B gives up the walk and single first and then the home run, he gives up three runs. ERA says Pitcher B was three times worse than Pitcher A. FIP says they were the same, because in a way they essentially did the same thing.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 06:56 PM) Sale absolutely was better last year, IMO. Significantly fewer hits allowed. He also was way, way better with RISP last year. Agree to disagree then. There's way too much noise in the ERA metric for me to trust it too much (BABIP luck, defense, sequencing), this year has convinced me of that. Sale has been far more dominant this year than last year IMO.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 05:42 PM) Difference in ERA between Greinke and Kershaw is half the difference between Arrieta and Sale. A 2.03 vs a 3.29 ERA is a pretty obvious choice for me as to the better pitcher for that season. Sale has given up weaker contact than Arrieta if you look at their batted ball profiles. He has him beat pretty handily by every advanced metric. Was Sale better last year compared to this year? I don't think so.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 02:51 PM) Arrieta on his way to not giving up a run in his start. Would be 6 of his last 7 starts. Can't believe some think Sale has been better this year. On the things we know pitchers can control, Sale has been better this year. Do you think Greinke has been better than Kershaw this year?

With the second wildcard, it's easier to make the playoffs than ever. Hell an AL team might make it this year with 83-84 wins.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 12:51 PM) Not really, the expected WAR is about 1. Yes maybe the Sox can make a good pick, but the chances the guy ever even makes MLB is 50/50 at best. Well yeah, most draft picks fail, but we're comparing the value of the supplemental pick to a random team's #8-10 ranked prospect. I'll take the former, unless it's the #8 ranked prospect in a loaded system, especially considering most fans would have seen this as White Flag #2.