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Projecting fWAR near 1/3rd pole of season

Featured Replies

Moncada   6.0

Abreu/TA   3.9

Mercedes  3.3 (probably 3.6 or 3.9 after last night)

Robert       3.0 (from just one month)

Grandal     3.0

Madrigal   2.4

Eaton        2.1

Vaughn     1.8  (should end up higher, missed a lot of at-bats early)

Mendick    1.2

Hamilton   0.6

Collins       0.0

Leury        -0.6

 

 

Rodon   6.0

Lynn      3.9

Cease    3.6 or 3.9 (updates tmrw)

Kopech/Gio  2.7

Keuchel/Hendriks    1.5

Heuer       1.2

Ruiz, Crochet, Bummer    0.6

Foster     0.3

Marshall  -0.6

 

 

6war for Rodon would likely mean he would reject the QO right, can't imagine it would be enough for Boras.  6war, sheesh

Edited by joesaiditstrue

  • Author
6 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

6war for Rodon would likely mean he would reject the QO right, can't imagine it would be enough for Boras.  6war, sheesh

Yes, he will get a number of 2-4 year (max) offers from other teams...with top value likely to be around 4 and $70-85 million, depending upon how he finishes out the season and playoffs.

Giolito is going to be a tough one.

All things considered, Lynn is the best bet, but then you have his age...wondering when the "fall off a cliff" point is, his conditioning issues, allegations (like everyone in baseball) about movement/unnatural spin rates due to foreign substances.

 

Assuming the QO system is still around after the CBA is re-opened, we would at least get some compensation back for Rodon and Lynn via draft picks.

Edited by caulfield12

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, he will get a number of 2-4 year (max) offers from other teams...with top value likely to be around 4 and $70-85 million, depending upon how he finishes out the season and playoffs.

Giolito is going to be a tough one.

All things considered, Lynn is the best bet, but then you have his age...wondering when the "fall off a cliff" point is, his conditioning issues, allegations (like everyone in baseball) about movement/unnatural spin rates due to foreign substances.

 

Assuming the QO system is still around after the CBA is re-opened, we would at least get some compensation back for Rodon and Lynn via draft picks.

Lynn has already declined a QO. The White Sox can't offer him one.

  • Author
4 hours ago, credezcrew24 said:

Lynn has already declined a QO. The White Sox can't offer him one.

Oh, that’s right, so he has a lot of leverage with Hahn since Giolito and Rodon both would be really tough extensions.

  • Author

Moncada 6.6

Abreu 4.8

TA7  4.2

Mercedes/Grandal  3.3

Luis Robert  3.0

Madrigal  2.4

Eaton  2.1

Vaughn  1.8

Lamb  1.2

Mendick/Hamilton  0.9

Collins  0.0

Leury  -0.3

 

Rodon  6.0

Lynn  4.8

Cease 3.9

Giolito will be 3.0 or 3.3 after yesterday

Kopech 2.7

Hendriks  2.1

Heuer  1.2

Keuchel/Crochet/Ruiz/Bummer  0.6

Foster 0.3

Marshall 0.0

Crazy how many contributors this squad has all down the roster. Kudos to the FO so far they haven't just survived the bad injury blows they have thrived.

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Moncada 6.6

Abreu 4.8

TA7  4.2

Mercedes/Grandal  3.3

Luis Robert  3.0

Madrigal  2.4

Eaton  2.1

Vaughn  1.8

Lamb  1.2

Mendick/Hamilton  0.9

Collins  0.0

Leury  -0.3

 

Rodon  6.0

Lynn  4.8

Cease 3.9

Giolito will be 3.0 or 3.3 after yesterday

Kopech 2.7

Hendriks  2.1

Heuer  1.2

Keuchel/Crochet/Ruiz/Bummer  0.6

Foster 0.3

Marshall 0.0

Too bad Madrigal sucks.

  • Author
25 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Too bad Madrigal sucks.

I would imagine Madrigal is moving to a 2.7-3.0 projection after yesterday's DHer.

Updates in the morning...

On 5/28/2021 at 7:34 AM, joesaiditstrue said:

6war for Rodon would likely mean he would reject the QO right, can't imagine it would be enough for Boras.  6war, sheesh

Teams won't forget his injury history though. He has a good age but his injury history will drag him down. 

I think best case for him is what eovaldi got (4/70 or so). 

27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I would imagine Madrigal is moving to a 2.7-3.0 projection after yesterday's DHer.

Updates in the morning...

Guess it’s too bad Madrigal sucks more then.

  • Author
4 hours ago, hi8is said:

Guess it’s too bad Madrigal sucks more then.

New numbers updated...


Moncada 6.9

TA7  4.5

Grandal/Yermin   3.0

Madrigal    2.7

Eaton   2.4

 

Giolito   3.3

Crochet  0.9

What is McCann on pace for?

  • Author
1 minute ago, soxfan49 said:

What is McCann on pace for?

-0.3

Joc Pederson   0.0 

 

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

-0.3

Joc Pederson   0.0 

 

On the other hand our old friend Omar Narvaez is on pace for around 4.5.  Guess his defense has really improved good for him he could always hit.

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Madrigal    2.7

He sucks.

I don’t consider fWAR valuable for projecting a pace / rest of the season (simply multiplying current fWAR by (162 / games played).

Doesn’t take into account injuries and the inevitable slumps and hit streaks in a season, short changes players who started slow, exaggerates performance for a hot start.

Thought it was nonsense to multiply 2020 fWAR by 2.7 to state that was the players “true” 2020 season.

  • Author
20 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

On the other hand our old friend Omar Narvaez is on pace for around 4.5.  Guess his defense has really improved good for him he could always hit.

Don’t look at Semien, Bassitt, Eduardo Escobar, Padres, etc.

Omar Narvaez=3.8 fWAR (2019-21)

Alex Colome=0.8 fWAR

 

Frankie Montas=4.8 WAR (2018-21)

Bassitt=7.1 fWAR (with A’s)

 

Edited by caulfield12

I love these. Please keep them coming. 

  • Author
1 hour ago, roncag said:

I love these. Please keep them coming. 

Yet Another Ron?  Who’s next, LeFlore?  Blomberg?

Edited by caulfield12

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Yet Another Ron?  Who’s next, LeFlore?  Blomberg?

Swanson? 

29 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yet Another Ron?  Who’s next, LeFlore?  Blomberg?

I need to change my handle.....ughh

2 hours ago, roncag said:

I love these. Please keep them coming. 

Welcome to the forums good sir! Enjoy your stay!

14 minutes ago, roncag said:

I need to change my handle.....ughh

No you don't. You're in fine company. Ignore everything caulfield says. 

3 hours ago, roncag said:

I love these. Please keep them coming. 

Welcome to fucking Soxtalk! Can be combative.

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