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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAiamdeadinsideHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Another interesting add to the 2019 class. He is ranked #14 on fangraphs 2020 draft board. So that is the #14 and #23 guys on the 2020 draft board who have been added to the 2019 class in the last two days.

I thought that was weird, but going back to what I disliked, maybe its so there are two distinct data sets to see exactly how it effects the game. I do think its going to be really weird and the first few games are probably going to have a ton of walks and passed balls.

The only thing I don't like about this is that they are doing all these changes at once so it will be difficult to correctly attribute the causes of the different results.

Yeah, I just don't see any pitcher rising enough to threaten top 3 unless some of the guys in the top tier fall off.

Interesting name for the draft. What is kind of interesting is that they have Witt 4th on THE BOARD, so if he is solidly top 4 then there seems to be some separation between the top 4 and the others.

Not really. If you are throwing low RPM fastballs down in the zone, then yes they will be hit into the ground because of the sink. However that does not mean high fastballs are bad. If you throw a high fastball with a high RPM, then it will appear to rise because it doesn't sink as much as it should if it didn't have rotation, so hitters tend to swing under the ball and either miss or high a weak pop up. So you have to figure out what your pitch is like. Low RPM should work down and high RPM should work up.

You will get none of them and you will like it!

I have been trying to think about second round options, but I have come to the conclusion its much too soon to do that now. Any player who was ranked in that range is likely either doing well so they are rising above our pick or they are doing poorly so they are falling below our pick. In reality our pick is likely to either be someone that is currently in the 4th round area who keeps rising or someone who is in the first round area who keeps slipping.

I gotta say, I really love our position in the draft. Yeah, it would be nicer to be #1, but we are going to end up with either a crazy college bat, a really good bat that is also a really good catcher, or a HS SS with huge upside.

MLB owners suck.

Not really. If you are going to use a reliever a few times a week anyway, why not use him in the first instead of the seventh or eighth? Yeah, I think you are thinking of something else. This isn't a bullpen game like you might see in the playoffs. The idea behind an opener is that you use a reliever who can concentrate on only getting a few guys out open the game so that the starter doesn't have to come out against the other team's best players right away. It is a better matchup, and if you are going to use a reliever to get through those guys when they come up a third time, why not just use them the first time so that the starter gets to face them one fewer time. The whole idea revolves around two facts: pitchers give up more runs each time through the order and pitchers are worse in the first inning compared to the second inning. The second part of this is likely due to the fact that in the first inning it is guaranteed the pitcher is facing the top of the order who are likely the best hitters. In games where you do not have a TOR starter on the mound that can get these guys out, why not start out with a reliever who is more likely to be successful, and then instead of having the starter go innings 1-6 and then relievers 7,8,9, you can go with a reliever in the first inning and then the starter for the same 6 inning amount but now those innings are 2-7 with relievers in 8 & 9. You are using the same number of pitchers, but putting them in an order which is more likely to limit run production.

One reason I don't think it will happen is because Zimmerman has a NTC. I feel like the only way a trade works is if its a three way with him going to another contender or if we agree to release him right away so he can sign on somewhere else.

I just keep having this thought that the Orioles end up passing on all the college talent. They are obviously at the start of what seems like it will be a long rebuild. If the new FO feels secure in their jobs, I could see them opting for the HS talent over the college guys because he is a more premium position, higher upside, and is less likely to burn through years of control and years of their prime (plus years of health for a catcher) than the college players who could be in the majors in two years.

Yeah, I agree. Especially with him being 6'3" there is probably some amount of him still learning to fully control his body. I think its very much a Royce Lewis situation where once you get him in a baseball program and concentrating on one position full time then he will advance quickly. Plus, worst case he would probably be plus at second or center.

From a Longenhagen chat: Normally, speed guys are supposed to be good defenders. What keeps a guy like CJ Abrams at a 50 FV as a fielder? Eric A Longenhagen: We have Abrams evaluated at SS right now but he has issues throwing from those weird athletic platforms that shortstops need to be able to throw from to be really good there. So he has elite range, his hands are fine, his windup/max effort arm strength is good, but he still may not be all that great at short because he can’t make these types of throws

Classic mix up. They like each other, but Harper doesn't like like Kenny like that.

Its funny. Last year I was super embarrassed whenever they showed stats about how bad our attendance was or they showed our empty stadium. Now I am going to revel in it. I hope to have the worst attendance in the history of the team. Maybe that will embarrass or scare the FO.

One of the things you leave out though is the availability of viable replacements. You do need people who can play first, but if there are 25 good ones in the league, its less expensive to get one. On the other hand, catchers that can hit are extremely rare, so having a guy who will be at least an average bat there while also being a good defender is really hard to replace and as such would be incredibly expensive.

Maybe if he thinks the Sox are actually willing to be one of the higher bidders he doesn't want to piss them off and make them less receptive to negotiations. Plus, right now there are enough other teams being thrown around to increase the price that he doesn't need to bring the Sox up. Once things get closer to finished he can leak it for that last few million, but no need to do that yet.

His track record is of wild inconsistency. Plus, one more leg injury and he might be a 1B only. At that point, his offensive output might not be nearly enough to justify the cost. Because then we also get the upside if he is outperforming his deal. With a three year opt out, we take a huge amount of downside risk and we don't also get the upside. Its really an asymmetric payoff especially when we are not supposed to contend for at least 1/3 of the upside portion of the deal.

The problem is the risk that if he sucks that he won't opt out. So we are taking on ~$200m of risk for 1 year of contention. That risk might be small, but that sum is very large.

I don't think we should worry too much about that. There are too many other teams with multiple picks before our second pick for us to pinch pennies to try to float someone down. I mean if all things are equal, then we should take the cheaper one, but I doubt there would be a clear split like that.

But another part of it has to be how useful he will be in the pre-opt out years. If we were in the middle of our window of contention then you are willing to take those risks, but when maybe 2 years and likely really only 1 year are going to be when we are competing, the FO (and JR) might not see it as worth that risk.