9 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

My hatred is rational.

I don't hate the person or even the player really. I have always thought Madrigal will probably be a fine major league player.

However, there is no excitement for anything more from him. He hit 8HR's in 3 season in college with an aluminum bat.  He hit 4 in 2 seasons in the minors. He is now what 23.5 years old? He sort of is what he is.

Hahn has made some real head scratchers lately.

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Slappy McSlapperson, putting pressure on the D by putting the ball in play, slower than advertised running leading to fewer SB, etc. 

Yeah he had a .348 and .336 BABIP in AA and AAA. With an ISO of .110 and .093.

That won't be sustainable for his career.

41 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Yeah he had a .348 and .336 BABIP in AA and AAA. With an ISO of .110 and .093.

That won't be sustainable for his career.

BABIP numbers for a hitter with his profile are not equal to those who hit for less contact.

There are statistics that demonstrate his batting average should closely mirror his BABIP.

wrong thread

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by GermanSoxFan

50 minutes ago, hi8is said:

BABIP numbers for a hitter with his profile are not equal to those who hit for less contact.

There are statistics that demonstrate his batting average should closely mirror his BABIP.

Zips projects a .274 BABIP. Steamer .292.

Both have access to his batted ball data (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-madrigal/20521/stats?position=2B).

Personally, I am more bullish then his projection because they aren't projecting much 83 wRC+ for ZIPS and 95 wRC+ for steamer. I am an optimist by nature so I think he'll do better then that and like I said somewhere around Eckstein is his ceiling so if you want to talk projections fine but lets be honest about what they say

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by wrathofhahn

m4drig4l

9 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Zips projects a .274 BABIP. Steamer .292.

Both have access to his batted ball data (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-madrigal/20521/stats?position=2B).

Personally, I am more bullish then his projection because they aren't projecting much 83 wRC+ for ZIPS and 95 wRC+ for steamer. I am an optimist by nature so I think he'll do better then that and like I said somewhere around Eckstein is his ceiling but if you want to talk projections fine but lets be honest about what they say

Yea he’s not going to have numbers that low on either advanced stat line.

He’s a high contact hitter and is going to have a high BABIP - take Billy Hamilton for example... very high BABIP but he doesn’t hit the ball in play much.

Madrigal will hit the ball in play 9 out of 10 times... 3 of those 9 will find a hole and he’ll walk the other time.

Carrer .300+ BABIP, .300+ ave, and ~.400 obp.

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by hi8is

14 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Yea he’s not going to have numbers that low on either advanced stat line.

He’s a high contact hitter and is going to have a high BABIP - take Billy Hamilton for example... very high BABIP but he doesn’t hit the ball in play much.

Madrigal will hit the ball in play 9 out of 10 times... 3 of those 9 will find a hole and he’ll walk the other time.

Carrer .300+ BABIP, .300+ ave, and ~.400 obp. 

That is nuts.

Ichiro only had one OBP 400 plus season. Also with the way teams do infield placements now it's much harder to hit for those insane averages without power because managers don't care about respecting hitters and will bring their infields and outfields way in.

We will see but if he can hit for a .290 average with around a .340 OBP and .410 SLG percentage I'd be happy

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by wrathofhahn

34 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

That is nuts.

Ichiro only had one OBP 400 plus season. Also with the way teams do infield placements now it's much harder to hit for those insane averages without power because managers don't care about respecting hitters and will bring their infields and outfields way in.

We will see but if he can hit for a .290 average with around a .340 OBP and .410 SLG percentage I'd be happy

~ denotes “about” in the context of the OBP. Could mean .350. Could mean .365. Could mean .400.

Doesn't mean =

42 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

That is nuts.

Ichiro only had one OBP 400 plus season. Also with the way teams do infield placements now it's much harder to hit for those insane averages without power because managers don't care about respecting hitters and will bring their infields and outfields way in.

We will see but if he can hit for a .290 average with around a .340 OBP and .410 SLG percentage I'd be happy

The only thing nuts is your consistent poor baseball analysis.

8 minutes ago, Chisoxmb35 said:

The only thing nuts is your consistent poor baseball analysis.

Come on now, play nice fan with good taste in White Sox player lore.

Look at the career of Luke Appling. That’s best cast for Madrigal. He hit only 45 Home runs in what... 20 years?

He also hit over .300 and had a career obp of .399.

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by hi8is

13 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Look at the career of Luke Appling. That’s best cast for Madrigal. He hit only 45 Home runs in what... 20 years?

He also hit over .300 and had a career obp of .399.

If Madrigal hits .300 for his career, he’s going to have a very lengthy and successful career. He should be in the mid .300s for OBP with a .300 average so you’d be looking at a ~.700 OPS guy without any significant improvement in power. With his defense and baserunning that’s an easy 2-3 WAR/year average. If that’s your 9th place hitter, you’ve got a damn good lineup...

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Going back to 1990, the best #4 picks have been:

- Ryan Zimmerman (38.2 WAR)

- Alex Fernandez (28.5 WAR)

- Kerry Wood (23.9 WAR)

- Gavin Floyd (16.0 WAR)

- Kevin Gausman (13.7 WAR)

- Dmitri Young (12.5 WAR)

- Kyle Schwarber (9.3 WAR)

Only 5 made the All-Star team (and 3 of those were mediocre players in Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Jason Grilli).

Only 3 ever had a season worth 4 WAR or above. The history of #4 picks is very unremarkable. And it's not like the picks since 2010 who haven't had much time to make an impact are exactly killing it either. Only McKay and Schwarber have seemingly amounted to anything and it's obviously too early to say anything on McKay.

I can understand wanting a prospect with a higher ceiling at #4 but this idea that you're looking for a "generational hitter" is just being unrealistic.

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by OmarComing25

5 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Going back to 1990, the best #4 picks have been:

- Ryan Zimmerman (38.2 WAR)

- Alex Fernandez (28.5 WAR)

- Kerry Wood (23.9 WAR)

- Gavin Floyd (16.0 WAR)

- Kevin Gausman (13.7 WAR)

- Dmitri Young (12.5 WAR)

- Kyle Schwarber (9.3 WAR)

Only 5 made the All-Star team (and 3 of those were unremarkable players in Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Jason Grilli).

Only 3 ever had a season worth 4 WAR or above. The history of #4 picks is very unremarkable. And it's not like the picks since 2010 who haven't had much time to make an impact are exactly killing it either. Only McKay and Schwarber have seemingly amounted to anything and it's obviously too early to say anything on McKay.

I can understand wanting a prospect with a higher ceiling at #4 but this idea that you're looking for a "generational hitter" is just being unrealistic.

That's funny 4 of those guys played the majority of their careers in Chicago. (Floyd was taken by the Phillies though) 

Fernandez/Floyd for the Sox

Wood/Schwarber for the Cubs. 

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

4 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Going back to 1990, the best #4 picks have been:

- Ryan Zimmerman (38.2 WAR)

- Alex Fernandez (28.5 WAR)

- Kerry Wood (23.9 WAR)

- Gavin Floyd (16.0 WAR)

- Kevin Gausman (13.7 WAR)

- Dmitri Young (12.5 WAR)

- Kyle Schwarber (9.3 WAR)

Only 5 made the All-Star team (and 3 of those were unremarkable players in Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Jason Grilli).

Only 3 ever had a season worth 4 WAR or above. The history of #4 picks is very unremarkable. And it's not like the picks since 2010 who haven't had much time to make an impact are exactly killing it either. Only McKay and Schwarber have seemingly amounted to anything and it's obviously too early to say anything on McKay.

I can understand wanting a prospect with a higher ceiling at #4 but this idea that you're looking for a "generational hitter" is just being unrealistic.

This is my chief complaint about the “Madrigal wasn’t worthy of a #4 pick” crowd.  Just what do those detractors think the #4 pick does on average?

Those player have tools and high ceilings. I can draft and develop a league avgerage 2nd baseman with one of my other 39 picks.  

33 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Going back to 1990, the best #4 picks have been:

- Ryan Zimmerman (38.2 WAR)

- Alex Fernandez (28.5 WAR)

- Kerry Wood (23.9 WAR)

- Gavin Floyd (16.0 WAR)

- Kevin Gausman (13.7 WAR)

- Dmitri Young (12.5 WAR)

- Kyle Schwarber (9.3 WAR)

Only 5 made the All-Star team (and 3 of those were mediocre players in Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Jason Grilli).

Only 3 ever had a season worth 4 WAR or above. The history of #4 picks is very unremarkable. And it's not like the picks since 2010 who haven't had much time to make an impact are exactly killing it either. Only McKay and Schwarber have seemingly amounted to anything and it's obviously too early to say anything on McKay.

I can understand wanting a prospect with a higher ceiling at #4 but this idea that you're looking for a "generational hitter" is just being unrealistic.

Thing is, it’s not unreasonable to think Madrigal could end his career as #1 or #2 on that list. A consistent 2-3 WAR player for 10-12 years. Hard to be upset with that.

1 hour ago, Chisoxmb35 said:

The only thing nuts is your consistent poor baseball analysis.

I have been consistently right about Madrigal throughout this entire process about what kind of player I thought he was and what he will be. Others have also been consistently wrong.

This one isn't even difficult. Madrigal is not going to average a .400 OBP over his career. He just won't. Also the projections I posted earlier aren't even analysis they are what his projected stats are going forward based on the predictive modelling  of his minor league batted ball data and to be honest to me they seem low but I also recognize as a fan I tend to be overly optimistic too. The only difference is I don't have my head completely in the clouds like other posters.

49 minutes ago, asindc said:

This is my chief complaint about the “Madrigal wasn’t worthy of a #4 pick” crowd.  Just what do those detractors think the #4 pick does on average?

Like I said earlier it isn't about averaging out what you receive it's about taking your best guess and shooting for the stars with these top picks recognizing if they fail you can always find serviceable 2WAR guys with control via trade or if you are willing to spend a bit more FA.

As an example lets say you are presented with a 30 percent chance of getting a 6WAR player (or nothing) or a guaranteed chance of getting a 2WAR player with zero upside. What should you choose? Mathematically it maybe make sense to choose the 2WAR guy but you also have to account for cost opportunity and after looking at FA and seeing Machado get 10/300M does that change your thinking? When you see Starling Castro who has averaged around 2WAR the last 3 years get 2/12 does that change things?

Edited August 2, 20205 yr by wrathofhahn

4 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Those player have tools and high ceilings. I can draft and develop a league avgerage 2nd baseman with one of my other 39 picks.  

First of all, drafting and developing a league average player at any position is not easy for any team.

Secondly, high contact hitting, high OBP, and better than average defense are tools.

Thirdly, the failure rate on any baseball draft pick, including the 1st round picks, is so high that if you get an above average player from any pick you are beating the odds.  If Madrigal becomes a regular, he will have outperformed his draft position historically.  That enough is worthy of the pick.

4 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

I have been consistently right about Madrigal throughout this entire process about what kind of player I thought he was and what he will be. Others have also been consistently wrong.

This one isn't even difficult. Madrigal is not going to average a .400 OBP over his career. He just won't. Also the projections I posted earlier aren't even analysis they are what his projected stats are going forward based predictive modelling  of his minor league batted ball data and to be honest to me they seem low but I also recognize as a fan I tend to be overly optimistic too. The only difference is I don't have my head completely in the clouds like other posters.

Like I said earlier it isn't about averaging out what you receive it's about taking your best guess and shooting for the stars with these top picks recognizing if they fail you can always find serviceable 2WAR guys with control via trade or if you are willing to spend a bit more FA.

As an example lets say you are presented with a 30 percent chance of getting a 6WAR player (or nothing) or a guaranteed chance of getting a 2WAR player with zero upside. What should you choose? Mathematically it maybe make sense to choose the 2WAR guy but you also have to account for cost opportunity and after looking at FA and seeing Machado get 10/300M does that change your thinking? When you see Starling Castro who has averaged around 2WAR the last 3 years get 2/12 does that change things?

Was Kyle Schwarber an example of shooting for the stars at #4? I know most Sox fans were enamored with that pick. He hits a ton of bombs and yet he’s averaged ~2.5 WAR across 3.5 seasons and I think last year is about the best season you could ask from him.

1 minute ago, asindc said:

First of all, drafting and developing a league average player at any position is not easy for any team.

It's a hell of a lot easier than finding a superstar and they passed on that opportunity.  

 

2 minutes ago, asindc said:

Secondly, high contact hitting, high OBP, and better than average defense are tools.

They're not tools teams pay for at the top of the draft. 

 

3 minutes ago, asindc said:

Thirdly, the failure rate on any baseball draft pick, including the 1st round picks, is so high that if you get an above average player from any pick you are beating the odds.  If Madrigal becomes a regular, he will have outperformed his draft position historically.  That enough is worthy of the pick.

I disagree.  They lost an opportunity to draft a superstar.  

44 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Going back to 1990, the best #4 picks have been:

- Ryan Zimmerman (38.2 WAR)

- Alex Fernandez (28.5 WAR)

- Kerry Wood (23.9 WAR)

- Gavin Floyd (16.0 WAR)

- Kevin Gausman (13.7 WAR)

- Dmitri Young (12.5 WAR)

- Kyle Schwarber (9.3 WAR)

Only 5 made the All-Star team (and 3 of those were mediocre players in Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Jason Grilli).

Only 3 ever had a season worth 4 WAR or above. The history of #4 picks is very unremarkable. And it's not like the picks since 2010 who haven't had much time to make an impact are exactly killing it either. Only McKay and Schwarber have seemingly amounted to anything and it's obviously too early to say anything on McKay.

I can understand wanting a prospect with a higher ceiling at #4 but this idea that you're looking for a "generational hitter" is just being unrealistic.

Thanks for posting this. This is the hardest part I'm having with people complaining about Madrigal. Some seem to think the #4 pick is a slam dunk superstar, and that is just not the case.

He's a unique hitter, but I also don't get why elite defense and baserrunning don't get valued. And there is a long way to go here before we know what he is.

Reminds me a bit of some of the early discussions about limited upside on TA, as a hitter - some thought he couldn't hit for any power, and nobody thought he would be a batting champ. 

 

6 minutes ago, shakes said:

Thanks for posting this. This is the hardest part I'm having with people complaining about Madrigal. Some seem to think the #4 pick is a slam dunk superstar, and that is just not the case.

He's a unique hitter, but I also don't get why elite defense and baserrunning don't get valued. And there is a long way to go here before we know what he is.

Reminds me a bit of some of the early discussions about limited upside on TA, as a hitter - some thought he couldn't hit for any power, and nobody thought he would be a batting champ. 

 

I said at the time I liked the stuff of Stewart and Groshans hit tool with power at SS. I have no idea what happened to Stewart last I heard he had an arm injury and fell off the face of the world. Atlanta got it's pick back though.

Groshans is one of the top prospects in baseball and if we offered Madrigal for him the Blue Jays would laugh to our faces so lets not pretend there weren't options. High upside options which so far have paid dividends.

20 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's a hell of a lot easier than finding a superstar and they passed on that opportunity.  

 

They're not tools teams pay for at the top of the draft. 

 

I disagree.  They lost an opportunity to draft a superstar.  

Like Babe Ruth Schwarber