November 7, 20196 yr 3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Price was no where near a 2 WAR pitcher this year. He accumulated 2.3 WAR in just 100 IP. Price has never had a FIP above 4.02. The demise of David Price has been greatly exaggerated because of his market and contract. Price and Benetendi for 32 million is more valuable than Cole for 32 million imo. I don't think it straps the Sox at all. "Price was no where near a 2 WAR pitcher, he accumulated 2 WAR." Seriously, health does count on this. I'd still do that deal, but you can't tell me a guy who accumulated 2 WAR is "no where near a 2 WAR pitcher" when 2 of the last 3 years he's put up 2-ish WAR due to injuries. IF we can't keep him healthy then he's an expensive Carlos Rodon.
November 7, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Price was on a 4.5 WAR pace this year. He's no longer a star, but he certainly is still a + starter who would liking get 20+ million a year if he was a FA. He's probably overpaid by about 30 million so Benetendis surplus value would negate that difference and the sox should only have to give up a middling prospect. Fine, but pace is hypothetical/theoretical and actual results count, too. By that theory, Tatis is runaway Rookie of the Year over Alonso. In reality, he’s 34 and has just 6.2 over the last three years....so you’re willing to pay $15 million/fWAR (that’s roughly the production from 2017-19) and hope/pray that Price puts up a 4 and Benintendi a 3? Is that worth it to spend $40 millionish on 7 fWAR. Definitely...But what about just just 3.5-5? Well, now most are turning around arguing that Cole or Betts is more likely to consistently put up 6+ fWAR seasons at $35 million, right? And you’re left with how much money to spend on the rest of the FA’s? $10 million? $15? $20 million? Do you honestly think we can or will add $70 million in just one offseason?
November 7, 20196 yr Crazy idea: Which contract would Boston like to move more...David Price...or Chris Sale? I'm out.
November 7, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: "Price was no where near a 2 WAR pitcher, he accumulated 2 WAR." Seriously, health does count on this. I'd still do that deal, but you can't tell me a guy who accumulated 2 WAR is "no where near a 2 WAR pitcher" when 2 of the last 3 years he's put up 2-ish WAR due to injuries. IF we can't keep him healthy then he's an expensive Carlos Rodon. WAR is a rate base statistic. Stating someone is a 2 WAR player is discussing their talent level being of 2 WAR caliber. Prices talent level was that of a 4.5 WAR player, not a 2 WAR player. Someone would replace Price when he was hurt - if that happens. Yes, injuries would be a concern but you're trading for his talent level. His talent level is that of an above average MLB starter. If he gets hurt hes not being replaced by nobody. I understand why sox fans could fear his replacement being a Dylan covey level bad but if the sox go into next season with 6 starters they'd be replacing Price with a reynaldo lopez/michael kopech - not a Dylan Covey. This means prices WAR rate is more important than his total WAR through 106 innings. Edited November 7, 20196 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run
November 7, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: Crazy idea: Which contract would Boston like to move more...David Price...or Chris Sale? I'm out. Pretty sure they’d take Eeovaldi over Sale, as well. There’s too many potential ways that blows up in their face to make it even worth contemplating. Lets not forget, you’ve just given the Red Sox the ability to retain Betts...so that’s yet another team the White Sox have to get through to arrive at another World Series. When we won it last time, we dumped three larger salaries and spread it across something like 8 new players. This is the exact opposite approach...
November 7, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Crazy idea: Which contract would Boston like to move more...David Price...or Chris Sale? I'm out. I think they'd rather move Price. 5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Fine, but pace is hypothetical/theoretical and actual results count, too. By that theory, Tatis is runaway Rookie of the Year over Alonso. In reality, he’s 34 and has just 6.2 over the last three years....so you’re willing to pay $15 million/fWAR (that’s roughly the production from 2017-19) and hope/pray that Price puts up a 4 and Benintendi a 3? Is that worth it to spend $40 millionish on 7 fWAR. Definitely...But what about just just 3.5-5? Well, now most are turning around arguing that Cole or Betts is more likely to consistently put up 6+ fWAR seasons at $35 million, right? And you’re left with how much money to spend on the rest of the FA’s? $10 million? $15? $20 million? Do you honestly think we can or will add $70 million in just one offseason? Rates are not hypothetical. They are based on outcomes. Yes, they can absolutely spend 70 million in one offseason. that would only out their payroll around 130 million.
November 7, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Crazy idea: Which contract would Boston like to move more...David Price...or Chris Sale? I'm out. I mean the real answer is dustin pedroia But I would take that contract from Sale. I also would take that Price/Benintendi deal but that reminds me quite a bit of the mets deal last year and I think you are still parting with more pain than people anticipate.
November 7, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: WAR is a rate base statistic. Stating someone is a 2 WAR player is discussing their talent level being of 2 WAR caliber. Prices talent level was that of a 4.5 WAR player, not a 2 WAR player. Someone would replace Price when he was hurt - if that happens. Yes, injuries would be a concern but you're trading for his talent level. His talent level is that of an above average MLB starter. If he gets hurt hes not being replaced by nobody. I understand why sox fans could fear his replacement being a Dylan covey level bad but if the sox go into next season with 6 starters they'd be replacing Price with a reynaldo lopez/michael kopech - not a Dylan Covey. This means prices WAR rate is more important than his total WAR through 106 innings. You can't replace David Price with a guy who is already in your rotation, especially if Kopech is on an innings limit. You've spent $32 million on David Price next year, where are you getting the money to sign a guy good enough to move Lopez permanently to the bullpen? You might get lucky and Dunning or Rodon could be that injury replacement, but if one happens early in the year, it's Coveytime.
November 7, 20196 yr Just now, Balta1701 said: You can't replace David Price with a guy who is already in your rotation, especially if Kopech is on an innings limit. You've spent $32 million on David Price next year, where are you getting the money to sign a guy good enough to move Lopez permanently to the bullpen? You might get lucky and Dunning or Rodon could be that injury replacement, but if one happens early in the year, it's Coveytime. This is where our sweet sweet boy danny salazar comes in.
November 7, 20196 yr Just now, bmags said: I mean the real answer is dustin pedroia But I would take that contract from Sale. I also would take that Price/Benintendi deal but that reminds me quite a bit of the mets deal last year and I think you are still parting with more pain than people anticipate. Just because the Metropolitans did something stupid doesn't mean we have to. The other comp here is the Adrian Gonzalez deal, where the Dodgers basically gave the Red Sox nothing IIRC.
November 7, 20196 yr Just now, Balta1701 said: Just because the Metropolitans did something stupid doesn't mean we have to. The other comp here is the Adrian Gonzalez deal, where the Dodgers basically gave the Red Sox nothing IIRC. Well that's not the point, rather that people often think removing salary from a team is worth more than it is. The Red Sox would not part with benintendi and price and just say thank you for taking the salary off them. They'd just as soon, in my guess, swap price for a lesser priced, poor contract veteran than just completely lose both to replace them with FAs.
November 7, 20196 yr Steamer projects Benetendi and Price to combine for a 5.0 WAR. It uses 29 starts for price. Giving up nothing would still require financial relief. And with what they pay to attend games, good like getting the fanbase to accept giving up Benetendi as part of a salary dump. Edited November 7, 20196 yr by Dick Allen
November 7, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, bmags said: Well that's not the point, rather that people often think removing salary from a team is worth more than it is. The Red Sox would not part with benintendi and price and just say thank you for taking the salary off them. They'd just as soon, in my guess, swap price for a lesser priced, poor contract veteran than just completely lose both to replace them with FAs. Removing that salary from Boston could very well be worth more than it was to Seattle due to the Tax and the multi-year repeater issues...and due to the impending Betts FA. Seattle didn't need to do that deal. Boston...they might need to do something like this.
November 7, 20196 yr 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: You can't replace David Price with a guy who is already in your rotation, especially if Kopech is on an innings limit. You've spent $32 million on David Price next year, where are you getting the money to sign a guy good enough to move Lopez permanently to the bullpen? You might get lucky and Dunning or Rodon could be that injury replacement, but if one happens early in the year, it's Coveytime. Obviously Price would just be one of two acquisitions. Youd kill two birds with one stone, youd be acquiring a young cost controlled asset for 4 years. In reality youd be spending about 17/per on price and 17/per for benetendi. Those are fair rates and the team fills two holes without giving up anything of value. I would still assume the Sox would sign another starter in the middle tier; therefore they'd enter the year with 6 starters. That would allow you to not only control kopech and ceased innings, but also Price.
November 7, 20196 yr Just now, Dick Allen said: Steamer projects Benetendi and Price to combine for a 5.0 WAR. It uses 29 starts for price. Giving up nothing would still require financial relief. But they're being paid $37 million give or take.
November 7, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Just because the Metropolitans did something stupid doesn't mean we have to. The other comp here is the Adrian Gonzalez deal, where the Dodgers basically gave the Red Sox nothing IIRC. Yes, and it ended up turning the entire Dodgers organization around. Crawford was fine for them and A gone had a couple really nice years.
November 7, 20196 yr 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: But they're being paid $37 million give or take. In 2020. So still around the going rate. Pretty good chance Price only declines moving forward and the 29 starts in 2020 is pretty optimistic.
November 7, 20196 yr LA took on $250 million dollars 7 years ago, and AGon was market priced at the time. Benintendi is underpriced. Boston is also not in a binary world where this is the only deal possible to get out from their salary issues. They can likely shed much of the price salary without giving up a young cheap asset. OR they can give a non-ML roster asset.
November 7, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, bmags said: LA took on $250 million dollars 7 years ago, and AGon was market priced at the time. Benintendi is underpriced. Boston is also not in a binary world where this is the only deal possible to get out from their salary issues. They can likely shed much of the price salary without giving up a young cheap asset. OR they can give a non-ML roster asset. The Price contract is not going to be easily for the to move, especially with a weak farm system. Boston is not in great shape moving forward, with tons of money owed to a handful of players.
November 7, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, bmags said: OR they can give a non-ML roster asset. They're about where we were a few years ago; they really don't have anyone left in their system that anyone cares about. They cleaned it out to win that title. MLB.com ranked them 30th out of 30 franchises after the trade deadline. Dombrowski effect.
November 7, 20196 yr 16 minutes ago, bmags said: I mean the real answer is dustin pedroia But I would take that contract from Sale. I also would take that Price/Benintendi deal but that reminds me quite a bit of the mets deal last year and I think you are still parting with more pain than people anticipate. I'd say a young RF (who had one rough year) is more valuable than a elite closer. AND Price>Cano.
November 7, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, bmags said: LA took on $250 million dollars 7 years ago, and AGon was market priced at the time. Benintendi is underpriced. Boston is also not in a binary world where this is the only deal possible to get out from their salary issues. They can likely shed much of the price salary without giving up a young cheap asset. OR they can give a non-ML roster asset. They're problem is they really dont have any non-MLB assets; Dombrowski was their fearless leader so its always safe to say that dealing Dave traded every young asset they had.
November 7, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: They're problem is they really dont have any non-MLB assets; Dombrowski was their fearless leader so its always safe to say that dealing Dave traded every young asset they had. Boston is screwed from the standpoint they do not have any payroll flexibility to improve the roster, and their farm is one of the thinnest in the entire league. They are not good enough to contend in 2020 onward, but strapped with huge money owed to aging players. Cannot picture the Sox being willing to take on Price's contract. Just does not make sense. Edited November 7, 20196 yr by steveno89
November 7, 20196 yr Hypothetically, if it was Price + Benintendi for Bummer and Stiever, no money moving, how's that?
November 7, 20196 yr 16 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Yes, and it ended up turning the entire Dodgers organization around. Crawford was fine for them and A gone had a couple really nice years. That is a bit dramatic. They improved by 4 wins. Crawford was basically a 2 win player for then for a couple of years, Gonzalez a 3 win player, and Beckett an injured one. With the cash outlay it wasn't that great of a deal
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