I think the Sox should lose a lot of games. People say itsomething OK as long your pick is top10 and that is not wrong but the higher the pick gets the higher the difference in value.

 

The difference between 20th and 10th pick is much smaller than between 10 and 1. Of course plenty of times the number 1 pick busts and the 3 becomes a star but statistically the number 1 overall pick is by far the most valuable.

 

 

For example the 10th picks produces 6 war over the control years on average which isn't even a league average player and the number 1 overall produces 20 war which is a star player.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/

 

That doesn't mean the 10th player can't become a hall of famer but the chances are statistically much lower. Also every draft pick higher means more pool money which allows for more overslot signings in later rounds (for example difference between first and second overall is more than a million which basically is another second round pick).

 

Of course the rebuild still doesn't hinge on one pick and the Sox can still succeed if the become 7th but the worse you are the the higher the incentive to be really big because the difference between 6th and 12th is not as significant as 6th vs 1st.

 

So the Sox shouldn't lose on purpose but it wouldn't be the worst thing if they make it all the way to first or second overall.

I think the Sox should lose a lot of games. People say itsomething OK as long your pick is top10 and that is not wrong but the higher the pick gets the higher the difference in value.

 

The difference between 20th and 10th pick is much smaller than between 10 and 1. Of course plenty of times the number 1 pick busts and the 3 becomes a star but statistically the number 1 overall pick is by far the most valuable.

 

 

For example the 10th picks produces 6 war over the control years on average which isn't even a league average player and the number 1 overall produces 20 war which is a star player.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/

 

That doesn't mean the 10th player can't become a hall of famer but the chances are statistically much lower. Also every draft pick higher means more pool money which allows for more overslot signings in later rounds (for example difference between first and second overall is more than a million which basically is another second round pick).

 

Of course the rebuild still doesn't hinge on one pick and the Sox can still succeed if the become 7th but the worse you are the the higher the incentive to be really big because the difference between 6th and 12th is not as significant as 6th vs 1st.

 

So the Sox shouldn't lose on purpose but it wouldn't be the worst thing if they make it all the way to first or second overall.

 

Even if we trade nearly all veteran players I do not think the White Sox will be the worst team in baseball. San Diego is trying hard to win less than 50 games with that starting rotation

#TrustTheProcess

Just an FYI but Keith Law doesn't think Beer is the top prospect for his draft year

Just an FYI but Keith Law doesn't think Beer is the top prospect for his draft year

Who's his guy?

Who's his guy?

Whiskey.

 

I'll see myself out.

#TrustTheProcess

Uh, noooooooo. Not ready to "trust" the Sox' brain trust just yet. Don't forget, the reason for the need for this rebuild is the abject failure of the team at both the Major and minor league level the past eight years for which the current front office is responsible. "Trust" is the last thing they've earned.

 

Now "guarded optimism", based on the encouraging early results of the rebuild, that feels the more appropriate approach to take with this front office.

 

 

Edited January 26, 20179 yr by Thad Bosley

Who's his guy?

 

Didn't mention in his chat

Even if we trade nearly all veteran players I do not think the White Sox will be the worst team in baseball. San Diego is trying hard to win less than 50 games with that starting rotation

 

Maybe not but still picking second to third is a big advantage over picking like 5 to 8th. Just look at the 2015 draft were swanson, bregman, tucker and benintendi went off the board before the sox picked.

 

Of course hindsight is always smarter and there is no guarantee the sox would have picked one of them but at least they would have had more options if they drafted second or third. Those late top 10 picks is usually were you start to accept some warts (either a very good player with non perfect tools or guys with tools but some need for polish), while at the top you often can get the complete package of tools and polish. Not saying you cant occasionally get such a guy later (trout) but the numbers get worse.

Edited January 26, 20179 yr by GermanSock

Uh, noooooooo. Not ready to "trust" the Sox' brain trust just yet. Don't forget, the reason for the need for this rebuild is the abject failure of the team at both the Major and minor league level the past eight years for which the current front office is responsible. "Trust" is the last thing they've earned.

 

Now "guarded optimism", based on the encouraging early results of the rebuild, that feels the more appropriate approach to take with this front office.

 

Reasonable comment and way to look at things in my opinion.

 

Mark

 

Just an FYI but Keith Law doesn't think Beer is the top prospect for his draft year

 

I dont either after talking to people and seeing some of the other guys in that class.

I dont either after talking to people and seeing some of the other guys in that class.

 

I'm not doubting you, but could you post some links about the 2018 draft? It would be interesting to read about.

 

I'm also on the side where I think its a little silly to get stuck on one player who is still 2 full college seasons away from being drafted.

Uh, noooooooo. Not ready to "trust" the Sox' brain trust just yet. Don't forget, the reason for the need for this rebuild is the abject failure of the team at both the Major and minor league level the past eight years for which the current front office is responsible. "Trust" is the last thing they've earned.

 

Now "guarded optimism", based on the encouraging early results of the rebuild, that feels the more appropriate approach to take with this front office.

 

I am going to go ahead and give some good faith and will to this new version of the front office. It's clear who's running the shots now.

I'm not doubting you, but could you post some links about the 2018 draft? It would be interesting to read about.

 

I'm also on the side where I think its a little silly to get stuck on one player who is still 2 full college seasons away from being drafted.

 

Look up Joe Gray, Brice Turang and Jarred Kelenic.