Sox arbitration story...

[Lip Man 1]

Also has some interesting comments from Kevin Pillar:

https://soxmachine.com/2025/10/non-tender-deadline-looks-like-a-quiet-one-for-white-sox

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Also has some interesting comments from Kevin Pillar:

https://soxmachine.com/2025/10/non-tender-deadline-looks-like-a-quiet-one-for-white-sox

Non-tender Hill, tender Wilson, Tauchman is 50/50

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Non-tender Hill, tender Wilson, Tauchman is 50/50

I think Tauchman is a lock.  The Sox can’t sign another RF as good as Tauchman for $3.4 million, even with his injury issues, and cheap is the key.  If he makes it through Spring Training unscathed, he’s starting in RF on opening day 2026.

Edited October 10 by WhiteSox2023

[Bob Sacamano]

47 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I think Tauchman is a lock.  The Sox can’t sign another RF as good as Tauchman for $3.4 million, even with his injury issues, and cheap is the key.  If he makes it through Spring Training unscathed, he’s starting in RF on opening day 2026.

I think they will hand off the job to Braden at some point though. So I think they'll sign some who can start for like a month, pay cheap (like $1.5M), and is a natural fit against lefties to sub for Benintendi.

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Non-tender Hill, tender Wilson, Tauchman is 50/50

Non tender Hill, please non tender Wilson. 

[WhiteSox2023]

32 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Non tender Hill, please non tender Wilson. 

Hill will be non-tendered.  I think Tauchman and Wilson will be tendered contracts.

Regarding Wilson’s arbitration estimate, $1.5 million is only like twice the league minimum and Getz has to hope he has a great season so he can finally be flipped for the fourth prospect of the Cease trade.  🤣

Edited October 10 by WhiteSox2023

[nrockway]

3 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Non tender Hill, please non tender Wilson. 

$1.5mil for a guy with a 3.42 ERA in 55 IP is a bargain in any setting. 

Luis Garcia had almost exactly the same stats and was paid $4.5mil last year. As did Kyle Finnegan and he was paid $6mil. Andrew "Olive" Kittredge was paid $10mil to post the same numbers. Nick Mears is on the same arbitration scale, will earn $1.6mil next year, pitched to a 3.99 ERA. 

This is far less than the going rate for comparable relief pitchers. It would be a poor baseball decision to non-tender him.

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, nrockway said:

$1.5mil for a guy with a 3.42 ERA in 55 IP is a bargain in any setting. 

Luis Garcia had almost exactly the same stats and was paid $4.5mil last year. As did Kyle Finnegan and he was paid $6mil. Andrew "Olive" Kittredge was paid $10mil to post the same numbers. Nick Mears is on the same arbitration scale, will earn $1.6mil next year, pitched to a 3.99 ERA. 

This is far less than the going rate for comparable relief pitchers. It would be a poor baseball decision to non-tender him.

Every team in the playoffs has had bullpens s%*# the bed and lose games. If these guys, here, know of a hotbed of pitchers who don't give up runs, they should let their favorite team in on the secret. 

[nrockway]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Every team in the playoffs has had bullpens s%*# the bed and lose games. If these guys, here, know of a hotbed of pitchers who don't give up runs, they should let their favorite team in on the secret. 

I'm thinking about Orion Kerkering, who just made a huge mistake on the highest level, but the guy is simply a really good pitcher. The Phillies will be happy to have him back next year.

Wilson at $1.5mil is nothing. He's not a superstar, but he isn't being paid like one either. He's on the exact arbitration scale you would expect. If the Sox non-tendered him (which they obviously won't, no team would), some other team would pick him up and probably for more money in an instant. It's just a weird take. Personal vendetta-ish. He's not expected to be the closer, we recently paid Liam Hendricks 12 times more to fill that role. Wilson was by all metrics an above average reliever last year. 

[WhiteSox2023]

9 hours ago, nrockway said:

I'm thinking about Orion Kerkering, who just made a huge mistake on the highest level, but the guy is simply a really good pitcher. The Phillies will be happy to have him back next year.

Wilson at $1.5mil is nothing. He's not a superstar, but he isn't being paid like one either. He's on the exact arbitration scale you would expect. If the Sox non-tendered him (which they obviously won't, no team would), some other team would pick him up and probably for more money in an instant. It's just a weird take. Personal vendetta-ish. He's not expected to be the closer, we recently paid Liam Hendricks 12 times more to fill that role. Wilson was by all metrics an above average reliever last year. 

You should already know the back story.  This isn’t confusing.  Wilson was the final piece of the Cease trade and was acquired solely to be flipped for additional prospect(s).  He failed miserably after the Sox acquired him in 2024 to the tune of a -0.6 bWAR and was untradeable.

Wilson was then signed for $950K in January of this year which is barely over the minimum.  A month later, Wilson was DFA’ed so the Sox could claim Brandon Eisert off waivers.  Not one team was willing to claim Wilson at only around $200K over the minimum salary.

So while it’s nice that Wilson can now serve a role as a cheap reliever on a non-competitive team, he was acquired to be flipped but he wrecked his own value immediately after coming to the Sox from the Padres.

Meanwhile, Liam Hendriks was a very well paid and good closer on a competitive Sox team.  Not really a good comparison.

Edited October 11 by WhiteSox2023

[Timmy U]

The fact that the Sox have only 3 arbitration guys, like 3 guys under contract and the rest pre-arb is all to the good. The tear down is finally complete and they can start building. I expect them to be very quiet this winter and then they can add payroll after the lockout when they know more clearly what they have. Tearing down the Anderson-Eloy-Moncada core has been one of the most disastrous periods I can remember as a Sox fan, but it does feel like they’re turning a corner.  As to these 3 guys, for sure nontender Hill. They need the roster spot. The other 2? Meh. Insignificant either way in the long term.

[southsider2k5]

It took me a minute to remember who the hell Hill even was.

[nrockway]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

You should already know the back story.  This isn’t confusing.  Wilson was the final piece of the Cease trade and was acquired solely to be flipped for additional prospect(s).  He failed miserably after the Sox acquired him in 2024 to the tune of a -0.6 bWAR and was untradeable.

Wilson was then signed for $950K in January of this year which is barely over the minimum.  A month later, Wilson was DFA’ed so the Sox could claim Brandon Eisert off waivers.  Not one team was willing to claim Wilson at only around $200K over the minimum salary.

So while it’s nice that Wilson can now serve a role as a cheap reliever on a non-competitive team, he was acquired to be flipped but he wrecked his own value immediately after coming to the Sox from the Padres.

Meanwhile, Liam Hendriks was a very well paid and good closer on a competitive Sox team.  Not really a good comparison.

well, the point is simply...why would you non-tender an above average pitcher making next to nothing? feels spiteful because the Cease trade wasn't that hot.

[Lip Man 1]

43 minutes ago, nrockway said:

well, the point is simply...why would you non-tender an above average pitcher making next to nothing? feels spiteful because the Cease trade wasn't that hot.

An "above average" pitcher who was charged with seven blown saves as well as two losses.

I admire your definition of "above average." 

The key point to Sox 2023's story in my opinion was the fact that the Sox DFA'd him, he was making very little in salary yet no other MLB team wanted him.

That should say something in my opinion.

 

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

23 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

An "above average" pitcher who was charged with seven blown saves as well as two losses.

I admire your definition of "above average." 

The key point to Sox 2023's story in my opinion was the fact that the Sox DFA'd him, he was making very little in salary yet no other MLB team wanted him.

That should say something in my opinion.

 

 

Blown saves are a dumb stat for non-closers. 

[WestEddy]

48 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The key point to Sox 2023's story in my opinion was the fact that the Sox DFA'd him, he was making very little in salary yet no other MLB team wanted him.

That should say something in my opinion.

I think a keyer point is that his ERA+ was 123 this season. That's above average. His actual numbers say a lot more than inferences about when he was snuck through waivers. 

[WhiteSox2023]

Getz has about a 90%+ rate at “sneaking” players through waivers because most of the players are bad and no other team wants them.

[nrockway]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

An "above average" pitcher who was charged with seven blown saves as well as two losses.

I admire your definition of "above average." 

The key point to Sox 2023's story in my opinion was the fact that the Sox DFA'd him, he was making very little in salary yet no other MLB team wanted him.

That should say something in my opinion.

 

 

Well, he did have nearly a 6 ERA last season and then returned to his career averages. Who knows what was going on with him but it appears to be an outlier. Relief pitchers are inconsistent anyway, Greg Santos looked like a stud with us and has posted a 5+ ERA since playing for Seattle. A savvy team that needed pitching and thought they could 'fix him' might've picked him up. The Mets probably wish they had him. 

My definition of 'above average' is a reasonable one that many people might look at: earned run average. Specifically ERA+ since it normalizes ERAs to a comparable scale. If '100' is average, Wilson's '123' is literally 'above average'. 8.3 K/9 to 3.6 BB/9 is pretty good. His peripheral numbers are above average. I'm not calling him a stud. I think he's a low leverage arm, hence the 'blown saves' is not really a relevant statistic. Pitchers give up runs sometimes, right? In our team's case, there isn't any run support. Hard to hold onto 2-1 leads on a consistent basis. It might be akin to thinking Garrett Crochet's 6-12 W/L record in 2024 was 'bad'. 

Edited October 11 by nrockway

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Blown saves are a dumb stat for non-closers. 

But when they cost a team wins they are anything but dumb aren't they? 🤔 

If you recall Wilson was asked to close a few times and the results weren't the best plus even as a seventh or eight inning set-up guy he had issues.

Sorry in my mind he just isn't very good. Maybe because the Sox are going to lose 100 games again next year you keep him around but blowing SO many games after the 7th inning and losing when you had the lead,  the past two years, can't be good mentally for the young players.  

Edited October 11 by Lip Man 1

[southsider2k5]

46 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

But when they cost a team wins they are anything but dumb aren't they? 🤔 

If you recall Wilson was asked to close a few times and the results weren't the best plus even as a seventh or eight inning set-up guy he had issues.

Sorry in my mind he just isn't very good. Maybe because the Sox are going to lose 100 games again next year you keep him around but blowing SO many games after the 7th inning and losing when you had the lead,  the past two years, can't be good mentally for the young players.  

That's such a simple approach. If a reliever goes into a game with the bases loaded and no one out and gets the first guy up to roll into a 6-4-3 DP, he gets a blown save.  It's a dumb stat for middle relievers. 

[caulfield12]

Wilson isn't a guy you should trust in high leverage relief.

And the reason nobody else claimed him is that playoff contenders prefer guys with dominant stuff now out of the pen...or at least a unique arm angle, LHP, wipeout slider, etc.

[nrockway]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

But when they cost a team wins they are anything but dumb aren't they? 🤔 

If you recall Wilson was asked to close a few times and the results weren't the best plus even as a seventh or eight inning set-up guy he had issues.

Sorry in my mind he just isn't very good. Maybe because the Sox are going to lose 100 games again next year you keep him around but blowing SO many games after the 7th inning and losing when you had the lead,  the past two years, can't be good mentally for the young players.  

I think it's a reasonable point of view, I also think we have better options for the 7th through 9th in actual close games. Wikelman, Leasure, Taylor. I'd put Wilson firmly below them. Also perhaps some guys who didn't pitch out of the bullpen last year whether due to injury, because they haven't debuted yet or because they might be bumped to the bullpen (Yoendrys, Burke as examples).

I just wouldn't non-tender a useful player if his salary is that low. Hill? No reason to tender. If you want him back, sign him to a MILB contract. The Tauchman debate is interesting. It's also not a lot of money and he was solid last year. But he's getting older, his bat was fading as the season went on, he's bad at defense and he's currently injured. I might rather see Dom Fletcher keeping the RF spot warm for Braden Montgomery. But I'm also not mad if Tauch is back. He's a cool dude to be sure, the young players seem to really like him. 

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, nrockway said:

I think it's a reasonable point of view, I also think we have better options for the 7th through 9th in actual close games. Wikelman, Leasure, Taylor. I'd put Wilson firmly below them. Also perhaps some guys who didn't pitch out of the bullpen last year whether due to injury, because they haven't debuted yet or because they might be bumped to the bullpen (Yoendrys, Burke as examples).

I just wouldn't non-tender a useful player if his salary is that low. Hill? No reason to tender. If you want him back, sign him to a MILB contract. The Tauchman debate is interesting. It's also not a lot of money and he was solid last year. But he's getting older, his bat was fading as the season went on, he's bad at defense and he's currently injured. I might rather see Dom Fletcher keeping the RF spot warm for Braden Montgomery. But I'm also not mad if Tauch is back. He's a cool dude to be sure, the young players seem to really like him. 

Steven Wilson is not an elite arm. He just had a nice year, but still didn't reach the rate numbers he had in SD. Of course he's still a keeper. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Non-tender Wilson and Hill. I'd tender Tauchman, even though I do think the guy is starting to breakdown. He seemed to have a positive influence on the team though, so I'd bring him back. Wilson was already DFA'd by the Sox and they are going to need the space to protect some arms from the R5.

Edited October 11 by CWSpalehoseCWS

[nrockway]

19 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Steven Wilson is not an elite arm. He just had a nice year, but still didn't reach the rate numbers he had in SD. Of course he's still a keeper. 

He's pretty much 'some guy' and I think we'll have a crowded bullpen of useful righties next season, but $1.5mil is nothing based on the comps. If he performs like he did this past season over the first half, he is an easy trade candidate. I really liked the Tanner Banks trade (Bergolla will be an MLB player) and Wilson is simply better at baseball than he is, sans left-handedness. That being said, I think we could really use a guy like Banks next season.