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10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It’s a bizarre environment that’s confounding even the most seasoned economists and investors: an unusual mix of sentiment seen in 1999, just before the dot-com bust, the period a decade ago after the 2008-09 financial crisis, and the early years of the roaring 20s after the pandemic a century ago that concluded with the crash of 1929.

The perfect “Goldilocks” scenario could still arrive: faster economic growth with limited inflation, perhaps gently letting the air out of the biggest bubbles. But darker scenarios exist, including a big spike in inflation, a popping of all of the bubbles at once — with big risks for investors who got overextended — and an economic recovery that hits turbulence.

 

Another quote from previous article...do we still have another 10-15% run in the stock market due to huge earnings growth (and even more stimulus spending, not to mention IRS refunds catching up) in the second half of the year, or do inflation/interest rate fears and irrational exuberance finally catch up and knock everyone back for a loop?

Pretty amazing to think we were nearing Dow 18k roughly a year ago.

The answer: 1.9 trillion more coming

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8 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

The answer: 1.9 trillion more coming

Yep - it really isn't much more than that to be honest. Printing money inflates assets. Stocks are inflating - commodities are generally going up - everything goes up ... minus salaries and hourly wages sadly. Most corporations are just going to give you 1-3% raises --- if that --- and the regular joe loses out. The hourly workers get hit even harder. Meanwhile the corporations/CEO's etc. do fine because their compensation is really more so driven by stock price - so they get even more of a windfall because of this. It's not reversing anytime soon because there's really just a giant disconnect. Ultimately i think these type of decisions are going to lead to a downfall. I'm not sure that downfall is very close though - I think this can continue for another 3-8 years. In a way, it has been going on really since 2008, so there's run in this type of economics. Just think it ultimately tumbles.

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1 hour ago, BrianAnderson said:

Yep - it really isn't much more than that to be honest. Printing money inflates assets. Stocks are inflating - commodities are generally going up - everything goes up ... minus salaries and hourly wages sadly. Most corporations are just going to give you 1-3% raises --- if that --- and the regular joe loses out. The hourly workers get hit even harder. Meanwhile the corporations/CEO's etc. do fine because their compensation is really more so driven by stock price - so they get even more of a windfall because of this. It's not reversing anytime soon because there's really just a giant disconnect. Ultimately i think these type of decisions are going to lead to a downfall. I'm not sure that downfall is very close though - I think this can continue for another 3-8 years. In a way, it has been going on really since 2008, so there's run in this type of economics. Just think it ultimately tumbles.

Yes.  There’s still time to not get left behind.  Ignore the guy that wants to talk about CPI- well actually if he starts talking, listen, and then do the exact opposite of everything he says.  

Edited by Jerksticks
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3 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Yep - it really isn't much more than that to be honest. Printing money inflates assets. Stocks are inflating - commodities are generally going up - everything goes up ... minus salaries and hourly wages sadly. Most corporations are just going to give you 1-3% raises --- if that --- and the regular joe loses out. The hourly workers get hit even harder. Meanwhile the corporations/CEO's etc. do fine because their compensation is really more so driven by stock price - so they get even more of a windfall because of this. It's not reversing anytime soon because there's really just a giant disconnect. Ultimately i think these type of decisions are going to lead to a downfall. I'm not sure that downfall is very close though - I think this can continue for another 3-8 years. In a way, it has been going on really since 2008, so there's run in this type of economics. Just think it ultimately tumbles.

Social Capital Hedosophia Technology $600M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closed: Virgin Galactic 2017
Social Capital Hedosophia II Technology $360M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closed: Opendoor Technologies 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia III Technology $720M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closed: Clover Health 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia IV Technology $460M Chamath Palihapitiya no Seeking Target 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia IX Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia V Technology $805M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closing: SoFi Technologies 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia VI Technology $1.15B Chamath Palihapitiya no Seeking Target 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia VII Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia VIII Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia X Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia XI Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia XII Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
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9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:
Social Capital Hedosophia Technology $600M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closed: Virgin Galactic 2017
Social Capital Hedosophia II Technology $360M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closed: Opendoor Technologies 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia III Technology $720M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closed: Clover Health 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia IV Technology $460M Chamath Palihapitiya no Seeking Target 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia IX Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia V Technology $805M Chamath Palihapitiya no Closing: SoFi Technologies 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia VI Technology $1.15B Chamath Palihapitiya no Seeking Target 2020
Social Capital Hedosophia VII Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia VIII Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia X Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia XI Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021
Social Capital Hedosophia XII Undisclosed Undisclosed Chamath Palihapitiya no Planning IPO 2021

I need context on that. 

Chamath's head is in the right place, his execution has been strong as well. He's no dummy - striking while the irons hot. He also at least has a strong conviction and are picking companies that generally lead to a better future. I can't say im a huge fan of him levering his name and stature which is leading to inflated prices that aren't tied to results at all. I personally like the dude, but haven't blindly followed all of his SPAC's. 

I get his idea behind SPAC's which is there has been way too much consolidation - which is true - and will continue. cheap money leads to consolidation. less risk to integrate as efficient. leaves more wiggle room when its cheap. it also leads to inflated sale prices. less companies to trade on stock market and SPAC are allowing a work through to get more companies out to market. its the pendulum swinging the other way. probably an overcorrection that will come back towards middle over time. 

 

I'm on MP Materials and Desktop Metal - i've eyed opendoor and sofi .... haven't been convinced yet. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/10/2021 at 12:15 PM, bigruss said:

Well, today is fucking crazy in the GME world.  Got up to 350ish, then dropped in about 3 minutes to under 200, then up back to 260.  Lots of halted trading.

It's hurting one of my ETFs.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

This is confusing to me. How does it treat best buy?

They are sticks and bricks with Home Depot, Macy’s, Dollar General, Auto Zone, etc. long on Amazon, Grub Hub, Etsy, Chewy, etc.

I took a deeper look and they seem to have gotten out of the GME saga by January. I haven’t been watching too closely. CLIX if you are interested. 

They also offer an all on line fund and a all against traditional retail fund. It fits in my high risk high rewards niche. 

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On 3/12/2021 at 2:48 PM, caulfield12 said:

Not going to feel too bad if he’s legitimately worth $100-125 million, but this seems like a terrible investment approach for those with net worth in the single millions or below.

He's even admitted his liquidity isn't that high. Said he rents his NY apartment. That said it doesn't really much matter ... banks will line up to give him loans collateralized by his stock ownership in PENN. 4 more years in he'll be able to cash out some of his PENN stock. Seeing as the deal went down at like $20 and its at $120 now? He's likely got $100mm+ in stock. Should be easy to find via SEC filings. Regardless to any of that - the stock buying thing is really a marketing tool just like all the other stuff he does - he's trying to mold himself and his brand as a mix between Jimmy Buffett/Margaritaville and Howard Stern of the internet. He's selling a lifestyle brand mixed with a reality TV/shock jock/podcast mold. You might even throw in a ESPN type look. These young players all grew up on barstool and would rather jump on there. Like or hate Barstool its really only going to go up. more and more states have no revenues and need them badly which will lead to legalizing sports gambling which means more $$ for Penn. The media/podcast thing will continue to grow. The reality show angle will continue to grow. The lifestyle brand too. 

 

Plus if GME tanks 10% it's 100k, not the end of the day, espeically with the capital he has put in & the money he's likely made over the last year. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
18 hours ago, bigruss said:

Perfect example, Goldman doesn't trust Hwang back to his time with Tiger but can't resist missing out on all the deals finally pulls trigger. 
 

A disciple of hedge-fund legend Julian Robertson, Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang shuttered Tiger Asia Management and Tiger Asia Partners after settling an SEC civil lawsuit in 2012 accusing them of insider trading and manipulating Chinese banks stocks. Hwang and the firms paid $44 million, and he agreed to be barred from the investment advisory industry.

He soon opened Archegos -- Greek for “one who leads the way” -- and structured it as a family office.

Family offices that exclusively manage one fortune are generally exempt from registering as investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. So they don’t have to disclose their owners, executives or how much they manage -- rules designed to protect outsiders who invest in a fund. That approach makes sense for small family offices, but if they swell to the size of a hedge fund whale they can still pose risks, this time to outsiders in the broader market.

“This does raise questions about the regulation of family offices once again,” said Tyler Gellasch, a former SEC aide who now runs the Healthy Markets trade group. “The question is if it’s just friends and family why do we care? The answer is that they can have significant market impacts, and the SEC’s regulatory regime even after Dodd-Frank doesn’t clearly reflect that.”

...

One reason is that Hwang never filed a 13F report of his holdings, which every investment manager holding more than $100 million in U.S. equities must fill out at the end of each quarter. That’s because he appears to have structured his trades using total return swaps, essentially putting the positions on the banks’ balance sheets. Swaps also enable investors to add a lot of leverage to a portfolio.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-world-greatest-hidden-fortunes-002617417.html

Edited by caulfield12
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On 3/19/2021 at 4:14 AM, BrianAnderson said:

He's even admitted his liquidity isn't that high. Said he rents his NY apartment. That said it doesn't really much matter ... banks will line up to give him loans collateralized by his stock ownership in PENN. 4 more years in he'll be able to cash out some of his PENN stock. Seeing as the deal went down at like $20 and its at $120 now? He's likely got $100mm+ in stock. Should be easy to find via SEC filings. Regardless to any of that - the stock buying thing is really a marketing tool just like all the other stuff he does - he's trying to mold himself and his brand as a mix between Jimmy Buffett/Margaritaville and Howard Stern of the internet. He's selling a lifestyle brand mixed with a reality TV/shock jock/podcast mold. You might even throw in a ESPN type look. These young players all grew up on barstool and would rather jump on there. Like or hate Barstool its really only going to go up. more and more states have no revenues and need them badly which will lead to legalizing sports gambling which means more $$ for Penn. The media/podcast thing will continue to grow. The reality show angle will continue to grow. The lifestyle brand too. 

 

Plus if GME tanks 10% it's 100k, not the end of the day, espeically with the capital he has put in & the money he's likely made over the last year. 

Penn National has the ability to pay an additional $62 million in three years to bring its stake up to 50%. After the initial deal closed, The Chernin Group's 60% stake had been reduced to 36%, matching Penn National's stake. The remaining 28% is still owned by Portnoy and a few key executives like CEO Erika Nardini.

As of right now, Penn National is worth $17 billion.  That Penn stock of Portnoy’s has risen in value from $28 million to roughly $75 million right now ($37 to $100ish).

 

WYOMISSING, Pa.--()--Penn National Gaming, Inc. (PENN: Nasdaq) (“Penn National” or the “Company”) today completed its previously announced acquisition of a 36% interest in Barstool Sports, Inc. (“Barstool Sports”) for total consideration of approximately $163 million, comprised of approximately $135 million in cash and $28 million in non-voting convertible preferred stock.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200220005183/en/Penn-National-Gaming-Completes-Acquisition-of-36-Interest-in-Barstool-Sports-for-163-Million

Edited by caulfield12
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  • 3 weeks later...

For anybody interested in crypto but that does not want to put in the deep research, a company called Humbl is the first to have a Crypto ETX/ETF approved in the US. It buys and sells certain coins based on Artificial Intelligence and trends. It's a bit of a pain to sign up but easy once finished and available to buy on Coinbase, Binance and Bittrex. The gains have been great.  

Humblpay.com and go to the financial section. I'd also suggest looking into the company itself and ticker $HMBL - they have incredible potential, were just featured on CNBC and partnered with multiple athletes and celebrities as they evolve from early stages of a super app on the Blockchain.

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Speaking of Bitcoin, had a "flash crash" over the weekend over a matter of an hour from $58k down to $51K.

 

Last week crypto enthusiasm seemed to reach a peak as trading platform Coinbase went public at a valuation of $86 billion, followed by a wild 500% rally in Dogecoin — an asset that was created as a joke in 2013. Cryptocurrency backers have spent years insisting that bitcoin, ethereum and other digital coins could revolutionize the world of finance, and with the success of Coinbase's Wall Street debut Wednesday, those backers are finally having their moment.

Tesla has started accepting bitcoin payments for its cars and now holds some of the digital currency on its balance sheet. Payment processors including PayPal (PYPL), Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are trying to streamline crypto payments on their networks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs will reportedly soon offer its private wealth management clients avenues to invest in bitcoin and other digital currencies and Morgan Stanley announced that it will offer its wealthy clients access to bitcoin funds.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/18/business/bitcoin-sharp-fall/index.html

 

A $1000 bet on Dogecoin could now buy a Tesla

 

Bitcoin has an energy problem

According to one estimate, the process of mining bitcoins and keeping the network running uses more energy than Belgium in a year. CNN's Clare Sebastian reports on the network's vast energy usage.

Edited by caulfield12
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SPAC Wipeout Is Punishing Followers of Chamath Palihapitiya

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spac-wipeout-punishing-followers-chamath-130000409.html

Just as Chamath Palihapitiya was the face of the SPAC frenzy that gripped financial markets at the start of the year, he is today the face of the bust.

All six of Palihapitiya’s Social Capital Hedosophia-linked blank-check companies, including three that already completed mergers, have plunged more than the broader SPAC market since it hit its peak in mid-February. One of them -- Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc., a space tourism business that’s backed by Richard Branson -- is down more than 50%. All of these losses are greater than the 23% average decline in SPACs, as measured by the IPOX SPAC Index, over that time.

The collapse in special purpose acquisition companies -- oddball financial structures with a niche role in markets before the recent boom -- came as part of a broader cooling of speculative mania in markets. Just a couple weeks earlier, the fever in meme stocks had finally broken. So, too, in penny stocks. Too much supply is part of what did SPACs in. Dozens of new deals -- many of them minted by celebrities -- were hitting the market each and every week.

Days before the rout began, Palihapitiya, a 44-year-old venture capitalist with a flair for self-promotion, proclaimed he was poised to be the Warren Buffett of his generation. “Nobody’s going to listen to Buffett,” he said in a Feb. 8 Bloomberg “Front Row” interview. “But there has to be other folks that take that mantle.”
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Timelines. Everybody is too obsessed with the day in and day out returns. Zoom out. 

SPAC's go up and Chamath is a genius. SPAC's go down and Chamath is dumb. It's neither. SPAC's, especially the ones he's focused on are going to be inherently more risky. He's taking companies in earlier stages of their life cycle public. So the upside to SPAC's is you're part of the seeding rounds in a way, instead of the value of hte company being continuously driven up over years before it goes public, through SPAC's (or at least the ones Chamath is doing) you're sharing on some of the upside of being involved earlier on. But like anything with higher upside, the risk is higher, so the downside is also higher. Take MP Materials for example. That's not a short term buy. Rare earth metal demand isn't going to spike and give returns immediately because it has Chamath tied to it. The long term value is that most rare earth metals are controlled by China or Africa, via China again. China has basically played their hand very well on this angle. A company like MP is going to be a very important company for EV manufacturing along with other infrastructure. It's a supply/demand issue and will play out over many years. Same with SoFI, longer term play. Desktop Metal - again, another long term play. Time horizons need to be looked at when evaluating investments. Some of these will hit, some will fail. But saying Chamath's SPAC's are a bust because of a stock market price is misleading. 

Now SPAC's in general? I mean everybody has to do their own research. The SPAC market is way too hot and was way too hot. That was not a result of anything other than cheap capital driven by money printing. It was a perfect time for companies to raise capital and go public. Why not? If you have enough uneducated fools chasing every SPAC you'd be dumb not to. It's like when AMC raised money with a share offering. Would be dumb not to take advantage of a meme stock uprising. 

In regards to Bitcoin flash crash ... I don't really want to go down that rabbit hole again on this thread. Bitcoin is now trading exactly what it was one week ago. Last i checked that isn't a crash. 

Doge? it's a meme crpyto that's inherently inflationary based on supply. 10 individuals own 40%+ of the supply. it's very akin to the meme stocks and will end poorly. i actually don't doubt it will hit $1-4 in 2021, but at a certain point it will crash based on fundamentals. 

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6 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Timelines. Everybody is too obsessed with the day in and day out returns. Zoom out. 

SPAC's go up and Chamath is a genius. SPAC's go down and Chamath is dumb. It's neither. SPAC's, especially the ones he's focused on are going to be inherently more risky. He's taking companies in earlier stages of their life cycle public. So the upside to SPAC's is you're part of the seeding rounds in a way, instead of the value of hte company being continuously driven up over years before it goes public, through SPAC's (or at least the ones Chamath is doing) you're sharing on some of the upside of being involved earlier on. But like anything with higher upside, the risk is higher, so the downside is also higher. Take MP Materials for example. That's not a short term buy. Rare earth metal demand isn't going to spike and give returns immediately because it has Chamath tied to it. The long term value is that most rare earth metals are controlled by China or Africa, via China again. China has basically played their hand very well on this angle. A company like MP is going to be a very important company for EV manufacturing along with other infrastructure. It's a supply/demand issue and will play out over many years. Same with SoFI, longer term play. Desktop Metal - again, another long term play. Time horizons need to be looked at when evaluating investments. Some of these will hit, some will fail. But saying Chamath's SPAC's are a bust because of a stock market price is misleading. 

Now SPAC's in general? I mean everybody has to do their own research. The SPAC market is way too hot and was way too hot. That was not a result of anything other than cheap capital driven by money printing. It was a perfect time for companies to raise capital and go public. Why not? If you have enough uneducated fools chasing every SPAC you'd be dumb not to. It's like when AMC raised money with a share offering. Would be dumb not to take advantage of a meme stock uprising. 

In regards to Bitcoin flash crash ... I don't really want to go down that rabbit hole again on this thread. Bitcoin is now trading exactly what it was one week ago. Last i checked that isn't a crash. 

Doge? it's a meme crpyto that's inherently inflationary based on supply. 10 individuals own 40%+ of the supply. it's very akin to the meme stocks and will end poorly. i actually don't doubt it will hit $1-4 in 2021, but at a certain point it will crash based on fundamentals. 

Well, the problem is that every athlete/celebrity/social media has one now...it's especially hard for even more sophisticated investors to parse through this stuff.  Definitely not for short-term, in/out or day traders looking to make a quick profit.

That said, the majority of individual investors aren't putting $1 million into little baskets of future explosive growth all over the place...it's the ones with at least $100 million in net worth, investment banks/hedge funds driving all this, am I right?

 

Everything's gone crazy.  Even JP Morgan Chase is now involved with their own version with that $6+ billion loan for the European Super League for soccer/football.

 

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Don't disagree there at all. There's way too much liquidity in the markets. Eventually it all will even itself out and many will get burned. Investing isn't easy - especially if trying to pick out individual stocks, spacs, cryptos, etc. etc. etc. 

Right now we are definitely amidst a very, very frothy environment that will have correction. The best method is likely to just place in funds & let it sit for long term. You lose out on the upside, but protect from the downside. 

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Capital gains tax proposal should be fun ... 

 

With all the excess spending, taxation, liquidity, stimulus, civil unrest, leverage, etc. etc I have a feeling that these next 10-20 years are going to be a wildly chaotic time. In general that should lead to tons of opportunity if you know where to find it, but have a feeling it's going to be a very bumpy ride leading to ultimately a very different looking economy, global landscape, etc.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Huge day for the meme stonks.

AMC up huge.

GME up pretty well.

RKT up big.

Nok, PLTR, BB all with strong days.  

 

Not sure if shorts got margin called or what, but yea some got squeezed today.

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