6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What is easier to teach Jack, above average to top tier spin rates or carry?

I honestly don't know but it seems like spin rate doesn't matter as much as carry. 

Giolito has average spin but elite carry and he generates tons of whiffs. 

Cease has elite spin but below average carry and he doesn't get nearly as many whiffs. 

 

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

yeah I can't think of many examples of where a really good pitcher was actually blocked. They tend to find a way.

No. But thats the wrong question. The questions is that if they have an in house prospect that is good enough to give a chance at the rotation, they can use the limited budget (you know JR is really going to restrict the budget next year) to acquire another player of greater need, maybe a RF.

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No argument. 6 of one 1/2 dozen of the other. Both are important. IMO they're 1A and 1B. 

Next time Giolito and Foster pitch watch where the ball is and watch the path of the bat from hitters when they throw their fastballs. It's huge. I honestly think that carry is more important than velocity to a certain degree. 93-94 with 10 inches of carry is better than 97-98 with 8.5 inches of carry. 

Carry is a type of fastball life and I don't think it's more effective than any other fastball life.  Carry, ride, bore, cut, tail, sink, fade, angle, run are all types of fastball life and all are equally effective if properly located.  

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I'll disagree with you here. Cease doesn't miss bats with his fastball like you think he should at 97mph. Neither did Lopez when he was healthy. Both had below average carry. 

My point is 99 with bad carry is still very hittable. 

At the same time, Giolito lost 1 mph on his fastball this year but is still generating tons of whiffs. He has elite carry. Watch the games, and the eye test verifies this. 

And Max Scherzer misses a ton of bats and has below average carry... so um, maybe it's related to command?

Throwing the ball where you want to is so much more important than anything else you mentioned. Jack, Cease had less carry last year by a good amount - well below league average - yet he got a whiff on 22% of his fastballs thrown. This year, Cease has gotten more carry and has gotten a whiff on 14.5% of them. I know you think you've found the secret solution to baseball pitching, but carry ain't it my man.

I remember when Giolito couldn't get a whiff to save his life. Ah well, back to the "the way things currently are I will proclaim as the way things will always be" show

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have seen the word "carry:" posted more times today than in the entire history of Soxtalk.

It's the latest "thing we can measure." It used to be called rise because the ball looked like it would rise compared to other pitches because it didn't drop as much (even though it does actually drop.) Just like a "tight spin" on any breaking pitch was always desired. It just talked about more because it can be measured.

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by ptatc

Just now, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Carry is a type of fastball life and I don't think it's more effective than any other fastball life.  Carry, ride, bore, cut, tail, sink, fade, angle, run are all types of fastball life and all are equally effective if properly located.  

yup.

carry really only matters/benefits if you live up in the zone with your fastball too.

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

yup.

carry really only matters/benefits if you live up in the zone with your fastball too.

Not necessarily. If the hitter expects the ball to drop below the zone and it stays in the zone, it could be good for backwards ks at the bottom of the zone. 

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

Just now, ptatc said:

It's the latest "thing we can measure." It used to be called rise because the ball looked like it would rise compared to other pitches because it didn't drop as much (even though it does actually drop.)

It's not really though, vertical drop has been measured since everything else started being measured. This is honestly nothing new; it's just that Fegan wrote an article about it today and now Jack believes it's the most important aspect of a fastball when it's not. 

You want to see why Cease's fastball doesn't generate enough swings and misses and K's: 

 

That's why. 1/2 of his fastballs aren't even competitive pitches. If

Sox are going to have to do something major with the pitching for the rebuild, or we're going to have to assume .500 will make the playoffs for some time to come IMO. The hitting is great, but our defense at some spots is suspect and our pitching is, let's face it, pretty abysmal if Lopez and Cease are just average. If money is an issue, trade Grandal to the Yankees this offseason to free up a little cash and load up on veteran pitching free agents.

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Not necessarily. If the hitter expects the ball to drop below the zone and it hits the bottom it could be good for backwards ks at the bottom of the zone. 

Jack there's a reason no one wants their four seamer down in the zone anymore, and it's not because it's a good pitch to get backwards K's on.

Give me Stroman. He’s not as good as Bauer but he’d be a solid #3 or #4 starter for this team. I also think his personality and energy would fit well in the clubhouse.

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jack there's a reason no one wants their four seamer down in the zone anymore, and it's not because it's a good pitch to get backwards K's on.

I know about launch angle etc. 

1 minute ago, greg775 said:

Sox are going to have to do something major with the pitching for the rebuild, or we're going to have to assume .500 will make the playoffs for some time to come IMO. The hitting is great, but our defense at some spots is suspect and our pitching is, let's face it, pretty abysmal if Lopez and Cease are just average. If money is an issue, trade Grandal to the Yankees this offseason to free up a little cash and load up on veteran pitching free agents.

Gary Sanchez says “ola!”

10 minutes ago, ptatc said:

No. But thats the wrong question. The questions is that if they have an in house prospect that is good enough to give a chance at the rotation, they can use the limited budget (you know JR is really going to restrict the budget next year) to acquire another player of greater need, maybe a RF.

I would think COVID has some sports owners concerned and would show up in budget. Maybe not. But we can't just assume it's ever going away. Seems every day the news is worse than the day before. At some point the tanked economy has to affect sports teams, doesn't it? Or are TV stations that make the huge deals exempt from recession/depression?

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by greg775

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's not really though, vertical drop has been measured since everything else started being measured. This is honestly nothing new; it's just that Fegan wrote an article about it today and now Jack believes it's the most important aspect of a fastball when it's not. 

You want to see why Cease's fastball doesn't generate enough swings and misses and K's: 

 

That's why. 1/2 of his fastballs aren't even competitive pitches. If

Its the how long it stays up before it drops that is the new part. That is the carry.

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jack there's a reason no one wants their four seamer down in the zone anymore, and it's not because it's a good pitch to get backwards K's on.

It's also hard to do. The increased spin rate is easier to maintain on pitches up in the zone.

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I know about launch angle etc. 

Carry matters up in the zone because you have to get your hands up through the ball. When a hitter is dropping the barrel down on the baseball, you don't want a ball to be rising into the zone; you want it to be falling out of the zone. The "carry" doesn't mean a low fastball comes up for a strike, it merely means it maintains itself in the zone where it is very hittable. You want low pitches falling out of the zone, not coming up into it.

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I know about launch angle etc. 

Yes upper cut.

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Its the how long it stays up before it drops that is the new part. That is the carry.

It's the same stat. Vertical drop measures the same thing. The baseball doesn't drop at an inconsistent rate; there's no such thing as late break in baseball. A break can be more intense due to the spin rate, but it won't break any later or earlier. 

Which is why carry is the same stat as measuring fastball vertical drop, just measured in a different way.

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

If Bauer, Stroman and Ray are the top tiers and that’s the extent of it...well, let’s just hope we make the playoffs and have the type of team that every competitor wants to be a part of.
 

Of special note is the two Yankees, Paxton and Tanaka.  If healthy, big big if, Paxton is close to great.  Yet one can’t help but think Tanaka is the one who ends up sticking around for one last contract.   So I’d pencil in Paxton as #4 for the Sox.

The ball stays on the same plane for a longer period of time.  That's carry or ride.  Pretty much the same thing.

https://www.mlb.com/news/al-central-trade-deadline-needs

White Sox: Is the rotation strong enough?
For a group taking that next step from three years of rebuilding, the obvious question is whether the White Sox can reach the postseason. But with the talent across their roster and an expanded postseason field, the White Sox definitely are contenders. They have the offensive depth from one through nine, but the real issue stems from how much they can rely upon their starting five.

Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel form a solid one-two punch at the top of the rotation, and Dylan Cease certainly has the ability of a top-tier starter. But the White Sox already have dealt with injuries to Reynaldo López and Carlos Rodón, moving Gio González from the long relief/spot-starter role into the rotation. General manager Rick Hahn believes López and Rodón will be back before the end of August, so don’t look for the White Sox to go outside of the organization to fill the spot, especially if it would require moving any of their core players to acquire a hurler. Dane Dunning, the team’s No. 8 prospect, could factor into this mix eventually. -- White Sox beat reporter Scott Merkin

Everyone can draw their own conclusions, but the decision by the org thus far to not call up Dunning suggests to me that they plan to have him be a part of the rotation for the foreseeable future.  If they were seriously thinking about signing a starter this offseason, why not call up Dunning now and give him 8-9 starts the rest of the year?  See what you have in him before signing a free agent.  He's clearly a better option today then the bullpen games the Sox are currently going with.  The only logical reasons I can think of for not calling him up now is (1) service time/super 2 considerations or (2) be careful with him to avoid injury.  Both reasons would indicate a plan for him to be a big part of the future of the team.

1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

Everyone can draw their own conclusions, but the decision by the org thus far to not call up Dunning suggests to me that they plan to have him be a part of the rotation for the foreseeable future.  If they were seriously thinking about signing a starter this offseason, why not call up Dunning now and give him 8-9 starts the rest of the year?  See what you have in him before signing a free agent.  He's clearly a better option today then the bullpen games the Sox are currently going with.  The only logical reasons I can think of for not calling him up now is (1) service time/super 2 considerations or (2) be careful with him to avoid injury.  Both reasons would indicate a plan for him to be a big part of the future of the team.

Hahn stated last week that he wasn't ready in terms of rehab and conditioning to join the team as a starter, but was expecting it to happen at some point during this season.