5/27 Games

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

As of a week ago he has hit 13 balls with an exit velocity over 95 mph.  That falls in the lowest 5% of all minor leaguers.  

Yea it's bad.  He makes Rutherford's physical profile look like late career Barry Bonds.

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

As of a week ago he has hit 13 balls with an exit velocity over 95 mph.  That falls in the lowest 5% of all minor leaguers.  

Where did you get this and please share leaderboard please.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

29 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You don't draft #4 overall and expect a utility infielder.  I don't GAF about his strikeout rate in high A as a 22 year old repeater given his other batted ball data is downright bad.  His quality of contact is garbage as evidenced by his pull rate and BABIP and ISO.   

And he'd have to be an elite defensive 2B (top 5 in MLB) to carry 2 WAR with a 280/330/350 line.  

It's sad that's already what his median case scenario looks like.

I liked the pick but right now it looks bad.  As I said the other day it's going "to get late early" for Madrigal next year if he's a 23 year old struggling in AA.  We really have to hope he makes a big jump sometime in the next year to get back on a prospect track.  He's got work to do.

By all accounts, he is elite defensively at 2b. Ian Kinsler posted a 2.3 fWAR last season with a 681 OPS.  I’d like to think Madrigal is a better defender and base runner than a 35/36 year old Ian Kinsler.

[mqr]

14 hours ago, fathom said:

again, mock drafts don't mean anything in terms of prospect rankings.  Everyone had the Sox linked to Madrigal, Bohm or Singer because of their preference for college players.  There was some smoke for Kelenic earlier in the process with regards to the Sox, but that quickly vanished and rumors were they didn't consider him at all down the stretch.

But Madrigal has also been rated higher than any of those guys in early prospect rankings, no?

[OneDog847]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

As of a week ago he has hit 13 balls with an exit velocity over 95 mph.  That falls in the lowest 5% of all minor leaguers.  

Good God. Is this really true? 

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

By all accounts, he is elite defensively at 2b. Ian Kinsler posted a 2.3 fWAR last season with a 681 OPS.  I’d like to think Madrigal is a better defender and base runner than a 35/36 year old Ian Kinsler.

Fangraphs rated Kinsler as the #2 fielding 2b in baseball in 2018, so you really are looking at a defensive ceiling there. Similar numbers - Yolmer in 2017 (although playing more than 1 position). 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Fangraphs rated Kinsler as the #2 fielding 2b in baseball in 2018, so you really are looking at a defensive ceiling there. Similar numbers - Yolmer in 2017 (although playing more than 1 position). 

From all reports Madrigal is that good defensively at 2b. 60/50/60 run/arm/field. Not sure if the advanced metrics play this out but his fielding percentage thus far in the minors is pristine and his range factor is also very good. On the bases, he has 20 SB’s in A+ In less than a half season worth of games. Supposed to be a heady player which should reflect well on his fielding and baserunning metrics as well. I see no reason why he can’t perform at a 2018 Kinsler rate in those two areas - defense and baserunning. A 681 OPS on offense isn’t some unreachable number either.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

From all reports Madrigal is that good defensively at 2b. 60/50/60 run/arm/field. Not sure if the advanced metrics play this out but his fielding percentage thus far in the minors is pristine and his range factor is also very good. On the bases, he has 20 SB’s in A+ In less than a half season worth of games. Supposed to be a heady player which should reflect well on his fielding and baserunning metrics as well. I see no reason why he can’t perform at a 2018 Kinsler rate in those two areas - defense and baserunning. A 681 OPS on offense isn’t some unreachable number either.

For a guy who is putting up a .700 OPS in A-ball, yeah a .680 OPS in the big leagues in a couple years is plausible, but even with the better baserunning you've now set the ceiling of this player as a 2.5-ish fWAR guy, and if he gets hurt or sloppy some year and isn't the best defender in the league or best baserunner in the league, then you suddenly are very disappointed.

When we had 2017 Yolmer, he was a nice little player, but we weren't exactly penciling him in as a major piece long-term. That's a utility guy or a guy stuck at the back of your order that you replace if you have the chance, just like Yolmer. And to extend the comparison - if anything goes wrong, like this year - well then you're screaming to get that guy out of the lineup ASAP. 

This is not selling me on the player very well, this is telling me that we need to look elsewhere for 2b help and if this guy does come around there's no harm in making him a utility guy since even if everything went great he's not that good of a player.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

For a guy who is putting up a .700 OPS in A-ball, yeah a .680 OPS in the big leagues in a couple years is plausible, but even with the better baserunning you've now set the ceiling of this player as a 2.5-ish fWAR guy, and if he gets hurt or sloppy some year and isn't the best defender in the league or best baserunner in the league, then you suddenly are very disappointed.

When we had 2017 Yolmer, he was a nice little player, but we weren't exactly penciling him in as a major piece long-term. That's a utility guy or a guy stuck at the back of your order that you replace if you have the chance, just like Yolmer. And to extend the comparison - if anything goes wrong, like this year - well then you're screaming to get that guy out of the lineup ASAP. 

This is not selling me on the player very well, this is telling me that we need to look elsewhere for 2b help and if this guy does come around there's no harm in making him a utility guy since even if everything went great he's not that good of a player.

I’m setting a 680 OPS ish as the likely outcome, not the ceiling. Even a marginal improvement there via a slight increase in power, let’s say to 725 OPS, makes him a 3-4 WAR player. Yolmer is a career 657 OPS guy. If Madrigal becomes that then he too is no more than a solid utility player on a good team. We’ll see but I’m confident he hasn’t tapped out his power potential yet. He needs to start taking those Altuve “vitamins” 😉

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m setting a 680 OPS ish as the likely outcome, not the ceiling. Even a marginal improvement there via a slight increase in power, let’s say to 725 OPS, makes him a 3-4 WAR player. Yolmer is a career 657 OPS guy. If Madrigal becomes that then he too is no more than a solid utility player on a good team. We’ll see but I’m confident he hasn’t tapped out his power potential yet. He needs to start taking those Altuve “vitamins” 😉

I'm totally in agreement on this and have been saying it since the offseason - the #1 thing we need from Madrigal is to see improvement in the power numbers and unless we see that he's really not worth this much attention. 

[Moan4Yoan]

12 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

As of a week ago he has hit 13 balls with an exit velocity over 95 mph.  That falls in the lowest 5% of all minor leaguers.  

It sure seems like this is due to his hitting strategy and never wanting to K.  Not going to have high exit velocity or hit many extra base hits and homeruns if you cut down on your swing and almost always swing for contact.  I wonder if he will ever learn the fine balance of the two types of swings based on the situation and/or count.

Edited May 29, 2019 by Moan4Yoan