Dominikk85

I think it could be fun to track what happens with the last place candidate teams (trades, injuries...) I start with the reds, their probably best starter anthony de scalafani was diagnosed with a ucl sprain. He will be shut down for a month but often this ends up in TJ surgery. The reds already have a very terrible rotation, if they lose him for the year they become a very serious candidate for the worst record. (Even with him they are projected around bottom 4)

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2017 -> 12:44 PM) If catchers were so valuable for just defense or framing and no big hit tool, we wouldn't see Weiters going for 2 year deals and castro on 8 million AAV. I don't buy that a defense only catcher is so rare that we target that over a pitcher/position player with higher ceilings. If he is our main target, I hope he's Sal Perez behind the plate. Otherwise, I hope we are getting something interesting alongside him. Actually the hold up on winters was that he is bad defensively and did not hit well enough for a bat first catcher.

I think they key is eating the contract. Fangraphs wrote an article that Robertsons value is around 30 m the rest of his contract and he costs about 25. That means he only has 5m of surplus value which is only a minor prospect. But if you eat all of the money you get 30m of surplus value which is worth a top50 to 60 prospect and maybe a little throw in on top (about 4 to 5 war of contract value).

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 4, 2017 -> 07:46 AM) The average major league salary was a recorded high $4.4 million last year with a record 127 players making at least $10 million. Salaries aren't dropping, they are being re-distributed. Napoli is a 35 year old who put up a 1.0 WAR. Carter is 30 and put up a 0.9. Added together they didn't equal Todd Frazier and we have posts here that claim Frazier was terrible last year. They aren't getting paid because the information says they shouldn't. That is not true.salaries go up but slower than mlb revenue. Of course the top salaries went up more but there is no re distribution happening, what happens is that the overall share pf the players goes down. The players share dropped from 56 percent in 2002 to 40 percent. https://www.google.de/amp/www.fangraphs.com...-android-huawei Of course more players make 10m but that doesn't account for baseball inflation.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 4, 2017 -> 03:48 AM) I don't buy what the agent is saying. Players are looking for one year deals so they can have a good year and net a multi-year deal. They do not "have" to settle for a one year deal. I have no basis for this other than deductive reason, but to assume that Jose Bautista didn't have a multi-year offer in the range of $12-15 million is absolutely ludicrous. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/blue...e-bautista.html As the story goes - $17 million guaranteed, $18 million mutual option, $500K buyout, attendance bonuses, and a $20 million vesting option for 2019. I feel the Jays caved in, not the player, in this regard. That mutual option has about a 1% chance of being picked up by both sides, so he will receive $17.5 million to play for one year in Toronto. The qualifying offer is $17.2 million. How is that unfair to the player? Teams are making multi-year offers. Players are declining those to attempt to cash in later. Ask Matt Wieters and Colby Rasmus how that worked out. They are probably mentioning 1-2 WAR players like Chris Carter, Mike Napoli, Jason Hammel, and the like, for having not signed yet, even though it's February 4th. "Well, you're a 1-2 WAR player with a lot of reasons to question your long-term health as an employee of this organization." Carter does not make near enough contact nor play enough defense to justify a multi-year deal, Mike Napoli is old, and Jason Hammel has consistently been a dud in the second half (career ERA: 1st - 3.99 2nd - 5.06, FIP: 1st - 4.05, 2nd - 4.48, xFIP: 1st - 3.98, 2nd - 4.20) and has never thrown 178 innings or more in a season in his career. Beyond that, clubs that are going to lose absolutely have incentive to spend. The Cubs brought in Scott Feldman on a 1 year, $6 million deal and acquired Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop. They have no incentive to spend EXCESSIVELY, but they have incentive to spend. I have not read this article, and don't want this Filibuster'd, but this sounds like a bulls*** excuse from a union executive b****ing about his members not getting "the money" "they deserve," wholly failing to understand the rapidly evolving market that is the MLB in general. As boring as this has been, this offseason has probably seen the most amount of reasonable and justifiable deals in the history of the league. If we are really questioning the Kendrys Morales deal as one of the worst, then I think we've reached a new peak. MLB salaries are actually dropping dramatically. Teams have realized that paying mediocre veterans is stupid and you can get almost the same production out of a minimum salary guy. The union made a bignore mistake of only caring about vets (no salary cap, guaranteed contracts...) and ignoring the young players that they are so underpaid now that they take away jobs from the mediocre veterans. The union needs to fight for the costs controlled players getting more expensive or having less control years so that vets become more attractive again. And of course bautista could have gotten a longer contract but not a decently paid one. Of course those contracts are more reasonable from the owners perspective but overall the owners are robbing the players. Owners should make a profit, as they carry the risk but the players share of the revenue has dropped more than 10 percent in the last decade.

QUOTE (Baron @ Feb 1, 2017 -> 03:40 PM) Texas really isnt farm rich...they have some nice prospects. But the guy you want is in the majors right now and it's not Profar. I agree. It was excellent but much of it is now in philly and Milwaukee.

I wonder what role musgrove plays in the Q deal with the astros? musgrove is probably penciled as the astros 5th starter so it would hurt the stros rotation depth. of course a MLB ready prospect is attractive for the sox too since he gives you innings now and still has upside but I wonder if the deal can be done if you don't ask for an MLB ready piece. so something like tucker, martes, reed, fisher and hernandez still would be attractive without attacking the astros MLB depth. would the astros do that? would hahn?

I think now and even at the deadline the sox should look for a big haul and otherwise keep him because they have the leverage. if no one bites you can sell him for a slightly discounted but still very good package in the next offseason or even the next deadline. I would prefer a trade now because an injury or underperformance can always happen but this is the perfect situation to overplay your hand a little. there is a solid chance that the astros, cubs, dodgers or red sox have a major rotation injury and get desperate at the deadline.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 28, 2017 -> 09:35 PM) You're ignoring floor, and Benintendi's floor is much higher than Moncada's. Nothing wrong these rankings IMO. yes. plus benintendi has hit at the MLB level, which is a plus even in relatively small sample size. that is not always a perfect indicator (see jesus montero who raked when he came up with the yanks but then never made it) but if you have to chose between someone who hit in his debut and someone who didn't it is a bonus if the guy has hit at least indicating he is closer. I think that is also why it made sense for boston to keep Benintendi. moncada might become a better player but the red sox window is now (and maybe the next 3 years). if they have to wait two years for moncada until he is really contributing that is not good timing, they need cheap production now.

QUOTE (Sox-35th @ Jan 28, 2017 -> 08:04 AM) If he prevents the White Sox from acquiring shortstops, he becomes a bigger and bigger problem. I'm not saying he'll be good or bad, but Hahn cannot settle for Tim Anderson as the shortstop of the future based on the data he has now. Well I hope he starts to get a couple more shortstop prospects and then later figure out who plays short, second and third.

QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 05:30 PM) guys, nobody should be surprised by law's omissions of fulmer, lopez. he's always done this, omitting pitchers he doesn't think can start long term. he's a huge proponent of advanced statistics, especially WAR, and to him a #3/4 SP is more valuable than an elite closer because they have more impact on WAR. in a way, i agree with him. we're about to witness a 2017 season where the yankees have an elite bullpen but their terrible sp will ensure they suck. whereas if you flipped that to a solid staff and iffy bullpen you could be a playoff team (ie dodgers of previous years). i really do hope lopez proves him wrong, and i think he's in no better organization for that based on what cooper did w sale (who law admits he also applied the reliever tag to). but to defend keith's thought process, you all will be disappointed if lopex and fulmer end up in the bullpen. if they do there's no doubt they'll be hi leverage rps, but you'll still wish they wouldve made it as sps. in the end, he doesnt hate the sox, or any other team for that matter so saying such it wacky. he gave favorite reviews of collins and kopech, still thinks very highly of giolito and was slightly below others but still very high on moncada. he hates relievers, that's not new A starter is always better but chapman averaged 2.5 war the last 3 years. That is not like a top starter but better than most number 4 starters and better than what most 50 to 100 ranked prospects achieve during the prime of their career. Most lower ranked top 100 prospects become like semi regulars or so. Of course that ceiling is very high but chapman is definitely as valuable as a top30 prospect (actually he returned one from the cubs). I agree to give a discount to relief prospects but I dont see why a truely elite relief prospect shouldn't be ranked like 80 or so.

There is some reason for concern, not just the walk rate but also the high k not so great power combination. Last year he had a 95 wrc+ but on the strength of a 375 babip. If that regressed to league average it could get ugly. As I said I believe he does more power in him if he increases his launch angle. He does have a bit of pop (almost league average ev) but his launch angle is 3 to 4 degrees below league average. His strikeouts have a little room for improvement too, although even with an improved patience his in the zone contact rate does not point to a better than around 23 percent know rate. But if he increases his walks to 6%, lowers Ks to 23% and increases iso to 160 which I think is realistic he could become a league average hitter which in combination with his defense would be a really solid well above average shortstop. But he does still have some work to do because his babip is not going to stay as high.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 10:55 AM) You should probably read the write-up. He has reasons for it. Of course he has reasons for it but the other writers know those reasons too. I also would rank a benintendi higher but for example why does he rank giolito who has even more red flags above him?

Ranking moncada 17 is really indefensible. I don't think law hates the Sox (I think kopech is way too high) but he probably makes some non standard rankings as a click bait. No other source ranks moncada outside the top5.

I would accept basically any top100 prospect for Robertson. So a top100 and a lesser piece would be niece, for Jones you should be able to get a top50 prospect due to the more attractive salary.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 08:39 PM) If we aren't getting Swanson, Matian is a must for me. That would only make sense if the Sox see Maitan as a headliner. As a third piece Maitan would be a high price because he cost a large chunk of the braves international budget. Swanson is definitely off the board but a package of albies, Allard, acuna and some would be quite attractive.

It doesn't really matter if Q. Is traded now or at the deadline, more important is get good value back. I think it is about a wash. At the deadline a need might appear if an ace of a contender get hurt and you might get a little extra. On the flipside other sellers might appear so I think all in all Qsorts value will be similar. Overall obviously trading him now would be better because there always is a risk of injury or underperformance but if you don't get a good enough offer now you can likely get similar value at the deadline.it doesn't have to be that Uber deal, just a very good one is OK.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 11:31 AM) Are you sure they didn't just come up with the idea of combining horse steroids with the same amphetamines they gave doomed Red Army soldiers in the War? Yes they did that too.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 04:02 PM) Even if we trade nearly all veteran players I do not think the White Sox will be the worst team in baseball. San Diego is trying hard to win less than 50 games with that starting rotation Maybe not but still picking second to third is a big advantage over picking like 5 to 8th. Just look at the 2015 draft were swanson, bregman, tucker and benintendi went off the board before the sox picked. Of course hindsight is always smarter and there is no guarantee the sox would have picked one of them but at least they would have had more options if they drafted second or third. Those late top 10 picks is usually were you start to accept some warts (either a very good player with non perfect tools or guys with tools but some need for polish), while at the top you often can get the complete package of tools and polish. Not saying you cant occasionally get such a guy later (trout) but the numbers get worse.

QUOTE (heirdog @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 10:19 PM) In defense of the click bait article's author, I think he said those were players from each team that would interest the Sox yes there is no way the astros give up bregman AND tucker. the astros were even hesitant to trade tucker at all so they certainly do not give up both and more. i doubt they trade bregman at all but if they do it would be straight up (or bregman plus a bag of balls). i do think the astros have to give up tucker, martes and more but bregman, tucker and reed is completely unrealistic. maybe the author meant some of those guys but not the whole package.

I think the players union hurt themselves by only focusing on veteran pay and neglecting young players (and minor leaguers). of course veterans have more power in the union and the thinking that if young players are underpaid the veterans get a larger share of the cake did work for a long time but GMs now have realized that and they try to replace as many veterans as possible with cheap young players. the really good veterans still get paid but the overall salary in MLB drastically went down the last decade (the actual salary went up but the share of the overall revenue the players get went down a lot (from close to 60 to under 50 percent). to stop that MLBPA needs to start fighting for the rights of young players who are essentially slaves now and maybe even give up some of the veteran players rights to get what they want. of course it is nice that there is no salary cap or maximum salary but that only applies to a handful of great veterans. the majority of veterans would benefit from young players getting a salary more in line with their market value because that makes veterans more attractive again.

I think the Sox should lose a lot of games. People say itsomething OK as long your pick is top10 and that is not wrong but the higher the pick gets the higher the difference in value. The difference between 20th and 10th pick is much smaller than between 10 and 1. Of course plenty of times the number 1 pick busts and the 3 becomes a star but statistically the number 1 overall pick is by far the most valuable. For example the 10th picks produces 6 war over the control years on average which isn't even a league average player and the number 1 overall produces 20 war which is a star player. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/ That doesn't mean the 10th player can't become a hall of famer but the chances are statistically much lower. Also every draft pick higher means more pool money which allows for more overslot signings in later rounds (for example difference between first and second overall is more than a million which basically is another second round pick). Of course the rebuild still doesn't hinge on one pick and the Sox can still succeed if the become 7th but the worse you are the the higher the incentive to be really big because the difference between 6th and 12th is not as significant as 6th vs 1st. So the Sox shouldn't lose on purpose but it wouldn't be the worst thing if they make it all the way to first or second overall.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 11:54 AM) Coop on the Score this morning...said he wasn't in love seeing that Kopech video, but he's a young kid and he'll learn. The thing is a training method that was made popular by Kyle Boddy (driveline baseball). Kyle is one of the best throwing experts in the world and trains like 40 pro players in the offseason or so. he is also doing a lot of scientific research. overload underload training is a proven training technique that was invented by soviet union sports scientists somewhere around the 50s and 60s and now is also creeping over to baseball. https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/03/w...d-consequences/ https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/01/d...weighted-balls/

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 09:15 AM) It's not like Anderson was actually making contact with those balls out of the zone....he struck out over 25% of the time. I'd say improving plate discipline more than a bit is paramount and can turn him into a perennial .800 OPS hitter versus an Alexei ceiling. I think to become an 800 OPS hitter anderson needs to improve both his power output and plate discpline. his chase rate was too high (36%, I think league average is around 30%) but he also needs to improve his power output. I think he has room for improvement (I think there is 15-20 HR power in him) but he also always will have swing and miss in his game. his chase rate is not good but he isn't a great contact hitter inside the zone either (81% zone contact, league average was around 86 or so. that combination of mediocre power output and mediocre contact won't really work, even with better plate discipline. last year he had a 740 OPS but on the strength of a 375 BABIP. he seems to be a solid line drive hitter and also gets a lot out of his grounders but he is not going to sustain that. if his BABIP drops to league average it could get ugly soon. as I said I do see some pop in him, he is not a slap hitter. with an adjusted swing plane he could probably approach average to even slightly above average power and while that will lower his BABIP some I believe he needs to make that adjustment, because his bat to ball skill is not good enough for a hit it low and use your wheels approach. so what he needs to do is I think to first lay off more balls but also pick locations inside the zone that he can drive and then elevate those balls a little more. I'm not saying he should become a brian dozier who pulls everything in the air and thus maximized his not so great raw power (he doesn't have doziers bat control to pull this off either and might get punished with a lot of rolled over grounders which happen if you and not timed perfectly or pull the wrong pitches) but a little more elevation and probably also pull might help him to tap into his OK raw power. he doesn't have to become an 800 ops hitter to become a productive hitter with his defense and speed though, but to even repeat his 2016 output one of either his power or his contact needs to get better and likely it will be his power and not his contact that improves (I think with better plate discipline he could get 4-5% lower but not much more).

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 08:34 AM) Rob snagged an interview with HC Todd Steverson, asking some questions about the mini-camp and a few key hitting prospects. Always fun to get an interview like this, and Todd didn't disappoint. Read it all here. What are your impressions of Todd, and the camp? nice interview, thank you for posting. I'm not sure I love what I read. steverson seems to be a great guy but he sounds to be rather old school focusing mostly on mental stuff and making stuff simple at the plate. that isn't inherently bad but if you look at the really modern hitting coaches like a bobby tewksbary (private coach of josh donaldson and others - look up his stuff, it is really advanced, I know bobby a little and he studies the swing really all day) or the astros hitting coordinator jeff albert who is a sports scientist they are much more advanced in their stuff and they actually like well timed bigger moves vs a simplified quiet A-B-C approach. For example the modern instructors actually favor elevating the ball and a slight uppercut (albert tweets about that a lot). In theory the bat starts above the head and makes contact below the waist so the swing goes down but modern high speed video actually shows that the swing is more like a nike swoosh going down behind the body and then slightly up through the ball so that the upward swing plane matches the downward plane of the pitch. that plane is a little longer than going directly diagonal down to the ball (like mattingley for ex. still teaches) but it allows for more error if you are late or early. here is a good illustration https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ehs-H2V6N5o I think both anderson but also moncada could benefit a little from that. they tend to get a little forward with the upper body instead of having that slightly rearward tilted axis that allows for a nice slightly upward swing plane. I'm not so sure about moncada (because we don't have the MLB data and I only have seen snippets and scouting reports, so I'm not as confident making that statement about him, although it looks like it to me) but anderson definitely hits the ball too low and might have a too level swing plane (his launch angle is well below the MLB league average albeit his exit velo is almost average, he would be a good candidate to do the murphy/altuve adjustment and add some power - I think he could hit 20 bombs with that albeit of course he doesn't have the hit and bat to ball skill of a murphy or altuve.