2016 Presidential Election Thread

[lostfan]

I was thinking about voting early on Saturday. They had it at a library near me. My wife voted early last week. The line on Saturday was at least a block long. I was amazed. So I passed. It usually isn't very long when I go in the regular place. I just wanted to be done with it.

early voting was on the ballot in Maryland in '08 IIRC and that is the last time I've been to vote on Election Day. Since then I've early voted in '10, '12, and '14. I find the experience to be overrated, the line is hundreds of people long (looks like one of those problematic lines they show you on TV from Florida or Ohio). In 2012 I went there in the first quarter of the Bears-Panthers game and by the time I got back home the game had been over for about an hour.

 

I guess it'd be convenient if I couldn't vote on Election Day but from now on I'm just gonna keep voting before I go to work.

[StrangeSox]

Nate Silver is taking heat from people from not including early voting totals in his forecasting model but the thing is, based on the way he does his math, I don't think he knows how. He'd be measuring two different things. Early voting isn't polls, it's people who've already voted, so he'd be trying to combine a measured guess against. He's built his brand off the public polling system from 2008, but it's changed since then.

 

None of the aggregators do this, and it's sorta BS to fault 538 for not doing it either. At this point, you're only guessing how people voted early based on their registered party affiliation and their race or gender based on comparisons to past years. It's some good info, but trying to use it to tweak all of the rest of the polls is probably not a good idea.

 

Nate's model has other problems that causes way too much uncertainty, but that isn't one of them.

[LittleHurt05]

I was thinking about voting early on Saturday. They had it at a library near me. My wife voted early last week. The line on Saturday was at least a block long. I was amazed. So I passed. It usually isn't very long when I go in the regular place. I just wanted to be done with it.

 

I keep hearing about these extremely long lines, I've never experienced that. When I normally vote, it takes about 8 minutes. This year I early voted at my kid's preschool, it took 5 minutes.

[StrangeSox]

early voting was on the ballot in Maryland in '08 IIRC and that is the last time I've been to vote on Election Day. Since then I've early voted in '10, '12, and '14. I find the experience to be overrated, the line is hundreds of people long (looks like one of those problematic lines they show you on TV from Florida or Ohio). In 2012 I went there in the first quarter of the Bears-Panthers game and by the time I got back home the game had been over for about an hour.

 

I guess it'd be convenient if I couldn't vote on Election Day but from now on I'm just gonna keep voting before I go to work.

 

Voting by mail weeks ahead of time is maybe a little anticlimatic but it's so ridiculously easy.

[StrangeSox]

I keep hearing about these extremely long lines, I've never experienced that. When I normally vote, it takes about 8 minutes. This year I early voted at my kid's preschool, it took 5 minutes.

 

It's always more of an issue in bigger cities, and especially in heavily Democratic areas in Republican-run states.

[lostfan]

It's hard to blame Silver for running his system the way he does. He's left a lot of room for error for himself if Trump becomes President.

 

 

I voted two weeks ago, but I'm really interested to see how crazy the lines get in swing states. It would be a real shame if people like you never get to exercise their civic duties.

 

Election Day needs to be a national holiday on the order of Christmas. Everyone needs to be afforded the right to vote without worrying about lines getting into their hectic lives.

 

The GOP would never go for it, seeing as there are a lot more Dems than Republicans nationally.

If not a national holiday, then it should be on a Saturday. Given that Article II of the Constitution doesn't say it has to be on a Tuesday and we haven't been an agrarian society for over a century now, there's really no reason Congress couldn't move it. If they wanted to.

[lostfan]

It's always more of an issue in bigger cities, and especially in heavily Democratic areas in Republican-run states.

A big city should ideally have dozens, or hundreds of precincts open on Election Day. It's pretty easy to f*** with that if you want to.

[StrangeSox]

If not a national holiday, then it should be on a Saturday. Given that Article II of the Constitution doesn't say it has to be on a Tuesday and we haven't been an agrarian society for over a century now, there's really no reason Congress couldn't move it. If they wanted to.

NPR had a segment on this over the weekend. People generally worked most of the week and definitely on Saturdays and would worship on Sunday. You'd be harvesting through October and you'd start prepping for your next crops in a few weeks, so the first Tuesday in November was really the best downtime for everyone.

 

But yeah that was back when we were like 90% agrarian.

[bmags]

I think if we get past the politics around early vote, I think the 2 weeks prior to ED plus regular ED (for the sentimentalist) should work well.

 

This is the first time where it's hard for me, having a newborn. We voted on Saturday to make sure it wasn't a struggle to wake up and get moving in the morning on Tuesday.

[southsider2k5]

I think if we get past the politics around early vote, I think the 2 weeks prior to ED plus regular ED (for the sentimentalist) should work well.

 

This is the first time where it's hard for me, having a newborn. We voted on Saturday to make sure it wasn't a struggle to wake up and get moving in the morning on Tuesday.

 

We have something like a month of early voting in Indiana. It hasn't helped turnout at all. Turnout revolves around the candidates.

[lostfan]

We have something like a month of early voting in Indiana. It hasn't helped turnout at all. Turnout revolves around the candidates.

GOTV operations are fundamentally different for Dems vs GOP. Dems are usually in dense urban areas, Republicans are in suburban and rural areas as a rule of thumb, so Dems do these things in shifts and try to get as many people to vote before the actual election day. Not as much of a factor with Republicans, they're not out canvassing neighborhoods for several hours at a time, it wouldn't really be a productive use of their time. I'm oversimplifying but I think that's the gist.

[southsider2k5]

GOTV operations are fundamentally different for Dems vs GOP. Dems are usually in dense urban areas, Republicans are in suburban and rural areas as a rule of thumb, so Dems do these things in shifts and try to get as many people to vote before the actual election day. Not as much of a factor with Republicans, they're not out canvassing neighborhoods for several hours at a time, it wouldn't really be a productive use of their time. I'm oversimplifying but I think that's the gist.

 

Being in an extremist Democratic town and county (we literally haven't had a Republican elected to a local office since before the Bears won a Super Bowl) I am truly familiar with their operations. Heck, they pull vans up to all of the nursing homes, bus people from the factories (well the ones that are left) and anything else they can do for a vote. But we still have horrible turn out numbers. Really the numbers aren't much better for the state or the nation.

[bmags]

I'm not sure "increased turnout" is even a mandatory goal for updating election restrictions, making it more convenient for people to vote (even if they would have anyway) is also nice.

[lostfan]

Being in an extremist Democratic town and county (we literally haven't had a Republican elected to a local office since before the Bears won a Super Bowl) I am truly familiar with their operations. Heck, they pull vans up to all of the nursing homes, bus people from the factories (well the ones that are left) and anything else they can do for a vote. But we still have horrible turn out numbers. Really the numbers aren't much better for the state or the nation.

f***ing Iran has turnout numbers that blow ours out of the water. Their off-year elections are higher than our record turnout (2008).

[southsider2k5]

I'm not sure "increased turnout" is even a mandatory goal for updating election restrictions, making it more convenient for people to vote (even if they would have anyway) is also nice.

 

Honestly I don't care about it either way, but when the conversations turns to a holiday or moving the date being something that would increase turnout, I don't see it being true. Even with having an entire month to vote early, people still don't make the effort. I don't see any of the other solutions around changing the election date fixing anything either. People who want to vote, figure it out. Those that don't make up excuses to not vote.

[southsider2k5]

f***ing Iran has turnout numbers that blow ours out of the water. Their off-year elections are higher than our record turnout (2008).

 

Our numbers are embarassing. Our off Presidential primary drew under 20%! Yeah, well that is how you end up with Trump and Clinton on top of the ballot.

[StrangeSox]

f***ing Iran has turnout numbers that blow ours out of the water. Their off-year elections are higher than our record turnout (2008).

 

NPR had another show I was listening to while driving back and forth to the hardware store for the fourth time this weekend on the history of voter participation

 

http://backstoryradio.org/shows/pulling-th...ing-in-america/

 

[lostfan]

Honestly I don't care about it either way, but when the conversations turns to a holiday or moving the date being something that would increase turnout, I don't see it being true. Even with having an entire month to vote early, people still don't make the effort. I don't see any of the other solutions around changing the election date fixing anything either. People who want to vote, figure it out. Those that don't make up excuses to not vote.

Honestly I'm not even going that far. Voting on Tuesday is personally inconvenient and annoying to ME. And I'm about as reliable a voter as a 67-year white man from Tennessee who watches Fox News 5 hours a day.

[illinilaw08]

Honestly I don't care about it either way, but when the conversations turns to a holiday or moving the date being something that would increase turnout, I don't see it being true. Even with having an entire month to vote early, people still don't make the effort. I don't see any of the other solutions around changing the election date fixing anything either. People who want to vote, figure it out. Those that don't make up excuses to not vote.

 

People shouldn't have to wait in line for 3 hours on a work day to vote. I think it's as simple as that.

 

Colorado mails out ballots a month early and has a number of drop off points for ballots if you'd rather not put them in the mail. That made voting extremely convenient for me this year.

[bmags]

Honestly I don't care about it either way, but when the conversations turns to a holiday or moving the date being something that would increase turnout, I don't see it being true. Even with having an entire month to vote early, people still don't make the effort. I don't see any of the other solutions around changing the election date fixing anything either. People who want to vote, figure it out. Those that don't make up excuses to not vote.

 

Yeah. I mean, I think it's obvious if you were starting a system for voting *today* you would likely not choose the first tuesday in november, but providing early vote with an ample array of places seems like a good enough system.

[bmags]

OTOH Brazil mandates voting and that is a much worse system.

[Brian]

We get two hours paid time off tomorrow to go vote. Of course I voted early before I knew. SMH

[lostfan]

OTOH Brazil mandates voting and that is a much worse system.

My logic for that is "if 40% of people can't be bothered to vote, and you force them to, what kind of s***bags would they vote for?

 

Then I saw that people freely nominated Donald Trump so now I'm not so sure.

[StrangeSox]

OTOH Brazil mandates voting and that is a much worse system.

 

I think most of SA and Australia have compulsory voting.

 

An over-emphasis on Presidential races definitely doesn't help "off" year turnout.

[southsider2k5]

People shouldn't have to wait in line for 3 hours on a work day to vote. I think it's as simple as that.

 

Colorado mails out ballots a month early and has a number of drop off points for ballots if you'd rather not put them in the mail. That made voting extremely convenient for me this year.

 

They don't. Pretty much everywhere has some form of early voting, even if it is an absentee ballot.