I think he would be worth the gamble, if he comes in at around 15M AAV or less

Edited December 13, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

I think he’ll be cheaper than that on AAV basis, but how high is the posting fee supposed to go? 

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think he’ll be cheaper than that on AAV basis, but how high is the posting fee supposed to go? 

An extra 20M on top of the contract. 

 

Edited December 13, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

Fuck it. Do it.

33 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

An extra 20M on top of the contract. 

 

Not anymore, 20% of the contract value I believe.

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not anymore, 20% of the contract value I believe.

Really, even better. They should get this guy. 

I would be interested, and with the new posting agreement the fee is only a percentage of the contract, so nothing crazy, but it doesn't seem like the Sox have any interest. There have been a ton of teams connected to him either by having scouts at his games or people speculating who he will meet with and I have never seen the Sox be mentioned. Even if we were interested, it sounds like he prefers the west coast and especially San Francisco, who have a mutual interest in him. 

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not anymore, 20% of the contract value I believe.

 https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/yusei-kikuchi-to-be-posted-for-mlb-teams-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-japanese-lefty/

• Contract worth $25 million or less: 20 percent of total guarantee
• Contract worth $25 million and $50 million: $5 million plus 17.5 percent of amount over $25 million (it probably should say contract worth between 25 and 50M)
• Contract worth $50 million: $9.375 million plus 15 percent of amount over $50 million

He has 30 days to sign from when he was posted which was Dec, 4 so he;ll be signed by early January. Boras is his agent.

 

My guess is Kikuchi signs in the between $25M and $50M range. Offer 4/36 see if he bites. 2019 will be his age 28 season Posting fee on that is $5M and 17.5 % of $11M.so another $1.925M so approx.  $7M posting fee for a $36M contract.

Has shoulder issues not very durable prefers West coast. Sox probably no interest but same agent as Harper so he might come up in coversation.

Edited December 13, 20187 yr by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

I was big on taking a gamble on him until I saw he’s had arm issues already. I assume teams get to do their own medicals before signing? Or would we have to go by medicals we are given?

12 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

An extra 20M on top of the contract. 

 

Just for the record I think it's irresponsible to start a thread on the guy and give out false info on the posting fee when it took me about a minute to find it on google.

30 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/yusei-kikuchi-to-be-posted-for-mlb-teams-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-japanese-lefty/

• Contract worth $25 million or less: 20 percent of total guarantee
• Contract worth $25 million and $50 million: $5 million plus 17.5 percent of amount over $25 million (it probably should say contract worth between 25 and 50M)
• Contract worth $50 million: $9.375 million plus 15 percent of amount over $50 million

He has 30 days to sign from when he was posted which was Dec, 4 so he;ll be signed by early January. Boras is his agent.

 

My guess is Kikuchi signs in the between $25M and $50M range. Offer 4/36 see if he bites. 2019 will be his age 28 season Posting fee on that is $5M and 17.5 % of $11M.so another $1.925M so approx.  $7M posting fee for a $36M contract.

Has shoulder issues not very durable prefers West coast. Sox probably no interest but same agent as Harper so he might come up in coversation.

I think he signs closer to $50M than $25M if we’re assuming a six year deal.  He’s a guy I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on if the medicals look alright, but based on Hahn’s comments I think he has bigger ambitions for next year.

26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think he signs closer to $50M than $25M if we’re assuming a six year deal.  He’s a guy I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on if the medicals look alright, but based on Hahn’s comments I think he has bigger ambitions for next year.

I picked a figure pretty much right in the middle 36 + $7 posting fee equals $43M with the $7M going to his former team. I think 6yrs is too high for him but you never know . Maybe 5 max with team option for a sixth. Very doubtful the Sox have any interest in him at all nor he in the Sox.

As you know I have said next year was going to be the go after a starting pitcher year. The Nova signing all but confirmed it.

Edited December 13, 20187 yr by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

It would be a good signing if the Sox were competitive in 2019, but given what we know about pitchers coming from Asia, his arm is likely to fall off by 2020.

2 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said:

It would be a good signing if the Sox were competitive in 2019, but given what we know about pitchers coming from Asia, his arm is likely to fall off by 2020.

All indications are that he prefers to sign with a team on the West Coast. I do not think the White Sox are really a fit for him.

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Just for the record I think it's irresponsible to start a thread on the guy and give out false info on the posting fee when it took me about a minute to find it on google.

I was confident that was correct info, had no idea the posting system had been changed. Why would you look up something you were pretty sure you already knew?

Edited December 13, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

22 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I was confident that was correct info, had no idea the posting system had been changed. Why would you look up something you were pretty sure you already knew?

Because it takes a minute to go from pretty sure you knew to being correct. I knew it was wrong because I had done previous research on Kikuchi and anyone making a thread on acquiring him should probably know the facts about him.

I’ve seen about fifteen Kikuchi starts over the last two seasons. 

He’s good. His release point reminds me a lot of Rodon, his slider (at its best) reminds me a lot of Kluber, and to my eyes, he tunnels well. He’s got a loopier curve and a splitter as well. Media reports on his velocity are overblown — if he can touch 97, I’ve never seen it in a game. He sits in the low 90s and ramps it up to the mid 90s when he needs to reach back. Unlike a lot of Japanese pitchers, he’s not afraid to throw the heater upstairs. 

There are a LOT of miles on his arm for his age. NPB aces routinely throw 30-50 more pitches in a start than MLB guys do. Also, premium young talent tends not to spend much time in the minors —he’s pitched 7-8 seasons in the NPB already. He’s had minor but recurring shoulder issues. 

Look, I’d love to get him. I think he’s a solid #3 over here with some upside. But there are simply too many teams on him right now. The winning bid is going to be full market value from a contender that thinks he’s more of a #2. For the Sox to BEAT that Would be to take a lot of risk on an arm with veteran miles on it that has reached its peak already. 

As fun as it would be for me (a big NPB fan), I just don’t see it happening. And I can’t blame our FO.

On 12/13/2018 at 9:00 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

I think he signs closer to $50M than $25M if we’re assuming a six year deal.  He’s a guy I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on if the medicals look alright, but based on Hahn’s comments I think he has bigger ambitions for next year.

I think it’s going to be higher than that. I have some good firsthand info that I can’t repeat. But if it lands at 50m, I’ll be surprised and upset that the Sox wouldn’t beat it. 

 

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

What if he ends up signing for as little as Maeda did? I would definitely have interest for sure.

I think he's a great fit, but if the West Coast rumors are true, it could be tough.