1 hour ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Cruz is taking some pretty big gambles in his approach choices in his race against O'Rourke. That tells me his internal polling is showing a very tight race. If he was comfortable, he wouldn't be taking these risks. Not sure Beto can win, but I'm pretty confident it's going to be close.

 

What kind of risks is he taking?

Our NY Times live poll is madness.

46 minutes ago, Reddy said:

Our NY Times live poll is madness.

What does your race look like and what does the Illinois sixth congressional district’s look like?

Iowa 1st:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/iowa/1/

Abby Finkenauer (D)

 

 

55.4

 

29 in 30
(96.8%)

Rod Blum (R)Incumbent

 

 

41.7

 

1 in 30
(3.2%

 

 

Illinois 6th:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/illinois/6/

My guess is that there's just too much upper class tax cut beneficiaries in the district that are gonna keep voting R, but Casten does have a shot. One thing to keep in mind is that Illinois is gerrymandered by Democrats, so that does result in a whole bunch of suburban R votes being packed into one or two districts so that D's can more easily win the rest of them.

 

Peter J. Roskam (R)Incumbent

 

 

51.8

 

7 in 10
(68.8%)

Sean Casten (D)

 

 

48.2

 

3 in 10
(31.2%)

16 hours ago, The Beast said:

What kind of risks is he taking?

Nothing really out of the normal for Republicans.  Typical stuff like O'Rourke is going to turn the state gay and ban BBQ. 

 

26 minutes ago, GoSox05 said:

Nothing really out of the normal for Republicans.  Typical stuff like O'Rourke is going to turn the state gay and ban BBQ. 

 

As is normal for this state, Quinnipiac just released a poll where they switched from registered voters to likely voters and, in no small part because this state makes it really really tough for anyone but the "Right kinda people" to vote, Cruz's lead in that case skyrocketed.

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

As is normal for this state, Quinnipiac just released a poll where they switched from registered voters to likely voters and, in no small part because this state makes it really really tough for anyone but the "Right kinda people" to vote, Cruz's lead in that case skyrocketed.

Yeah, I'm not too excited about this one.  I O'Rourke, but come election day there is going to be a lot of "sorry your name is not in the voter roll" or "we closed this polling station, you have use the one 100 miles away".

Edited September 19, 20187 yr by GoSox05

Polling out of Texas is also not finding an uptick in voting enthusiasm among the latinx population, so that hurts his chances.

4 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Polling out of Texas is also not finding an uptick in voting enthusiasm among the latinx population, so that hurts his chances.

However, Nate Cohn suggested that this is not abnormal this far out from the election, and that the hispanic vote tends to break late and towards Dems. He said Dems in hispanic-heavy districts will likely seem further behind now than they will be come election day.

14 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Iowa 1st:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/iowa/1/

Abby Finkenauer (D)

 

 

55.4

 

29 in 30
(96.8%)

Rod Blum (R)Incumbent

 

 

41.7

 

1 in 30
(3.2%

 

 

Illinois 6th:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/illinois/6/

My guess is that there's just too much upper class tax cut beneficiaries in the district that are gonna keep voting R, but Casten does have a shot. One thing to keep in mind is that Illinois is gerrymandered by Democrats, so that does result in a whole bunch of suburban R votes being packed into one or two districts so that D's can more easily win the rest of them.

 

Peter J. Roskam (R)Incumbent

 

 

51.8

 

7 in 10
(68.8%)

Sean Casten (D)

 

 

48.2

 

3 in 10
(31.2%)

As a native of IA-1, its got way more people willing to vote democrat than people would ever imagine.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ia01-1.html 

NY Times/Siena live poll has Finkenauer leading by 14 pts.

Florida Gov race getting real bad. Love that this is called a "racial controversy," still can't just say what it is. 

 

 

@Reddy

 

 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/o-rourke-leading-cruz-2-163048000.html

First polling with O’Rourke leading...still don’t trust it quite yet, because the GOP is desperately trying to save Cruz, Heller and McSalley, with the TN race wide open right now.

online only poll

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/o-rourke-leading-cruz-2-163048000.html

First polling with O’Rourke leading...still don’t trust it quite yet, because the GOP is desperately trying to save Cruz, Heller and McSalley, with the TN race wide open right now.

Bredesen is very popular in TN, despite being a Dem. I think he's got a good shot to pull that one out. If I had to bet, I'd definitely take him.

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

online only poll

Yup, not a poll worthy of consideration.

Bredesen's a former governor there that was term-limited out and left fairly popular while Marsha Blackburn is not particularly well liked even in a pretty Republican state.

I thought online polls have improved in quality quite a bit since the dark days of Zogby? The Reuters/Ipsos poll is a legitimate scientific survey, not some garbage online "opinion poll," at least. It's getting harder and harder to get usable response rates from phone polls. That said, I still don't buy Beto being ahead and think Cruz will win by a couple of points.

more for @Reddy

34 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Bredesen's a former governor there that was term-limited out and left fairly popular while Marsha Blackburn is not particularly well liked even in a pretty Republican state.

I thought online polls have improved in quality quite a bit since the dark days of Zogby? The Reuters/Ipsos poll is a legitimate scientific survey, not some garbage online "opinion poll," at least. It's getting harder and harder to get usable response rates from phone polls. That said, I still don't buy Beto being ahead and think Cruz will win by a couple of points.

They are better, but they also when they are an outlier should be treated skeptically. This is clearly an outlier.

yikes

 

 

 

Can’t wait to see if he decides to “soldier on” like Collins, Hunter and Joe Moore...

Can someone with a finance background explain this to me? Is this really an issue or is this just business?

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/casten-shades-truth-story-about-business-meltdown

 

3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

 

Indiana looks forward to JB's election.  The exodus out of the state is going to really accelerate with all of the new taxation that is coming.

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Indiana looks forward to JB's election.  The exodus out of the state is going to really accelerate with all of the new taxation that is coming.

If you want good things, you have to pay for them. I gladly pay higher taxes to live in Chicago versus Indiana. Well see what happens, but anything is better than Rauner.